Danish Elections and Politics

[Diouf]

All parties in parliament agreed on an infrastructure plan until 2035. In the plan, the parties have chosen a number of major projects for the next 14 years. Previous political deals already meant projects for 60 bln. kr. in the 2022-2035 period, and the parties in this plan agreed projects for an additional 106 bln. kr. Not all parties agreed on all projects in the plan, but it was decided to unite the projects in one common plan, where the parties will meet a number of times during this time period to take stock of the plan's progress. Of the new projects, 52 bln are investments in roads, 45 bln in rail and 9 bln others.
 
Of the biggest road projects, one could name a new highway in Central Jutland around Viborg, along the so-called "army road" which in previous centuries was the main transport line, an expansion of the Eastern Jutland highway, continuation of the Northern Zealand highway, as well as a tunnel towards the expanding harbour area in Aarhus and a third road across the Limfjord in Aalborg. In terms of rail, the goal is still the so-called "hour model" where train travel between the big cities should only be an hour (Copenhagen -> Odense -> Esbjerg or Aarhus + Aarhus - > Aalborg). The plan is also to electrify the whole railway net. Additionally, there will be a new railway between Aarhus and Silkeborg as well as a number of S-trains in & around Copenhagen being "metrofied" with driverless trains with higher speed.

https://twitter.com/Finansmin/status/1409423626688942080

[Diouf]

The Moderates have starting collecting the necessary 20 182 signatures. And in the first two weeks, the party have already collected 2 171. The Independent Greens are still at a high pace, now up to 14 832, so eligibility looks likely. However, the party's reputation took a hit this week as, unsurprisingly, the culture of sexual harrassment and obscenity, which characterized the Elbæk wing of the party in the Alternative days, is also prevalent in the Independent Greens. The party's chief spin doctor has been forced to resign after it was revealed that he flashed several people at the Folkemøde (a yearly week of politics and lobbyism) at the sunny island of Bornholm

[Diouf]

Conservative MP Naser Khader is currently on sick leave after being overtly aggressive in his pursuit of people disagreeing with him, including often contacting their employer. Now Khader is facing even more serious allegations as five women have accused him of sexual harrassment and assault in the period from 1999-2019. Conservative leader Søren Pape Poulsen stated that the party will now hire a law firm to investigate the cases, and promises that the cases will get the "necessary consequences"

[Diouf]

It's less fun in opposition



The Liberal MP Tommy Ahlers has decided to resign from his seat in parliament after only 3 years in politics. Ahlers was a well-known entrepreneur, mostly within the phone technology business, and one of the investors in the famous TV show Dragon's Den. In 2018, he was quite surprisingly appointed as Minister for Higher Education and Science in the Løkke cabinet. He became one of the more popular ministers, and a key player in the Liberals' appeal to the big cities. In the 2019 election, he ran in the Copenhagen constituency and won 26 420 personal votes, the fifth-highest tally nationwide. There were three Liberals in that top 5, the others being Løkke and Støjberg, and now none of them remains in the Liberal parliamentary group.

The Liberals probably hoped that Ahlers could help them to stay relevant in opposition, and with a job as Spokesperson for Climate might sometimes even be able to hunt the government for being to slow to act. But Ahlers hasn't been very visible since the election. It's probably mostly because he simply isn't that much of a politician, who can or will do the hard work of negotiating for changes in complex legislative packages or hold the government to account in the media or parliamentary meetings. He might also have faced some backlash from the agricultural wing of the Liberals when he has become too urban and climate cool. Ahlers himself says: "The political culture was too strong for me to change it. My competences don't completely match the way politics is made. So I would prefer to use my energy to help green entrepreuners developing their companies, and affecting the World in that way".

Even if Ahlers hasn't played the big role expected in this term, it must still be a blow for Ellemann. Ahlers was one of his most loyal supporters, and one who probably had a very similar world view. First in line to replace him as MP is Michael Lange, who is currently a part of the management in UCB Pharma, but he has yet to say whether he will take up the seat.

[Diouf]

Social Liberal MP resigns from parliament amid inappropriate behaviour



The 30-year old Kristian Hegaard has just announced that he is resigning his seat in parliament. The Social Liberal MP says he is resigning after committing inappropriate behaviour at a recent party. Hegaard says he was so drunk that he can't remember much from the party. A few months ago, he had apparently already received an official warning from the party after a complaint had been made about his inappropriate touching of a fellow party member. After this repeat behaviour, he is therefore now resigning.

So after last year's Østergaard meltdown, another bad case of sexual harassment for the party, which more than any has gone in hard on the #metoo agenda. Hegaard was not a big name back in 2019, when he narrowly won the party's 2nd seat in Northern Zealand with 1 945 personal votes. He has been notable as the first wheelchair-bound member of parliament, but has also done quite well as Spokesperson on Immigration and Justice. Two areas where the Social Liberals are markedly to the left and have significant stances.

First in line to replace him in parliament is Christina Thorholm, a long time local councillor in Hillerød and works at the sheltered residence inspection authority.

[Diouf]

Morten Messerschmidt today received a suspended sentence of six months in the Lower Court in Lyngby. The DPP deputy leader and prominent MP was found guilty in fraud with EU funds as well as forgery of a contract. Messerschmidt has immediatedly appealed the sentence to the High Court. Therefore Messerschmidt will continue his work as MP until the High Court's sentence. If they come to the same conclusion, he will probably lose his prominent position in DPP and it's likely that there will be a vote in parliament to find him unworthy of retaining his seat as MP.
Several of the DPP current and former MPs, including the leadership, witnessed in the trial, and weren't exactly overly supportive of Messerschmidt's case. Particularly the witness of DPP parliamentary group leader Peter Skaarup was seen as critical.

[Diouf]

Minister of Culture resigns: "My energy has dried up"



Today Minister of Culture and Church, Joy Mogensen, decided to resign from her position. She says that her energy has dried up from the events during the last two years; she became a Minister, she lost an unborn child and had additional pressure from covid-handling in relation to the hard-hit cultural sector. She also states that she has difficulties in transfering her skills from local politics onto the national scene. Her best abilities weren't the big visionary debates or handling the media, but to make concrete agreements in negotiations.

Mogensen was Mayor of Roskilde from 2011-2019, before she was quite surprisingly picked to become Minister of Culture and Church in Frederiksen's government. However, she hasn't done very well in the role, and won't be a big miss. She has been criticized and made fun of several times during her tenure. She has been seen as proponent of a "low culture" like when she said Absolute Music vol. 2 was her favourite album because she had heard it a lot as a teenager. There has also been repeated criticism of her covid-handling, where she was seen as not speaking up or caring for the cultural life. At one point in the spring of 2020, she even said that it would be "inappropriate" to talk about culture during a pandemic, which infuriated many in the cultural life, who were waiting for news on how they could get compensated. Just a few days ago, many in the Church criticized her for the tough covid restrictions for churches while most of the rest of the country had been opened up.

In the next day or two, I expect we will found out who the new Minister will be. In 2019, many perhaps expected Mogens Jensen, the long time spokesperson for Culture, to get the post. But he instead ended as Minister of Agriculture, where he was forced to resign after the mink scandal. So it's probably too early for him to get back in the cabinet. If Frederiksen feels like changes are needed in her cabinet, she could use the occasion for a minor reshuffle.

[Diouf]

Mette Frederiksen today presented the new ministers, and she opted for a tiny reshuffle. Ane Halsboe-Jørgensen, until now Minister of Higher Education and Science, has been named Minister of Culture and Church. MP Jesper Petersen takes over her brief as Minister of Higher Education and Science. Halsboe is seen as belonging to the inner circle around Frederiksen, she is line with her idelogically and have been able to promote the government's policies nicely. So her move to Culture and Church is seen as giving the area a higher priority. Petersen is another one of the prominent MPs, who left SPP and joined the Social Democrats during the SPP's difficult term in government. To me, he is perhaps the most annoying of all MPs; a completely vacuous man with little to no inspiring thoughts, but makes sure everyone knows them by repeating them over and over. At least he is seen as loyal, which is probably the main reason for him getting the appointment.

[Diouf]

Conservative MP Naser Khader is currently on sick leave after being overtly aggressive in his pursuit of people disagreeing with him, including often contacting their employer. Now Khader is facing even more serious allegations as five women have accused him of sexual harrassment and assault in the period from 1999-2019. Conservative leader Søren Pape Poulsen stated that the party will now hire a law firm to investigate the cases, and promises that the cases will get the "necessary consequences"

Today, the Conservatives decided to boot out Khader after getting the results of an investigation into the claims. Khader thereby becomes the 13th MP to no longer represent the party they were elected for.  Khader made some quite bizarre statements today to defend himself, including: "It is accusations which are up to 21 years old. The cases all happened before the #metoo movement started. None of the accusations are related to my work in parliament. The examples are all from what you would previously call a person's private life". Khader also states that the internal investigation is ambigious, and that he hasn't been charged with anything. He also says that he is convinced none of the cases will hold up in court, which suggests he will report some or all of the women for libel, a common part of his repetoire.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Khader thereby becomes the 13th MP to no longer represent the party they were elected for. 

How common are expulsions and party-switching in the Folketing?

[Diouf]

Khader thereby becomes the 13th MP to no longer represent the party they were elected for. 

How common are expulsions and party-switching in the Folketing?

See below for party switches. This term has the record. Expulsions are rare, and normally only in instances like this this with bad personal behaviour or perhaps if completely going against the party line repeatedly

Secondly, how common is party switching in Denmark compared to other countries? Ida Auken’s ride through three parties is quite something.

I found the below graph, which shows the number of party switches in Denmark from the 50es until 2015.
It is from this research by Marie Kaldahl Nielsen & Helene Helboe Pedersen:
https://www.djoef-forlag.dk/openaccess/oep/files/2017/3_2017/3_2017_6.pdf

So as it can be seen, there has been an increasing tendency to party shifts. We are at 11 party switches so far in this term, which is record high in modern times. The tendency seem as expected when considering that voters are also switching parties more often now + there are more parties & increased fragmentation.

[Diouf]

Government ends nurse strike



After almost ten weeks of strike by nurses, the government yesterday evening made a deal to end the strike. The government made an agreement with the Liberals, the Social Liberals, the Conservatives, the New Right and the Liberal Alliance to end the strike. The nurses have two times voted against a deal, which their own union made. All other healthcare professions voted yes to the deal, but the nurses hoped to ride on a wave of support after the covid crisis to get an extra pay check bounce. But the agreement to end the strike means that the deal, already rejected by the nurses, will be made into law. This means a pay rise of 5% over three years + a salary commission to look at whether traditional woman's job have been underpaid.

In order for parliament to be able to use the accelerated legislative procedure, a majority of 3/4 in parliament is needed. SPP and the Christian Democrats both voted for allowing the accelerated process, despite being against the government's agreement. Therefore there was a 3/4 majority in favour. They argued that it was important to end the strike due to the effect on the health sector, but that the deal to end the strike should have given the nurses a better deal.

Rarely a really good look for a Social Democrat government to stop a strike among one of their key voter groups, but the strike's effect on the health sector was starting to show. Also the strike has actually garnered less attention than strikes normally do, perhaps due to the Euros + Olympics + Covid. And also with the special situation of the nurses rejecting the deal which all other health professions accepted, it always seemed likely that the outcome would be like this, which meant it wasn't very interesting to cover. The end to the teacher's strike in 2013 caused a huge criticism of the Thorning government. I think they will get through this one in a better way due to the circumstances, but particularly Red-Greens and DPP are rolling out the tough attacks.

[Diouf]

In DPP, the internal divisions have again become public, and again it's due to ex-MP and executive committee member Martin Henriksen. In a presentation to the local DPP chapter in Hjørring, Henriksen states that there is an infight going on in the party and that two wings are battling it out. He says that some wants the party to moderate its immigration policy and get nearer the other parties, while his wing wants the party to harden its line on immigration, e.g. by starting with mass scale deportations from ghetto areas. In an Jyllands-Posten interview, Henriksen heats up his criticism of MEP Peter Kofod, ex-MEP Anders Vistisen and DPP Youth leader Tobias Weische, all three fellow members of the exceutive committee. Henriksen states that "some people think I should act as a litte lamb, and just accept people saying my line is not welcome in the party. I'm not like that as a person. If people attack me, I answer".

Henriksen received support by another executive committee member, the regional councillor Erik Høgh-Sørensen, but most of the big names in the party have come out hard against Henriksen. Prominent MP Søren Espersen states that Henriksen's criticism of the current party line is a cruel and unacceptable attack against Pia Kjærsgaard, the party's ex-leader and current spokesperson on immigration. Kjærsgaard herself says that "there are no wings in DPP. And if there are wings, then Martin Henriksen represents a tiny winy wing which I haven't heard anything from". Thulesen Dahl himself agrees that there are no wing wars in the party nor the parliamentary group, that the party's line on immigration is stable and correct, and that it's counterproductive with public criticism like Henriksen did.

The party's conference is on 18-19. september, and it sounds like it could be a heated one. I think the party leadership will try to get Henriksen out of the executive committee. Henriksen is exactly not one to go out quietly, and we will get a test of how much support he has among the party delegates.

In the Social Liberals, there are new behaviour problems. The most woke of all Danish elected representatives at all levels, MEP Karen Melchior is facing allegations of frequent anger attacks and creating a horrible working environment for her employees. All the employees starting with her in 2019 have now left, and they describe her as "unbearable, choleric and snide". It was also revealed that on one occasion she has had to intercepted by airport police because she was trying to walk onto a plane which she was not allowed to board. She says that she was "frustated, hungry and acting stupid".

[Diouf]

The Moderates have starting collecting the necessary 20 182 signatures. And in the first two weeks, the party have already collected 2 171. The Independent Greens are still at a high pace, now up to 14 832, so eligibility looks likely. However, the party's reputation took a hit this week as, unsurprisingly, the culture of sexual harrassment and obscenity, which characterized the Elbæk wing of the party in the Alternative days, is also prevalent in the Independent Greens. The party's chief spin doctor has been forced to resign after it was revealed that he flashed several people at the Folkemøde (a yearly week of politics and lobbyism) at the sunny island of Bornholm

The Moderates are already up at 14 257 signatures, so Løkke's party is clearly on pace for eligibility. The Independent Greens are at 16.535, so they still look like they are gonna make it, even if the pace has gone down somewhat and Løkke will probably get to the finish line before them.

[Jens]

The Moderates have starting collecting the necessary 20 182 signatures. And in the first two weeks, the party have already collected 2 171. The Independent Greens are still at a high pace, now up to 14 832, so eligibility looks likely. However, the party's reputation took a hit this week as, unsurprisingly, the culture of sexual harrassment and obscenity, which characterized the Elbæk wing of the party in the Alternative days, is also prevalent in the Independent Greens. The party's chief spin doctor has been forced to resign after it was revealed that he flashed several people at the Folkemøde (a yearly week of politics and lobbyism) at the sunny island of Bornholm

The Moderates are already up at 14 257 signatures, so Løkke's party is clearly on pace for eligibility. The Independent Greens are at 16.535, so they still look like they are gonna make it, even if the pace has gone down somewhat and Løkke will probably get to the finish line before them.

I agree. Both parties will probably gain enough signatures, so it looks like 14 parties running at the next parliamentary election, the most since the 80’s. It’s going to be interesting to see the first polls that includes Moderaterne.

[njwes]

Where does the Conservative People's Party fall on the europhillic-euroskeptic spectrum?

[Diouf]

Where does the Conservative People's Party fall on the europhillic-euroskeptic spectrum?

Largely in line with the other pro-EU parties. A bit more talk about sovereignty, defence ect., and rhetorical willingness to talk against ECHR etc., but in practice there wouldn't be much difference to see with a Conservative lead government in the relation to EU.

[Jens]

Where does the Conservative People's Party fall on the europhillic-euroskeptic spectrum?

Largely in line with the other pro-EU parties. A bit more talk about sovereignty, defence ect., and rhetorical willingness to talk against ECHR etc., but in practice there wouldn't be much difference to see with a Conservative lead government in the relation to EU.

True - but in the youth organization, there is a strong anit-EU minority, but they have no power in the mother party, because the business orgs are very pro EU

[njwes]

Thanks both of you!

[Jens]

Moderaterne, the party of former PM, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, has managed to collect 20.000 signatures and are now ready to run in the next parliamentary election.
Frie Grønne is close but not there yet. If they also manage to collect the necessary signatures, it will be the election with the most parties running since the 80’s - since them is has become much harder to secure the needed signatures. 

[Diouf]

DPP rebel re-elected to executive committee with strong support

The ex-MP Martin Henriksen was re-elected to the party's executive committee with strong support despite his recent public attacks on the moderate wing in the party. His public attacks drew criticism from most of the DPP leadership.
Henriksen received support from 272 delegates among the 636 voting at the party congress, so had support from 42,7% of the delegates. The DPP executive committee consists of 11 members, the 5 members of the parliamentary leadership, 5 members elected on the party congress and the leader of DPP Youth. 3 of the 5 members were up for election on this year's congress. Up for re-election was Martin Henriksen and his even more radical supporter Erik Høgh-Sørensen + ex-MEP Anders Vistisen from the moderate wing. Each of the 636 delegates could vote for two candidates.

Martin Henriksen became the topscorer with 272 votes, while his associate Høgh-Sørensen only received 99 votes and lost his seat. Anders Vistisen received 199 votes and also lost his seat, just two votes from getting the third seat. Instead Jens Vornøe, leader of DPP Copenhagen, and ex-MP Merete Dea Larsen won the two remaining seats.

A bit of a mixed result for DPP leader Thulesen Dahl. He is probably quite happy that Vistisen is out, since he and MEP Peter Kofod have been very ambitious and seen as those pushing the hardest for a new leadership. Vistisen even openly ran on the platform of promoting Kofod to 2nd deputy leader instead of a close Thulesen Dahl ally. Vistisen also played to the membership with an thinly veiled attack on Thulelsen Dahl and Peter Skaarup for their witness statements against Morten Messerschmidt at his court trial. But the DPP leader would probably have preferred to see Henriksen out as well. Henriksen's attack on the party line creates unrest in public, and it's hard to see him tone down his style too much after this support. Also Vornøe has actively encouraged Pia Kjærsgaard to take over the leadership of the party again to get things under control.

I think Dea Larsen was the most impressive of the speakers. Interesting to see whether she wants and can rise further in the party. She was an MP from 2015-2019 but without getting any high-profile positions and has been a local councillor for several years. She also seems like she is on fairly good terms with both wings, perhaps leaning a bit towards the radical wing.

Former leader Pia Kjærsgaard was visible enraged by Henriksen and Høgh-Sørensen's speeches. Just look at her reaction in the clip below as Henriksen attacks the current line, and warns that the party is on the road to public indifference.
https://twitter.com/hansersej/status/1439218268208869376

If the party gets the expected poor local and regional election in november, the question is whether the party will see another round of internal fighting, and perhaps movement around the leadership position.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

DPP rebel re-elected to executive committee with strong support

The ex-MP Martin Henriksen was re-elected to the party's executive committee with strong support despite his recent public attacks on the moderate wing in the party. His public attacks drew criticism from most of the DPP leadership.
Henriksen received support from 272 delegates among the 636 voting at the party congress, so had support from 42,7% of the delegates. The DPP executive committee consists of 11 members, the 5 members of the parliamentary leadership, 5 members elected on the party congress and the leader of DPP Youth. 3 of the 5 members were up for election on this year's congress. Up for re-election was Martin Henriksen and his even more radical supporter Erik Høgh-Sørensen + ex-MEP Anders Vistisen from the moderate wing. Each of the 636 delegates could vote for two candidates.

Martin Henriksen became the topscorer with 272 votes, while his associate Høgh-Sørensen only received 99 votes and lost his seat. Anders Vistisen received 199 votes and also lost his seat, just two votes from getting the third seat. Instead Jens Vornøe, leader of DPP Copenhagen, and ex-MP Merete Dea Larsen won the two remaining seats.

A bit of a mixed result for DPP leader Thulesen Dahl. He is probably quite happy that Vistisen is out, since he and MEP Peter Kofod have been very ambitious and seen as those pushing the hardest for a new leadership. Vistisen even openly ran on the platform of promoting Kofod to 2nd deputy leader instead of a close Thulesen Dahl ally. Vistisen also played to the membership with an thinly veiled attack on Thulelsen Dahl and Peter Skaarup for their witness statements against Morten Messerschmidt at his court trial. But the DPP leader would probably have preferred to see Henriksen out as well. Henriksen's attack on the party line creates unrest in public, and it's hard to see him tone down his style too much after this support. Also Vornøe has actively encouraged Pia Kjærsgaard to take over the leadership of the party again to get things under control.

I think Dea Larsen was the most impressive of the speakers. Interesting to see whether she wants and can rise further in the party. She was an MP from 2015-2019 but without getting any high-profile positions and has been a local councillor for several years. She also seems like she is on fairly good terms with both wings, perhaps leaning a bit towards the radical wing.

Former leader Pia Kjærsgaard was visible enraged by Henriksen and Høgh-Sørensen's speeches. Just look at her reaction in the clip below as Henriksen attacks the current line, and warns that the party is on the road to public indifference.
https://twitter.com/hansersej/status/1439218268208869376

If the party gets the expected poor local and regional election in november, the question is whether the party will see another round of internal fighting, and perhaps movement around the leadership position.

Do I understand correctly that it's unusual for internal DPP strife to be this public?

[Diouf]

Do I understand correctly that it's unusual for internal DPP strife to be this public?

Yes, this basically never happened before the election defeat starting coming in recent years. They were known as a very top-driven party with heavy-handed handling of public detractors.

[Diouf]

New poll by Voxmeter, and the first after all the buzz about the Moderates becoming eligible. The party is not officially approved to run yet, so they are still in the others category. But that category has increased from 2.3% to 4.7% in this poll, suggesting that Løkke is drawing a lot of that support. Once actual polling of Moderate voters come in, we will start go get a feeling of where they are coming from. In this poll, Liberals and Social Liberals take a hit; probably also two of the parties you would expect to lose from this. Also the other centrist party, Christian Democrats, further from the 2% than in a while.

[Diouf]

YouGov doesn't really care about the formal rules about whether a party is eligible or not, so they have conducted a poll in recent days for BT with the Moderates as an individual option.
The poll has the party on 4.5%, but the other party results are even more remarkable. Liberals at 9.4%, Conservatives at 17.0%. Also here Social Liberals (4.4%) and Christian Democrats (1.1%) are quite low. And the four parties in the governing majority only gets 49.3%. There is then a wasted 1.0% for the Alternative, and perhaps a wasted decimal for the Vegans (who aren't shown)

https://www.bt.dk/politik/loekke-i-vildt-comeback-stormer-ind-i-folketinget

However, it should be remebered that YouGov have big house effects, and they were the least accurate of the main polling companies in 2019. And also this poll comes during some days with a fair bit of focus on Løkke and the Moderates.

https://politologi.dk/meningsmaalinger/huseffekter/

Another recent poll gave great news to Søren Pape as well.
In a Megafon poll for TV2, voters could give up to three answers to the question of the most trustworthy party leader. 53% said Søren Pape, 38% Mette Frederiksen, and 33% for her Little Helper Pia Olsen Dyhr. Jakob Ellemann was all the way down at 17%; the same score received by Vanopslagh, Løkke and Vermund. Villadsen at 16%, Arendt at 13%, Thulesen Dahl at 12%, Carsten Nielsen at 6% and Rosenkilde at 2%.

https://nyheder.tv2.dk/politik/2021-09-16-her-er-landets-mest-trovaerdige-partileder-og-en-der-ligger-katastrofalt