Danish Elections and Politics

[Estrella]

While Krarup says the impeachment case was handled as it should be, he says "it shouldn't be so that everyone without Social Liberal tendencies should be stoned".

Random question, but did use the word Radikal or are you translating it literally? Is the Danish equivalent of "social-liberal" used as an ideological descriptor? More broadly, what connotations does the word "liberal" have in Denmark? Like, do Social Liberals or Liberal Alliance or, say, New Right explicitly talk about themselves as liberal in some sense?

[Diouf]

While Krarup says the impeachment case was handled as it should be, he says "it shouldn't be so that everyone without Social Liberal tendencies should be stoned".

Random question, but did use the word Radikal or are you translating it literally? Is the Danish equivalent of "social-liberal" used as an ideological descriptor? More broadly, what connotations does the word "liberal" have in Denmark? Like, do Social Liberals or Liberal Alliance or, say, New Right explicitly talk about themselves as liberal in some sense?

He used the word radikal in both instances.
"En ting er, om der skal rejses en rigsretssag mod Inger Støjberg. Jeg synes, formanden har håndteret den sag, som han skulle. Men derfor behøver det jo ikke være sådan, at hvis vi ikke alle sammen har småradikale tendenser, så skal vi stenes. Sådan skal det ikke være"

"Jeg må så også bare sige til nogle af dem, der har travlt med at hjælpe med at forme Venstre lige nu, at man skal passe på med at gøre partiet til sådan et radikalt light parti, fortæller Lars Krarup. Han udtaler ordet ’hjælpe’ på en måde, så man forstår, at det nok ikke skal forstås bogstaveligt."

I think socialliberal is a fairly normal ideological descriptor in Denmark. So in a neutral analysis, you could often come across that term for describing the Radikale/Social Liberal party as well as tendencies within other parties. I think, they could easily use that term in the Social Liberals themselves along with humanist, green etc. When centre-right politicians or commentators use Radikal to describe tendencies within a centre-right party that is often used in a pejorative sense, which is of course also the case here. A slightly less bad version is storbyliberal(cityliberal). About the Liberals, there has also often been talk about højskoleVenstre(folk high school Liberals) vs. handelshøjskoleVenstre (business school Liberals).

And yes, liberal is fairly common term, which the parties can easily use about themselves. Normally, it will probably mostly be Liberals and Liberal Alliance, who will use it to describe themselves, their party and their policies. So meaning policies where economic policies lean towards lower taxes and lower public spending, and free choice in the public sector etc. And as a fairly standard descriptor of one's basic view, like conservative, social democrat or socialist. Conservatives and New Right will probably more use the term borgerlig when talking about f.ex. tax cut and general economic policy. If the left wing parties would use, it would probably mostly be in a term like liberale frihedsrettigheder, which is basically freedom rights or human rights.

[Diouf]

Støjberg ended her speech at the extraordinary congress with another tease: "The values the Liberals have held high in all these years. The values I've grown up with. The values I will always fight for. No matter where I am, and no matter what happens". The speech focused on Støjberg's history in the party with a strong emphasis on how real of a Liberal she was, and how she was in sync with the people in Jutland and says things like they are, even though the politically correct persons in Copenhagen, including the media, don't like it. She also stated there can never be a Liberal-led government based on the Social Liberals, it requires 90 borgerlige(Blue) seats to get such a government. Therefore, she also emphaiszes the need for strong bonds, politically and personally, to the other Blue parties. In a short interview afterwards, Støjberg said that she is still considering her future.

[Diouf]

Jens Rohde leaves Social Liberals - can't live with their activism and identity politics



Today MP Jens Rohde announced that he is leaving the Social Liberals. He argues that the party has moved away from a centrist, pragmatic and holistic approach to politics in favour of a position of never-ending activist campaigning. Rohde was one of the MPs who voted for Martin Lidegaard to lead the party after Morten Østergaard's #meetoo fall from grace. Lidegaard similarly argued for a more centrist position, so the party could return to its traditional, influential role in the centre of Danish politics. The current party leadership leaked his departure early to Ekstra Bladet, and claims Rohde is impossible to work with. They also say that Rohde has continued to work on an independent media policy despite being told repeatedly that the party was not in favour of his idea of introducing a new media tax in order to give existing media a big boost in state support due to the tough competition from big tech.

In his resignation post on Facebook, Rohde says that the party has lost its pragmatic roots. He mentions climate policy as an example, where he states that not every Dane can cycle to work, even if you hammer the car industry with green taxes: "People won't start living green, just because you make them insolvent". Similarly, he says he won't participate in throwing Danish agriculture under the bus as it's one of the greenest agricultural industries in the World. On #metoo, he believes the party has gone all-in on a style of feminism, which violates standard rule of law principles. Finally on immigration, he says the party has moved into a no-mans land by placing itself in its own corner of the World: "Even the New Right is more likely to end up in a government than the Social Liberals". He warns the party against becoming an activist Greta Thunberg party with prayer meetings. There is a need for a substantial center, which builds up instead of tearing down.

Jens Rohde was a MP for the Liberals from 1998-2006, and after the centre-right victory in 2001, he was a prominent face as the political spokesperson for the biggest government party. He was elected a MEP in 2009 for the Liberals, and re-elected in 2014. In 2014, he played a significant role in the revolt against Lars Løkke. He publicly critized Løkke for his expenses scandals and said that he would never lent Løkke the keys to his house. He also said that Løkke was leading the party on a DPP light strategy, and that it would be better if Kristian Jensen replaced him. Therefore, he was of course quite unhappy when Løkke survived. In late 2015, Rohde left the Liberals due to concerns over the tough immigration policies and their increased EU-scepticism; instead he joined the Social Liberals. He was elected a MP for the Social Liberals in the Copenhagen multi-member constituency in 2019.

Rohde's analysis of the World sounds eerily similar to that of Løkke, but as mentioned above, they have not had the best relationship historically. So despite the similarities in goal and analysis, it would be surprising to see them together. Could he return to the Liberals then? As long as Støjberg, who is funnily Rohde's ex-girlfriend from the early days in youth politics, is still in the party, it is hard to imagine. But if she and others from the tough on immigration wing leaves, I would think he will find Ellemann's leadership inspiring. Then the question is whether Ellemann really wants to send that signal by allowing Rohde back into the party, as Ellemann currently protests quite loudly against any notion that he is not in favour of a tough immigration policy.

[Diouf]

Agreement reached on mink compensation

Tonight the government made an agreement with the Liberals, Social Liberals, SPP and Liberal Alliance to compensate the mink industry which has been outlawed in Denmark for a couple of years amid a covid-mutation scare in the fall. The total cost of the compensation is expected to be the heavy fee of between 15.6-18.8 billion DKK. The direct compensation for the slaughtered mink is expected to be 1.8-2.8 billion DKK, and then 8.9 billion DKK will go to cover the loss of potential future income until 2030 + cover debt. 3-4 billion DKK will go to the related industry, i.e. fodder companies, fur manufacturers etc. Finally 1.5-2.7 billion DKK will go to cover the costs of tearing down the farmers' mink related buildings. The the deal also includes some minor issues of 50 million DKK to new forests and to increase the use of organic food plus 250 million DKK for a month more where unemployed's persons benefits does not count towards the two year maximum where you can get unemployment benefits. This sounds like issues SPP got into the deal to agree it and ensure such a broad deal.

The Red-Green Alliance thinks the deal is too expensive, the Conservatives, DPP and New Right think a bigger effort should have been made to make it possible to re-start the mink industry at some point instead of paying compensation. The original order to the mink farmers to slaugther all mink was illegal. It immediately meant that the relevant minister Mogens Jensen had to resign, and an investigative commission will soon start to look further into the decision, and whether one or more ministers, including Mette Frederiksen, could have committed impeachable offences.

[Diouf]

Ida Auken leaves Social Liberals - join Social Democrats



After being on sick leave with stress since April 2020, MP Ida Auken today returned to parliament with a bang as she announced she's leaving the Social Liberals and joining the Social Democrats. Auken was, like Rohde, a supporter of Martin Lidegaard in the leadership election. Her explanation for leaving the Social Liberals is also similar to that of Rohde. Auken states that "When I joined the Social Liberals seven years ago, I knew the party as a pragmatic, resultoriented party. My experience is that the Social Liberals have moved away from that approach, and therefore also moved away from the center of Danish politics". Auken won 21.733 personal votes in the Copenhagen constituency in 2019, the tenth highest in the country and the most of any Social Liberal.

Ida Auken started her career in SPP, where her mother Margrethe Auken is still a prominent member and long-time MEP. She was elected a MP in 2007 and was a part of the many young talents surging in a SPP, that was on its way to become ready for government. She became Minister of Environment in 2011. However, SPP had its problems in handling government responsibility. In 2014, when the party melted down, many of the young generation left the SPP to join the Social Democrats. However, Auken was not really a part of that "workerite" line of thinking, which many of these SPPers had made mainstream in the party and brought into the Social Democrats. Instead, Auken's focus has always been climate and environment, which is probably why she as the only prominent SPP defector joined Social Liberals instead.

So now, seven years later, she does end up in the Social Democrats. In some sense, Auken has been a bit unlucky. She joined the Social Liberals only a few months before the departure of their leader Margrethe Vestager, who had been quite moderate in her appearance and with an extreme focus on economic responsibility and centrist compromises. The new leadership with Morten Østergaard and Sofie Carsten Nielsen has led the party more along an activist way with a lot of focus on lenint immigration policies, and thereby away from the political middle. Ironically, SPP has moved the other way and has moved very close to Social Democrats as a very loyal and responsible support party. I actually think she would be a better fit for the current SPP than the Social Democrats; my feeling is not that she is on the Social Democrat line on immigration and probably would prefer the somewhat more ambitious climate policies in SPP. But a return would probably be too weird, and while SPP could get ministerial jobs again, the Social Democrats is of course a safer bet if you should have that ambition.

Quite a hit for the Social Liberals with two prominent defections in a week. And the obvious question is whether defeated leadership candidate Martin Lidegaard will follow suit now that two of his strongest supporters have given up and left the party. It will be interesting to see whether the Social Liberals will continue the more vote-maximizing style of activist and far-left immigration policies, or whether defections like these makes the leadership re-consider and steer back towards a policy which you could enter government with.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Quite a hit for the Social Liberals with two prominent defections in a week. And the obvious question is whether defeated leadership candidate Martin Lidegaard will follow suit now that two of his strongest supporters have given up and left the party. It will be interesting to see whether the Social Liberals will continue the more vote-maximizing style of activist and far-left immigration policies, or whether defections like these makes the leadership re-consider and steer back towards a policy which you could enter government with.

That's weird I thought the social liberals were an economically centerist party with pro-busniesss immigration stance, what exactly is so radical about their stance on immigration ? and how is it getting them votes ?

[Diouf]

That's weird I thought the social liberals were an economically centerist party with pro-busniesss immigration stance, what exactly is so radical about their stance on immigration ? and how is it getting them votes ?

Yes, they want to significantly increase the influx of foreign labour, but they also want to loosen immigration/refugee policy significantly. Things like participating in the EU distribution of refugees, increase the UN quota refugees, increase benefits for newly arrived migrants, take back Danish citizens from the ISIS camps, let refused asylum seekers with children live outside deportation centres, turn back the so-called paradigm shift which aimed to get refugees to return home by giving temporary refugee status, make it easier to get Danish citizenship etc.

In the 2019 campaign, they also were perhaps the party which focused the most on Rasmus Paludan's Hard Line. As other parties mostly ignored his antics, Social Liberals were eager to act as their counterparts. The lenient immigration policies certainly have an audience, especially among younger, urban voters, but they have made the party toxic for the average voter. This was why the Social Democrats were so adamant that they weren't going to get into a coalition with them, and why it's not a positive thing when Ellemann is seen by some as a semi-Social Liberal. The lenient immigration politicis also helped the party massively increase its vote shared in the most immigrant-heavy areas:

https://nyheder.tv2.dk/politik/2019-06-07-radikale-stormer-frem-i-landets-ghetto-omraader

[Alcibiades]

That's weird I thought the social liberals were an economically centerist party with pro-busniesss immigration stance, what exactly is so radical about their stance on immigration ? and how is it getting them votes ?

Yes, they want to significantly increase the influx of foreign labour, but they also want to loosen immigration/refugee policy significantly. Things like participating in the EU distribution of refugees, increase the UN quota refugees, increase benefits for newly arrived migrants, take back Danish citizens from the ISIS camps, let refused asylum seekers with children live outside deportation centres, turn back the so-called paradigm shift which aimed to get refugees to return home by giving temporary refugee status, make it easier to get Danish citizenship etc.

In the 2019 campaign, they also were perhaps the party which focused the most on Rasmus Paludan's Hard Line. As other parties mostly ignored his antics, Social Liberals were eager to act as their counterparts. The lenient immigration policies certainly have an audience, especially among younger, urban voters, but they have made the party toxic for the average voter. This was why the Social Democrats were so adamant that they weren't going to get into a coalition with them, and why it's not a positive thing when Ellemann is seen by some as a semi-Social Liberal. The lenient immigration politicis also helped the party massively increase its vote shared in the most immigrant-heavy areas:

https://nyheder.tv2.dk/politik/2019-06-07-radikale-stormer-frem-i-landets-ghetto-omraader

A couple of questions:

First, aren’t the Social Liberals actually a bit down in the polls at the moment from their previous election result? I know this far out polls might not mean too much, but do you think they are actually going to see an upsurge in support? I could imagine that being unapologetically pro-immigration could carve themselves out a nice electoral niche with votes from both young cosmopolitan types and immigrant communities.

Secondly, how common is party switching in Denmark compared to other countries? Ida Auken’s ride through three parties is quite something.

[Diouf]

A couple of questions:

First, aren’t the Social Liberals actually a bit down in the polls at the moment from their previous election result? I know this far out polls might not mean too much, but do you think they are actually going to see an upsurge in support? I could imagine that being unapologetically pro-immigration could carve themselves out a nice electoral niche with votes from both young cosmopolitan types and immigrant communities.

Politologi.dk recently published this chart of their polling since February 2020. Their polling was mostly at, or slightly below, their 8.6% result from 2019. They actually had a little peak going on, perhaps getting some Alternative votes after the party imploded. But then with corona, they lost a bit of ground as Social Democrats surged. However, they were stable and seen to be doing pretty well. Until the #metoo scandal around Morten Østergaard blew up, and he was dramatically forced to resign. The party halved over night. It has then rebounded around half of that drop, but the recent unrest has seen them starting to fall again.
I don't think I would expect a surge from the 8.6% in a World without the #metoo scandal. But the 8.6% was a really good result, and very close to be enough for being the third biggest party. And yes, I do indeed see that combination as a quite fruitful niche to follow. For vote-maximizing that could be a good coalition, but since the views of these voters are generally far away from the median voter, it means that their chances of government is much reduced. And Social Liberals have historically prided themselves as the responsible government party. Jens Rohde said that New Right has a bigger chance of a joining a government now than Social Liberals, which might be slightly hyperbolic, but not much.

Secondly, how common is party switching in Denmark compared to other countries? Ida Auken’s ride through three parties is quite something.

I don't have any good overview of the numbers or comparison to other countries. This period has been very hectic in that regard so far, probably even more than the hectic 2007-2011 and 2011-2015 sessions. But there have also been terms like 2015-2019, or the 2001-2007 period, where I don't believe there were many swtiches. I think party switches would certainly be more likely in fair, proportional systems as there will be several parties in parliament, and the distance between some of them won't be that big, as opposed to two-party systems where a party switch would be a huge move. Additionally, the open-list system, which all but Red-Green Alliance use, might also lead to more party switching. In closed list systems (Italy probably exception), the party leadership should be able to reward loyalty, while in open-list systems, it will be more likely with MPs from different fractions, especially in the traditional parties where local member organizations can decide who runs. Finally, a 2% threshold also means that many switchers, and certainly prominent ones like Uffe Elbæk or Lars Løkke Rasmussen, could realistically see themselves build a succesful start-up.

[Diouf]

Inger Støjberg leaves the Liberals

After weeks of open warfare with Jakob Ellemann and the rest of the Liberal leadership, Inger Støjberg today announced that she's leaving the Liberals. Støjberg said that "The Liberal leadership is swiftly moving away from the values for which I have always fought, and which the party used to represent". She warns that the World will soon face another giant wave of migration, which requires a tougher policy on immigration, including considering how to deal with the UN conventions. She states that this cannot be done with Ellemann as leader, and that she does not think he will become PM. She sends another love letter to the Liberal rank-and-file by saying that the Liberal base still is a robust bunch with the right values, and that it is the Christiansborg-Liberals that has made her leave. She also criticizes the party's support for proposing CO2 taxes, which will hurt Danish agriculture and small businesses. This will destroy the balance between cities and rural areas. On #metoo, she says the party leadership has become crazy and lives in a Copenhagen media world, where a awkward flirt 20 years ago can cost a man his job. "I might be the first woman losing her position due to #metoo", she says.

Interesting to follow the development. Will any of the 8 Liberal MPs, who voted against impeachment, follow her out of the party? And how many in the local party organizations will leave? And will the Liberals fall further in the opinion polls?

[Nortexius]

Are there any plans to form a new party led by Stöjberg? All the speculation i've seen in danish media are about her either joining DF or NB.

[Diouf]

Are there any plans to form a new party led by Stöjberg? All the speculation i've seen in danish media are about her either joining DF or NB.

I think speculation about a new party has entered the fray somewhat when she decided to leave the Liberals, and not join another party right away. I agree that it's been a bit weird that all the focus has been on DPP and New Right; perhaps it's because these two parties have tried so aggressively to court her. Their interviews, social media etc. have been filled with praise of Støjberg. Therefore many commentators have talked about it as a pivotal moment in the fight for hegemony on the anti-immigrant right. The one who gets Støjberg wins, the other falters. However, Støjberg has talked so much about how she's a Liberal (the party, not ideology) into the bone, and how much the party means to her. So with that it mind, it might be an easier step to make your "own version of the Liberals" than to join another party. As a Støjberg voter in 2019, I certainly hope she makes her own party. I was very encouraged when she mentioned attitudes to the UN conventions as the first thing when asked about her differences to the Liberal leadership in an interview yesterday. A party that is basically the Liberals + wants to abandon UN conventions on immigration and asylum would basically be the optimal party for me. But of course it takes a whole lot more work to build a new party.

Another Liberal defector, Lars Løkke, is starting to build up the infrastructure of his partynetwork. A board has been chosen, primarily with some of his business associates. 13 426 persons have joined the network so far. In a newsletter to the members, Løkke writes that many of the members have "an explicit ambition to create a party of reason, which combines idealism and pragmatism". Løkke then go on to states that he will do his best to ensure that those expectations do not end in disappointment.

[ingemann]

Are there any plans to form a new party led by Stöjberg? All the speculation i've seen in danish media are about her either joining DF or NB.

Unlikely she have very little to gain by forming a new party and there is not really a open niche for her political platform. DF and NB would also love to get her, when most politicians make a new party, it’s either because they’re unwelcome in other parties or because they see a open niche for their party. If we look at Støjberg purely ideological there’s plenty of politicians in parliament who are pretty much the same place as her. Tesfaye is more economic left wing, but the main difference in integration politics is simply that he’s not a ***hole.

[crals]

Are there any plans to form a new party led by Stöjberg? All the speculation i've seen in danish media are about her either joining DF or NB.

I think speculation about a new party has entered the fray somewhat when she decided to leave the Liberals, and not join another party right away. I agree that it's been a bit weird that all the focus has been on DPP and New Right; perhaps it's because these two parties have tried so aggressively to court her. Their interviews, social media etc. have been filled with praise of Støjberg. Therefore many commentators have talked about it as a pivotal moment in the fight for hegemony on the anti-immigrant right. The one who gets Støjberg wins, the other falters. However, Støjberg has talked so much about how she's a Liberal (the party, not ideology) into the bone, and how much the party means to her. So with that it mind, it might be an easier step to make your "own version of the Liberals" than to join another party. As a Støjberg voter in 2019, I certainly hope she makes her own party. I was very encouraged when she mentioned attitudes to the UN conventions as the first thing when asked about her differences to the Liberal leadership in an interview yesterday. A party that is basically the Liberals + wants to abandon UN conventions on immigration and asylum would basically be the optimal party for me. But of course it takes a whole lot more work to build a new party.

Another Liberal defector, Lars Løkke, is starting to build up the infrastructure of his partynetwork. A board has been chosen, primarily with some of his business associates. 13 426 persons have joined the network so far. In a newsletter to the members, Løkke writes that many of the members have "an explicit ambition to create a party of reason, which combines idealism and pragmatism". Løkke then go on to states that he will do his best to ensure that those expectations do not end in disappointment.

If I may ask, why do you think Denmark needs even tougher migration policies?

[Diouf]

If I may ask, why do you think Denmark needs even tougher migration policies?

I mean, it's not really a political debate forum, but I have shortly answered it below here:

The two biggest issues are the difficulty in deporting criminal immigrants + the asylum system. Too often, repeat criminals and criminals which commit serious crime cannot be sentenced to deportation "due to Denmark's international obligations", which is UN conventions and ECHR. The asylum system works terrible and has all the wrong incentives. It should only be possible to seek asylum in Denmark if you are fleeing areas, which are neighbours or where Denmark is the first safe country. For all others, it shouldn't be possible to seek asylum in Denmark. The possibility to seek asylum for everyone creates the incentive for people to cross through Europe to get to the places with the best living conditions and/or relatives and communities. That is especially bad for the big group of economic migrants, whose asylum requests are rejected, but who are then very difficult and expensive to get to leave the country. And even for real refugees, it means there will never be talk of just temporary stay for people in need; it will almost always lead to permanent stay even when the situation in the home country has improved. Again, UN conventions and ECHR seem to be the biggest barriers to a sensible asylum system.

[crals]

If I may ask, why do you think Denmark needs even tougher migration policies?

I mean, it's not really a political debate forum, but I have shortly answered it below here:

The two biggest issues are the difficulty in deporting criminal immigrants + the asylum system. Too often, repeat criminals and criminals which commit serious crime cannot be sentenced to deportation "due to Denmark's international obligations", which is UN conventions and ECHR. The asylum system works terrible and has all the wrong incentives. It should only be possible to seek asylum in Denmark if you are fleeing areas, which are neighbours or where Denmark is the first safe country. For all others, it shouldn't be possible to seek asylum in Denmark. The possibility to seek asylum for everyone creates the incentive for people to cross through Europe to get to the places with the best living conditions and/or relatives and communities. That is especially bad for the big group of economic migrants, whose asylum requests are rejected, but who are then very difficult and expensive to get to leave the country. And even for real refugees, it means there will never be talk of just temporary stay for people in need; it will almost always lead to permanent stay even when the situation in the home country has improved. Again, UN conventions and ECHR seem to be the biggest barriers to a sensible asylum system.

Thank you! I apologize if it was off-topic.

[Diouf]

Secondly, how common is party switching in Denmark compared to other countries? Ida Auken’s ride through three parties is quite something.

I found the below graph, which shows the number of party switches in Denmark from the 50es until 2015.
It is from this research by Marie Kaldahl Nielsen & Helene Helboe Pedersen:
https://www.djoef-forlag.dk/openaccess/oep/files/2017/3_2017/3_2017_6.pdf

So as it can be seen, there has been an increasing tendency to party shifts. We are at 11 party switches so far in this term, which is record high in modern times. The tendency seem as expected when considering that voters are also switching parties more often now + there are more parties & increased fragmentation.

[Diouf]

Five candidates have announced a run for leader of the Alternative.

By far the most prominent of them is Franciska Rosenkilde, the current Mayor of Culture and Leisure in Copenhagen. Rosenkilde was elected a Copenhagen councillor in 2017 with 1 893 personal votes, and after Niko Grünfeld had to resign in 2018, she was chosen as the party's new Mayor of Culture and Leisure.
Another candidate who is slightly known is Troels Jakobsen; the former head of the Alternative Copenhagen association. While many Alternative candidates focus on green issues, he has focused most on his attention on job centers. As a playwriter, he once made a play about the treatment of unemployed in job centers, and he has talked extensively about his own experiences as unemployed. However, his very outspoken style has also created some conflicts; he was criticized for his nasty campaign against the former Social Liberal Mayor of Employment and Integration, and was very scornful of the Alternative party leadership, when they chose the Culture mayorship over the Employment and Integration one. Jakobsen was a candidate for councillor in Copenhagen in 2017, winning 754 votes. It was not enough to be elected, but after a number of retirements, he will now serve the last months of the term as a Copenhagen councillor.
The three remaining candidates are Jan Kristoffersen, a Deloitte consultant, who won 2 417 votes nationwide as a European Parliament candidate in 2019, Thor Clasen Jonasen, an assistant professor in Aarhus who won 203 personal votes when running as a candidate for councillor there in 2017 and Thomas Due Nielsen, who has been a part of the local party board in Randers.

The five candidates now have to get 100 signatures from party members in order for them to finalize their candidature before the extraordinary party congress on 7 February. Rosenkilde and Jakobsen have already collected the 100 signatures, while the other three candidates have yet to reach that threshold. The former two looks like the big favourites for the party leadership, but whoever wins have a difficult job on their hands.

This election is taking place today. Rosenkilde is the big favourite with Jakobsen the most likely upset candidate. Kristoffersen and Jonasen also managed to get 100 signatures, so are also on the ballot but unlikely to have any real chance. Nielsen did not collect enough signatures.

The party is having a virtual party congress. Party members will vote. If one candidate gets 50%+ of the votes, the candidate is elected. Otherwise, the worst placed candidate is eliminated and there is a new round of voting.

[Diouf]

Franciska Rosenkilde elected new Alternative leader



45-year old Franciska Rosenkilde was elected leader of the Alternative in the first round. She received 260 out of the 471 votes cast which ensured her election in the first round. Rosenkilde is Mayor of Culture and Leisure in Copenhagen, and with the local elections this November, the party can hope a slightly increased prominence for her can help the party retain representation in the Copenhagen, the party's stronghold. Nationwide the party had 20 local councillors elected in 2017, but 9 have since left the party. Rosenkilde's first big test will be to ensure that there are any left after the local and regional elections. While 4 of their 5 MPs have defected, the party is ensured a place a spot on the next general election ballot as long as their lone remaining MP Torsten Gejl keeps fighting under that banner.

[Diouf]

New Red-Green leader - matriarchy continues



Today 29-year old Mai Villadsen replaced Pernille Skipper as leader of the Red-Greens. Due to their rotation rules, Pernille Skipper can't run in the next general election. Therefore they have decided to change leader now. Villadsen defeated the experienced Søren Søndergaard, who has served several terms as MP and MEP (People's Movement against EU), in the internal vote in the parliamentary group. In 2020 Villadsen was only 5th in the yearly ranking of parliamentary candidates among the Red-Green membership, one position behind Søndergaard. So she was not as obvious a party favourite as Skipper, when she took over from Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen. However, now that the parliamentary group has chosen Villadsen, I would expect the members to vote her on top of the ranking in 2021. The ranking determines the order in which the parliamentary canddiates can choose constituencies, which is quite important as Red-Greens, as the only party, uses semi-closed lists at the general election. So 1st place would likely mean top of the list in Copenhagen, their strongest constituency.

Villadsen moved from Herning in Central Jutland to Copenhagen after her first year of high school. She graduated from Gefion High School in 2011 and then had a year as leader of the Association of High School students. From 2013-2015, she worked as a youth consultant in a trade union before becoming an adviser for the Red-Greens in parliament in 2015. In 2019, she was elected a MP in the Northern Zealand constituency with 2 572 personal votes. Since then she has been the party's spokesperson on climate and environment.

[Diouf]

Centrist update:

Lars Løkke has said that he does not expect that it's possible to properly start a new party before it's possible to meet freely again, so I assume it could happen sometime during the summer. But there might be developments and teasers before that to keep the attention. He also said that he does not expect to contend the local and regional elections in November, as his aim is to influence the big lines on a national level where cooperation across the centre is needed. This already happens many places in local politics.

There are rumours that the two independent MPs Jens Rohde and Orla Østerby are in discussions with the Christian Democrats. Østerby would seem quite logical for a fairly centrist Conservative as him, and would in many ways be similar to Per Ørum in 2010-11, who left the Conservatives and joined Christian Democrats after a DUI sentence. The problem for Østerby is that he is very much a local MP, who's not much known outside of his small pockets of support in the Struer and Holstebro district in the Western Jutland constituency. And in Western Jutland, the Christian Democrats best card Kristian Andersen is running and would safely win their seat if they enter parliament. So Østerby could either run in his home districts and win votes to "help the cause" with a low chance of getting elected, or run in a another constituency, where he's not known and could also have low chances of election. Rohde would seem a weirder fit, in some senses. He has been awarded Politician of the Year by the LGBT association for supporting their causes back when he was in the Liberals, and in 2003 boycotted the annual religious ceremony at the opening of parliament because the priest was from a quite hard core Evangelical church. Also he is just generally considered somewhat of a loose cannon. But Rohde wants to be in a centrist, moderate party, which Christian Democrats fit, and he is apparently a member of CDU in Germany, so it's not like it's unthinkable for him to be a part of a Christian organizaion. He has probably become less radical in his modernity since the early 00es, but I still wonder how he would work with the Christian Democrat grassroots.

Finally, Martin Lidegaard has reached a peace deal with Social Liberal leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen. Lidegaard has been promoted to Deputy Leader instead of Andreas Steenberg, and apparently they have agreed to lead the party along a more centrist course. Lidegaard himself has said that he has considered whether to leave the party and perhaps start something new, and today Ekstra Bladet reveals that one of Lidegaard's associates had even gone so far as to official register the new party "Midten - Danmarks bæredygtige parti"(Centre - Denmark's sustainable party) and bought a web domain. That registration will now be cancelled.

[Flyersfan232]

Centrist update:

Lars Løkke has said that he does not expect that it's possible to properly start a new party before it's possible to meet freely again, so I assume it could happen sometime during the summer. But there might be developments and teasers before that to keep the attention. He also said that he does not expect to contend the local and regional elections in November, as his aim is to influence the big lines on a national level where cooperation across the centre is needed. This already happens many places in local politics.

There are rumours that the two independent MPs Jens Rohde and Orla Østerby are in discussions with the Christian Democrats. Østerby would seem quite logical for a fairly centrist Conservative as him, and would in many ways be similar to Per Ørum in 2010-11, who left the Conservatives and joined Christian Democrats after a DUI sentence. The problem for Østerby is that he is very much a local MP, who's not much known outside of his small pockets of support in the Struer and Holstebro district in the Western Jutland constituency. And in Western Jutland, the Christian Democrats best card Kristian Andersen is running and would safely win their seat if they enter parliament. So Østerby could either run in his home districts and win votes to "help the cause" with a low chance of getting elected, or run in a another constituency, where he's not known and could also have low chances of election. Rohde would seem a weirder fit, in some senses. He has been awarded Politician of the Year by the LGBT association for supporting their causes back when he was in the Liberals, and in 2003 boycotted the annual religious ceremony at the opening of parliament because the priest was from a quite hard core Evangelical church. Also he is just generally considered somewhat of a loose cannon. But Rohde wants to be in a centrist, moderate party, which Christian Democrats fit, and he is apparently a member of CDU in Germany, so it's not like it's unthinkable for him to be a part of a Christian organizaion. He has probably become less radical in his modernity since the early 00es, but I still wonder how he would work with the Christian Democrat grassroots.

Finally, Martin Lidegaard has reached a peace deal with Social Liberal leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen. Lidegaard has been promoted to Deputy Leader instead of Andreas Steenberg, and apparently they have agreed to lead the party along a more centrist course. Lidegaard himself has said that he has considered whether to leave the party and perhaps start something new, and today Ekstra Bladet reveals that one of Lidegaard's associates had even gone so far as to official register the new party "Midten - Danmarks bæredygtige parti"(Centre - Denmark's sustainable party) and bought a web domain. That registration will now be cancelled.

even more parties?

[Diouf]

Polling average made by politologi.dk.

[Diouf]

Kristian Jensen leaves parliament to become special envoy to the UN



After 23 years in parliament, Kristian Jensen has today resigned from his seat. He will become the government's special envoy to the UN; with the main goal of securing Denmark a seat in the UN Security Council 2025-2026. The prominent Liberal politician is the first person to benefit from the controversial change to the diplomatic rulebook, which the government made last week. Until now, diplomats were only picked from among civil servants with years of service, primarily in the Foreign Ministry, but the Government changed the rules to allow others to be appointed, which opens the doors to seasoned politicians like Jensen.

Jensen has played a big role in Danish politicis for decades. He graduated as a bank clerk in 1993 and worked in that role for five years, before being elected a MP for the Liberals in 1998. In 2001, he was promoted to the important post as Speaker for Financial Affairs for the party, and in 2004 he became Minister of Taxation. He was elected deputy leader of the Liberals in 2009, when the previous deputy leader, Lars Løkke Rasmussen took over as leader and PM. When Løkke made a big government reshuffle in 2010, Jensen was axed as Minister and instead became Parliamentary Group Leader. In the opposition years, the relationsship between the two were not very good, and after Løkke's expenses scandal, Jensen came close to taking down Løkke as leader in the famous 2014 Liberal Leadership crisis. Instead a deal was made to ensure Jensen's prominent position and influence. In 2015, he became Minister of Foreign Affairs, and in 2016, when the government was expanded with Conservatives and Liberal Alliance, he became Minister of Finance. When Løkke refused to walk away from the Liberal leadership after the election defeat in 2019, Jensen upped the ante against him, and in the end, they both ended up leaving their positions.

Jensen's replacement will likely became Kenneth Mikkelsen, who is 1st replacement MP in the Western Jutland constituency for the party, and leader of a local business council. The party is probably very keen for him to take over, because the 2nd replacement MP, Gitte Willumsen, has defected to the Conservatives since the election.