Alberta (Canada) UCP leadership race

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The point that Danielle Smith hammered repeatedly in her speech last night was "the NDP-Liberal alliance" in Ottawa. I think that that's a really strong line of attack; the federal government is quite unpopular and the federal NDP is committed to never opposing it in any way. Now that the Alberta Liberal Party is truly dead, the NDP is the only party in the province with any connection to the government. The fact that the NDP has been in power already and Rachel Notley is a well-known figure makes this tougher for the UCP than it would be otherwise, but if they manage to pull it off next year I think this will be why.

The ANDP was smart to keep Rachel Notley around. While she's not exactly popular, she's easily the most popular left-leaning politician in Alberta (except maybe Nenshi, but he's explicitly nonpartisan and has remained so even since retirement, and even though he probably votes ANDP, I don't think a blue liberal with no NDP roots would be at home with NDP activists). In any case, Notley is a known quantity and is making life difficult for the UCP if polls are anything to go by.

Tying the ANDP to the NDP-Liberal alliance in Ottawa is a no-brainer for any UCP leader, and that will be one of the things that really hurts Notley - especially as federal government fatigue grows, and Poilievre keeps the right highly engaged by simply being himself. I think Notley's play should be to energize the left on healthcare and education, while running more to the right on pipelines and resource development, avoid getting bogged down in culture wars, and essentially brand herself as "the devil you know" (not in those exact terms, obviously, but you know what I mean).

I think Toews would have beaten the NDP among moderates on a message of pragmatism and stability, especially now that the oil industry is doing better, raising the scepter of an NDP government threatening that stability. Smith will try the same, and she's closer to public opinion as far as the oil industry goes, but she too threatens stability in her own way, I would argue more so than the NDP does. If Notley can brand the NDP as a pragmatic, moderate alternative to Smith's unconventional views, the NDP wins the next election.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Wondering if anyone has riding by riding breakdown as I kind of think had system federal Conservatives use been used in Alberta, Toews would have won it.  More than half the population of Alberta lives in either Calgary or Edmonton yet only about 30% of UCP members were from those two cities, rest elsewhere. 

That creates a real problem as outside two cities, UCP is going to win the overwhelming majority of seats no matter what, Edmonton is a lost cause for them.  But Calgary is real battleground and someone like Smith I think would less appealing in Calgary than Toews would be.  If Calgary goes NDP, then UCP loses next election and my gut instinct is it will go NDP.  On one hand, I don't think NDP's economic policies are exactly popular in Calgary so UCP may have a chance, but at same time Calgary is pretty moderate and Smith likely comes across as crazy there.

I couldn't find a riding-by-riding map, unfortunately. It will probably get released soon.

It would make more sense for the UCP to have a riding-by-riding points system like the federal party, because modern Alberta consists of three distinct, relatively equally populated socio-political subcultures - Edmonton, Calgary, and rural. But I can't see the UCP membership approving something like that. As you mentioned, the majority of UCP members are from outside the big cities, so why would they vote for a system that weakens their influence?

It all comes down to Calgary now, it will be an interesting election to follow for sure. I don't think there's any possibility of the NDP doing worse than 2019 but picking up 20 seats is no small goal. Edmonton is basically maxed-out for the NDP, and most of rural Alberta votes blue no matter who, so most of those gains will have to come from Calgary.

If, say, the NDP manages to win every seat where they got 30% or more in 2019, they'd pick up 21 seats for a slim one-MLA majority (assuming an NDPer takes the speakership). But that's no small task.

It's going to be an ugly, negative election, where both sides will focus on scaring Albertans - the UCP scaring them about the socialist hordes at the gates, and the NDP scaring them about the separatist hordes.

[adma]

The point that Danielle Smith hammered repeatedly in her speech last night was "the NDP-Liberal alliance" in Ottawa. I think that that's a really strong line of attack; the federal government is quite unpopular and the federal NDP is committed to never opposing it in any way. Now that the Alberta Liberal Party is truly dead, the NDP is the only party in the province with any connection to the government. The fact that the NDP has been in power already and Rachel Notley is a well-known figure makes this tougher for the UCP than it would be otherwise, but if they manage to pull it off next year I think this will be why.

Shades of how, a generation ago, the campaigning federal Liberals made a point of referring to "the Reform Alliance" and then "the Alliance Conservatives", tarring the primary opposition by association with their "extreme right" predecessors...

[adma]

Interestingly, I remember some people throwing around the possibility that in the 2018 Ontario election, the PCs would win a majority while Ford fails to win Etobicoke North. Ostensibly it made sense, considering the PCs finished third with 23% of the vote in that riding in 2014. But I think anyone who knew anything about Toronto politics understood that there wasn't the slightest flicker of a chance that the people of Etobicoke North would elect someone else when Doug Ford was on the ballot.

Other than those who used projection models in the stupidest way imaginable, I really don't think there were many who were projecting a Ford loss *in tandem with* a PC majority.  More often, it was in tandem w/broader PC squelched hopes, together with how, Doug Ford or no Doug Ford, it's by no stretch of the imagination a "natural" Tory riding, as the continued federal electoral record proves...

I agree that serious analysts weren't predicting a DoFo loss + PC majority situation, but the "people who use projection models in the stupidest way imaginable" make a lot of noise on social media. My point though was that it was the most recent time that I can recall where such predictions were made.

Yeah, just like I've seen some in this forum being led to overestimate the electoral backlash to "draconian" Covid restrictions--largely because of those who, well, make a lot of noise on social media.

Though in this case, I can see it being those on the "flaky left" who were all woe-is-us-we-can't-beat-the-Tories but were seeking *any* reason for hope against the presumed landslide juggernaut.  And the reported prospect of DoFo threatened in his own riding (even if it was more projection-model technicality--not "stupid" in its own right except when taken at face value) resonated as wishful feelgood, sort of like how the Big Lie is to Trump Republicans.

Etobicoke North in general is not a PC friendly riding, Harper failed to win it in 2011 despite winning big in Ontario.  But anyone who follows municipal politics would know Ford family is very popular there so I have often said it will vote Conservative if candidate has surname Ford, otherwise Liberal.

Well, yeah, *Conservative*.  As opposed to Renata Ford bombing for PPC in '19.