The Kentucky Democratic Party has a large bench....

[Suburbia]

The KYDEM has a large bench of potential candidates for Senate, Governor down the line, AG, etc.

Rocky Adkins, Adam Edelen, Jack Conway, Attica Scott, Charles Booker, ALG, Amy McGrath, Ben Chandler, Jerry Abramson, Andy Beshear for Senate one day, Greg Stumbo, Matt Jones, etc.

Some of them may be retreads, but KY is ancestrally Democratic locally, but a red state.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election#Declined_2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election#Declined_2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kentucky

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I'd have thought Stumbo is finished after two consecutive general election defeats as an (ex-)incumbent.

Matt Jones may never run as long as he enjoys his current jobs and KY remains at least as red as it is, but there's still a fair chance, I suppose.

McGrath is a bad candidate but might give it one more go anyway (although her next primary would probably be a much harder fight given the shifts in expectations surrounding her candidacy).

I'm not sure what makes Attica Scott a good statewide candidate, but will take your word for it here.

There are others besides the folks you mention, but a lot of the recent former incumbents who would be expected to attempt returns in other states might simply give up considering the Republican trend here. Non-electoral politics is not devoid of meaning - c.f. Mike Moore moving from the base he built as Mississippi AG into an effort to protect victims of the opioid crisis from his private practice.

[Suburbia]

I'd have thought Stumbo is finished after two consecutive general election defeats as an (ex-)incumbent.

Matt Jones may never run as long as he enjoys his current jobs and KY remains at least as red as it is, but there's still a fair chance, I suppose.

McGrath is a bad candidate but might give it one more go anyway (although her next primary would probably be a much harder fight given the shifts in expectations surrounding her candidacy).

I'm not sure what makes Attica Scott a good statewide candidate, but will take your word for it here.

There are others besides the folks you mention, but a lot of the recent former incumbents who would be expected to attempt returns in other states might simply give up considering the Republican trend here. Non-electoral politics is not devoid of meaning - c.f. Mike Moore moving from the base he built as Mississippi AG into an effort to protect victims of the opioid crisis from his private practice.

Mike Moore would have beaten Hyde Smith this year.

He should be on Biden's AG list along with Doug Jones and Tim Kaine since Kamala will be VP.

[KYRockefeller]

Of that list, I'd say only Rocky Adkins could win a statewide race.  He would've smashed Matt Bevin if he was nominated for governor instead of Andy Beshear (Beshear won by 5k votes, but I think Adkins would've ran up a much larger margin that could've helped down ticket Democrats).  Several of those Dems you listed are based in Louisville and KY voters tend to reject whatever is coming out of there on a regular basis.  Look at Jack Conway's bad runs for Senate and governor in 2010 and 2015, respectively.

Edelen came out hard left in the governor's race to try to win Louisville and get the Dem nomination that way, which will poison any big statewide runs later.  Charles Booker's progressive streak on Green New Deal and a host of other issues will also not win over a lot of statewide voters, but he could run for the mayorship of Louisville (and if he won it could set up a big clash with the rest of Jefferson County).

The GOP also has a healthy bench for the governorship because of their accumulation of statewide offices.  Ryan Quarles is the frontrunner for the governorship in 2023 in my view.  KY might have a lot of registered Dem voters but they have been consistently reluctant over the last 20+ years to send a Democrat to Washington for national office.

I expect an open Senate seat in 2026, though, as Mitch will try to pass it off to Daniel Cameron (attorney general).  Last time Mitch tried to get involved was 2010 when he wanted Trey Grayson (then-Sec. of State) into the chamber but Rand Paul won the primary.  That open seat will probably be the Dems best chance in a long while but I think they need someone like Joe Manchin to get that seat.

[Alcibiades]

Of that list, I'd say only Rocky Adkins could win a statewide race.  He would've smashed Matt Bevin if he was nominated for governor instead of Andy Beshear (Beshear won by 5k votes, but I think Adkins would've ran up a much larger margin that could've helped down ticket Democrats).  Several of those Dems you listed are based in Louisville and KY voters tend to reject whatever is coming out of there on a regular basis.  Look at Jack Conway's bad runs for Senate and governor in 2010 and 2015, respectively.

Edelen came out hard left in the governor's race to try to win Louisville and get the Dem nomination that way, which will poison any big statewide runs later.  Charles Booker's progressive streak on Green New Deal and a host of other issues will also not win over a lot of statewide voters, but he could run for the mayorship of Louisville (and if he won it could set up a big clash with the rest of Jefferson County).

The GOP also has a healthy bench for the governorship because of their accumulation of statewide offices.  Ryan Quarles is the frontrunner for the governorship in 2023 in my view.  KY might have a lot of registered Dem voters but they have been consistently reluctant over the last 20+ years to send a Democrat to Washington for national office.

I expect an open Senate seat in 2026, though, as Mitch will try to pass it off to Daniel Cameron (attorney general).  Last time Mitch tried to get involved was 2010 when he wanted Trey Grayson (then-Sec. of State) into the chamber but Rand Paul won the primary.  That open seat will probably be the Dems best chance in a long while but I think they need someone like Joe Manchin to get that seat.

I agree that Adkins is one of the strongest current members of their bench, although Beshear is also good as he is able to win some fragments of the old ancestral, New Deal vote (although less than Adkins) while also making inroads in the suburbs (more than Adkins would). This is probably a better and more sustainable future path to victory.

Out of interest, do you think that Adkins will win a Democratic nomination for Governor or Senator in the future?

[KYRockefeller]

Seeing as how Adkins is 60 already, I can see him being a possibility for Senate but he wouldn't be able to run for governor until 2027 at the earliest, so that probably closes that off.  If the Dems were smart, they'd consider running him against Rand Paul in 2022 as a "common sense Democrat" or something.  The only problem is Adkins is pro-life, so he'd probably have to fend off a primary challenge and his margins in Lexington/Louisville could be poor among more progressive voters there, so he may not even make it out.  I still think he's their best bet to win that race, though, IF he could make it to the general.  Seeing as how he helped get Beshear over the finish line against Bevin and worked really hard for that ticket, I think Beshear should try to help clear the field for him.

Andy Beshear could challenge for national office down the line, but his first test will be re-election in 2023.  I applaud what he's done with COVID, but doing so has really had him go against the grain in some places of the state and since he barely beat Bevin (who was like the most unpopular governor in the nation) it makes one wonder how he'd do against a less controversial challenger.  If he wins re-election, that positions him for a Senate bid later or maybe even an outside bid for the presidency (or VP consideration in 2024).

It's just so hard to get a read on the electorate here because polling is rare and sometimes way off.  The state Democrats really take a beating here based on what the party is doing nationally on climate change and guns, but if a Biden presidency proves less controversial than an Obama one on those issues then that might revive their fortunes.  A New Deal-like Democrat can still win IMO.  The challenge is to draw enough distance between the candidate and national party, just as say a Republican candidate who wanted to win a Senate race in New York would need to do.