Jean Charest becomes leader of PC in 1993

[brucejoel99]

With Charest at the helm, the PCs probably form a strong official opposition or a weak minority government. The former is much more likely, presumably with a seat count in the high 80s or low 90s. Keep in mind that while Campbell turned the party hard-right on all aspects of policy, especially immigration & finance, Charest is a pure Red Tory, so forget that hurting them.

Re: the Bloc & Reform, there'd probably be a 3-way split in Quebec, similar to that which was seen from 2004 until 2011, most likely with a PC plurality. In the West, the PCs would still dominate, though Reform would gain seats in Alberta & Saskatchewan. The Liberals would still gain a few Western seats because of vote-splitting. As for the long term, it depends on what happens during those 4 years (1993-97). Remember that there might even be a Liberal minority in this scenario.

Charest himself would stay on as leader of the opposition. Nearly the entire Mulroney cabinet was retiring from active politics, & Charest was by far the best choice of those who stayed on. Perhaps the best example is Harper in 2004: everybody expected Martin would win around 185 seats, if not more, prior to Adscam. As it turned out, but for a couple of tactical errors, Harper could've become PM 2 years earlier than he actually did with a similar seat count to 2006. Reducing potential Armageddon to a respectable official opposition would certainly be cause for applause.

As for what happens in the long term, it's a crapshoot. Perhaps Martin is less overtly ambitious & Chretien retires after 2 terms in Martin's favor, & Martin would win such a leadership convention due to having the organization in place to defeat a potentially crowded field (e.g. John Manley, Sheila Copps, Allan Rock, Frank McKenna, Brian Tobin, Martin Cauchon, Dalton McGuinty, Gerard Kennedy), just like Turner in 1984.