Why is Pinellas County, FL Dem leaning downballot but not for President?

[ON Progressive]

Pinellas County is, of course, a well-known bellwether county in Presidential elections. However, it is much stronger D downballot which mystifies me.

Here are some examples:
2018 Senate - Nelson +5 (5% D lean)
2018 Governor - Gillum +3 (3.5% D lean)
2018 Ag. Commissioner - Fried +6 (6% D lean)
2016 Senate - Rubio +2 (7% D lean)
2014 Governor - Crist +11 (11% D lean)

Any reason why this would happen? I understand that Crist is from Pinellas, but that wouldn't explain the other races.

[Skill and Chance]

Newcomers (retirees?) are more Republican than natives but less likely to turn out in non-presidential years?

[cvparty]

it seems like it’s high in WWC voters

[VPH]

it seems like it’s high in WWC voters

This explains it. Especially in Northern Pinellas, the population is sort of similar to that of Pasco County, which is a WWC county that swung heavily to Trump. Pinellas is diverse enough to have a smaller swing/discrepancy between races, but it nonetheless has a large WWC contingent.

[brucejoel99]

Yeah, it's the WWC voters.

[ajc0918]

Pinellas tilts Dem at the Presidential level. Trump won because of the high third party vote. The GOP hasn’t won 50% of the vote in Pinellas in a Presidential election since 1988 so when Dems are united they win. I fully expect it to go Dem in 2020 but it Dems need more than just a win here, they need a decent 30k vote margin.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's a spoiler of Florida politics from operatives in the state: Florida is a microcosm of the entire US east of the rockies (with a bit more hispanics) - which overall is Right Leaning. Because of Retirement and relocation migration, the voters that gave Trump the win in Florida along the I4 and the SW coast are very similar to the midwest. Pinellas, and her neighbors to the north and south are just as much extensions of the Midwest as Palm Beach and Broward are extensions of the NE. The county as a whole is similar to those in the midwest, with a uber-AA city and then some right-leaning coastal communites to the immediate west and north of St. Pete. Just saying its WWC doesn't capture the full nature of how Pinellas is very similar to other Obama-Trump large midwestern counties like Erie PA and Montgomery OH.

[MARGINS6729]

Pinellas tilts Dem at the Presidential level. Trump won because of the high third party vote. The GOP hasn’t won 50% of the vote in Pinellas in a Presidential election since 1988 so when Dems are united they win. I fully expect it to go Dem in 2020 but it Dems need more than just a win here, they need a decent 30k vote margin.

I would say a 25,000 vote margin or more right now but 30,000 is also good.

[Sol]

it seems like it’s high in WWC voters

This explains it. Especially in Northern Pinellas, the population is sort of similar to that of Pasco County, which is a WWC county that swung heavily to Trump. Pinellas is diverse enough to have a smaller swing/discrepancy between races, but it nonetheless has a large WWC contingent.

This, plus 2014 is additionally explained by Crist being from the area, where he is adored.

[Skill and Chance]

it seems like it’s high in WWC voters

This explains it. Especially in Northern Pinellas, the population is sort of similar to that of Pasco County, which is a WWC county that swung heavily to Trump. Pinellas is diverse enough to have a smaller swing/discrepancy between races, but it nonetheless has a large WWC contingent.

This.  High turnout favors R's in that area. 

The big Dem margin in 2014 Gov was because Crist lives there.