How will deadly heatwaves affect US primary elections?
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  How will deadly heatwaves affect US primary elections?
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Cassandra
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« on: July 27, 2019, 09:57:22 AM »

Earth's warming climate is making heatwaves both hotter and more frequent. As the global average temperature anomaly rises, we will begin to see maximums of heat and humidity which currently occur nowhere on this planet.

Wet bulb temperature is a measure of heat and humidity combined. Our bodies can withstand absurdly hot temperatures so long as the air remains dry. Humidity makes it more difficult for our skin to cool itself through sweat; this is why humidity makes heat feel so much more oppressive.



A 32 Celsius wet bulb temperature is basically unprecedented. The hottest it ever currently gets in the Ganges is 31C wet bulb. But by the 2070s/2080s, the above map demonstrates how  much more common these deadly heatwaves will become [source].

Hard manual labor in these temperatures is deadly, even for heat adjusted people (such as those raised in the Ganges plain). Even brief trips outside of air conditioning could cause serious problems; people living without AC would need to take serious precautions to survive these heatwaves. For reference, a 35C wet bulb temperature is the limit of human endurance; being outside for any length of time in those conditions will everyone, as our skin is unable to sweat [source].

With this in mind, massage your temples and imagine: the year is 2071. Mississippi is holding its primary elections for governor, etc. at the beginning of August. But low and behold, election-day coincides with one of these 32C wet bulb heat waves. Weather stations advise all residents to stay indoors, or if they live without air conditioning, to spend the day in malls, libraries, or other air conditioned public spaces. What happens?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2019, 04:54:03 PM »

Such bad weather could very well have a significant impact on in-person voter turnout, yes, but I find it very hard to believe that early voting & voting-by-mail won't be able to lessen (if not completely eliminate) the effect of such weather on elections over the next 52 years.
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Cassandra
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2019, 10:01:46 AM »

Such bad weather could very well have a significant impact on in-person voter turnout, yes, but I find it very hard to believe that early voting & voting-by-mail won't be able to lessen (if not completely eliminate) the effect of such weather on elections over the next 52 years.

Think outside the box. These heatwaves will inordinately kill those too poor to afford air conditioning and those who work outside, i.e. the poor. Simply by their killing power alone, these heatwaves could massively restructure American culture and politics.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2019, 08:48:41 PM »

The Great Migration is moving to Sunbelt anyways, away from the rust belt. It just reaffirms the sunbelt stack with immigrants
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2019, 03:25:06 PM »

It could enhance the high income turnout advantage in the South, but I doubt it and I certainly doubt any of the catastrophic impacts you are describing.  90% of households already have air conditioning, and it's now 95%+ in the South.  Public housing in Southern states is generally air conditioned.  Most of the population in the South already lives in a car/office/house or apartment bubble for the entire summer, going outside only to go to the beach/pool.  Also, I fully expect most outdoor construction to be done by robots by midcentury. 

The worst impact would be on poor people on the West Coast and especially the Northeast who often still don't have AC, but even then it would be a transition period to approaching their summers like the South already does.
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