RRusso1982
Rookie
Posts: 207
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« on: December 01, 2020, 01:40:30 PM » |
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In reality, it is very difficult to defeat an incumbent, especially during wartime. By the fall of 2004, Bush's approval numbers were not great, but they were not horrible, like they became in his second term. His approval ratings during the fall of 2004 were just below 50%, around 48% or 49%, and his disapproval numbers were around 46% or 47%. Basically he was treading water. The Iraq war wasn't that popular at that time but it had not yet become as unpopular as it later became. The economy was not great but it was recovering from the early 2000s recession. Basically the election was a tie. In baseball a tie goes to the runner. In elections, a tie typically goes to the incumbent, unless the opponent is a really great candidate and runs a great campaign. That was definitely not the case with John Kerry. Not enough to justify throwing out the incumbent. So the dynamics favored Bush narrowly. Even so, Kerry still came one large state (Ohio) from winning.
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