Who would have won the biggest landslide vs McCain?

[Andrew Yang 2024]

Who would it have been?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Obama, I think.  I think HRC would have lost Indiana and North Carolina.  Obama benefitted a lot from turnout in Lake County, IN, which bordered Illinois, so ads from his Senate campaign aired there, etc., so they were more familiar with him in that county and he overperformed.  I think he won NC due to increased black turnout which HRC probably wouldn't have replicated.  I think HRC would have won AR, MO, and WV, though, so that gets her to 361 (Obama won 365).  So, Obama, barely.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Popular Vote: Obama

Electorally : Hillary (I think she loses NC but wins MO, MT, WV, AR)

[brucejoel99]

Obama, I think.  I think HRC would have lost Indiana and North Carolina.  Obama benefitted a lot from turnout in Lake County, IN, which bordered Illinois, so ads from his Senate campaign aired there, etc., so they were more familiar with him in that county and he overperformed.  I think he won NC due to increased black turnout which HRC probably wouldn't have replicated.  I think HRC would have won AR, MO, and WV, though, so that gets her to 361 (Obama won 365).  So, Obama, barely.

This.

[President Johnson]

Obama.

Hillary would NOT have won Arkansas or West Virginia. Maybe Missouri and Montana, but lost North Carolina and Indiana in reverse.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Obama.

Hillary would NOT have won Arkansas or West Virginia. Maybe Missouri and Montana, but lost North Carolina and Indiana in reverse.

She led all the polls in Arkansas by large margins and AR was still a Dem state then . The state gop was also considered to be a joke back then . Bush won that state twice cause he was a southern religious right conservative running against a Dem who ran way from Clinton and a North East Liberal .


Hillary back then was still viewed as Bill’s third term which is why she was popular there

[Vittorio]

John Edwards never meets Rielle Hunter and somehow wins the nomination. He selects Obama as his running-mate.

[Andrew Yang 2024]

I was gonna ask if he gets involved because I always saw HRC and Obama.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

What is with this "Hillary would have won MT" nonsense? Hillary was way less popular there than Obama. Not only did she lose the MT primary by double digits, she was losing the state massively in the polls against McCain while Obama was competitive.

[One Term Floridian]

Blue signifies the states I think Obama was the better fit; red for Hillary. It's truly a shame these two were never paired on the same ticket together. Their unique regional strengths would have been interesting to see fused together in a general election.

All in all, it's difficult to precisely state who would do better against McCain. My hunch is Hillary does a little bit better in the electoral vote because she had the potential of flipping quite a few of her husband's states in the South all while keeping most of Obama's states.

Flipping IN was all Obama's doing (Hillary couldn't conceivably have flipped it without Bayh on the ticket), NC is a toss-up/tilt Obama owing to record black turnout & VA was flipping this year regardless although Hillary would've taken the traditional Democratic route via SWVA to win it. That county map would have looked very, very interesting... But Obama would have probably done marginally better than her due to his strengths in NOVA and the Greater Richmond area, all despite carrying significantly fewer counties than her.

WV, MO, AR would have almost certainly flipped to Hillary and she may have even come close or even won GA, KY, LA & TN (in that order). Therefore, it seems Hillary had the electoral edge over Obama. A bigger popular vote margin than Obama's +7.3% also isn't out of the question if Hillary can muster a final hurrah of white ancestral Democrats in the presidential level. I think after 8 years of Bush, a Nader resurgence is also unlikely.

And ultimately, as I hate to admit, a Hillary presidency would have been better for local Democrats in the more socially conservative parts of the country. Not to mention Cocaine Mitch would have been fighting for his political life with Hillary targeting KY with all hands on deck in 2008. I just don't see anywhere near as mass of an exodus in Appalachia happening under a second Clinton presidency until at least a second (inevitable) Obama run in 2016, which is when the bottom would really have fallen out.

[President Johnson]

Obama.

Hillary would NOT have won Arkansas or West Virginia. Maybe Missouri and Montana, but lost North Carolina and Indiana in reverse.

She led all the polls in Arkansas by large margins and AR was still a Dem state then . The state gop was also considered to be a joke back then . Bush won that state twice cause he was a southern religious right conservative running against a Dem who ran way from Clinton and a North East Liberal .


Hillary back then was still viewed as Bill’s third term which is why she was popular there

I agree Hillary would have done better than Obama tn these states, but no way she would have won them. The last Arkansas polls were conducted over six months before the actual election. Obama lost Arkansas by 20 points, which was one of the very few states he underperformed Kerry in 2004. I just don't see how Hillary would have outperformed Obama by such a gigantic margin.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Obama.

Hillary would NOT have won Arkansas or West Virginia. Maybe Missouri and Montana, but lost North Carolina and Indiana in reverse.

She led all the polls in Arkansas by large margins and AR was still a Dem state then . The state gop was also considered to be a joke back then . Bush won that state twice cause he was a southern religious right conservative running against a Dem who ran way from Clinton and a North East Liberal .


Hillary back then was still viewed as Bill’s third term which is why she was popular there

I agree Hillary would have done better than Obama tn these states, but no way she would have won them. The last Arkansas polls were conducted over six months before the actual election. Obama lost Arkansas by 20 points, which was one of the very few states he underperformed Kerry in 2004. I just don't see how Hillary would have outperformed Obama by such a gigantic margin.

Clinton was leading by double digits in polling there while Obama was trailing around same amount :

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ar/arkansas_clinton_vs_mccain-591.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ar/arkansas_mccain_vs_obama-592.html

[Plankton5165]

I think he won NC due to increased black turnout which HRC probably wouldn't have replicated.

But HRC did not do much worse in GA, NC, SC, or VA than Obama in 2012.

[Left Wing]

What about between Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich and Vilsack?

[CookieDamage]

Thinking Hillary would have won AR is a little silly, but thinking she would have won WV is just foolish. These states were Safe R in 2008.

[VPH]

What about between Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich and Vilsack?

Ranked by performance:
1. Biden: Strong with WWC voters, could have done well in 2008 but not sure any better than Obama
2. Richardson: Boosted Hispanic turnout and might engage an interesting coalition? But overall I think he does worse than Obama or Clinton.
3. Vilsack: Does well in rural areas but uninspiring as heck.
4. Dodd: I don't see him as very strong
5. Kucinich: He would do much worse than Obama. McCain could probably pick Lieberman and pull a lot of Democratic votes.

I think a non-scandal Edwards + Obama ticket would have been formidable.

[YE]

Obama I think just because he was a better candidate overall. Much of Clinton's WWC strength in like WV and AR would have evaporated by election day much like how polling showed Obama competitive in the Dakotas and Alaska for a bit (though the VP selection had something to do with it in Alaska's case) only for those states to not be that close.

[MT Treasurer]

Popular Vote: Obama

Electorally : Hillary (I think she loses NC but wins MO, MT, WV, AR)

Clinton wouldn’t have done better than Obama in MT, that’s honestly laughable. She wouldn’t have flipped WV and AR either, but MO is debatable.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Obama I think just because he was a better candidate overall. Much of Clinton's WWC strength in like WV and AR would have evaporated by election day much like how polling showed Obama competitive in the Dakotas and Alaska for a bit (though the VP selection had something to do with it in Alaska's case) only for those states to not be that close.

No. The Dakotas and Alaska are not like West Virginia and Arkansas. They were/are ancestrally Republican states where I'm pretty sure there were more people registered as Republican than Democrat (and in 2008 few states had R>D). West Virginia had a majority of registered Democrats (Arkansas I don't think had party registration then). Also, Obama pulled resources out of the Dakotas and Alaska in the summer, if I recall correctly. I don't think Hillary Clinton would have ever pulled resources out of Arkansas or West Virginia. I would also argue that McCain was a much better fit for ND/SD/AK than the Upland South.

Maybe she would have lost them anyway. But I think some people are putting too much stock in the actual results of the 2016 GE and the 2008 GE.

(This goes the other way too. McCain might have had a shot at Oregon against Clinton)

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I think he won NC due to increased black turnout which HRC probably wouldn't have replicated.

But HRC did not do much worse in GA, NC, SC, or VA than Obama in 2012.

Well Hillary ran against Trump. Romney ran his campaign on winning rich white suburban voters

[darklordoftech]

Cocaine Mitch would have been fighting for his political life with Hillary targeting KY with all hands on deck in 2008.

Defeating Cocaine Mitch alone would have made nominating Hillary worth it.

[Canis]

Obama would have done better in the EC and the popular vote but Clinton would have done a lot better in the south and Appalachia I see her winning MO and AR but losing IN and NC she also would have come closer in KY and WV but I think she would have picked Obama as VP and those states were trending so republican she probably still doesn't win them but it could be enough to bring down Mitch here's what I think the map would look like  Clinton was very popular in AR back in 2008 she wouldn't carry it by a landslide like the polls showed but I think she would have edged

[Canis]

What about between Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich and Vilsack?

All of em would have won (besides Kucinich maybe I don't hate the guy and I would have supported him in the primary after Gravel dropped out but his views are a little weird how they range from Conservative to Progressive and some of his views might have been looked at as too extreme for 2008) just because things were so bad for the GOP that year but I only see them doing significantly better in their home states none of them would have energized turnout like Obama or Hillary did.

[jmsstnyng]

I think Obama was the best candidate in '08. Most Democrats would have won, but Obama took a helpful terrain and enhanced it with his charisma.

Hillary would have won, but I don't think she would have outperformed Obama. Americans wanted change, and Hillary would have not been the best suited for that.

Edwards would have won, assuming his scandals did not exist.

I think Richardson would have done well. He would substitute Obama's charisma for a sense of boring competence after 8 years of Bush.

I think the only Democrat that could have lost would've been Kucinich, Gravel, Dodd and maybe Biden.

Kucinich and Gravel would have been painted as out of touch, extreme. McCain would seem more reasonable by comparison.

Dodd would be painted as Kerry 2.0. Elitist Northeastern liberal. Elitist vs. Veteran hero.
Biden probably would win, but I could see his plagiarism attacks turn into a character attack (liar, deceitful) vs. McCain's bipartisan respect.

[Bootes Void]

John Edwards(without the scandal) no doubt would win by the largest