UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New PM, new thread.

'This Royal Throne of Clowns' perhaps?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very surprised to see Rodney Tine return to the cabinet so soon, especially given why he had to leave in the first place. Shocking stuff.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A Vote of No Confidence is not the same thing as a vote for the appointment of the PM and it's weird that everyone is discussing this as if it were, because such a thing does not exist here.

Anyway, everyone is playing political gamesmanship here, as per usual. Which doesn't mean that there's no sincerity on show; the two things can co-exist surprisingly well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Unfortunately every single political party has gamed this actually quite serious process for petty political advantage and, well, look where we are now. You'd think that the outcome of the 2017 election would have resulted in serious negotiations and some sort of compromise between the government and Labour but this did not happen - was not even contemplated by either. Why? Because the Conservatives viewed (and view) this entire mess as an internal Party problem and any sort of arrangement with the hated socialists would shatter any hope of Party Unity, while Labour viewed (and view) this issue as an irrelevant bourgeois concern that mattered (and matters) only as a means of bringing down the government and triggering fresh elections in favourable circumstances. The LibDems have seen this issue as their meal-ticket back to respectability and electoral relevance, the SNP as a way of getting another referendum on their issue, and so on. A pretty impressive systemic political failure all round, wonderful. A big part of the issue being the adversarial model of politics, which, apparently, under such circumstances fries brains. Of course one cannot pretend this is purely the fault of British politicians even if it mostly is: imagine designing an exit process as dangerously stupid as this one.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Note that what is being done here is an abuse of power to mess with the timetable rather than doing so to put the whole place in lockdown for the weeks before the 31st October deadline, which is what the fruitloops were starting to agitate for. In other words, classic Oxford Union bullsh!t.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1166717448118296576

lol

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I did time my holiday well, but the effect on the exchange rate has not been too great sadly. I have been quite surprised however, how little most people here in the UK seem to care. One would really not expect that the country is in the midst of an constitutional crisis and on the brink of a economic one as well. I have noticed nothing of it here really, except from the newspapers and the odd Car Bumper sticker. I tried to discuss it at breakfast, but unlike the European tourists, the Brits seemed to be quite uninterested in the whole saga. Quite surreal actually.

It's mainly because of how bloody sick of it we all are. And when I say all, I mean ALL

Yes. Additionally, it is an unpleasant topic and there are Ranters about.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Perhaps you should stop pretending to be an expert about things that you know nothing and just be quiet.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've never seen any evidence that he thinks in those grandiose calculating terms, even if some of the people working for him certainly do. His politics are basically sentimental, not ideological.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

FTPA might also complicate things: under the circumstances it would be quite politically legitimate for Labour and the other opposition parties to argue 'yes to an election soon, but not right now'.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why wouldn't she? Besides there would be enourmous opposition here to a 'free' trade arrangement with the United States: I'm not even sure if it would be politically tenable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course mass auto-deselection (even expulsion has been threatened?) could easily trigger an actual Split under current conditions and then who even knows anything, anywhere.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There actually hasn't been that much polling recently and much of it has been by one firm, one that recently has shown small but major differences to most of the others. So the picture even as it is now is not clear, let alone what might happen during a campaign.

Of course it is also possible that the cranking up of GE speculation today is mostly intended as putting on thumbscrews for the vote tomorrow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What in God's name was that?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

After Corbyn's ad infinitum calls for a General Election, why would he block one now? He'd look 'frit' and a hafl.

It isn't particularly hard to construct an Augustinian argument around the issue - a General Election soon but not just yet - given the circumstances and the need to prevent No Deal etc. I suspect the only people who would find that seriously objectionable would be political journalists.

I've no idea if that's the line they'll take or even if that's the decision they'll make, but it's there as an option.

Of course we don't even know for certain if the government will be defeated in the House on these issues: promised Tory rebellions under May had a habit of vanish under the slightest pressure. Could be this time is different, but we shall see.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very poor response from Johnson to the defeat - incoherent ranting. Corbyn confirms Labour's position as to support an election only if No Deal is negated.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1169004516840235014

Normal, normal, behaviour, very normal - extremely normal. The very definition of the norm.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The British are currently suffering the curse of living in interesting times

Yes, thank you for that original and insightful observation, it had not occurred to anyone before.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Was kicking out 21 members of your party on the same day you lost your working majority the... um... right strategy here?

I imagine the idea is that once an election has been forced they will be replaced in their mostly safe Tory constituencies with True Believers who will do Johnson's bidding.

Yes, I do see the theoretical logic in withdrawing the whip from the rebels and then immediately calling an election to get rid of them.  But when you still need all the precious votes you can get to call the election in the first place, suddenly pulling the rugs (of safe re-election) our from under 21 of your own MPs is not a particularly clever way to go about it.

Particularly odd is that some had already announced they were retiring at the next election and that others were obviously contemplating it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...what the Christ was that?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's absolutely no point in that sort of hysterical lapel-clutching here, so please desist.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My concern is, will those consequences materialize?

If this all amounted to active law-breaking, then, yes. The British political system has its problems, but a lack of a strong State/government distinction is not one of them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, an expert in British Constitutional Law are we?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The real concern about Corbyn is possible capital flight...

No. The real concern about Corbyn is the possibility that he might well be how one says 'Francois Hollande' in English.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/DanRebellato/status/1175311928299794433