UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I know it's a bit easy but... how about "BoJo the Clown"?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I hope the myth of BoJo and Cummings as strategic masterminds is dead and buried now. The expulsion of the rebels is especially baffling, since as long as they had something to lose as Tory MPs they might have been reasoned with (at least to try to prevent a no-confidence vote) but now they're entirely free to topple BoJo and install PM Ken Clarke or whomever. BoJo has no way of actually getting the election he desperately wants, and now he has no way to force through a no-deal Brexit. He really shot himself in the foot. That seems to be a pattern with #populist leaders this Summer, after Salvini's equally hilarious own-goal.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I hope the myth of BoJo and Cummings as strategic masterminds is dead and buried now. The expulsion of the rebels is especially baffling, since as long as they had something to lose as Tory MPs they might have been reasoned with (at least to try to prevent a no-confidence vote) but now they're entirely free to topple BoJo and install PM Ken Clarke or whomever. BoJo has no way of actually getting the election he desperately wants, and now he has no way to force through a no-deal Brexit. He really shot himself in the foot. That seems to be a pattern with #populist leaders this Summer, after Salvini's equally hilarious own-goal.

The odds of Labour backing a Clarke government are roughly zero

I thought Corbyn had already tentatively agreed to such an arrangement if it becomes necessary to stop no deal?

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/MattGarrahan/status/1169720609095462913

Is there any precedent for this?

There is nothing they won't pull to cause more dither and delay until the 31st of October so they can leave with their prized no deal

The opposition should pull a Di Maio/Zingaretti and take the opportunity to put forward their own government. It would of course only be a temporary and precarious arrangement, but it would allow the UK to get an extension from the EU and then hold an election that isn't on BoJo's terms.

[Antonio the Sixth]

if they win the election they will still have time to call for an extension.

Except they won't. It's logistically and legally impossible to hold an election and have the new parliament convene before Oct 31.

And as Nathan said, the PM of such a caretaker government wouldn't be Corbyn. I don't understand why he'd even want to Ramsay McDonald himself into such a position.

[Antonio the Sixth]

John Bercow, the HoC Speaker, is to stand down (as an MP also) by the end of the year.

(in other words at the next GE assuming, as is now very likely, there is one before then)

When taking over in summer 2009, he said he would not do more than a decade.

Nooooooooooooooooooo

[Antonio the Sixth]

I hope and believe that this day will go down in British history. What happened today is incredibly important. It's not even necessarily that important for Brexit, or even for Boris Johnson's political career. It's important for the fundamental principle it begins to establish in British law (and hopefully, this will also reverberate in countries whose laws were inspired by Britain). For over half a century, parliamentary democracy has been in decline across the Western world, as executives have increasingly arrogated power for themselves. "Parliamentary supremacy", that big word of British constitutional discourse, seemed to have a legal fiction, withall real decisions being taken in Downing Street. Parliament's hamstringing of the government's Brexit negotiations first, and now this Supreme Court ruling, are the first steps in reversing this dynamic, and giving back Parliament meaningful decision-making power. If you look at this in conjunction with Italy's government crisis, and possibly Netanyahu's upcoming fall from power (three admittedly very different political developments), the common thread is the failure of personalist leaders to impose their will on plural, representative, deliberative bodies. This is a heartening series of developments for democracy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It really says something about the cancerous growth of the executive power in the US, and the extent to which most Americans take it for granted, that Beep Boop simply cannot comprehend that, in a parliamentary system, government and parliament are NOT coequal branches - the former is an employee of the latter that the latter can fire at any moment. Parliamentary supremacy actually means something, and we're finally seeing that principle affirmed in Britain at least.

That being said, it is utterly pathetic that the Rebel Alliance can't just f**king agree on a temporary caretaker PM, so they can just vote a motion of no confidence and be done with BoJo. It's not rocket science. It's dumb that the LibDems have such an objection against Corbyn, but Corbyn himself should have no problem saying "OK, let's prop up some uncontroversial elder statesman like Clarke or Harman". It really doesn't matter who leads the caretaker government - such a government would only exist so that parliament can be rid of this treasonous government fully exert its supremacy until an Article 50 extension is secured.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I so dearly wish I had that much faith in BoJo not finding a way around the Benn Act, or some other area in which to frustrate Parliament's sovereignty, but I'm starting to recognize the type of politician he is, and if I'm right, then every day that he spends on No. 10 is a day parliamentary democracy is at risk. I home I'm wrong.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So... BoJo's new "I-Can't-Believe-It's-Not-A-Backstop" plan is pretty much DOA. It will be either no deal or another extension.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So... BoJo's new "I-Can't-Believe-It's-Not-A-Backstop" plan is pretty much DOA. It will be either no deal or another extension.

The Tories just put up an ad for a Tory MEP internship in Brussels that starts on November 1st, so it seems like the behind-the-scenes presumption is that BoJo's gonna take the plunge &, as mandated by law, request the extension that he so desperately wants to not request.

Funnily enough, this reminds me of when the Tories were officially saying that they wouldn't hold the EU elections whilst simultaneously sending word out behind-the-scenes to their constituency associations to tell them to prepare for the EU elections.

AYY LMAO

[Antonio the Sixth]

In the case of a caretaker government, would Labour ever discuss choosing someone besides Corbyn as the caretaker PM?

They should be open to that. It would be idiotic and suicidal not to (then again, it's the Labour Party we're talking about...).

[Antonio the Sixth]

The point re the "GNU" discussions is that Swinson is (not for the first time) arguing in pretty transparent bad faith - a major reason why Corbyn "doesn't have the numbers" is because she has vetoed the LibDems supporting him, whilst demanding that he "steps aside" for some still ill-defined "grandee" ignores that as the leader of easily the second biggest party in the Commons he is *constitutionally entitled* to have the next go at forming a government were PM Johnson to be VONCed. She is making that demand because she doesn't want her party put on the spot (backing JC likely won't help them in the Tory leaning seats they are targeting at the coming GE, but not doing so could quite possibly lose support elsewhere) and is maybe getting carried away with their present good poll ratings and forgetting the parliamentary party is (even after recent defections) a poor fourth in HoC terms, still well behind the SNP. There are actually limits to how much they can throw their weight around.

It makes perfect sense, in a coalition of highly heterogeneous parties, not to have any of the party leaders take the top spot, but instead to find a different candidate that isn't too objectionable to any of the coalition members. This might not be familiar to you because the UK hasn't had many coalitions (and where it has it was always on the basis of a two-party agreement), but at this point it's really time to stop thinking of Westminster as working according to the Westminster system, because the reality is that it just doesn't anymore.

[Antonio the Sixth]

These arguments for Corbyn to be PM just don't make any sense. Look, you know I'm far from reflexively anti-Corbyn (although I despise his antisemitism, as any morally serious leftist should). But this is just not how coalitions work. Just because you're the biggest party in the coalition, you don't get to dictate who gets to be PM, especially when that person is toxic for your partner. I have no sympathy for Jo Swinson but she has every right to say no to Corbyn, and if Corbyn refuses a compromise name, then it will be his fault if BoJo finds a way to crash out.

[Antonio the Sixth]

But my point is that whilst centrist "grandees" might be more "acceptable" to LibDems, that doesn't mean they are more acceptable to EVERYBODY. As too many on here seem to assume.

A center-left Labourite can't be as objectionable to Labour as a hard-left Labourite would be to the LibDems. Come on now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

But the LibDems are "compromising" on *what*, exactly? An alternate universe in which Swinson with all of 18 MPs (at time of posting) actually becomes prime minister??

As usual, it is the left that is expected to concede to the centre.

If Labour had a majority, Corbyn would be PM.

If the LibDems had a majority, Swinson would be PM.

Neither has a majority, so neither will be PM. Who does become PM will require a negotiation (one where Labour obviously has more bargaining power). It's really not that hard to understand if you stop being a hack for five minutes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, Clegg and Foster were obviously more pliable coalition partners than Swinson. I'm not sure if a Labourite wants to defend them as exemplary coalition partners, though.

No one is "obliged" to do anything here, but if Labour actually cared about stopping Bojo's shenanigans, it would accept to indicate someone else, from within its own ranks who could be an acceptable PM for all potential partners in the rebel alliance.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/12/voters-will-have-show-casting-ballot-prevent-electoral-fraud/ (yeah I know it's the bloody Telegraph but can you believe it, the BBC aren't reporting on it? Shocking I know)

The Tories, deciding that winning the next election by conventional means is too much effort, have decided that it's going to be much easier to simply disenfranchise millions of people who have committed the heinous crime of not having enough money to buy an ID. I'm no legal expert so whether this stands up in the courts or not is beyond me, but it is unsurprising.

...so GOP voter suppression tactics have officially made their entry in British politics. Wonderful. Just wonderful.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The antisemitism is very much a real and systematic issue within Labour. It does predate Corbyn, but he has consistently failed to do anything about it and been dismissive of people who have been sounding the alarm.

Someone like Luciana Berger shouldn't by any right have joined Umunna's centrist vanity project, and almost certainly wouldn't have if her party hadn't treated her like an outcast.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Labour MPs have apparently been warned that they won't be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again if they vote for a deal

Oh for f**k's sake.

Labour has the biggest interest in settling the Brexit issue once and for all. If they'd voted for May's deal, chances are they wouldn't be polling at 20% right now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Labour MPs have apparently been warned that they won't be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again if they vote for a deal

Oh for f**k's sake.

Labour has the biggest interest in settling the Brexit issue once and for all. If they'd voted for May's deal, chances are they wouldn't be polling at 20% right now.

They aren't polling at 20% in any poll right now.

And their poll drop is significantly down to remain voters having bought the media/#FBPE line that Corbyn "wants Brexit" (regardless of his actual public statements and votes on it since 2016)

LibDems are literally praying Labour votes for any Johnson deal.

(spoiler alert - its not going to happen)

The whole Brexit debate radicalized because May's deal couldn't get through, convincing a bunch of people that no deal or revoke were the only viable paths. Pass May's deal, and radicalization never takes place. People would probably agree it's a pretty bad deal, but then everybody would move on to the bread-and-butter issues that Labour has an advantage on.

[Antonio the Sixth]

May's deal was rubbish, any Johnson deal will be worse. No self-respecting leftist would back them.

May negotiated the best deal that the UK could've gotten, given the limited leverage that a country leaving the EU has. But then again, no self-respecting Brit would've voted to leave in the first place.

Exactly. The idea that there's some magical "better deal" right around the corner if you just tell the EU to f**k off is ridiculous. The EU's conditions for a deal are basically set in stone, and no amount of grandstanding from either BoJo or Corbyn is going to change them in any substantial way.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Boris won't have to ask for an extension if a deal is reached, correct? Does the deal have to pass Parliament first?

Even if they reach a deal, I have a hard time seeing how they could avoid an extension. Any deal that comes out of these talks will need to be ratified both by the UK, by all 27 member states, and by the European Parliament. And beyond just ratification, there needs to be legislation passed to materially implement the terms of the deal.

[Antonio the Sixth]

May's deal was rubbish, any Johnson deal will be worse. No self-respecting leftist would back them.

May negotiated the best deal that the UK could've gotten, given the limited leverage that a country leaving the EU has. But then again, no self-respecting Brit would've voted to leave in the first place.

Exactly. The idea that there's some magical "better deal" right around the corner if you just tell the EU to f**k off is ridiculous. The EU's conditions for a deal are basically set in stone, and no amount of grandstanding from either BoJo or Corbyn is going to change them in any substantial way.

This is pure mythology, the EU have SAID THEMSELVES a different deal might be on offer if May's wretched "red lines" were jettisoned.

And it is extremely likely any "deal" Johnson offers will be worse than hers was, anyway.

The only serious alternative to the May deal would be staying in the customs union, but that proposal has repeatedly failed to garner a majority in parliament. And if you think voting against a BoJo deal (that will be substantively identical to May's deal, let's be clear) is going to make the customs union more likely, I have a bridge to sell you.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Seems like Parliament just won't let BoJo win