UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[CumbrianLefty]

New PM, new thread.

Though he doesn't actually become PM until tomorrow, after May's final questions swansong.

[CumbrianLefty]

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/jaredomaramp/status/1153742493034438656?s=19

http://archive.ph/TdYVn

Nick Clegg getting booted out for this waste of space was one of the stupidest results of the 2017 election.

He should have been booted out for a very good Labour candidate in the 2015 GE instead.

[CumbrianLefty]

This might be the worst Cabinet of all-time. Raab and Patel has to be some kind of practical joke, surely?

Williamson is arguably the worst pick, both on a practical and moral level.

Seriously, how has what he did just been airbrushed away??

[CumbrianLefty]

1) Yes, he can (which is certainly not saying he *will*)

2) Who knows? Would depend on how that had happened to a significant extent.

[CumbrianLefty]

Apart from good old YouGov, slightly underwhelming for the new PM I would have thought.

[CumbrianLefty]

Field's announcement is that he is forming a new party, the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party", and will stand in the next election under this label.

Slightly underwhelming announcement given the speculation that preceded it.

In particular the Brexit Party seemed to have real hopes that he might become one of theirs.

[CumbrianLefty]

TIN and CHUK would be very uncomfortable with the man who basically ran them out of Labour Party being PM.

My only response to that is "diddums" quite frankly.

If the likes of Leslie and Gapes enable a Johnson no deal, they will be vilified by history.

Its their call.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its only recently that the SNP have finally shaken off being seen as bringing Thatcher to power in 1979.

And in Labour circles, Ramsay Macdonald is a pariah even now.

If even LibDems in the end come round to supporting Corbyn as PM for a few weeks, but the former Change UK MPs are seen to make the difference, rest assured that *will* be remembered by many.

[CumbrianLefty]

Corbyn can't be trusted to reliably oppose Brexit, and he can't be trusted to reliably give up power at the end of a "caretaker" tenure.

Sorry, but this is pure derangement.

How do you think he could hold on in those circumstances, even if he wanted to??

(which he wouldn't, but anyway)

This isn't Czechoslovakia in 1948 and he isn't Klement Gottwald.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Lib Dems have an unenviable choice here but I think it's pretty clear what they should do. Back down and put the senile hard-Brexiteering lunatic in office and they lose every vote they have gained since early this year

As polls confirm, they have gained a lot of that support from Labour.

And that isn't - whatever some may like to believe - because those people have been (re)converted to the virtues of neoliberal centrism, it is because many of them are very worried about Brexit (especially the prospect of crashing out without a deal) and came to view the once quite effective Labour/Corbyn "constructive ambiguity" on the topic as more like evasion and duplicity.

Corbyn putting Swinson on the spot like this was thus smart politics as well as objectively the right thing to do to maximise the chances of avoiding no deal. Always a good combination.

And she handled it poorly, too many LibDems have let the Euro elections especially go to their heads.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some of us are also very unhappy with the antisemitism problems in Labour.

Yes, fully accept that. Which doesn't mean I will agree with you in all particulars about the nature of the problem or how it should be dealt with.

[CumbrianLefty]

"you are clearly a diehard Labour and Corbyn supporter"

I have always been Labour yes, but did not vote for JC in either leadership election.

That doesn't mean I have to buy into the ultra-negative view of him people like you have. Even more so since the man himself doesn't matter as much as what he represents.

[CumbrianLefty]

"you are clearly a diehard Labour and Corbyn supporter"

I have always been Labour yes, but did not vote for JC in either leadership election.

That doesn't mean I have to buy into the ultra-negative view of him people like you have. Even more so since the man himself doesn't matter as much as what he represents.

You are clearly a partisan who doesn't care what the Lib Dems do, you'll go on hating them.

I have always known their, ahem, "foibles" - it is the stuff of legend that Labour and Tory activists get on better with each other than they do with LibDems, who are widely seen as totally unscrupulous opportunists - but the fact remains that several left-leaning voters were much better disposed towards them prior to 2010. Brexit was making some of them at least willing to cautiously forgive and forget, but the risk of the past week is that they are remind of why they developed such an animus.

IMO that is a reasonably fair and objective summary of things.

[CumbrianLefty]

Will at least consider backing Corbyn - SNP, Plaid, Greens, a handful of "rebel" Tories.

Will (at present) not consider - LibDems, whatever ChUK is now called, a few other "rebel" Tories.

From this, some seem to be concluding Corbyn has the problem.

Isn't it, at least arguably, as much those who are still holding out?

[CumbrianLefty]

I think everyone is making a fatal flaw in their assumptions here. People who left Labour to the Lib Dems aren't going to like Corbyn... so why would they side with him here?

Because they prioritise stopping no deal. Not exactly difficult to wrap your head round is it

As the latest YouGov findings confirm.

[CumbrianLefty]

There is right now an effective Tory majority of 1 in the Commons - that's why there is talk of a VONC passing in the first place.

So if Corbyn (or indeed some hypothetical "unity" figure) could get all non-Tory MPs behind them, they would at least have a chance.

It is that which is the problem, rather than lots of Tory "rebels" failing to materialise.

[CumbrianLefty]

Alternatively, find some other way of avoiding no deal. But time is running out there.

[CumbrianLefty]

Of course it exists, Corbyn can create it any time he wants.

I have to say, the idea people like you seem to have that Labour MPs would support some unelected "grandee" en masse - even if Corbyn said they should, itself highly unlikely - is far more improbable than that the leader of the opposition should be made PM for a few weeks to do literally one thing.

Total magical thinking.

[CumbrianLefty]

The point is, all but a literal handful *will* support him in a VoNC and then as temporary PM.

[CumbrianLefty]

And the same holds for any hypothetical "third party" figure.

[CumbrianLefty]

Also, Ruth Davidson is resigning as Scottish Conservative leader.

Which could actually be highly significant in several ways.

[CumbrianLefty]

Democracy: just a minor inconvenience to be brushed away in modern Britain

Democracy: my side lost the vote so now we demand a second vote on the first vote!

Just asking, how long should a vote taken in 2016 remain totally unchallengably sacrosanct?

(if we had voted to leave by over 60% it might be a different matter - but amongst other things the march of demographics - older voters passing away, younger ones being enfranchised - means that *even if nobody else changed their vote* a rerun today would be a literal photo finish)

[CumbrianLefty]

Democracy: just a minor inconvenience to be brushed away in modern Britain

Democracy: my side lost the vote so now we demand a second vote on the first vote!

Just asking, how long should a vote taken in 2016 remain totally unchallengably sacrosanct?

(if we had voted to leave by over 60% it might be a different matter - but amongst other things the march of demographics - older voters passing away, younger ones being enfranchised - means that *even if nobody else changed their vote* a rerun today would be a literal photo finish)

I don't disagree, but it sets a bit of a dangerous precedent whereby popular will can be eroded away by time and inactivity.

And to some extent I can sympathise with that, I have never been one of the #FBPE crowd.

But the fact is that, with some honourable exceptions, the winning side in the referendum have taken it as a mandate to do whatever they wish - despite the narrowness of the result. And they got greedy and decided only the hardest Brexit would do (often as part of a twisted "culture war" platform)

A "threshold" for the referendum above a bare plurality might have avoided a lot of angst.

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe if Labour and even Lib Dems didn’t reject every deal May offered , this day may not have come . The fact is Corbyn wants No Deal Brexit which is why he torpedoed every Deal Brexit , as once the deadline passes no deal Brexit will happen.


Yes Boris shouldn’t have done this but this day wouldn’t have come if the parliament accepted Theresa May’s deal

That's nonsense. If Corbyn can't get remain, then he wants Norway Plus, which is about the opposite of no deal Brexit.

Except Corbyn would probably quite like a No Deal Brexit provided the Tories get all of the blame for it. Corbyn does not like the EU out of principle (his half-hearted act fools exactly no one) and a No Deal exit would cause the kind of chaos that would be quite likely to propel him into Downing Street to implement his socialist agenda, with the added bonus that he wouldn't have any of those pesky EU rules getting in the way.

Corbyn has consistently opposed a no deal Brexit basically from day one. Its actually been one of the few constant Labour positions since June 2016 FFS.

But the conspiracy theorists know better about his "real" intentions, of course.......

Everybody knows that he is a long term Eurosceptic - but perhaps in his case he is a "sceptic" in the genuine (and indeed original) sense of the word. Rather than a Europhobe little Englander, cynical disaster capitalist or simply (as with our new PM) an amoral opportunist?

[CumbrianLefty]

That is the dream scenario for him, yes.

But the hostages to fortune in it are considerable - not least the presumption that remainers will stay "divided". One of the encouraging things about yesterday's nationwide action is that it showed the potential for unity amongst his opponents. To put it another way, after this week's events only a tiny hardcore alt-centrist #FBPE minority still see Corbyn as a bigger enemy than Johnson now.

Did brilliant four dimensional chess galaxy brain Cummings see this happening, I wonder?