UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[parochial boy]

Could he not have done this a week ago and crashed the exchange rate while I was actually in Britain?

It would have saved me quite a bit of money

[parochial boy]

And really what I think this shows is how absurdly weak Britain's constitution-slash-constitutional-conventions actually is/are - ironically (or not), made all the weaker by David "quick fix" Cameron

[parochial boy]

I mean great, if you want to keep on seeing Corbyn as an enemy, you can go on sitting on the moral high ground while Britain crashes out of the EU and tens of millions of people suffer the consequences.

Just because you want to try and pretend that high taxes and nationalisation are somehow just as evil as what the Conservative party are currently doing.

[parochial boy]

I mean, the obvious point would be that unless you have a formal mechanism by which referendums are triggered, then they are always going to be a crap way of making policy. Because they are essentially never going to be anything more than arbitrary in terms of when and why they are held

[parochial boy]

> making conclusions based on the trends of one YouGov poll

On the back of that poll, I think that we can safely conclude that YouGov stand to make a lot of money if a general election is called

[parochial boy]

Seeing as it has been hinted at by certain members of the government - assuming Johnson is mandated to ask the EU for an article 50 extension, but just doesn't actually do it, what happens then? That would technically be breaking the law right? Would he get prosecuted for it?

Also, I want some of whatever Old School Republican is smoking.

[parochial boy]

So in the last day or two we've got a couple of polls that look ok for the Tories, and a couple that look pretty bad. My own particular take is that anyone claiming to know what an election would look like (before or after October 31) is only lying to themselves.

[parochial boy]

Hungary's already on fairly unstable ground with the rest of the EU - dunno why Orban would want to play the martyr and sour relations even further just to help Boris.

Also, I'm wondering - if parliament is prorogued as of tomorrow - how do any of the mooted ideas like amending the FTPA or a vote of no confidence even occur?

[parochial boy]

Which would rule out a pre-31s election, no? Given the minimum 25 day campaign period? In which case it kind of looks like Boris has played himself

[parochial boy]

Thought as far as the Chavez analogy goes - I'd point out the unelected incumbent PM has (probably illegally) suspended the elected parliament; and is now claiming that he will break the law in order to pursue an ideological policy agenda that will lead to an economic collapse and shortages of things like medicine and food

[parochial boy]

I can't help that think that the route that Swinson is taking is actually making a Brexit (of the no deal sorts) more likely. But then again, I also think that she is aware of that, only she is more interested in recreating the Lib Dems as a brand than in actually adhering to her apparent principles (Cameron era minister, let's not forget).

You would hope that people would be able to see through this; but then again, the Lib Dems target voters are essentially the insufferably smug. You know, the kind of numbskull who voted  Conservative in 2015 because Ed Millibans was too radical...

[parochial boy]

Its also YouGov, who routinely gives lower Labour scores than other pollsters (which also helps explain how they provided most - even if not all - of the surveys putting the LibDems ahead of them earlier this year)

And who got 2017 correct (along with the EU Elections I think?)

They wildly overrated the Brexit party in May; and were as wrong as everyone else in 2015.

Safest to assume that any pollsters success the last time round won't have any bearing on how well they do this time round. YouGov just have a marketing strategy tendancy to come out with particularly gimmicky/attention grabbing numbers.

[parochial boy]

Tbf re-a Maltese veto; it is well known that there are very few things Joseph Muscat won't do if the price is right.

Maybe just stay away from cars for the next few years afterwards...

[parochial boy]

So Boris gets a deal by *checks notes* totally capitulating?

Oh well done, good stuff, definitely worth the 12 month drama

[parochial boy]

Is the deal really that dead? Surely the likes of Kinnock-the-lesser and Caroline Flint in Labout plus some of the Tory-21 give it a reasonable chance?

[parochial boy]

My memory of the one GE I was living in the UK for was that garden signs were more an indicator how wealthy / transient the population of an area was than anything else