UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

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Damn, surprised he fired Mordaunt.

Also is Gove the last survivor of the first Cameron ministry?

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Ruth Davidson has resigned as Scottish Tory leader.

Also, Lord Young of Cookham i.e. George Young, former Cabinet minister, has resigned as a junior whip over this.

... Honestly didn't know that a thatcher cabinet minister still had a government position. Don't you love the Lords?

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Ruth Davidson has resigned as Scottish Tory leader.

Also, Lord Young of Cookham i.e. George Young, former Cabinet minister, has resigned as a junior whip over this.

... Honestly didn't know that a thatcher cabinet minister still had a government position. Don't you love the Lords?

Thatcher's Scotland and Defence Secretary was George Younger. George Young was Major's last Transport Secretary. Still been in Parliament in some capacity since 1974, though.

actually I was thinking of David Lord Young, the Industry Secretary who replaced Tebbitt, but thanks. Weird how common the name is for Tories.

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The smartest thing for Boris to do would be to call an election with No Deal as the official manifesto, allow BP to die, deselect anybody who can't accept that it's part of the manifesto, roll over the divided Remainers and pretend to the tired public that no deal would represent an end to this stupid phase.

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The smartest thing for Boris to do would be to call an election with No Deal as the official manifesto, allow BP to die, deselect anybody who can't accept that it's part of the manifesto, roll over the divided Remainers and pretend to the tired public that no deal would represent an end to this stupid phase.

Is it that smart, though? Standing on a manifesto to pursue a hard Brexit with a deal was what the Tories did in 2017; UKIP collapsed and they *still* didn't win. A manifesto with an explicit no-deal pledge (rather than as a last resort if a deal is impossible), as Farage has insisted would be required,  seems much more likely to be a net vote loser for the Tories. Sure, they might pick up a lot of Brexit Party support in the midlands and the north, but most of those seats have such huge Labour margins it wouldn't win the Tories many seats. Meanwhile, a no deal platform could see the Tories lose everything they have in Scotland, London, and any university/market towns in the SE.

Maybe I'm more pessimestic than you, because I think there are a fair decent number of seats in areas like South Yorkshire and Tees Valley that could fall in such an election - at least more than the total Tory seats in England and Wales that would probably fall in the event of a Hard Brexit manifesto (especially if Lib Dems are hiving off the Hard Remainers from Labour's total numbers in the aforementioned market towns etc).

Even London etc is tricky. We already saw the cocky predictions that Labour made for the locals, where they confidently stated the pro-Labour trend in London was inevitable. The three Barnet marginals, for example, are going to be a hard get for Labour, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dem vote becomes vastly inflated in such areas. Besides, the more pro-Brexit outer suburbs which liked BoJo in his Mayoral runs (for example, Jon Cruddas's Dagenham seat) could offset probable losses like Mark Field in the Cities of London and Westminster.

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do you feel the tories are going to lose some of their Surrey strongholds then?

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Can't think of any likely Alliance gains aside from Belfast East and South unless they start actually showing leads, but that's good nonetheless (even if polling in that region has been historically garbage).

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The issue is, the referendum was always too vague to be an accurate litmus test of the public (which is why most analysts simply read their own pet theories into the results). Rather than "Leave" being a clear choice that Brexit Britain will go down (e.g. "Britain will leave the EU and enter into EFTA" or whatever) it was just "Leave". which is how we have the absurd sight of Brexiteers who once proclaimed Switzerland and Norway as exemplars during the referendum denouncing Norway as some kind of colonial annex of the EU.

I mean, say what you like about the SNP: people voting Yes in the 2014 referendum knew what they were voting for, and the kind of independence the government were pushing for.

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> making conclusions based on the trends of one YouGov poll

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The real concern about Corbyn is possible capital flight...

No. The real concern about Corbyn is the possibility that he might well be how one says 'Francois Hollande' in English.

damn you think he'll bang top celebrities in Downing Street?

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honestly following BritainElects on Twitter and realising how dumb partisan of all sides are is very amusing. People read so much into these random polls.

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https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1186839/brexit-news-boris-johnson-hungary-viktor-orban-nigel-farage-dominic-grieve-no-deal

Hungary angle again.  I think a better EU country for Johnson to bribe would be Malta.  Something like a promise of a naval base in return for a veto.

 Probably too late to respect the results of the 1956 referendum on our end.

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tbh it's basically cemented my conviction for electoral reform and PR. What I can't stand if the vanity of any faction that proclaims themselves the true voice of Labour voters: maybe it's best if we actually see what the ordinary people feel by having multiple left parties competing rather than the factional intrigue effectively taking the decision out of the hands of normal non-political humans.

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In banter news, yet another UKIP AM has left the party in Wales, leading Neil Hamilton to lead a caucus consisting of ... himself.