UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[Blair]

The funny thing is that this is actually what people were wanting for ages; a cabinet which chucks out the useless ministers (Grayling, Bradley, Clark, Brokenshire etc) and puts in people from the newer intake who are actually good in the media, and who you could see as future leadership candidates.

The junior ministers will be very interesting; largely because they do a lot of work in the Commons and within MPs, and also because that's how you see who's on the up....

I still don't get giving Patel Home Sec... she's never held a real domestic cabinet job, and was sacked from her last one for gross incompetence.

[Blair]

The Lib Dem’s need to accept that you need someone anti no deal in No.10 to guarantee an extension, and that Labour will not let that be anyone other than the Leader of the Opposition.

LOTO need to understand that Corbyn is too toxic (and too much of a political goldmine) for the Lib Dem’s to put him into No.10.

We can guess where this ends...

[Blair]

So if Corbyn (or indeed some hypothetical "unity" figure) could get all non-Tory MPs behind them, they would at least have a chance.

Again, the issue isn't Corbyn. It is in the interest of Change UK and their spin-offs to have an election as late as possible, so their MPs don't get unemployed.

Well not really- all of change know they’re going to lose/retire so they’d happily back a Harman Govt in extending/revoking A50 and bowing out- the biggest egos and ones most worried about losing are Chukka, Heidi and Wollaston- all of whom are expected to run as Lib Dem’s and have a tiny chance of being elected.

They’re entire existence is about not thinking JC is fit to be Leader of Labour- so why would they make him PM when an alternative to stopping Brexit exists

[Blair]

The irony of course being that we’re watching the Italian System deal with a right wing egotist much more effectively than our own system; everyone has been saying for months (and years) just how rotten are system is- all it takes is a push and our entire system will collapse.

Thank God for Bercow; and this has certainly focused minds. The biggest danger was that the opposition would keep bickering and fumbling; but now there’s a clear objective to stop parliament being shut down, or at the least legislate to stop no deal.

[Blair]

Much more effectively? Silvio Berlusconi says otherwise...

I meant more so with how their head of state dealt with the election request; but of course it’s apples and oranges

[Blair]

To echo Badgers point it’s also a redundant argument when you consider that there is no detailed method of leaving with a democratic mandate. The best we have is the vague 2017 manifesto commitments which considering the 2017 result don’t mean much.

Do we leave with a Norway Style Deal, do we leave with Mays Deal, do we leave with no-Deal, or do we leave with Corbyn weird deal? Every option will still be seen as unfavourable by one segment of the ‘Leave Coalition’.

The problem with Brexit has always been the vast difference is what it’s various supporters think it means.

[Blair]

I really think the timescale of a US-UK Trade Deal is being really exaggerated (both by the weird Atlantist eurosceptics, the Trump administration and the FBPE crowd)

Seeing as the EU-US TTIP took what 5+ years and then died, and the length and complexities of the EU-Canada deal, I can't see one being done and signed off when either Trump or Pelosi are in power.

[Blair]

Both the Lib Dem’s and Green can’t flip a switch- it’s a choice for local party members

[Blair]

Looks like the Hobbit in the speaker's chair would rather retire to the shire than risk losing his seat in the election

I'll give you C- for the effort.

All I'm saying is that Bercow's behavior is perfectly explained when you realize that he's 5 foot 5

Ah a second quip about his height from yourself; and of course a snarky comment won't change the fact that he's been absolutely crucial in allowing MPs to do their jobs, and in helping parliament to stop the complete chaos of no-deal.

It just makes you look like a bit of a tosser really.

[Blair]

Well yes even if Remain won 20 million votes the usual suspects would denounce it, and be outraged by it because there is an entire industry in outraged euroscepticism- hence why people like Bill Cash didn't vote for the deal because he couldn't bare to stop talking about how the deal was a betrayal.

The reality is that Brexit has become a cultural flash point, and whatever the result is it will significantly piss of a large segement of the political class, and the wider public.

[Blair]

Guys; a Comres poll came out last night with the Tories on 28, and Labour on 27

The lesson of 2017 wasn't that a large poll lead can collapse; but mainly that polling in British General Elections is erratic, and unpredictable.

Uhh, I’m sorry, with everything that’s been happening, how the f**k are the Tories actually gaining in the polls?

because risking the country to a UK Hugo Chavez would be far far worse than Hard Brexit

Have you read operation Yellowhammer? Why do you keep polluting this thread with your hilariously woeful 'takes'.

[Blair]

Guys; a Comres poll came out last night with the Tories on 28, and Labour on 27

The lesson of 2017 wasn't that a large poll lead can collapse; but mainly that polling in British General Elections is erratic, and unpredictable.

Uhh, I’m sorry, with everything that’s been happening, how the f**k are the Tories actually gaining in the polls?

because risking the country to a UK Hugo Chavez would be far far worse than Hard Brexit

Have you read operation Yellowhammer? Why do you keep polluting this thread with your hilariously woeful 'takes'.

Chavez 2.0 is still worse

I'm torn between copying and pasting sections of Yellowhammer, and asking how on earth a Corbyn Government would lead to fuel shortages, a lack of fresh food, and poisonous water but you're either posting here in bad faith or just unable to do any form of intellectual thought that I'm not going to bother, and ask you follow JoeRepublic's advice.

[Blair]

Its also YouGov, who routinely gives lower Labour scores than other pollsters (which also helps explain how they provided most - even if not all - of the surveys putting the LibDems ahead of them earlier this year)

And who got 2017 correct (along with the EU Elections I think?)

[Blair]

Yes to all the above (and I made a point about it’s above before) but I’m still terrified by the prospect that these polls and are right and the short campaign won’t change them and we’ll look back at this period as the same way we look back at late ‘14-15- as a time when we ignored that our leader was a huge block for labour winning an election

[Blair]

And anyway, people could have also preferred a softer Brexit and thought May's deal was too economically damaging. Additionally, it was quite far from what the Leave campaign promised, and certainly didn't appear to be the 'will of the people', so MPs were right to vote their conscience and think that Remain is a better outcome and voters deserve a chance to revisit the issue.

In hindsight it really is criminal just how much the Leave Campaign got away with any scrutiny.

The Leave Campaign promised we'd keep all the benefits, without ever having to trigger Article 50. Of course the leave campaign was a campaign- it was never a coherent campaign for governing, and I reckon if you sat down the 10 or so MPs who lead it and asked 'ok you're going to win what happens now?' you'd get 8 people scratching their head, one person saying Norway and someone saying second referendum.

[Blair]

Strong rumours that the Watson business is really about Corbyn being about to step down soon (he may even announce it in his big speech next week) and his "deputy" not then automatically stepping into his shoes even temporarily when he does. Not least because many genuinely fear that he would try to rig any leadership contest in his faction's favour.

And though not many in the media (who see very chummy with him now, what a contrast to the phone hacking days eh?) will report this, Watson p***ed off people well beyond the "usual suspects" with his recent gratuitously clumsy intervention on Brexit - his demand that a GE be delayed for several months in the (almost certainly chimerical, without one) pursuit of a referendum was greatly ill-judged, and supported by hardly anybody.

Add to that the undoubted fact (just ask any almost random CLP meeting) that most members who voted for him in 2015 would certainly not do so now (many thinking he won on a thoroughly cynical if not false prospectus) and things were always likely to come to a head at some point.

But to do anything as Labour Leader you need an NEC majority; even as acting leader I can’t see what Tom could do to rig the next election, and they were passing rules to completely limit the power of a deputy.

This is no different to when they stopped Emily Thornberry from doing PMQs, when they changed Clive Lewis speech on trident in the TelePrompTer, when they changed the GS UNITE election or when introduced ridiculous new trigger rules; it’s all about punishing people who aren’t part of LOTO and the Unite Axis. Yes it’s politics, yes the New Labour Machine did it in the early years but it’s still vicious, and it’s still making the party miserable at times.

Seeing as most of the Tory press are baying for his blood over the Paedophile ring I don’t think it’s that true? Both sides within labour know how to text and brief journalists- it’s not 2015 and JCs team are more than able to do it when they want.

And to sound like a smug idiot I voted for Tom in 2015 knowing full well what he was- a trade union fixer on the right of the party who knew how to campaign well. If they wanted someone from the campaign group they should have ran someone.

[Blair]

Lol So asking the queen to progue parliament is unconstitutional but asking the queen to topple a PM isnt


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/johnson-s-foes-plot-a-humble-attempt-to-oust-him-as-premier

AHHHHHHH can you please learn how our political system works before commenting?

[Blair]

No A50 extension won’t mean a ‘hard brexit’- it means a no-Deal Brexit, which means all 500 transitional arrangements, agreements and procedures are gone. As I’ve posted many times this will mean the police will lose key tools to catch criminals, ports will face delays, prices will go and etc.

God knows what will happen to people reliant on food banks, or any govt services when the whole of Whitehall will be focused on keeping medicine coming. God knows what happens if there’s a huge flood, a NHS winter crisis or any other event which needs govt response..

Besides, TMs Deal is a hard Brexit. A hard Brexit is any form of Brexit that is not soff- e.g full membership of Customs & single market.

It’s laughable that brexiteers have more from Norway, to Mays Deal, to ‘bin the backstop’ to ‘no deal’. It’s like going from a Porsche to a space hopper.

[Blair]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1186839/brexit-news-boris-johnson-hungary-viktor-orban-nigel-farage-dominic-grieve-no-deal

Hungary angle again.  I think a better EU country for Johnson to bribe would be Malta.  Something like a promise of a naval base in return for a veto.

It’s worth remembering  the current Brexit argument (the Irish border) is solely about the EU protecting it’s smaller nation states; Malta or Hungary aren’t going to through the EU under a bus for a government with no parliamentary majority.

What good is a naval base for Malta? It’s like me hospitalising my dad in exchange for a motorbike (I cant drive)

[Blair]

Very surprised to see people miss the key point; the only thing that matters in terms of a caretaker is who has a majority. Doesn't matter if they're party leader, universally popular or the only way to stop no deal.... you still need Philip Hammond, John Woodcock and Sylvia Hermon to vote for a confidence motion.

It's a quirk of our system that we've yet to have a constitutional struggle with two people trying to get into No.10 in a hung parliament- in this situation the only thing that matters is getting a majority of MPs. We're the first parliament in a long time to have so many independents- a large chunk of who actively despise their leadership. Add in the number of retiring MPs, the ideological divisions, the culture war quality of Brexit & the ability of previously unknown MPs (Francois, Burt, Baker, Rees-Mogg, Grieve) toforge much larger profiles because of Brexit... makes this much more complex.

I've had to explain to politically aware people that yes, the commons could wake up declare a motion of no-confidence and install anyone if they wanted

But the LibDems are "compromising" on *what*, exactly? An alternate universe in which Swinson with all of 18 MPs (at time of posting) actually becomes prime minister??

As usual, it is the left that is expected to concede to the centre.

If Labour had a majority, Corbyn would be PM.

If the LibDems had a majority, Swinson would be PM.

Neither has a majority, so neither will be PM. Who does become PM will require a negotiation (one where Labour obviously has more bargaining power). It's really not that hard to understand if you stop being a hack for five minutes.

David Cameron didn't have a majority and he became PM. Theresa May didn't have a majority and she became PM. And furthermore, every election in my country since 1996 has been a hung parliament, and never once did one party get to dictate to another who its leader and who the Prime Minister was.

But the UK system has numerous examples of one party dictating- Jeremy Thorpe wanted to support Heath after '74 but his party blocked it, Clegg demanded that Gordon Brown stand down as PM in the brief Lab-Lib '10 discussions (a move Brown & Labour accepted) and it was widely accepted that Miliband would demand Clegg quit in a 2015 hung parliament.

And DC and TM did both have majorities; they just were reliant on other parties for said majority. If say Anne Widdecombe had won 290 odd seats in 2010 the Liberal Democrats would have been a lot less likely to put her into office, and the DUP were prepared to put May into No.10 because she offered a sh**t ton of money & the alternative was the risk of Jeremy Corbyn.

[Blair]

The antisemitism is very much a real and systematic issue within Labour. It does predate Corbyn, but he has consistently failed to do anything about it and been dismissive of people who have been sounding the alarm.

Someone like Luciana Berger shouldn't by any right have joined Umunna's centrist vanity project, and almost certainly wouldn't have if her party hadn't treated her like an outcast.

In the inquiry, 0.08% of Labour members were found to have engaged in antisemitic behavior and ejected. 

Obviously all anti-semitic behavior is objectionable and wrong, but are we really to believe that the general British public (or the conservative party for that matter) has less anti-semitism than that and that this is an outrageous scandal?

Because of the way the anti-semitism scandal has been exaggerated by the media, Brits believe when asked by pollsters that something like 35% of labour members are anti-semitic, which is a gross overestimation.

Also, I have yet to find Corbyn or Labour's current leadership do or say anything that is genuinely anti-Semitic, and it seems to a (admittedly not terribly close) observer like its the same smear that goes in America, i.e., if you criticize Israel's government and you support increased autonomy / rights for Palestinians, that means you must of course hate Jews / be a self-hating Jew.

Please ignore this very bad take from someone who has is using hashed talking points from twitter to downplay antisemitism in Labour- an issue currently being investigated by the EHCR- a statutory equalities body.

[Blair]

Labour MPs have apparently been warned that they won't be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again if they vote for a deal

Oh for f**k's sake.

Labour has the biggest interest in settling the Brexit issue once and for all. If they'd voted for May's deal, chances are they wouldn't be polling at 20% right now.

Not true; all the polling shows labour is bleeding votes to the Liberal Democrat’s and Greens (50% of our 2017 vote)

And of course Theresa Mays deal was historically hated by Brexit supporters.

Besides Leave voters hate Corbyn/labour because of immigration, trident, etc etc; not because of his view of the regulatory alignment.

[Blair]

Labour MPs have apparently been warned that they won't be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again if they vote for a deal

Oh for f**k's sake.

Labour has the biggest interest in settling the Brexit issue once and for all. If they'd voted for May's deal, chances are they wouldn't be polling at 20% right now.

They aren't polling at 20% in any poll right now.

And their poll drop is significantly down to remain voters having bought the media/#FBPE line that Corbyn "wants Brexit" (regardless of his actual public statements and votes on it since 2016)

LibDems are literally praying Labour votes for any Johnson deal.

(spoiler alert - its not going to happen)

The whole Brexit debate radicalized because May's deal couldn't get through, convincing a bunch of people that no deal or revoke were the only viable paths. Pass May's deal, and radicalization never takes place. People would probably agree it's a pretty bad deal, but then everybody would move on to the bread-and-butter issues that Labour has an advantage on.

This isn’t actually true; like it might have been true in 2017 but the issue had become polarised well before May had MV1- there’s a reason it lost by so much.

It’s certainly true that things have got a lot worse since; but I still don’t see how labour bailing out the Tories over the biggest and most political issue would go down well with either the members or the party’s voters.

[Blair]

May's deal was rubbish, any Johnson deal will be worse. No self-respecting leftist would back them.

May negotiated the best deal that the UK could've gotten, given the limited leverage that a country leaving the EU has. But then again, no self-respecting Brit would've voted to leave in the first place.

Single Market & Customs Union is a much better deal; it’s a pointless form of Brexit but at least upholds a relative amount of stability for business.

[Blair]

The 13 unknown are:

Ivan Lewis (IND) against
Anne Milton (IND) against
Mike Hill (IND) against
Amber Rudd (IND) for
Richard Benyon (IND) for public
Justine Greening (IND) against
Philip Hammond (IND) against
Jared O'Mara (IND) no vote
Margot James (IND) for public
Stephen Kinnock (LAB) against
Melanie Onn (LAB) for public
Jim Fitzpatrick (LAB) for
Kate Hoey (LAB) against

But Kinnock and Hammond should be for and Hoey against. How do you expect the rest to vote?