UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[Helsinkian]

If this is true then Labour supporters need to stop deriding Boris as an "unelected Prime Minister"; he wants a chance to be elected but you are refusing it.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1168938164314132481

[jaichind]

Consolidation around CON and LAB

[DaWN]

Consolidation around CON and LAB

A friendly reminder things can always get worse

[jaichind]

If it comes to an election I wonder if LDEM will form an alliance with the Greens.  Doing so can greatly threaten the CON in the South as such an alliance can draw anti-CON LAB tactical voters.  Not sure if such an alliance can work in practice. 

[Tintrlvr]

If it comes to an election I wonder if LDEM will form an alliance with the Greens.  Doing so can greatly threaten the CON in the South as such an alliance can draw anti-CON LAB tactical voters.  Not sure if such an alliance can work in practice. 

They were very close to establishing such an alliance last month. It got put on hold seemingly by the kerfuffle over whether the LDs would support Corbyn as a replacement PM for Johnson. But the fundamental problem is that there's a severe dearth of seats where the LDs can reasonably be asked to stand aside for the Greens, which makes such an alliance unappealing for the Greens.

[Blair]

Both the Lib Dem’s and Green can’t flip a switch- it’s a choice for local party members

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

> making conclusions based on the trends of one YouGov poll

[parochial boy]

> making conclusions based on the trends of one YouGov poll

On the back of that poll, I think that we can safely conclude that YouGov stand to make a lot of money if a general election is called

[Oryxslayer]

> making conclusions based on the trends of one YouGov poll

Not just one poll:



If the Leave vote is able to coalesce, which is easier then uniting the Remain vote, then that's a GE victory. TBH it is already occurring since the early-august creation of this chart: the Brexit party is flailing and Farage is now begging for scraps from the the Conservatives now that he lacks a guaranteed personal seat in Parliament.  The only way for the Remainers to reverse this fate is to team up - running alone and hoping voters act strategically isn't enough. A remain govt requires the LDs strength in the Remain/Tory south, Labour's seats to hold in the Brexit north, and the SNP to not distract both from the battles in the south.

[jaichind]

Recent CON support in recent polls looks a lot like CON support right before the 2015 election.  Brexit party support in recent polls looks a lot like UKIP support right before the 2015 election.  What is different is that LAB support is lower and LDEM and Green support are higher.  What is key are how the LAB and LDEM support are structured which could drive anti-CON tactical voting.  If Johnson loses the vote in Parliament and manage to get a election the circumstances will drive Brexit party tactical voting for CON.

[jaichind]

[Pericles]

[Lumine]

And now, in the greatest of ironies:

https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1168976706683711494

[Pericles]

Result coming in around 15 minutes.

[Pericles]

This has been pointed out many times, but the hypocrisy of the Brexiteer serial rebels getting rewarded with cabinet positions while anti-no deal rebels losing the whips is disgusting. While too many Tories have put career and party before country, the likely decisive few who put country before party and career should be commended.

[Sestak]

AYE 328

NAY 301

[Pericles]

Aye 328-301 no.

[Gass3268]

Damn 27 vote margin!

[Pericles]

Some cheeky guy shouts out "not a good start Boris!" lol. True, he has lost the first ever parliamentary vote of his premiership, which seems pretty special.

[Sestak]

Johnson confirms he is tabling a dissolution under FTPA.

[Gass3268]

Some cheeky guy shouts out "not a good start Boris!" lol. True, he has lost the first ever parliamentary vote of his premiership, which seems pretty special.

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1168968530307497985?s=20

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very poor response from Johnson to the defeat - incoherent ranting. Corbyn confirms Labour's position as to support an election only if No Deal is negated.

[YL]

Tory Ayes (21):

Guto Bebb
Richard Benyon
Steve Brine
Alistair Burt
Greg Clark
Ken Clarke
David Gauke
Justine Greening
Dominic Grieve
Sam Gyimah
Philip Hammond
Stephen Hammond
Richard Harrington
Margot James
Oliver Letwin
Anne Milton
Caroline Nokes
Antoinette Sandbach
Nicholas Soames
Rory Stewart
Ed Vaizey

I can't help thinking there's more substance there than in what'll be left of the parliamentary Tory party if they have the whip withdrawn as rumoured.  (Insert joke about Soames here.)

[YL]

Non-Tory/DUP Noes:

Kate Hoey (Lab)
John Mann (Lab)
Ian Austin (Ind, ex-Lab)
Charlie Elphicke (Ind, suspended Con)
Ivan Lewis (Ind, ex-Lab)

Four Independents didn't vote: Hopkins, O'Mara, Williamson, Woodcock.  Neither did two Labour MPs: Kevin Barron and Derek Twigg.  Of course there may be good reasons for these other than intentional abstentions.  EDIT: there were in Twigg's case.

[YL]

Apparently Leadsom says the whip won't be withdrawn now, but perhaps it will be if they vote against the government again tomorrow.