UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[DaWN]

The Lib Dems have an unenviable choice here but I think it's pretty clear what they should do. Back down and put the senile hard-Brexiteering lunatic in office and they lose every vote they have gained since early this year

As polls confirm, they have gained a lot of that support from Labour.

And that isn't - whatever some may like to believe - because those people have been (re)converted to the virtues of neoliberal centrism, it is because many of them are very worried about Brexit (especially the prospect of crashing out without a deal) and came to view the once quite effective Labour/Corbyn "constructive ambiguity" on the topic as more like evasion and duplicity.

I'd caution with this approach. No, nobody is voting specifically for centrist neoliberalism (least of all me) but putting down the movement to the Lib Dems entirely to Brexit might not be entirely accurate. It was probably the catalyst for the recent large movement but I think a general fatigue with Corbyn was a large factor as well.

Corbyn putting Swinson on the spot like this was thus smart politics as well as objectively the right thing to do to maximise the chances of avoiding no deal. Always a good combination.

"Support ME and only ME and nobody other than ME" is sadly probably what passes for good politics these days, so I'll concede that point (with reservations discussed below)

And she handled it poorly, too many LibDems have let the Euro elections especially go to their heads.

Yeah, going to have to agree to disagree here. I do mean this in the nicest possible way, but what you think on this doesn't really matter that much - you are clearly a diehard Labour and Corbyn supporter, you were never going to be a Lib Dem voter in any circumstances and thus your opinion doesn't factor into that of Swinson or any other senior Lib Dem. Nobody who likes Corbyn is voting Lib Dem, and therefore anyone outraged that he's been denied number 10 by this was probably not in Swinson's electoral calculations to begin with. Sure, there'll be some voters who are annoyed at the course of action they've taken, but I think taking a short term hit from this (and of course, Lib Dem social media is pumping out the 'we tried guvnor, honest' stuff which is a bit disingenuous but does what it needs to do) is, as I said, the best of two very bad choices. Soon enough, all of this will be forgotten once Brexit produces the next shiny object for the media to fawn over, whereas if she decides to prop up Corbyn, all the moderate voters (and yes, they do exist. If Corbyn was a diehard remainer he would still be struggling, even if not as much, because his rhetoric if not his policies are not popular) would bolt and the party would be back to the Farron days if they were lucky. Corbyn and the media have put Swinson in a tought spot but I think she's taken the correct course, even if it doesn't seem like it now.

In any case, even if Swinson did fold, any Corbyn led government would need the SNP, and the SNP will do exactly what benefits the SNP and nothing else.  I'm not certain that would be Prime Minister Corbyn. Certainly wouldn't benefit the bloody country but that's of course my opinion and irrelevant to the wider analytical discussion.

[CumbrianLefty]

"you are clearly a diehard Labour and Corbyn supporter"

I have always been Labour yes, but did not vote for JC in either leadership election.

That doesn't mean I have to buy into the ultra-negative view of him people like you have. Even more so since the man himself doesn't matter as much as what he represents.

[DaWN]

"you are clearly a diehard Labour and Corbyn supporter"

I have always been Labour yes, but did not vote for JC in either leadership election.

That doesn't mean I have to buy into the ultra-negative view of him people like you have. Even more so since the man himself doesn't matter as much as what he represents.

Which is perfectly fine and fair enough, but it doesn't change my argument that you were never going to be a Lib Dem voter and therefore you might not be able to fairly judge the impact of these shenanigans on someone who would be a potential Lib Dem voter. Someone who likes Corbyn at this point is voting Labour - therefore, I don't see the Lib Dem rejection of Corbyn as a very large issue for them.

[JerryArkansas]

"you are clearly a diehard Labour and Corbyn supporter"

I have always been Labour yes, but did not vote for JC in either leadership election.

That doesn't mean I have to buy into the ultra-negative view of him people like you have. Even more so since the man himself doesn't matter as much as what he represents.

You are clearly a partisan who doesn't care what the Lib Dems do, you'll go on hating them.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

The danger for the Lib Dems isn't that people who like Corbyn will stop voting for them (which I agree there are very few of) but that those who lent them a vote to stop Brexit think they're blocking an attempt to stop no deal. You don't have to like Corbyn to think it was a tactical error to rule out a government lead by him before any discussions happened, something that neither the SNP, Plaid or Greens or even a couple of Tory rebels did.

The Lib Dem problem is that you can't court Conservative Remain voters in the south without losing dissatisfied Labour voters elsewhere. Not really a controversial statement.

[Zaybay]

The problem for the Lib Dems in this scenario isnt the logistics of a Unity Government or even the terms it would be on, its the optics.

For the voters who left Labour to side with the Lib Dems over Brexit, this doesnt look good, and the possibility of defection back to Labour is significant(the rock).

For other voters in the Lib Dems and the leadership, even discussing with Corbyn is a horrid move, one that they could never stomach(a hard place).

Only time will tell how this issue evolves, but so far Labour has the optics advantage.

[Shadows]

Libdems are a fraud & will from less than 15 seats to less 10 next election. The party has no future & is dying. No agenda & was only an anti-Brexit party. Now they are not ready to stop a No Deal Brexit & support Corbyn when Greens Plaid Cymru SNP are all supporting & some Tory rebels are ready to talk. These guys slept with Cameron for 5 years & implemented massive austerity & tax cuts & cuts to services including for disabled people.

Corbyn played a master stroke & the LibDems are getting brutally exposed.

[DaWN]

I think everyone is making a fatal flaw in their assumptions here. People who left Labour to the Lib Dems aren't going to like Corbyn... so why would they side with him here? I think it more likely most blame him to be frank , as this isn't really a situation where there's an obvious wrongdoer - as someone mentioned further up, both sides had red lines it would have been impossible to budge from and thus to supporters of that side, they seem reasonable. In any case, I do hope you can see the poor logic in "I stopped voting Labour because I don't like Corbyn but I'm furious that the party I went to wouldn't make him PM so I'm going back." That's not how things work.

And to all the indignant lefties, please try and get a sense of perspective. Just because YOU don't like what's happened doesn't mean people who vote a different way agree. And 'the Lib Dems are going to lose seats because they wouldn't make someone no non-Labour voters like PM" is such a stupid take it hurts my brain.

Oh, and for the love of God, PLEASE stop saying this is a genius masterstroke from Corbyn. It was the most open of open goals, and it says a lot about him that his not blasting the ball above the crossbar into a geostationary orbit is considered a genius move.

[CumbrianLefty]

"you are clearly a diehard Labour and Corbyn supporter"

I have always been Labour yes, but did not vote for JC in either leadership election.

That doesn't mean I have to buy into the ultra-negative view of him people like you have. Even more so since the man himself doesn't matter as much as what he represents.

You are clearly a partisan who doesn't care what the Lib Dems do, you'll go on hating them.

I have always known their, ahem, "foibles" - it is the stuff of legend that Labour and Tory activists get on better with each other than they do with LibDems, who are widely seen as totally unscrupulous opportunists - but the fact remains that several left-leaning voters were much better disposed towards them prior to 2010. Brexit was making some of them at least willing to cautiously forgive and forget, but the risk of the past week is that they are remind of why they developed such an animus.

IMO that is a reasonably fair and objective summary of things.

[Dereich]

Letwin and the CHUK remnant will not support a Corbyn caretaker government.

[Silent Hunter]

No surprise there then.

[CumbrianLefty]

Will at least consider backing Corbyn - SNP, Plaid, Greens, a handful of "rebel" Tories.

Will (at present) not consider - LibDems, whatever ChUK is now called, a few other "rebel" Tories.

From this, some seem to be concluding Corbyn has the problem.

Isn't it, at least arguably, as much those who are still holding out?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I think everyone is making a fatal flaw in their assumptions here. People who left Labour to the Lib Dems aren't going to like Corbyn... so why would they side with him here?

Because they prioritise stopping no deal. Not exactly difficult to wrap your head round is it

[CumbrianLefty]

I think everyone is making a fatal flaw in their assumptions here. People who left Labour to the Lib Dems aren't going to like Corbyn... so why would they side with him here?

Because they prioritise stopping no deal. Not exactly difficult to wrap your head round is it

As the latest YouGov findings confirm.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1162638077535444992?s=19

^The poll that shows this is all about stopping No Deal.

[Silent Hunter]

The Lib Dems have 14 MPs. With the other Independents, it's over 25...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Unfortunately every single political party has gamed this actually quite serious process for petty political advantage and, well, look where we are now. You'd think that the outcome of the 2017 election would have resulted in serious negotiations and some sort of compromise between the government and Labour but this did not happen - was not even contemplated by either. Why? Because the Conservatives viewed (and view) this entire mess as an internal Party problem and any sort of arrangement with the hated socialists would shatter any hope of Party Unity, while Labour viewed (and view) this issue as an irrelevant bourgeois concern that mattered (and matters) only as a means of bringing down the government and triggering fresh elections in favourable circumstances. The LibDems have seen this issue as their meal-ticket back to respectability and electoral relevance, the SNP as a way of getting another referendum on their issue, and so on. A pretty impressive systemic political failure all round, wonderful. A big part of the issue being the adversarial model of politics, which, apparently, under such circumstances fries brains. Of course one cannot pretend this is purely the fault of British politicians even if it mostly is: imagine designing an exit process as dangerously stupid as this one.

[Good Habit]

Well, basically there are only TWO possible options: Hard (most likely "no deal") Brexit with PM Johnson - or - (possibly) a delay with PM Corbyn.. - as Corbyn is not really a remainer, and Labour is quite split on the Brexit issue, he - and Labour - doesnt have an incentive to pay a high price for a second referendum - so Labour won't support an alternative government without the official Leader of the Opposition becoming PM.

So - the options are:
1. no agrement about a vote of no confidence, October 31th passes with no deal Brexit. In the week that follows, Johnson calls for a snap election for december 5th, purges the Tory from his internal opponents, realigns with Farage (I have delivered) and wins with >40% a clear majority against a split opposition-
2. There is a vote of no conficence (succesful) - but no agreement about a interim PM. (For Labour it has to be Corbyn..) So Johnson remains as acting PM und calls a Snap Election for November 14th... - October 31th passes without an extension.. (just may be - the EU offers one against the wish of the British Goverment - "as there is an Election ongoin, we grant the future Government the right to unilaterally ratify the (old) Brexit agrement or to recall article 50, until end of march 2020..) But most likely, Johnson unites with Farage, wins the Election with a strong majority, and most goes as under 1#.
3. There is a succesful vote of no confidence, parliament shows that the Leader of the Opposition (Corbyn) would have a majorty, so he moves to number 10. He asks for an extension of at least 6 to 12 months, "as the UK parliament has just started to do serious business..." - and gets it... An elections is called - say - for January 23th, 2020.
now - Johnson - who can claim to have been "backstabbed" - remains Tory Leader and manages to de-select the internal opposition, but re-conciles with Farage..
So the options are: the Lib-Dems sacrifice themselves - "vote Corbyn - because thats the only way to stop Johnson" - or they don't. If they don't, Johnson likely wins a Landslide, gets back in power and stays for 5 years... If they do, there is a change that Labour wins a majority, Corbyn remains in number 10 for quite some time. He will likely propose a softer Brexit as alternative to remain, but will not put the party to the whip on that question. So the second referendum most likely goes to the Corbynite soft-Brexit - with Brexiters having no alternative - unless, of course, the Torys will campaign for "remain", in the hope that the EU will put brakes on on the economic plans of a Corbyn government...

Theoretically, a new BEP (British European Pary) could become the official opposition - result of massive defection from both Labour and the Torys. This seems, however, rather unlikely... This ship has most likely sailed a long time ago - the obvious time would have been just after the last general election, when Theresa May failed to win a clear majority.. (If she had, Brexit could be treated as a purely internal question of the Torys..) - but farsightedness is usually not among the qualities very common in politics...

[Silent Hunter]

I'm concerned that a Corbyn government will go very much like the novel A Very British Coup with a more incompetent PM and we're get more Tory rule.

But No Deal isn't the end of the matter... it's the start of the next phase.

[Pandaguineapig]

If one were thinking cynically it becomes not too ridiculous to think that the LibDems might actually be willing to live with a no-deal than prop up a "caretaker" government because; 1. The last coalition that the party agreed to (one in which they had a lot more power than they would ever have in this agreement) ended in an absolute disaster for the party, almost wiping the party off the map, they would also likely be propping up a deeply toxic figure with serious baggage with the antisemitism scandals and who is a closet brexiter himself, and 2. if they "allow" the UK to crash out with no-deal that leaves them in a stronger position for the snap election than they would be if they propped up Labour

[Lumine]

The pressure put on the Lib Dems notwithstanding - which is understandable, but still unfair - the whole scenario is still fantasy since the numbers aren't there.

Even if Swinson is pressured into voting for Corbyn despite the fact he's hilariously unfit to be PM, not being able to count on Grieve and "Change UK" means Corbyn would, at best (that is, counting Bebb and Philip Lee), be 9-10 votes short of winning a vote of confidence.  And that's without counting Umunna, Woodock, Austin and several others who have every reason to vote against Corbyn, meaning he'd have to rely on further Conservatives votes to prop him up, which are almost certainly not coming because A. They're certain Corbyn has no place being anywhere near Number 10 or B. Because their careers - the ones who plan to stand again as MP's - would be over the moment they voted for Corbyn.

I get why Corbyn is doing this and kudos to him for finally taking a strategically smart (if rather disingenuous) step, but with the current numbers it's not possible for him to secure the confidence of the House. As others have pointed out, If Johnson loses the VONC no alternative government will be formed because A. Corbyn can't command a majority within 14 days and B. the Labour leadership will block any fantasy unity government. Thus we get an election, which is what Corbyn has wanted all along regardless of the consequences.

Long story short, Swinson eventually relenting and voting for Corbyn is still irrelevant as he can't command a majority without a large group of Tories somehow committing personal political suicide to put a man they despise - and with whom they disagree with on pretty much every issue - as PM.

[CumbrianLefty]

There is right now an effective Tory majority of 1 in the Commons - that's why there is talk of a VONC passing in the first place.

So if Corbyn (or indeed some hypothetical "unity" figure) could get all non-Tory MPs behind them, they would at least have a chance.

It is that which is the problem, rather than lots of Tory "rebels" failing to materialise.

[MaxQue]

So if Corbyn (or indeed some hypothetical "unity" figure) could get all non-Tory MPs behind them, they would at least have a chance.

Again, the issue isn't Corbyn. It is in the interest of Change UK and their spin-offs to have an election as late as possible, so their MPs don't get unemployed.

[JerryArkansas]

So if Corbyn (or indeed some hypothetical "unity" figure) could get all non-Tory MPs behind them, they would at least have a chance.

Again, the issue isn't Corbyn. It is in the interest of Change UK and their spin-offs to have an election as late as possible, so their MPs don't get unemployed.

No, the entire issue is Corbyn.  He is toxic and I don't know why leftists here want to defend him.

[DaWN]

So if Corbyn (or indeed some hypothetical "unity" figure) could get all non-Tory MPs behind them, they would at least have a chance.

Again, the issue isn't Corbyn. It is in the interest of Change UK and their spin-offs to have an election as late as possible, so their MPs don't get unemployed.

No, the entire issue is Corbyn.  He is toxic and I don't know why leftists here want to defend him.

Because they like him and represent their interests? I despise the man but its not hugely difficult to see why a socialist might like him. Not difficult to see why a socialist might dislike him as well of course, but that's beyond the point.