Gerald Ford/Christopher "Kit" Bond (R) 55%
Jimmy Carter/Walter Mondale (D) 43%
Flip AL, KY & MS to Carter and WI and maybe MD & NY to Ford and the map is perfect
I was an active member of the Suffolk County (NY) Democratic Committee in 1980, and I was involved in several campaigns for local Democrats. My memory of that year is very vivid.
In talking with voters, there was an enthusiasm for Reagan that would not have been there with Ford. Against Reagan, Ford had virtually no Republican support. Against Ford, that may not have been so. Ford did not generate that kind of enthusiasm. What's more, NY's polls put Carter in the lead in NY state to the end; it was a surge of late Reagan enthusiasm that pushed Reagan over the top in NY.
Mississippi barely went for Carter in 1976; it was the weakest Southern state that he won, and it was a squeaker, not decided until late in the evening. Indeed, Mississippi may well have been the tipping point state for Carter in 1976. Carter DID have the active support of Gov. William Winter, who actively campaigned for the national ticket in Mississippi (a site not seen by Mississippians in a long time). George Wallace DID endorse Carter in 1980, and Alabama may well have carried for Carter in 1980, but I also note that Alabama elected a Republican Senator in 1980 and would elect a Republican Governor in the Democratic year of 1986.
Wisconsin carried for Carter in 1976 and went for Reagan only because former Wisconsin Gov. Patrick Lucey was John Anderson's running mate. There would have been no Anderson challenge if Ford had been nominated; none at all. Wisconsin was one of the Dukakis states, and I honestly think that many here overstate the Republican nature of Wisconsin. (I believe that Wisconsin is a lean D for 2020, and I believe that Trump's victory there was somewhat flukish.)
Which is not to say that it couldn't have gone your way; it well may have. Kennedy would have challenged Carter (and lost) no matter who was running on the GOP side. The Kennedy challenge hurt Carter incredibly. I voted for Kennedy in the primary in 1980; that's one of the votes I regret. I believe Carter would have had a highly successful second term in retrospect, and I believe that the Democratic Party as a whole made a HUGE mistake in not going all out to squash the Kennedy challenge before it started. Whatever the criticisms of Carter, there was NO reason whatsoever to support a massive primary challenge to his renomination, especially given the fact that if Kennedy had been nominated, he would have ended up having to run on Carter's record anyway.
