1980 if the GOP nominated Gerald Ford for a non-consecutive second term (user search)
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  1980 if the GOP nominated Gerald Ford for a non-consecutive second term (search mode)
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Author Topic: 1980 if the GOP nominated Gerald Ford for a non-consecutive second term  (Read 2008 times)
One Term Floridian
swamiG
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,042


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

« on: July 27, 2019, 12:50:39 AM »



Gerald Ford/Christopher "Kit" Bond (R) 55%
Jimmy Carter/Walter Mondale (D) 43%

Flip AL, KY & MS to Carter and WI and maybe MD & NY to Ford and the map is perfect
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,042


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2019, 01:32:22 PM »



Gerald Ford/Christopher "Kit" Bond (R) 55%
Jimmy Carter/Walter Mondale (D) 43%

Flip AL, KY & MS to Carter and WI and maybe MD & NY to Ford and the map is perfect

I was an active member of the Suffolk County (NY) Democratic Committee in 1980, and I was involved in several campaigns for local Democrats.  My memory of that year is very vivid. 

In talking with voters, there was an enthusiasm for Reagan that would not have been there with Ford.  Against Reagan, Ford had virtually no Republican support.  Against Ford, that may not have been so.  Ford did not generate that kind of enthusiasm.  What's more, NY's polls put Carter in the lead in NY state to the end; it was a surge of late Reagan enthusiasm that pushed Reagan over the top in NY. 

Mississippi barely went for Carter in 1976; it was the weakest Southern state that he won, and it was a squeaker, not decided until late in the evening.  Indeed, Mississippi may well have been the tipping point state for Carter in 1976.  Carter DID have the active support of Gov. William Winter, who actively campaigned for the national ticket in Mississippi (a site not seen by Mississippians in a long time).  George Wallace DID endorse Carter in 1980, and Alabama may well have carried for Carter in 1980, but I also note that Alabama elected a Republican Senator in 1980 and would elect a Republican Governor in the Democratic year of 1986.

Wisconsin carried for Carter in 1976 and went for Reagan only because former Wisconsin Gov. Patrick Lucey was John Anderson's running mate.  There would have been no Anderson challenge if Ford had been nominated; none at all.  Wisconsin was one of the Dukakis states, and I honestly think that many here overstate the Republican nature of Wisconsin.  (I believe that Wisconsin is a lean D for 2020, and I believe that Trump's victory there was somewhat flukish.) 

Which is not to say that it couldn't have gone your way; it well may have.  Kennedy would have challenged Carter (and lost) no matter who was running on the GOP side.  The Kennedy challenge hurt Carter incredibly.  I voted for Kennedy in the primary in 1980; that's one of the votes I regret.  I believe Carter would have had a highly successful second term in retrospect, and I believe that the Democratic Party as a whole made a HUGE mistake in not going all out to squash the Kennedy challenge before it started.  Whatever the criticisms of Carter, there was NO reason whatsoever to support a massive primary challenge to his renomination, especially given the fact that if Kennedy had been nominated, he would have ended up having to run on Carter's record anyway.

I’ll defer to you as to your personal experience as a foot soldier on the campaign in NY,, although I’d reckon that Ford would probably appeal to upstate voters more than Reagan, who was seen as the second coming of Goldwater during a large part of the campaign. WI would likely flip to Ford since it was so narrow in 1976, he was a Midwesterner from neighboring MI (and wouldn’t neglect the state this time around), it was still a fairly GOP state at the presidential level and Carter’s poor approvals.

Meanwhile, Reagan was the absolute best fit for the south as a Republican. As you mentioned, the southern Democratic establishment enthusiastically supported Carter in 1980 and I reckon they’d move mountains for him with the more moderate Ford running again. I could see Carter even improving in MS than last time around since he was seen as a “trustworthy” national Democrat for their conservative values.

All in all, we can agree that Carter was hopeless in 1980 and yes, that the Kennedy primary bid served to kill his campaign before it even got off the ground. Without a contentious primary, I could see a narrow window for Carter pulling out another narrow win by defining and attacking the GOP nominee early on. And who knows? Without the distraction of a potential primary defeat, Carter may have executed Operation Eagle Claw better. That’s just a wild guess though
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,042


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2019, 03:05:17 PM »


This looks good. I suppose the Kennedys/Shrivers would covertly campaign for Ford in MA
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