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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era (search mode)
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Author Topic: GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era  (Read 4884 times)
Skill and Chance
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,144
« on: August 03, 2019, 03:00:29 am »

The GOP party will attempt to galvanize the Latino vote and it will be a Tom Cotton, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz primary in 2024. Winning NH and NV, is the only way conservatives can get back the presidency. They won't duplicate Trump path of stealing WI/PA or MI away from the Dems again.

Cruz will win the nomination, unless Rubio runs and attempt to make inroads in NH and NV.

The same will apply to 2028, if another GOP senator or governor run.


For a long time I thought that if Trump lost in 2020, Cruz would be the nominee in 2024 and he would get decimated.

Nevada is a very precarious path to 270 based on its history in recent times and demographics are far more favorable to the GOP in Wisconsin, Michigan and PA then they are in Nevada.

By 2024, I expect GA to have gone Democratic and there is nothing the Hispanic vote will do to stop that. Meaning that the GOP needs Michigan to compensate.

2016 proved that it is far easier to the Republicans embrace economic nationalism for rust belt votes than it is to reverse the clock back to 2004. And politics like water, follows the path of least resistance.

This.  There's a ton of handwringing here about how much trouble the GOP is in if e.g. more of the South flips in the next 2-3 elections, but between the 2 extremes, Dems getting narrowly shut out of everything but the House for ~20 years like the late 19th century is the far more plausible scenario.  The idea of generational Dem dominance based on changing demographics had definitively failed by 2014, and it's naive to keep resurrecting it.  It might work in a specific state or 2 (GA?), but even then most of the recent Dem gains in the South are more about consolidating the college + vote than anything else.
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Skill and Chance
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,144
« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2019, 03:34:31 pm »

Something will happen somewhere along the line that will hurt the dems and give gop an opening.

This board MUST ditch the insane idea that the dems will have a "lock" on the presidency. There has never been a party with a lock on the presidency. Ever.

I don't care what year it is or what the demographic makeup of the electorate is: if a dem is in power and a recession hits around election time, the dem will lose.

Do you guys not grasp that the single fastest growing preference is "unaffiliated"? People are fed up with both parties. Dems aren't exactly all sunshine and ice cream right now.

Also, their current coalition of fiscally conservative suburban whites and hardcore urban progressives will fall apart once trump leaves and is no longer common enemy.

Historically, isn't generational dominance more likely than close elections with lots of flips?  1932-48 (5/0 D), 1896-1908 (4/0 R), 1860-1880 (6/0 R in election results, still 4/0 R without the complicated situation in 1864) and 1800-20 (6/0 DR) did happen.  Perhaps we are underrating the Republicans stay in the WH until 2032/Democrats in the WH from 2020-2036 scenarios?
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Skill and Chance
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,144
« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2019, 02:22:24 pm »

Honestly I could see the answer being NY, with Republicans getting West Texas style margins from the Upstate in the 2030's. 
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Skill and Chance
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,144
« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2019, 03:19:10 pm »

Honestly I could see the answer being NY, with Republicans getting West Texas style margins from the Upstate in the 2030's. 

See, I just see this as too mathematically oriented.  People don’t slide along axes.  Upstate NY isn’t as homogeneous as West Texas in any sense.

There is a developing divide by industry in addition to the class/education and urban/rural divides that get much more attention.  If Trump gets reelected, it will in part be because there is a strong sense that protectionism is helping save jobs in a lot of industrial areas.  Over the course of 10-20 years of that, mid size industrial cities (of which there are plenty in Upstate NY, like Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester, etc.) could easily develop an attachment to Republicans that rivals the late 20th century oil patch.  I could even see Republicans eventually doing better in NY than in NJ/CT (not to mention MA) for this reason. 

Also, in part because it is so large, NYC is one of the least politically homogenous large cities.  There's a better path back to 30% for Republicans there than in any of the other giant cities save Houston where they already have >30%. 
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