GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era (user search)
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  GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era (search mode)
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Author Topic: GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era  (Read 11669 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: July 25, 2019, 10:48:01 PM »

Figuring that Donald Trump will be an electoral disaster in 2020 and that the Democrat will win a second term for all practical purposes...

Yes, the Democrat will win a second term because the conditions that applied to Clinton, Dubya, and Obama will still be there: even a mediocre President gets a second term. Should the incumbent President be in no condition to run for re-election, I expect that that President will have invested some political capital in the Vice-President who will (pardon the use of a Reagan-era expression) stay the course.  So far I see Trump as unspeakably awful and I expect him to take down his political enablers with him.

The best that the Republicans can hope for is that Americans will tire of the Democrat in due time. The last time that such happened involved the elder Bush as a successor to the highly-successful Ronald Reagan. Bush could not offer a coherent vision for a Second Act, and he lost to someone who could. Clinton promised to maintain the Reagan-Bush foreign policy that people liked. Clinton won.

Two of the leaders in the Democratic contention for nomination (Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden) are unusually old candidates. In view of actuarial concerns about life expectancy and mental debility, either could be one-term Presidents for reasons of health. In such a case the Democrats may have invested in a competent nominee for VP who runs for election for an open Presidency in 2024 and, as is usual for even a mediocre President, gets re-elected. Now what about 2028 or 2032?

Donald Trump is completely discredited, and Republicans have moved away from him. Maybe in some recession some Republican governor has the reputation of miraculously avoiding the worst. Or a Democratic President has had a highly-successful war (not of his choosing, but the blunder of provoking the USA was a really bad idea -- see Saddam Hussein, who expected to get away with annexing Kuwait) and the Republicans nominate an Eisenhower-like general to be President.

We can rule out as a possibility that we will have a business tycoon with no political experience. Donald Trump will be the last such person for perhaps a century. We will more likely have a sports hero (probably a bad idea, too).

This assumes that the Republican Party will not fade as did the Federalists and Whigs. In such a case the Democratic Party becomes and unwieldy big-tent Party and splits into regional and social factions -- maybe a Social Democratic Party and a Christian Democratic Party. Such would be a modern version of the formation of the Whigs and the Republican Party.   

 
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pbrower2a
Atlas Star
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Posts: 26,841
United States


« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2021, 09:03:20 PM »

Republicans will need a new coalition. What they have is aging without obvious replenishment as it is more Christian fundamentalist and more trusting of Big Business to do right even if what Big Business does doesn't feel right.

Fossil fuels is a huge part of the GOP coalition, and proponents of non-fossil fuels at the expense of coal and petroleum tend to the D side. When the oil fields of western Texas finally go dry, then western Texas will be rich in energy production. Solar energy! Heck, even Dallas often feels more like Phoenix than any other large city outside Texas, due to the brutally hot, dry summers. (OK, maybe Tucson, Las Vegas, Bakersfield, or Fresno).   
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