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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era (search mode)
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Author Topic: GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era  (Read 4924 times)
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« on: July 27, 2019, 05:31:18 pm »

The GOP party will attempt to galvanize the Latino vote and it will be a Tom Cotton, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz primary in 2024. Winning NH and NV, is the only way conservatives can get back the presidency. They won't duplicate Trump path of stealing WI/PA or MI away from the Dems again.

Cruz will win the nomination, unless Rubio runs and attempt to make inroads in NH and NV.

The same will apply to 2028, if another GOP senator or governor run.


For a long time I thought that if Trump lost in 2020, Cruz would be the nominee in 2024 and he would get decimated.

Nevada is a very precarious path to 270 based on its history in recent times and demographics are far more favorable to the GOP in Wisconsin, Michigan and PA then they are in Nevada.

By 2024, I expect GA to have gone Democratic and there is nothing the Hispanic vote will do to stop that. Meaning that the GOP needs Michigan to compensate.

2016 proved that it is far easier to the Republicans embrace economic nationalism for rust belt votes than it is to reverse the clock back to 2004. And politics like water, follows the path of least resistance.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2019, 11:59:25 pm »

The GOP party will attempt to galvanize the Latino vote and it will be a Tom Cotton, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz primary in 2024. Winning NH and NV, is the only way conservatives can get back the presidency. They won't duplicate Trump path of stealing WI/PA or MI away from the Dems again.

Cruz will win the nomination, unless Rubio runs and attempt to make inroads in NH and NV.

The same will apply to 2028, if another GOP senator or governor run.


For a long time I thought that if Trump lost in 2020, Cruz would be the nominee in 2024 and he would get decimated.

Nevada is a very precarious path to 270 based on its history in recent times and demographics are far more favorable to the GOP in Wisconsin, Michigan and PA then they are in Nevada.

By 2024, I expect GA to have gone Democratic and there is nothing the Hispanic vote will do to stop that. Meaning that the GOP needs Michigan to compensate.

2016 proved that it is far easier to the Republicans embrace economic nationalism for rust belt votes than it is to reverse the clock back to 2004. And politics like water, follows the path of least resistance.
why be weak and accept blue GA?  Keep it red, no matter what.  A more favorable judiciary could help corrective measures be ruled constitutional.

One doesn't use "corrective measures" when a state starts going against you.

The simple fact of the matter is that the Democrats have a solid or rising floor and the Republican ceiling is dropping every cycle. This doesn't just apply to Georgia, but most every sunbelt state.

As white voters become more educated and more secular, the the GOP percentage among the white vote will continue to drop from the inflated levels that it has been at since the 1990s (basically when Boomers became dominate voting block). This is especially so since the inflated levels skew heavily from Boomer whites while younger whites are far less race conscious, far less religious and thus far more Democratic.

As the Republicans can no longer command such inflated 65%, 75% and in Mississippi a whopping 85% of the white vote, the rising Democrat tide will swamp them making the sunbelt look a great deal like oceanic earth over 4 billion years ago with very little red clay to speak of.

Take this 2012 trend map:
 

Or the exit polling data compiled from 2014 that displays the differential between younger and older voters in most sunbelt states and the results are dramatic with Democrats performing in some cases 20 and 30 points better with younger voters.

Or take the 2016 trend map:


The major difference between the two is that one is driven more by minority voting and the other by education attainment. When you combine the two trends over time, and factor in the exit poll data mentioned above and then what we saw in 2018 in states like GA and TX, then you have four different elections that all point in the same direction.

The Republican South is the equivalent of a red barn in a designated flood zone for a TVA man made lake.

If you were to become immortal and travel to another galaxy and come back after 400 million years, you would not recognize the geography of the planet.

The political map is the same way. This was the first Republican Presidential victory after Trump's birth:


Just 30 years ago, the Republicans were just narrowly losing New York and California was their most reliable big state and Illinois was second most reliable.

The reason why so many people on this forum cannot fathom that now, is the same reason they could not fathom Pangea or Rodinia. We are used to seeing the South go Republican and thus the fact that  Virginia, GA, TX, NC and eventually maybe even MS might be solid Democratic again is scary.

The Republican Party survived 100 years without winning any of those states (except for some of them in 1928), it will adapt and evolve to meet the new reality just as life will evolve to meet the new realities this planet throws at it at least until the Sun bakes it into another Venus.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2019, 04:43:48 am »
« Edited: August 14, 2019, 05:03:36 am by Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee »

One other thing that's almost certain to happen is MS will flip by the 2040s, maybe earlier.  This has mainly to do with demographic change, which I won't go into right now since NC Yankee has already posted a lot of good stuff on this in another thread (which I'm too lazy to find at the moment).  I haven't done the math yet, but it's possible some other Deep South states will see the same dynamic, such as LA.

Mississippi was one of several states featured in a post by Adam Griffin in late 2016 which tracked the margin difference between the youngest voting demographic and the oldest demographic based off 2014 exit poll data.

You have to couple that with a realization that the Deep South's Republican lean is built off massive margins with Whites to offset the minority population's voting 95% Democratic. Unfortunately, the media stopped doing exit polling for every state and so the latest data we have to go on is 2012, but in that election in Mississippi the following results happened:

Whites 59%   Romney 89% Obama 11%
Blacks 36%    Obama 97%  Romney 2%

Whites in Mississippi vote more Republican than any other state in the country, more so than Alabama. Now in 2016, the black vote was down so that gave the illusion of everything being fine and Trump returned things to normal. The problem with this is that these Democratic voters didn't just vanish, they didn't turn out. Trump's voters on the other hand...

The key thing you realize is that Republican Support in the South is based not just on white support, but white boomer support. The thing that stands out from the Griffin post is the massive differential between older and younger voters. A good bit of this is diversification, but it is also generational change among white voters.

Most of the states that Democrats are going to gain in the sunbelt are those with higher educational attainment/greater secularization among whites, thus curbing white GOP margins and allowing strong Democratic support from growing minority communities to flip these states. Among these would be GA, TX and AZ, and also possibly Florida, SC and NC.  

The other states with less diversity and lower educational obtainment, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas and Louisiana should hold up for the GOP for a good while unless some massive shift occurs.

Mississippi is the oddball because in terms of educational attainment it is clearly in the latter category, but the Democrats have a much higher floor there (assuming it turns out) than most other states with similar benchmarks. The state often gives the illusion of being more Republican than it actually is, but there is a vote out there that is about 43%-45% Democratic if you can motivate to turn out, which Obama did and Clinton did not. Republicans meanwhile peaked in 2008 and have lost votes in every election since. Mississippi, in spite of being so much better for Trump than Romney was a state where Trump actually got less votes than Romney did. I think it is fairly hard to argue that anyone is going to be better at turning out Mississippi White's than Trump. These voters aren't people not turning out, they are dying off.

Republicans are top heavy with Boomer whites (and Silents in MS's case) in every sunbelt state and while it is likely to presume that Mississippi whites will remain heavily Republican and probably even the most Republican in the nation, there is every reason to think that the number will ease downward slowly over the next few cycles, 85%, 82% etc.

In 2012, Romney won voters age 65 and up by a 78%-22% margin (similar to overall margin Goldwater got when basically only Whites could vote just throwing that out there). He won 45-64 55%-44% and 30-44 55%-44%. But Obama won the youngest voters: 55%-43%. Those same voters that were 65 and up in 2012 are now 72 and up in a state with some of the worst health scores and highest smoking rates. By 2040, they will be 93 and up, while the youngest voting demographic will have become the state's largest. Without the senior vote, Romney's margin drops to just ~3%

At Obama turnout levels a funny thing happens when the GOP gets below 80% with Whites:
59*79 + 36*3 = 47.69% + 5*.25 = 48.94%
59*21 + 36*97 = 47.32% + 5*.75 = 51.07%

It flips!!!

That still makes them the most Republican group of White Votes in the country. Interesting thing in the above scenario is that it is the Hispanic vote that gives the Democrats that final push over the GOP and over 50%.

So yea, post Trump, Mississippi will probably trend Democrat in every subsequent cycle until it flips probably by 2032.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2019, 02:19:16 am »
« Edited: August 16, 2019, 02:23:48 am by Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee »

If the Republicans continue on its Northern trajectory, it will be via hinging around non-college whites, so the areas with the highest concentrations of non-college whites will flip first or harden if they already have. These would become the new "Base states" and then you have to look and find what demographics are easiest to flip to get you a majority either in a particular state or in the nation as whole.

Practically speaking we are already there since Trump won 66% with non-college whites, while losing college educated whites. Trump cobbled together a majority (of the EC) by minimizing the bleeding with the 2000s GOP base, sunbelt-evangelical suburbs, but if those voters are no longer viable paths (ie, they are dead or being outvoted by minority-millennial coalitions), you have to find alternative routes.

The number one rule is that whoever they go for, it will be the group that requires the party to change the least and that also will factor in who is the next Democratic President and what their focus is.

The easiest group to augment non-college whites would be Midwest suburban voters, particularly those suburbs that are lacking in diversity. This secures that region (save Illinois). These suburbs lack the pressures (see my post above about top heaviness with Boomer whites to offset minority margins) that are long term threatening the GOP in Texas and Georgia and would be more likely to bounce back afterwards. The GOP didn't lose any suburban House seats in Wisconsin or Ohio in 2018 (and yes gerrys were a factor of course), but even looking at the county results for Governor: DeWine did better than Trump in Delaware County, Walker did better in Wow, and Rauner did better in the collar counties. By contrast Kemp did worse than Trump in Cobb and Gwinnett. McSally did worse in Maricopa and Cruz did worse in Tarrant.

Granted these were Governor and Senate races, but we are seeing a level of GOP resilience in that area even with Trump as President that could translate into better performances post Trump, which leaves the GOP as a more Rust belt/Midwest centric party over the course of the next decade. This would invariably translate into candidates who by necessity of survival have to successfully combine Trump level support with non-college whites, and decent college white support in the suburbs. This would invariably translate into better performances over time in Illinois (~40s) and after a couple of cycles being shut out trying to go the GA/TX route (call it the sunbelt blue wall in a future scenario), throwing some money into Illinois begins to look appealing. Throw in some third party vote splitting and a narrow 48%-46% win in the 2030's isn't unreasonable.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2019, 03:28:14 am »

That's when you start investing in CT, NJ, DE, ILL and OR to try and shake something lose.


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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2019, 02:10:51 am »
« Edited: August 19, 2019, 02:15:02 am by Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee »

The easiest group to augment non-college whites would be Midwest suburban voters, particularly those suburbs that are lacking in diversity. This secures that region (save Illinois). These suburbs lack the pressures (see my post above about top heaviness with Boomer whites to offset minority margins) that are long term threatening the GOP in Texas and Georgia and would be more likely to bounce back afterwards. The GOP didn't lose any suburban House seats in Wisconsin or Ohio in 2018 (and yes gerrys were a factor of course), but even looking at the county results for Governor: DeWine did better than Trump in Delaware County, Walker did better in Wow, and Rauner did better in the collar counties. By contrast Kemp did worse than Trump in Cobb and Gwinnett. McSally did worse in Maricopa and Cruz did worse in Tarrant.

Granted these were Governor and Senate races, but we are seeing a level of GOP resilience in that area even with Trump as President that could translate into better performances post Trump, which leaves the GOP as a more Rust belt/Midwest centric party over the course of the next decade. This would invariably translate into candidates who by necessity of survival have to successfully combine Trump level support with non-college whites, and decent college white support in the suburbs. This would invariably translate into better performances over time in Illinois (~40s) and after a couple of cycles being shut out trying to go the GA/TX route (call it the sunbelt blue wall in a future scenario), throwing some money into Illinois begins to look appealing. Throw in some third party vote splitting and a narrow 48%-46% win in the 2030's isn't unreasonable.

On paragraph one I have argued many times that with the exception of Lake County that the Illnois suburban collar ring will be tilting slightly Republican on local races. There is much more of a Chicago vs rest of state dynamic there. Contrast that to Cobb and Gwinnett Counties in Georgia which will almost certainly be likely to solid Democratic up and down the ballot and with less sitgma towards Atlanta than Chicago.

But on the other hand, issue by issue, the Chicago collar counties are more liberal and are far more embracing of public transportation and less socially conservative. That should be enough to keep them solid Democratic in federal races barring a GOP landslide.

On paragraph 2, people need to stop pretending Illinois will be the GOP savior in answer to demographics flipping Texas to the Democrats. Right now Texas is simply voting more demographically in line to what it was before! And have you seen the types of people moving to Texas? They are largely conservative! The Democratic lock out in Texas will be over if it not already over but you could argue that maybe, just maybe, Texas was inflatedly Republican.

Also I would not bet on a state that will have 15 to 16 electoral votes to be the savior of the GOP. Long term it will probably bump up to 20 again when climate change takes toll of course. But the GOP is better off investing in Texas than Illinois.

Another point on Illinois, the metro east is one of the very few ancestral Democratic areas that could revert back a little. They are not particularly conservative counites (Madison, St Clair, etc).


Of course we really can not predict more than a decade into the future.


Not predict, project reasonable scenarios based on a set of factors that would dictate such scenario occurring. That is what this entire thread is about.

I don't disagree with your points about the GOP and Illinois, right now. But politics is evolutionary and parties exist to get to power. Over the longer term, if they cannot get to power they will adapt to reclaim it.

Over the medium to long term the GOP faces a steeper climb in the sunbelt because of the reasons I explored in my post about Mississippi. They are too dependent on winning white votes by inflated margins and those margins are coming from a particular age group that isn't getting any younger. That is fundamentally the underlying root of the GOP's problems in GA, TX and many other places. The White vote is recessing towards the national average in those states and the more educated the population, the more it will recess putting the GOP in a very precarious spot going forward.

They are not in such dire straits outside of the sunbelt. Virtually every trend map in the last three cycles has confirmed this dynamic to be occurring.

What happens to the GOP if TX whites fall to 60% Republican? It becomes solidly democratic. 50*60 = 30%  Add another 10% from Hispanics or so (and that is probably too generous by that point). Right now it is 57*69 = 39% plus 30*34 = 10% for a total of ~50%.

Who do you think is going to be easier to flip? Secular white moderates in Illinois suburbs, or Millienial/Gen Z Whites/Latinos in TX for whom the state level GOP will be radioactive? Democratic control of Illinois helps the GOP because the GOP isn't in a position to wreck themselves long term like they are in a position to do in Texas, Arizona and Georgia through trying to engage in "corrective measures". Call it the Pete Wilson effect.

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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2019, 09:38:18 pm »
« Edited: August 20, 2019, 09:42:23 pm by Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee »

The problem with that question is that a millenial born in 1992 in Tarrant County counts as "born in Texas" where as a Baby boomer who moved to Texas in 1992 counts as moved to Texas. You need an age break down of that question.

You also have to remember that for years the people moving to NC were Republican leaning and now that situation has changed. The same happened with New Hampshire.

The whole population of "Moved to Texas" doesn't matter if it includes people that where there voting in 2004. What matters is who is moving to Texas NOW and how they voting.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2019, 09:50:01 pm »

What a dumpster fire of a thread. How are people seriously making the argument that most people moving into Texas are conservatives? That is blatantly false when you look at the growing regions of the state: every county with a booming population has zoomed left over the past decade.

3 years not a decade lol . Texas trended R in 2012 and 2014 and potentially even 2010.

Mittens was a very good fit for a certain kind of high end, college educated white suburban Republican, even in the sunbelt. He won Atlanta burbs in the 2008 primaries against Huckabee and McCain for instance.

2014 has to be placed in context, it was the lowest turnout election since 1942. I love to point this out, but Kasich got 300,000 less votes than DeWine and about the same number of votes he got in 2010 when he basically tied with Strickland. The whole reason Kasich got 63% was 800,000 Dems didn't vote. Sandoval while getting 70% of the vote, got less raw votes than Laxalt who got 45%.

And in Texas Abbot got almost 2 million less votes in 2014, while winning by a bigger margin than he did over Lupe Valdez.

2014 data is very misleading thus, because a lot of the voters that are driving these trends didn't vote.

Even in 2014, there was a massive exit poll age gap of almost 40% between the oldest voting block and the youngest.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2019, 09:56:57 pm »

Consider this for a minute, if Texas ends up voting like CA and NY, then it by extension becomes just as easy to win the latter as it does the former. Basically the end game is that the GOP has to evolve enough to get back to competing on a 1976 style map because there will be too few areas that it can dominate exclusively while letting the other party do the same in some other states.
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