GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era

[R.P. McM]

Good map.  Something like that is my current guess for where the future coalitions will be.. I hesitate to say the path "beyond Trump-era" as the OP did, because of course, that presumes the Trump "era" is something that ends with his administration, as opposed to a indicator of where the parties are going.  So I will just say "the future."

One state I would probably flip is NJ.  I would also consider IL, which could become a swing state again- if we're talking about a 20-30+ year timeframe.  That is going to mainly depend on the Chicago area and whether it continues to lose population.  Obviously it's too early to make predictions as far that goes, but one possible path for Chicago's future is to follow in the footsteps of St Louis, in which case IL is certainly going to become a swing state again, it's just a matter of when.  Or Chicago could end up more like Minneapolis.  We'll see.

Assuming the present political/demographic trends hold, I don't see how that's possible. Cook County may be shrinking, but so is the rest of IL — at a faster rate. The Chicago MSA is actually increasing as a share of the state's total population. And the vote disparity is widening:
  ___
|CHI|       %/Pop. ┊   D-votes  ┊   R-votes   ┊  Margin
2000  .....  61.4% ┊ 1,655,582 ┊ 1,010,051 ┊  D+24
2016  .....  62.1% ┊ 2,210,378 ┊    964,274 ┊  D+39

Not exactly comparable to situation in St. Louis/MO:
  ___
|STL|       %/Pop. ┊  D-votes  ┊  R-votes  ┊  Margin
2000  .....  35.8% ┊  467,267 ┊  394,759 ┊   D+8
2016  .....  34.8% ┊  512,964 ┊  478,652 ┊   D+3

Obviously, the current trajectory isn't immutable. But if we plot a straight line from 2016, at no point does IL become competitive. The GOP would have to substantially narrow the gap in Chicagoland, and at the moment, the exact opposite is happening.

[R.P. McM]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

[R.P. McM]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

Huh? I don't think Clinton actually achieved any sort of realignment. My supposition is that the GOP can no longer carry more than ~46% of the vote in a national election. In which case, the current dynamic is far more akin to Northern Ireland than any situation that prevailed in postwar America. I guess we'll see. When do you suppose the Republican candidate will once again earn 50.1% in a presidential election? It's now been 17 years since that last occurred.

[R.P. McM]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

Huh? I don't think Clinton actually achieved any sort of realignment. My supposition is that the GOP can no longer carry more than ~46% of the vote in a national election. In which case, the current dynamic is far more akin to Northern Ireland than any situation that prevailed in postwar America. I guess we'll see. When do you suppose the Republican candidate will once again earn 50.1% in a presidential election? It's now been 17 years since that last occurred.

Bc 1992-2016 can very much be classified as a more Dem friendly era at the presidential level. Why should I think 46% is the GOPs limit?

Why not? The Republican candidate hasn't earned a majority since 2004, 17 years ago.

[R.P. McM]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

Huh? I don't think Clinton actually achieved any sort of realignment. My supposition is that the GOP can no longer carry more than ~46% of the vote in a national election. In which case, the current dynamic is far more akin to Northern Ireland than any situation that prevailed in postwar America. I guess we'll see. When do you suppose the Republican candidate will once again earn 50.1% in a presidential election? It's now been 17 years since that last occurred.

Bc 1992-2016 can very much be classified as a more Dem friendly era at the presidential level. Why should I think 46% is the GOPs limit?

Why not? The Republican candidate hasn't earned a majority since 2004, 17 years ago.

As I literally just said...

No idea what you just said. Other than an attempt to demarcate 1992-2016 as a Democratic era which just concluded, based on nothing whatsoever. No, your racist, seditionist sexual predator earned 46.8% of the vote, not much different than 2016, 2012, or 2008.

[R.P. McM]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

Huh? I don't think Clinton actually achieved any sort of realignment. My supposition is that the GOP can no longer carry more than ~46% of the vote in a national election. In which case, the current dynamic is far more akin to Northern Ireland than any situation that prevailed in postwar America. I guess we'll see. When do you suppose the Republican candidate will once again earn 50.1% in a presidential election? It's now been 17 years since that last occurred.

Bc 1992-2016 can very much be classified as a more Dem friendly era at the presidential level. Why should I think 46% is the GOPs limit?

Why not? The Republican candidate hasn't earned a majority since 2004, 17 years ago.

As I literally just said...

No idea what you just said. Other than an attempt to demarcate 1992-2016 as a Democratic era which just concluded, based on nothing whatsoever. No, your racist, seditionist sexual predator earned 46.8% of the vote, not much different than 2016, 2012, or 2008.

Hahahha. Trump can’t help it that he can’t appeal to a bunch of emotional, impulsive cucks.

"Cucks"? You'll have to clarify your meaning, otherwise I have to report you for using racist alt-right terminology.

[R.P. McM]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

Huh? I don't think Clinton actually achieved any sort of realignment. My supposition is that the GOP can no longer carry more than ~46% of the vote in a national election. In which case, the current dynamic is far more akin to Northern Ireland than any situation that prevailed in postwar America. I guess we'll see. When do you suppose the Republican candidate will once again earn 50.1% in a presidential election? It's now been 17 years since that last occurred.

Bc 1992-2016 can very much be classified as a more Dem friendly era at the presidential level. Why should I think 46% is the GOPs limit?

Why not? The Republican candidate hasn't earned a majority since 2004, 17 years ago.

As I literally just said...

No idea what you just said. Other than an attempt to demarcate 1992-2016 as a Democratic era which just concluded, based on nothing whatsoever. No, your racist, seditionist sexual predator earned 46.8% of the vote, not much different than 2016, 2012, or 2008.

Hahahha. Trump can’t help it that he can’t appeal to a bunch of emotional, impulsive cucks.

"Cucks"? You'll have to clarify your meaning, otherwise I have to report you for using racist alt-right terminology.

Yes, I love oppressing people.

We're not going to play this stupid game. So I'll do the non-racist Republican members of this forum a favor by starting your eviction process.

[R.P. McM]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

Huh? I don't think Clinton actually achieved any sort of realignment. My supposition is that the GOP can no longer carry more than ~46% of the vote in a national election. In which case, the current dynamic is far more akin to Northern Ireland than any situation that prevailed in postwar America. I guess we'll see. When do you suppose the Republican candidate will once again earn 50.1% in a presidential election? It's now been 17 years since that last occurred.

Bc 1992-2016 can very much be classified as a more Dem friendly era at the presidential level. Why should I think 46% is the GOPs limit?

Why not? The Republican candidate hasn't earned a majority since 2004, 17 years ago.

As I literally just said...

No idea what you just said. Other than an attempt to demarcate 1992-2016 as a Democratic era which just concluded, based on nothing whatsoever. No, your racist, seditionist sexual predator earned 46.8% of the vote, not much different than 2016, 2012, or 2008.

Hahahha. Trump can’t help it that he can’t appeal to a bunch of emotional, impulsive cucks.

"Cucks"? You'll have to clarify your meaning, otherwise I have to report you for using racist alt-right terminology.

LMAO how is 'cuck' racist? I'm a leftist but the left sure does live up to its stereotype of being offended at jokes lol

Well, to comprehend it, you'd have to be somewhat honest and/or somewhat intelligent. Do I believe you're either of those things? Probably not. No, what EastwoodS implied is a typical alt-right slur: that non-fascist whites oppose Trump because they're determined to be cuckholded by nonwhite interlopers. Doubt me? Then come up with some plausible, alternative interpretation.