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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era (search mode)
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Author Topic: GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era  (Read 4962 times)
R.P. McM
Jr. Member
Posts: 431
Ireland, Republic of

« on: August 13, 2019, 03:05:29 am »
« edited: August 22, 2019, 05:53:26 am by R.P. McM »

Good map.  Something like that is my current guess for where the future coalitions will be.. I hesitate to say the path "beyond Trump-era" as the OP did, because of course, that presumes the Trump "era" is something that ends with his administration, as opposed to a indicator of where the parties are going.  So I will just say "the future."

One state I would probably flip is NJ.  I would also consider IL, which could become a swing state again- if we're talking about a 20-30+ year timeframe.  That is going to mainly depend on the Chicago area and whether it continues to lose population.  Obviously it's too early to make predictions as far that goes, but one possible path for Chicago's future is to follow in the footsteps of St Louis, in which case IL is certainly going to become a swing state again, it's just a matter of when.  Or Chicago could end up more like Minneapolis.  We'll see.

Assuming the present political/demographic trends hold, I don't see how that's possible. Cook County may be shrinking, but so is the rest of IL — at a faster rate. The Chicago MSA is actually increasing as a share of the state's total population. And the vote disparity is widening:
|CHI|       %/Pop. ┊   D-votes  ┊   R-votes   ┊  Margin
2000  .....  61.4% ┊ 1,655,582 ┊ 1,010,051 ┊  D+24
2016  .....  62.1% ┊ 2,210,378 ┊    964,274 ┊  D+39

Not exactly comparable to situation in St. Louis/MO:
|STL|       %/Pop. ┊  D-votes  ┊  R-votes  ┊  Margin
2000  .....  35.8% ┊  467,267 ┊  394,759 ┊   D+8
2016  .....  34.8% ┊  512,964 ┊  478,652 ┊   D+3

Obviously, the current trajectory isn't immutable. But if we plot a straight line from 2016, at no point does IL become competitive. The GOP would have to substantially narrow the gap in Chicagoland, and at the moment, the exact opposite is happening.
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