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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era (search mode)
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Author Topic: GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era  (Read 4844 times)
Anarcho-Statism
Jr. Member
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Posts: 554
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Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: 1.22

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« on: August 14, 2019, 10:10:13 pm »
« edited: August 14, 2019, 10:19:21 pm by Anarcho-Statism »

The reason a lot of millennials will have trouble fathoming this, is because many of them grew up in the 90s and started voting (or at least "paying attention" to politics) in the 00s or Bush years.  So they associate the GOP with what were some of the strongest elements in the party at the time, which includes, e.g., Southern Evangelicals.  Given that, some have difficulty seeing how a state like VT would ever vote for the party of Southern Baptists etc., without stopping to wonder what would happen if the GOP was no longer associated with either Baptists or the South, and in fact, if it was now the Democrats who were winning most of the South.  That is a scenario that a lot of current millennials will be cognitively incapable of envisioning, even though it is actually underway- TX, GA, NC- all trending D.  Meanwhile VT (every county but 1), RI, NH, CT, ME- all trending R.  

And of course, people being born now and that will vote in 2040 will have none of the associations that millennials currently have with the GOP.  Something that is difficult to accept but is nonetheless true (and it's forgivable, people have a tendency to believe everything revolves around their own experiences, but in fact, the world does move on).  We see this already happening with the GOP, having nominated its least religious candidate since I can remember, and where the Religious Right had minimal (basically no) impact on the primary or general election, and is becoming increasingly irrelevant in the base.

Remember- maps change.  In 20 years, there will be states voting R that no one today is guessing.  20 years ago, KY, WV, AR, TN- all D states.  Maps that purport to predict the future but don't flip enough states are bad maps.

Call me crazy, I think this reasoning could be applied to the northwest, too. If we have a populist GOP, Oregon would go first. If the GOP shifts back to its late 19th century character- coalition built on the well-to-do neoliberals fleeing more conservative minorities and/or progressives in the Democratic Party- this could actually happen to Washington first.
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Anarcho-Statism
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 554
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: 1.22

P
« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2019, 11:19:16 pm »

Current trends won’t last beyond 2028 at the latest . By the 2030s many of the trends what happen then will be unrecognizable to us today

Wise! Who's to say the Republicans don't reabsorb free trade and surge in the gentrified cities while still losing areas with poor minorities? Or, that coalitions rise based on automation? Or a huge credit crunch-based depression? Or over intervention in the complicated ideological environment of a collapsed post-Putin Russia? Maybe new technology or Democratic legislation totally kills coal, and big tech moves in to totally renovate West Virginia. Maybe Silicon Valley rusts away and California becomes susceptible to populism. Maybe an OPEC embargo causes America to go completely self-reliant on oil, causing North Dakota to become a cosmopolitan boomtown.

To those who laugh at the outlandish: danger of extrapolation.
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