GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era

[Kyng]

Let's suppose demographic changes push TX + AZ + GA into the Democratic column (which, in addition to the Hillary 2016 states, would be a 298-240 EV win for the Democrats on the 2024 map). How does the GOP respond? I can think of a few ways:

1. Become more competitive with minorities

Perhaps the GOP manages to appeal to Asians or white Hispanics or whoever. If they do this, they should at least keep TX (and probably also GA and AZ) out of the 'Safe D' column, so their current path to 270 would still be viable.

2. Become more competitive with moderate whites

This would be necessary if TX (and AZ and GA) move out of reach. The first states to fall with this path would be MN + NH + ME-AL; however, that still yields a 283-255 win for the Democrats. However, I can see them making further gains in places like New England, especially if they moderate on the 'religious right' stuff (or if the Democrats' increasingly minority-centric coalition leads to anti-whiteness in their ranks, which they fail to tackle effectively). If the GOP can win something like ME-01 + RI + DE + OR, then that gets them to 270-268.

3. Ride their own wave of demographic change

As in scenario #2, the GOP is winning MN + NH + ME-AL, getting them to 255 electoral votes. The remaining 15 will come from demographic changes which are in their favour. If liberals and minorities are moving to the Sun Belt in large enough numbers to put TX + AZ + GA out of reach, then they're moving from somewhere, and the places they're moving from will become more conservative as a result. For example, perhaps Chicago's population drops to the point where IL becomes competitive - and then, the GOP gets over 270 by flipping it.


Do note that, in the map where Democrats are winning 283-255 (that is, 2016 + TX + AZ + GA - MN - NH - ME-AL), they're only winning 20 states to the GOP's 30. If the Democrats rely on this coalition, then they're going to have a serious Senate problem - so the GOP will still be able to exert a lot of influence even if they fall short of winning the presidency.