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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era (search mode)
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Author Topic: GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era  (Read 4883 times)
jimmie
jamespol
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,705


« on: August 18, 2019, 02:10:51 pm »

The easiest group to augment non-college whites would be Midwest suburban voters, particularly those suburbs that are lacking in diversity. This secures that region (save Illinois). These suburbs lack the pressures (see my post above about top heaviness with Boomer whites to offset minority margins) that are long term threatening the GOP in Texas and Georgia and would be more likely to bounce back afterwards. The GOP didn't lose any suburban House seats in Wisconsin or Ohio in 2018 (and yes gerrys were a factor of course), but even looking at the county results for Governor: DeWine did better than Trump in Delaware County, Walker did better in Wow, and Rauner did better in the collar counties. By contrast Kemp did worse than Trump in Cobb and Gwinnett. McSally did worse in Maricopa and Cruz did worse in Tarrant.

Granted these were Governor and Senate races, but we are seeing a level of GOP resilience in that area even with Trump as President that could translate into better performances post Trump, which leaves the GOP as a more Rust belt/Midwest centric party over the course of the next decade. This would invariably translate into candidates who by necessity of survival have to successfully combine Trump level support with non-college whites, and decent college white support in the suburbs. This would invariably translate into better performances over time in Illinois (~40s) and after a couple of cycles being shut out trying to go the GA/TX route (call it the sunbelt blue wall in a future scenario), throwing some money into Illinois begins to look appealing. Throw in some third party vote splitting and a narrow 48%-46% win in the 2030's isn't unreasonable.

On paragraph one I have argued many times that with the exception of Lake County that the Illnois suburban collar ring will be tilting slightly Republican on local races. There is much more of a Chicago vs rest of state dynamic there. Contrast that to Cobb and Gwinnett Counties in Georgia which will almost certainly be likely to solid Democratic up and down the ballot and with less sitgma towards Atlanta than Chicago.

But on the other hand, issue by issue, the Chicago collar counties are more liberal and are far more embracing of public transportation and less socially conservative. That should be enough to keep them solid Democratic in federal races barring a GOP landslide.

On paragraph 2, people need to stop pretending Illinois will be the GOP savior in answer to demographics flipping Texas to the Democrats. Right now Texas is simply voting more demographically in line to what it was before! And have you seen the types of people moving to Texas? They are largely conservative! The Democratic lock out in Texas will be over if it not already over but you could argue that maybe, just maybe, Texas was inflatedly Republican.

Also I would not bet on a state that will have 15 to 16 electoral votes to be the savior of the GOP. Long term it will probably bump up to 20 again when climate change takes toll of course. But the GOP is better off investing in Texas than Illinois.

Another point on Illinois, the metro east is one of the very few ancestral Democratic areas that could revert back a little. They are not particularly conservative counites (Madison, St Clair, etc).


Of course we really can not predict more than a decade into the future.
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jimmie
jamespol
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,705


« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2019, 07:50:53 pm »
« Edited: August 21, 2019, 03:08:36 am by jimmie »

It is impossible to predict how elections will go long term especially more than a decade in advanced.

Yes the GOP will have to adapt but so many assume Illinois will flip and save the GOP electorally. That is mathematically impossible.

The GOP will adapt to win in the future that could include Illinois but ot would be a stupid state to focus on entirely.
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jimmie
jamespol
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,705


« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2019, 07:24:07 pm »

Illinois could become a Republican state in the future but it will not be the GOP's savior.
The GOP will have to adjust to demographic changes.
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