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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era (search mode)
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Author Topic: GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era  (Read 4876 times)
Idaho Conservative
BWP Conservative
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 597
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.00, S: 4.00

« on: August 03, 2019, 01:13:18 am »

The GOP party will attempt to galvanize the Latino vote and it will be a Tom Cotton, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz primary in 2024. Winning NH and NV, is the only way conservatives can get back the presidency. They won't duplicate Trump path of stealing WI/PA or MI away from the Dems again.

Cruz will win the nomination, unless Rubio runs and attempt to make inroads in NH and NV.

The same will apply to 2028, if another GOP senator or governor run.


For a long time I thought that if Trump lost in 2020, Cruz would be the nominee in 2024 and he would get decimated.

Nevada is a very precarious path to 270 based on its history in recent times and demographics are far more favorable to the GOP in Wisconsin, Michigan and PA then they are in Nevada.

By 2024, I expect GA to have gone Democratic and there is nothing the Hispanic vote will do to stop that. Meaning that the GOP needs Michigan to compensate.

2016 proved that it is far easier to the Republicans embrace economic nationalism for rust belt votes than it is to reverse the clock back to 2004. And politics like water, follows the path of least resistance.
why be weak and accept blue GA?  Keep it red, no matter what.  A more favorable judiciary could help corrective measures be ruled constitutional.
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Idaho Conservative
BWP Conservative
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 597
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.00, S: 4.00

« Reply #1 on: August 09, 2019, 12:42:07 am »

The GOP party will attempt to galvanize the Latino vote and it will be a Tom Cotton, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz primary in 2024. Winning NH and NV, is the only way conservatives can get back the presidency. They won't duplicate Trump path of stealing WI/PA or MI away from the Dems again.

Cruz will win the nomination, unless Rubio runs and attempt to make inroads in NH and NV.

The same will apply to 2028, if another GOP senator or governor run.


For a long time I thought that if Trump lost in 2020, Cruz would be the nominee in 2024 and he would get decimated.

Nevada is a very precarious path to 270 based on its history in recent times and demographics are far more favorable to the GOP in Wisconsin, Michigan and PA then they are in Nevada.

By 2024, I expect GA to have gone Democratic and there is nothing the Hispanic vote will do to stop that. Meaning that the GOP needs Michigan to compensate.

2016 proved that it is far easier to the Republicans embrace economic nationalism for rust belt votes than it is to reverse the clock back to 2004. And politics like water, follows the path of least resistance.
why be weak and accept blue GA?  Keep it red, no matter what.  A more favorable judiciary could help corrective measures be ruled constitutional.

One doesn't use "corrective measures" when a state starts going against you.

The simple fact of the matter is that the Democrats have a solid or rising floor and the Republican ceiling is dropping every cycle. This doesn't just apply to Georgia, but most every sunbelt state.

As white voters become more educated and more secular, the the GOP percentage among the white vote will continue to drop from the inflated levels that it has been at since the 1990s (basically when Boomers became dominate voting block). This is especially so since the inflated levels skew heavily from Boomer whites while younger whites are far less race conscious, far less religious and thus far more Democratic.

As the Republicans can no longer command such inflated 65%, 75% and in Mississippi a whopping 85% of the white vote, the rising Democrat tide will swamp them making the sunbelt look a great deal like oceanic earth over 4 billion years ago with very little red clay to speak of.

Take this 2012 trend map:
 

Or the exit polling data compiled from 2014 that displays the differential between younger and older voters in most sunbelt states and the results are dramatic with Democrats performing in some cases 20 and 30 points better with younger voters.

Or take the 2016 trend map:


The major difference between the two is that one is driven more by minority voting and the other by education attainment. When you combine the two trends over time, and factor in the exit poll data mentioned above and then what we saw in 2018 in states like GA and TX, then you have four different elections that all point in the same direction.

The Republican South is the equivalent of a red barn in a designated flood zone for a TVA man made lake.

If you were to become immortal and travel to another galaxy and come back after 400 million years, you would not recognize the geography of the planet.

The political map is the same way. This was the first Republican Presidential victory after Trump's birth:


Just 30 years ago, the Republicans were just narrowly losing New York and California was their most reliable big state and Illinois was second most reliable.

The reason why so many people on this forum cannot fathom that now, is the same reason they could not fathom Pangea or Rodinia. We are used to seeing the South go Republican and thus the fact that  Virginia, GA, TX, NC and eventually maybe even MS might be solid Democratic again is scary.

The Republican Party survived 100 years without winning any of those states (except for some of them in 1928), it will adapt and evolve to meet the new reality just as life will evolve to meet the new realities this planet throws at it at least until the Sun bakes it into another Venus.
What I've noticed about you is you are all doom and gloom about republican chances in the south, but oppose any effort to fight back.  It's as if D trends are set in stone and immovable.  We are talking politics not physics, I agree republicans need to wake up and see these trends for what they are.  But we shouldn't preemptively surrender. Politics is about winning, a party which won't do what it takes to win doesn't deserve to.  The left is willing to challenge any societal or legal tradition, they fight, and they WIN.  Let's learn from them and go on the offense.  How about trying to get reynold v simms overturned?  How about states choosing electors by the state leg instead of statewide popular vote? Sure we might fail, better to fail after putting up a good fight tho.  Not like we have anything to lose.
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Idaho Conservative
BWP Conservative
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 597
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.00, S: 4.00

« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2019, 11:51:55 pm »

why be weak and accept blue GA?  Keep it red, no matter what.  A more favorable judiciary could help corrective measures be ruled constitutional.
If you were around in 1952, you’d be advocating “corrective measures” in order to bring back isolationism, Smoot-Hawley, and alcohol prohibition.
I'm a non interventionist, economic nationalist (we should punish outsourcing), but fine with alcohol.
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