GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era (user search)
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  GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era (search mode)
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Author Topic: GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era  (Read 11686 times)
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« on: August 16, 2019, 08:00:08 AM »

What the GOP needs to do is move to the European populist right and they'll win elections back again.

First post Trump victory



Assuming the re-alignmen led to modern liberal vs europopulist right split in 2040's/2050's



If split is moderate vs left wing populist more like this, which will improve GOP performances among minorities slowly (which could slow trends), while suburbanites could swing GOP quite fast.

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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,165
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2019, 08:10:17 AM »
« Edited: August 16, 2019, 08:14:11 AM by Lakigigar »

If the Republicans continue on its Northern trajectory, it will be via hinging around non-college whites, so the areas with the highest concentrations of non-college whites will flip first or harden if they already have. These would become the new "Base states" and then you have to look and find what demographics are easiest to flip to get you a majority either in a particular state or in the nation as whole.

Practically speaking we are already there since Trump won 66% with non-college whites, while losing college educated whites. Trump cobbled together a majority (of the EC) by minimizing the bleeding with the 2000s GOP base, sunbelt-evangelical suburbs, but if those voters are no longer viable paths (ie, they are dead or being outvoted by minority-millennial coalitions), you have to find alternative routes.

The number one rule is that whoever they go for, it will be the group that requires the party to change the least and that also will factor in who is the next Democratic President and what their focus is.

The easiest group to augment non-college whites would be Midwest suburban voters, particularly those suburbs that are lacking in diversity. This secures that region (save Illinois). These suburbs lack the pressures (see my post above about top heaviness with Boomer whites to offset minority margins) that are long term threatening the GOP in Texas and Georgia and would be more likely to bounce back afterwards. The GOP didn't lose any suburban House seats in Wisconsin or Ohio in 2018 (and yes gerrys were a factor of course), but even looking at the county results for Governor: DeWine did better than Trump in Delaware County, Walker did better in Wow, and Rauner did better in the collar counties. By contrast Kemp did worse than Trump in Cobb and Gwinnett. McSally did worse in Maricopa and Cruz did worse in Tarrant.

Granted these were Governor and Senate races, but we are seeing a level of GOP resilience in that area even with Trump as President that could translate into better performances post Trump, which leaves the GOP as a more Rust belt/Midwest centric party over the course of the next decade. This would invariably translate into candidates who by necessity of survival have to successfully combine Trump level support with non-college whites, and decent college white support in the suburbs. This would invariably translate into better performances over time in Illinois (~40s) and after a couple of cycles being shut out trying to go the GA/TX route (call it the sunbelt blue wall in a future scenario), throwing some money into Illinois begins to look appealing. Throw in some third party vote splitting and a narrow 48%-46% win in the 2030's isn't unreasonable.

Problem is that wouldnt get GOP to 270 EV even with 2010s appropriations of electoral college votes.





GOP only get to 257 EV with this map and in future decades that number will decrease. The fact is you need on of CA, NY, or TX to win elections and with all 3 gone , the GOP will be locked out.

Dems can even counter IL on that map with NC and in future decades maybe even just MS as well .

I think in the far future both NY and TX will/could be competitive. Upstate NY will swing dramatically republican, population decreases in rural NY and increases in NYC however, so i'd think it stays at least in the likely D column, but will get closer

TX has young suburbanites and hispanics. If the GOP wants to keep TX, they'll have to keep turnout low. Once TX is competitive, it will swing dramatically Democratic.

But maybe the GOP doesn't need any of those three states, even if GOP does very well among hispanics, i think TX will be lean / likely D

 

although maybe i just proved your point, because the EV's will be more in favour of the Dems...

But we will likely see a re-alignment. GOP must move to Euroright-wing populism or towards a right-wing liberal party. The post-Trump years will be hard, and i think the Dems might hold the presidency for a while, while downballot in the senate and house Republicans might do better. Some will be disaffected by the evolution of the GOP, unless it moves towards Europopulism. If it moves to Europopulism, we might see just like in Europe a stream from Labourites / soc dems towards the Europopulist party, who are now unlikely to vote GOP (exc. maybe Trump first term). If it moves towards a moderate right-wing conservative or a right-wing liberal party, it will slowly increase it's share among minorities and suburbanites over time and cancel current trends more, but it will depend on what the Democrats will become who will obviously be very socially liberal in the future.

But what is certain is that the GOP needs to change in order to stay competitive nationally and in TX.
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