GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era
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  GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era
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Author Topic: GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era  (Read 11668 times)
Former President tack50
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« Reply #75 on: August 21, 2019, 06:32:35 PM »

Here is a possible map that allows for a GOP victory without winning Illinois or Texas



271 R - 267 D

Granted it's not the most likely map in the world and it is very possible that redistribution of EVs mean this is a Dem victory after 2020 or 2030, but it is a map at least
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #76 on: August 21, 2019, 07:24:07 PM »

Illinois could become a Republican state in the future but it will not be the GOP's savior.
The GOP will have to adjust to demographic changes.
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Person Man
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« Reply #77 on: August 21, 2019, 07:45:31 PM »

The problem with that question is that a millenial born in 1992 in Tarrant County counts as "born in Texas" where as a Baby boomer who moved to Texas in 1992 counts as moved to Texas. You need an age break down of that question.

You also have to remember that for years the people moving to NC were Republican leaning and now that situation has changed. The same happened with New Hampshire.

The whole population of "Moved to Texas" doesn't matter if it includes people that where there voting in 2004. What matters is who is moving to Texas NOW and how they voting.

Yeah that probably explains the difference. Thanks.
That actually does make sense because exit polls have regularly said that if only transplants voted in Colorado, it would still be a red state.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #78 on: August 24, 2019, 02:22:24 PM »

Honestly I could see the answer being NY, with Republicans getting West Texas style margins from the Upstate in the 2030's. 
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #79 on: August 24, 2019, 02:32:01 PM »

Honestly I could see the answer being NY, with Republicans getting West Texas style margins from the Upstate in the 2030's. 

See, I just see this as too mathematically oriented.  People don’t slide along axes.  Upstate NY isn’t as homogeneous as West Texas in any sense.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #80 on: August 24, 2019, 03:19:10 PM »

Honestly I could see the answer being NY, with Republicans getting West Texas style margins from the Upstate in the 2030's. 

See, I just see this as too mathematically oriented.  People don’t slide along axes.  Upstate NY isn’t as homogeneous as West Texas in any sense.

There is a developing divide by industry in addition to the class/education and urban/rural divides that get much more attention.  If Trump gets reelected, it will in part be because there is a strong sense that protectionism is helping save jobs in a lot of industrial areas.  Over the course of 10-20 years of that, mid size industrial cities (of which there are plenty in Upstate NY, like Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester, etc.) could easily develop an attachment to Republicans that rivals the late 20th century oil patch.  I could even see Republicans eventually doing better in NY than in NJ/CT (not to mention MA) for this reason. 

Also, in part because it is so large, NYC is one of the least politically homogenous large cities.  There's a better path back to 30% for Republicans there than in any of the other giant cities save Houston where they already have >30%. 
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pops
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« Reply #81 on: August 24, 2019, 09:00:31 PM »

It's North Carolina



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538Electoral
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« Reply #82 on: August 24, 2019, 09:18:27 PM »

Here is a possible map that allows for a GOP victory without winning Illinois or Texas



271 R - 267 D

Granted it's not the most likely map in the world and it is very possible that redistribution of EVs mean this is a Dem victory after 2020 or 2030, but it is a map at least

Republicans could potentially upset in NJ in a few elections too.
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #83 on: August 31, 2019, 10:15:39 PM »

I think something alone the lines of this following?

270towin.com/maps/K8rke

But of course reallocation may complicate this path



What if the Repub nominee loses the SE as well though? Interesting thought experiment
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #84 on: September 01, 2019, 01:07:16 PM »

Wouldn't be totally shocked to see something like this becoming the case, either

i.imgur.com/xqVPxVm.png

And many years down the line, this could become a possibility too:

i.imgur.com/uRa0o2S.png
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #85 on: September 02, 2019, 03:27:15 AM »

Illinois could become a Republican state in the future but it will not be the GOP's savior.

The GOP will have to adjust to demographic changes.

Quoted just to remove that moving text
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #86 on: September 02, 2019, 10:53:13 AM »

VA can be won with a weak nominee like Warren or Harris but they arent likely nominees
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GM Team Member and Senator WB
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« Reply #87 on: September 02, 2019, 01:26:34 PM »

it'll be hard with increasing diversity, Republicans would need some serious outreach, but right now it seems they're turning away from that...
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Chips
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« Reply #88 on: January 30, 2021, 08:09:56 PM »

Long term it's probably 2020+WI, PA, MI, and then some or all of NV, NH, MN and ME at large.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #89 on: January 31, 2021, 12:03:17 AM »



I can see something like this being a close race in the 2050s. The GOP would probably need three out of the four swing states for a win.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #90 on: January 31, 2021, 12:15:29 AM »



I can see something like this being a close race in the 2050s. The GOP would probably need three out of the four swing states for a win.

I think Tennessee would flip before Mississippi or Louisiana. New Jersey and Delaware would also be close.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #91 on: January 31, 2021, 12:07:02 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2021, 12:23:41 PM by Skill and Chance »



I can see something like this being a close race in the 2050s. The GOP would probably need three out of the four swing states for a win.

I think Tennessee would flip before Mississippi or Louisiana. New Jersey and Delaware would also be close.

Yes, better urban/rural ratio, more artsy jobs, and more Northern transplants in TN.  Also, Dems would be less purely dependent on the black vote there, which will likely narrow between now and 2050, albeit slowly. 

Also think Dems are going to be more resilient in New England than the consensus here, because practically everyone goes to college there compared to the rest of the country.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #92 on: January 31, 2021, 12:36:05 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2021, 12:46:52 PM by Arachno-Statism »



I can see something like this being a close race in the 2050s. The GOP would probably need three out of the four swing states for a win.

I think Tennessee would flip before Mississippi or Louisiana. New Jersey and Delaware would also be close.

Yes, better urban/rural ratio, more artsy jobs, and more Northern transplants in TN.  Also, Dems would be less purely dependent on the black vote there, which will likely narrow between now and 2050, albeit slowly.  

Also think Dems are going to be more resilient in New England than the consensus here, because practically everyone goes to college there compared to the rest of the country.

But that's not counting changes in the platforms and coalitions of the parties. By the 2050s, I see the GOP looking a lot like it did early in the Fifth Party System, with support from both Midwestern populists and a sort of nouveau Eastern Establishment that emerged after a wilderness period in the 2020s. I don't buy that all prosperous and growing states trend Democrat forever, especially if they become the dominant party like I'm predicting. The honeymoon period would wear off, the coalition would become too big to keep, and the Republicans would eventually be able to crack into those states again with a Diet Democrat faction.

Keep in mind that Louisiana and New England are more like lean/likely/tilt margins in this scenario, which I probably should have indicated.
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Nightcore Nationalist
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« Reply #93 on: February 02, 2021, 03:05:58 PM »

Simple mathematics dictate that the GOP's path will require Texas and probably won't include GA outside of a wave election and will require at least 2, if not all 3 rust belt states.
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GeorgeBFree
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« Reply #94 on: February 08, 2021, 01:05:33 PM »

California is leading indicator for rest of US politics. Trump = Arnold (last gasp of conservatism by using celebrity to draw non-traditional voters), as there is a solid plurality of Americans who are in line with progressive politics (~46%) and there more than enough moderate Democrats to keep them over the hump. Dems have advantage as long as they can use stimulus or UBI to buy votes or identity politics to hold together otherwise conflicting coalitions.

Conservatism will come back when there is a sovereign default (or bad enough inflation to avoid it like the 1970's) on the federal level. Michigan started trending red when states finances collapsed, Eastern Europe abandoned communism when poor finances took down govt, CA and other blue states will flip red too when pension liabilities overwhelm them. However with the the Fed aligned with Treasury department and complacency on inflation this may take awhile. Until then left leaning politics whether under Democrats or watered down GOP will be dominant.
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allenwfm9000
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« Reply #95 on: February 09, 2021, 03:30:37 PM »

Continue with Trumpist populism
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #96 on: February 20, 2021, 12:14:30 AM »

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #97 on: February 20, 2021, 12:24:52 AM »

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #98 on: February 20, 2021, 04:13:12 AM »

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Close elections are more than likely going to be the norm. People have short attention spans and we are very divided culturally.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #99 on: February 20, 2021, 02:15:55 PM »
« Edited: February 20, 2021, 02:26:50 PM by TodayJunior »

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Sorry, perhaps I don’t understand what you mean by tipping point. I’m also not a Democrat. I’m a “NPA” (no party affiliation) as they call it here in Florida. I look at it from the standpoint of how both parties can build winning coalitions. Judging by the fact a stale wet fart like Biden can have 81 million votes and a 98% in party approval, just imagine what a stronger democrat could do.

By that similar notion, trump got 74 million; it’s hard to see how they add or surpass a net 7 million when their voter base is older, whiter, and shrinking in almost all American suburbs. People who vote once/first time voters are likely to vote again as it’s becoming more of a cultural norm. I doubt either party falls below 70 million going forward.

The other problem the GOP has is the fractured nature of their own coalition. I read an article from The Hill explaining how at least 1/3 would bolt the party if trump started a new party. His influence isn’t shrinking, it’s expanding. Sorry can’t post the link since I still haven’t reached 20 minimum posts.
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