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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: VirginiŠ)
  GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era
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Author Topic: GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era  (Read 4930 times)
Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
tack50
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« Reply #75 on: August 21, 2019, 06:32:35 pm »

Here is a possible map that allows for a GOP victory without winning Illinois or Texas



271 R - 267 D

Granted it's not the most likely map in the world and it is very possible that redistribution of EVs mean this is a Dem victory after 2020 or 2030, but it is a map at least
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jimmie
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« Reply #76 on: August 21, 2019, 07:24:07 pm »

Illinois could become a Republican state in the future but it will not be the GOP's savior.
The GOP will have to adjust to demographic changes.
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Wherever you want to go, you can't go there!
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #77 on: August 21, 2019, 07:45:31 pm »

The problem with that question is that a millenial born in 1992 in Tarrant County counts as "born in Texas" where as a Baby boomer who moved to Texas in 1992 counts as moved to Texas. You need an age break down of that question.

You also have to remember that for years the people moving to NC were Republican leaning and now that situation has changed. The same happened with New Hampshire.

The whole population of "Moved to Texas" doesn't matter if it includes people that where there voting in 2004. What matters is who is moving to Texas NOW and how they voting.

Yeah that probably explains the difference. Thanks.
That actually does make sense because exit polls have regularly said that if only transplants voted in Colorado, it would still be a red state.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #78 on: August 24, 2019, 02:22:24 pm »

Honestly I could see the answer being NY, with Republicans getting West Texas style margins from the Upstate in the 2030's. 
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #79 on: August 24, 2019, 02:32:01 pm »

Honestly I could see the answer being NY, with Republicans getting West Texas style margins from the Upstate in the 2030's. 

See, I just see this as too mathematically oriented.  People donít slide along axes.  Upstate NY isnít as homogeneous as West Texas in any sense.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #80 on: August 24, 2019, 03:19:10 pm »

Honestly I could see the answer being NY, with Republicans getting West Texas style margins from the Upstate in the 2030's. 

See, I just see this as too mathematically oriented.  People don’t slide along axes.  Upstate NY isn’t as homogeneous as West Texas in any sense.

There is a developing divide by industry in addition to the class/education and urban/rural divides that get much more attention.  If Trump gets reelected, it will in part be because there is a strong sense that protectionism is helping save jobs in a lot of industrial areas.  Over the course of 10-20 years of that, mid size industrial cities (of which there are plenty in Upstate NY, like Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester, etc.) could easily develop an attachment to Republicans that rivals the late 20th century oil patch.  I could even see Republicans eventually doing better in NY than in NJ/CT (not to mention MA) for this reason. 

Also, in part because it is so large, NYC is one of the least politically homogenous large cities.  There's a better path back to 30% for Republicans there than in any of the other giant cities save Houston where they already have >30%. 
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pops
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« Reply #81 on: August 24, 2019, 09:00:31 pm »

It's North Carolina



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538Electoral
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« Reply #82 on: August 24, 2019, 09:18:27 pm »

Here is a possible map that allows for a GOP victory without winning Illinois or Texas



271 R - 267 D

Granted it's not the most likely map in the world and it is very possible that redistribution of EVs mean this is a Dem victory after 2020 or 2030, but it is a map at least

Republicans could potentially upset in NJ in a few elections too.
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #83 on: August 31, 2019, 10:15:39 pm »

I think something alone the lines of this following?

270towin.com/maps/K8rke

But of course reallocation may complicate this path



What if the Repub nominee loses the SE as well though? Interesting thought experiment
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #84 on: September 01, 2019, 01:07:16 pm »

Wouldn't be totally shocked to see something like this becoming the case, either

i.imgur.com/xqVPxVm.png

And many years down the line, this could become a possibility too:

i.imgur.com/uRa0o2S.png
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Monstro
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« Reply #85 on: September 02, 2019, 03:27:15 am »

Illinois could become a Republican state in the future but it will not be the GOP's savior.

The GOP will have to adjust to demographic changes.

Quoted just to remove that moving text
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #86 on: September 02, 2019, 10:53:13 am »

VA can be won with a weak nominee like Warren or Harris but they arent likely nominees
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DOWnward Spiral
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« Reply #87 on: September 02, 2019, 01:26:34 pm »

it'll be hard with increasing diversity, Republicans would need some serious outreach, but right now it seems they're turning away from that...
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