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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era
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Author Topic: GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era  (Read 4854 times)
Sir Mohamed
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« on: July 22, 2019, 02:00:32 am »

Whether Trump gets a another term or not isn't the question, sooner or later there's going to be another GOP prez in the 2020s or 2030s. What will be his or her path to 270 EVs? Through running a populist campaign in the Midwest, breaking through the so called Blue Wall? Or will the victory map look similar to W's path minus VA and CO? Or something different?

Keep in mind the EC is changing after each census.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2019, 02:04:50 pm »

On the current path, I don't see a way forward.

Even a good map for the Republican is a losing map



Republican Party would have to be a very different party by then to win.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2019, 02:53:32 pm »

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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2019, 02:59:42 pm »

On the current path, I don't see a way forward.

Even a good map for the Republican is a losing map



Republican Party would have to be a very different party by then to win.

Flip New Mexico and Oregon and that map is a winner.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2019, 05:54:22 pm »

On the current path, I don't see a way forward.

Even a good map for the Republican is a losing map



Republican Party would have to be a very different party by then to win.

Flip New Mexico and Oregon and that map is a winner.

...but what demographics favor Republicans in New Mexico and Oregon?
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Cassandra
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« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2019, 08:34:32 pm »

The path Trump blazed ought to stay viable for a few more cycles.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #6 on: July 22, 2019, 09:14:11 pm »

On the current path, I don't see a way forward.

Even a good map for the Republican is a losing map



Republican Party would have to be a very different party by then to win.

Flip New Mexico and Oregon and that map is a winner.

...but what demographics favor Republicans in New Mexico and Oregon?

If the GOP/Dems become more and more polarized by urban-Coastal-minorities vs rural-"Heartland"-white, well there's your answer.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2019, 06:41:09 am »

The GOP can still easily win every state that Trump did. Even if PA and MI are off the table they should still be able to carry out a win in Wisconsin.
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mathstatman
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« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2019, 07:21:52 am »

Using 270ToWin EV projections, if the Dems pick up AZ + GA + NC and the GOP picks up NH, the result would be a 269-269 tie.

https://www.270towin.com/custom-maps/projected-2024-electoral-vote-allocation
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Kyng
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« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2019, 11:55:07 am »

Let's suppose demographic changes push TX + AZ + GA into the Democratic column (which, in addition to the Hillary 2016 states, would be a 298-240 EV win for the Democrats on the 2024 map). How does the GOP respond? I can think of a few ways:

1. Become more competitive with minorities

Perhaps the GOP manages to appeal to Asians or white Hispanics or whoever. If they do this, they should at least keep TX (and probably also GA and AZ) out of the 'Safe D' column, so their current path to 270 would still be viable.

2. Become more competitive with moderate whites

This would be necessary if TX (and AZ and GA) move out of reach. The first states to fall with this path would be MN + NH + ME-AL; however, that still yields a 283-255 win for the Democrats. However, I can see them making further gains in places like New England, especially if they moderate on the 'religious right' stuff (or if the Democrats' increasingly minority-centric coalition leads to anti-whiteness in their ranks, which they fail to tackle effectively). If the GOP can win something like ME-01 + RI + DE + OR, then that gets them to 270-268.

3. Ride their own wave of demographic change

As in scenario #2, the GOP is winning MN + NH + ME-AL, getting them to 255 electoral votes. The remaining 15 will come from demographic changes which are in their favour. If liberals and minorities are moving to the Sun Belt in large enough numbers to put TX + AZ + GA out of reach, then they're moving from somewhere, and the places they're moving from will become more conservative as a result. For example, perhaps Chicago's population drops to the point where IL becomes competitive - and then, the GOP gets over 270 by flipping it.



Do note that, in the map where Democrats are winning 283-255 (that is, 2016 + TX + AZ + GA - MN - NH - ME-AL), they're only winning 20 states to the GOP's 30. If the Democrats rely on this coalition, then they're going to have a serious Senate problem - so the GOP will still be able to exert a lot of influence even if they fall short of winning the presidency.
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« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2019, 01:37:30 pm »

On the current path, I don't see a way forward.

Even a good map for the Republican is a losing map



Republican Party would have to be a very different party by then to win.

Flip New Mexico and Oregon and that map is a winner.

...but what demographics favor Republicans in New Mexico and Oregon?

If the GOP/Dems become more and more polarized by urban-Coastal-minorities vs rural-"Heartland"-white, well there's your answer.

Um, Oregon is urban and coastal and New Mexico is majority minorities, so I don't see your point. If Knute couldn't win Oregon, no Republican can, and winning New Mexico would require a realignment. A map like this for a cycle or two might get the GOP on board with NPV.
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« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2019, 09:20:01 pm »

As long as the GOP can keep winning TX and FL getting to 270 will remain easy, if TX and FL stay Republican, than even if AZ, GA and NC, all 3 go full democratic, than Trump 2016 + MN will be enough to win. The GOP can afford to lose virtually all the large competitive states in the south and west as long as they can win TX and FL.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2019, 10:48:01 pm »

Figuring that Donald Trump will be an electoral disaster in 2020 and that the Democrat will win a second term for all practical purposes...

Yes, the Democrat will win a second term because the conditions that applied to Clinton, Dubya, and Obama will still be there: even a mediocre President gets a second term. Should the incumbent President be in no condition to run for re-election, I expect that that President will have invested some political capital in the Vice-President who will (pardon the use of a Reagan-era expression) stay the course.  So far I see Trump as unspeakably awful and I expect him to take down his political enablers with him.

The best that the Republicans can hope for is that Americans will tire of the Democrat in due time. The last time that such happened involved the elder Bush as a successor to the highly-successful Ronald Reagan. Bush could not offer a coherent vision for a Second Act, and he lost to someone who could. Clinton promised to maintain the Reagan-Bush foreign policy that people liked. Clinton won.

Two of the leaders in the Democratic contention for nomination (Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden) are unusually old candidates. In view of actuarial concerns about life expectancy and mental debility, either could be one-term Presidents for reasons of health. In such a case the Democrats may have invested in a competent nominee for VP who runs for election for an open Presidency in 2024 and, as is usual for even a mediocre President, gets re-elected. Now what about 2028 or 2032?

Donald Trump is completely discredited, and Republicans have moved away from him. Maybe in some recession some Republican governor has the reputation of miraculously avoiding the worst. Or a Democratic President has had a highly-successful war (not of his choosing, but the blunder of provoking the USA was a really bad idea -- see Saddam Hussein, who expected to get away with annexing Kuwait) and the Republicans nominate an Eisenhower-like general to be President.

We can rule out as a possibility that we will have a business tycoon with no political experience. Donald Trump will be the last such person for perhaps a century. We will more likely have a sports hero (probably a bad idea, too).

This assumes that the Republican Party will not fade as did the Federalists and Whigs. In such a case the Democratic Party becomes and unwieldy big-tent Party and splits into regional and social factions -- maybe a Social Democratic Party and a Christian Democratic Party. Such would be a modern version of the formation of the Whigs and the Republican Party.   

 
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2019, 07:38:45 pm »

The GOP party will attempt to galvanize the Latino vote and it will be a Tom Cotton, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz primary in 2024. Winning NH and NV, is the only way conservatives can get back the presidency. They won't duplicate Trump path of stealing WI/PA or MI away from the Dems again.

Cruz will win the nomination, unless Rubio runs and attempt to make inroads in NH and NV.

The same will apply to 2028, if another GOP senator or governor run









































































































































































































































.












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morgankingsley
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« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2019, 02:22:21 am »

The GOP party will attempt to galvanize the Latino vote and it will be a Tom Cotton, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz primary in 2024. Winning NH and NV, is the only way conservatives can get back the presidency. They won't duplicate Trump path of stealing WI/PA or MI away from the Dems again.

Cruz will win the nomination, unless Rubio runs and attempt to make inroads in NH and NV.

The same will apply to 2028, if another GOP senator or governor run









































































































































































































































.














Why did your post have the biggest amount of blank space in the history of internet posting
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #15 on: July 27, 2019, 05:31:18 pm »

The GOP party will attempt to galvanize the Latino vote and it will be a Tom Cotton, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz primary in 2024. Winning NH and NV, is the only way conservatives can get back the presidency. They won't duplicate Trump path of stealing WI/PA or MI away from the Dems again.

Cruz will win the nomination, unless Rubio runs and attempt to make inroads in NH and NV.

The same will apply to 2028, if another GOP senator or governor run.


For a long time I thought that if Trump lost in 2020, Cruz would be the nominee in 2024 and he would get decimated.

Nevada is a very precarious path to 270 based on its history in recent times and demographics are far more favorable to the GOP in Wisconsin, Michigan and PA then they are in Nevada.

By 2024, I expect GA to have gone Democratic and there is nothing the Hispanic vote will do to stop that. Meaning that the GOP needs Michigan to compensate.

2016 proved that it is far easier to the Republicans embrace economic nationalism for rust belt votes than it is to reverse the clock back to 2004. And politics like water, follows the path of least resistance.
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jrk26
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« Reply #16 on: July 28, 2019, 04:05:01 pm »

The GOP party will attempt to galvanize the Latino vote and it will be a Tom Cotton, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz primary in 2024. Winning NH and NV, is the only way conservatives can get back the presidency. They won't duplicate Trump path of stealing WI/PA or MI away from the Dems again.

Cruz will win the nomination, unless Rubio runs and attempt to make inroads in NH and NV.

The same will apply to 2028, if another GOP senator or governor run









































































































































































































































.














Why did your post have the biggest amount of blank space in the history of internet posting

Because he isn't too bright.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #17 on: August 03, 2019, 01:13:18 am »

The GOP party will attempt to galvanize the Latino vote and it will be a Tom Cotton, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz primary in 2024. Winning NH and NV, is the only way conservatives can get back the presidency. They won't duplicate Trump path of stealing WI/PA or MI away from the Dems again.

Cruz will win the nomination, unless Rubio runs and attempt to make inroads in NH and NV.

The same will apply to 2028, if another GOP senator or governor run.


For a long time I thought that if Trump lost in 2020, Cruz would be the nominee in 2024 and he would get decimated.

Nevada is a very precarious path to 270 based on its history in recent times and demographics are far more favorable to the GOP in Wisconsin, Michigan and PA then they are in Nevada.

By 2024, I expect GA to have gone Democratic and there is nothing the Hispanic vote will do to stop that. Meaning that the GOP needs Michigan to compensate.

2016 proved that it is far easier to the Republicans embrace economic nationalism for rust belt votes than it is to reverse the clock back to 2004. And politics like water, follows the path of least resistance.
why be weak and accept blue GA?  Keep it red, no matter what.  A more favorable judiciary could help corrective measures be ruled constitutional.
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MB
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« Reply #18 on: August 03, 2019, 02:16:22 am »

I could see a 2040s-ish GOP win electoral map looking something like this:

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #19 on: August 03, 2019, 03:00:29 am »

The GOP party will attempt to galvanize the Latino vote and it will be a Tom Cotton, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz primary in 2024. Winning NH and NV, is the only way conservatives can get back the presidency. They won't duplicate Trump path of stealing WI/PA or MI away from the Dems again.

Cruz will win the nomination, unless Rubio runs and attempt to make inroads in NH and NV.

The same will apply to 2028, if another GOP senator or governor run.


For a long time I thought that if Trump lost in 2020, Cruz would be the nominee in 2024 and he would get decimated.

Nevada is a very precarious path to 270 based on its history in recent times and demographics are far more favorable to the GOP in Wisconsin, Michigan and PA then they are in Nevada.

By 2024, I expect GA to have gone Democratic and there is nothing the Hispanic vote will do to stop that. Meaning that the GOP needs Michigan to compensate.

2016 proved that it is far easier to the Republicans embrace economic nationalism for rust belt votes than it is to reverse the clock back to 2004. And politics like water, follows the path of least resistance.

This.  There's a ton of handwringing here about how much trouble the GOP is in if e.g. more of the South flips in the next 2-3 elections, but between the 2 extremes, Dems getting narrowly shut out of everything but the House for ~20 years like the late 19th century is the far more plausible scenario.  The idea of generational Dem dominance based on changing demographics had definitively failed by 2014, and it's naive to keep resurrecting it.  It might work in a specific state or 2 (GA?), but even then most of the recent Dem gains in the South are more about consolidating the college + vote than anything else.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2019, 04:08:11 pm »

GOP wont be able to do what Trump did in 2016, Trump was only to win the midwest due the Wikileaks scandal and Gary Johnson.

Gary Johnson isnt running anymore, more than likely its Schultz in 2020 and he wont have the same enthusiasm as Johnson did.

If its Biden-Ryan or Harris-Beto, whom appeal to rust belt and sunbelt, the 270 map is gone for next two elections
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #21 on: August 08, 2019, 11:59:25 pm »

The GOP party will attempt to galvanize the Latino vote and it will be a Tom Cotton, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz primary in 2024. Winning NH and NV, is the only way conservatives can get back the presidency. They won't duplicate Trump path of stealing WI/PA or MI away from the Dems again.

Cruz will win the nomination, unless Rubio runs and attempt to make inroads in NH and NV.

The same will apply to 2028, if another GOP senator or governor run.


For a long time I thought that if Trump lost in 2020, Cruz would be the nominee in 2024 and he would get decimated.

Nevada is a very precarious path to 270 based on its history in recent times and demographics are far more favorable to the GOP in Wisconsin, Michigan and PA then they are in Nevada.

By 2024, I expect GA to have gone Democratic and there is nothing the Hispanic vote will do to stop that. Meaning that the GOP needs Michigan to compensate.

2016 proved that it is far easier to the Republicans embrace economic nationalism for rust belt votes than it is to reverse the clock back to 2004. And politics like water, follows the path of least resistance.
why be weak and accept blue GA?  Keep it red, no matter what.  A more favorable judiciary could help corrective measures be ruled constitutional.

One doesn't use "corrective measures" when a state starts going against you.

The simple fact of the matter is that the Democrats have a solid or rising floor and the Republican ceiling is dropping every cycle. This doesn't just apply to Georgia, but most every sunbelt state.

As white voters become more educated and more secular, the the GOP percentage among the white vote will continue to drop from the inflated levels that it has been at since the 1990s (basically when Boomers became dominate voting block). This is especially so since the inflated levels skew heavily from Boomer whites while younger whites are far less race conscious, far less religious and thus far more Democratic.

As the Republicans can no longer command such inflated 65%, 75% and in Mississippi a whopping 85% of the white vote, the rising Democrat tide will swamp them making the sunbelt look a great deal like oceanic earth over 4 billion years ago with very little red clay to speak of.

Take this 2012 trend map:
 

Or the exit polling data compiled from 2014 that displays the differential between younger and older voters in most sunbelt states and the results are dramatic with Democrats performing in some cases 20 and 30 points better with younger voters.

Or take the 2016 trend map:


The major difference between the two is that one is driven more by minority voting and the other by education attainment. When you combine the two trends over time, and factor in the exit poll data mentioned above and then what we saw in 2018 in states like GA and TX, then you have four different elections that all point in the same direction.

The Republican South is the equivalent of a red barn in a designated flood zone for a TVA man made lake.

If you were to become immortal and travel to another galaxy and come back after 400 million years, you would not recognize the geography of the planet.

The political map is the same way. This was the first Republican Presidential victory after Trump's birth:


Just 30 years ago, the Republicans were just narrowly losing New York and California was their most reliable big state and Illinois was second most reliable.

The reason why so many people on this forum cannot fathom that now, is the same reason they could not fathom Pangea or Rodinia. We are used to seeing the South go Republican and thus the fact that  Virginia, GA, TX, NC and eventually maybe even MS might be solid Democratic again is scary.

The Republican Party survived 100 years without winning any of those states (except for some of them in 1928), it will adapt and evolve to meet the new reality just as life will evolve to meet the new realities this planet throws at it at least until the Sun bakes it into another Venus.
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marty
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« Reply #22 on: August 09, 2019, 12:09:00 am »

Something will happen somewhere along the line that will hurt the dems and give gop an opening.

This board MUST ditch the insane idea that the dems will have a "lock" on the presidency. There has never been a party with a lock on the presidency. Ever.

I don't care what year it is or what the demographic makeup of the electorate is: if a dem is in power and a recession hits around election time, the dem will lose.

Do you guys not grasp that the single fastest growing preference is "unaffiliated"? People are fed up with both parties. Dems aren't exactly all sunshine and ice cream right now.

Also, their current coalition of fiscally conservative suburban whites and hardcore urban progressives will fall apart once trump leaves and is no longer common enemy.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #23 on: August 09, 2019, 12:42:07 am »

The GOP party will attempt to galvanize the Latino vote and it will be a Tom Cotton, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz primary in 2024. Winning NH and NV, is the only way conservatives can get back the presidency. They won't duplicate Trump path of stealing WI/PA or MI away from the Dems again.

Cruz will win the nomination, unless Rubio runs and attempt to make inroads in NH and NV.

The same will apply to 2028, if another GOP senator or governor run.


For a long time I thought that if Trump lost in 2020, Cruz would be the nominee in 2024 and he would get decimated.

Nevada is a very precarious path to 270 based on its history in recent times and demographics are far more favorable to the GOP in Wisconsin, Michigan and PA then they are in Nevada.

By 2024, I expect GA to have gone Democratic and there is nothing the Hispanic vote will do to stop that. Meaning that the GOP needs Michigan to compensate.

2016 proved that it is far easier to the Republicans embrace economic nationalism for rust belt votes than it is to reverse the clock back to 2004. And politics like water, follows the path of least resistance.
why be weak and accept blue GA?  Keep it red, no matter what.  A more favorable judiciary could help corrective measures be ruled constitutional.

One doesn't use "corrective measures" when a state starts going against you.

The simple fact of the matter is that the Democrats have a solid or rising floor and the Republican ceiling is dropping every cycle. This doesn't just apply to Georgia, but most every sunbelt state.

As white voters become more educated and more secular, the the GOP percentage among the white vote will continue to drop from the inflated levels that it has been at since the 1990s (basically when Boomers became dominate voting block). This is especially so since the inflated levels skew heavily from Boomer whites while younger whites are far less race conscious, far less religious and thus far more Democratic.

As the Republicans can no longer command such inflated 65%, 75% and in Mississippi a whopping 85% of the white vote, the rising Democrat tide will swamp them making the sunbelt look a great deal like oceanic earth over 4 billion years ago with very little red clay to speak of.

Take this 2012 trend map:
 

Or the exit polling data compiled from 2014 that displays the differential between younger and older voters in most sunbelt states and the results are dramatic with Democrats performing in some cases 20 and 30 points better with younger voters.

Or take the 2016 trend map:


The major difference between the two is that one is driven more by minority voting and the other by education attainment. When you combine the two trends over time, and factor in the exit poll data mentioned above and then what we saw in 2018 in states like GA and TX, then you have four different elections that all point in the same direction.

The Republican South is the equivalent of a red barn in a designated flood zone for a TVA man made lake.

If you were to become immortal and travel to another galaxy and come back after 400 million years, you would not recognize the geography of the planet.

The political map is the same way. This was the first Republican Presidential victory after Trump's birth:


Just 30 years ago, the Republicans were just narrowly losing New York and California was their most reliable big state and Illinois was second most reliable.

The reason why so many people on this forum cannot fathom that now, is the same reason they could not fathom Pangea or Rodinia. We are used to seeing the South go Republican and thus the fact that  Virginia, GA, TX, NC and eventually maybe even MS might be solid Democratic again is scary.

The Republican Party survived 100 years without winning any of those states (except for some of them in 1928), it will adapt and evolve to meet the new reality just as life will evolve to meet the new realities this planet throws at it at least until the Sun bakes it into another Venus.
What I've noticed about you is you are all doom and gloom about republican chances in the south, but oppose any effort to fight back.  It's as if D trends are set in stone and immovable.  We are talking politics not physics, I agree republicans need to wake up and see these trends for what they are.  But we shouldn't preemptively surrender. Politics is about winning, a party which won't do what it takes to win doesn't deserve to.  The left is willing to challenge any societal or legal tradition, they fight, and they WIN.  Let's learn from them and go on the offense.  How about trying to get reynold v simms overturned?  How about states choosing electors by the state leg instead of statewide popular vote? Sure we might fail, better to fail after putting up a good fight tho.  Not like we have anything to lose.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #24 on: August 09, 2019, 10:57:46 am »

Something will happen somewhere along the line that will hurt the dems and give gop an opening.

This board MUST ditch the insane idea that the dems will have a "lock" on the presidency. There has never been a party with a lock on the presidency. Ever.

I don't care what year it is or what the demographic makeup of the electorate is: if a dem is in power and a recession hits around election time, the dem will lose.

Do you guys not grasp that the single fastest growing preference is "unaffiliated"? People are fed up with both parties. Dems aren't exactly all sunshine and ice cream right now.

Also, their current coalition of fiscally conservative suburban whites and hardcore urban progressives will fall apart once trump leaves and is no longer common enemy.

This.

Parties change, realignments change.

The GOP will not be extinct.

We live in a two-party system, not a one-party utopia. Never have, never will--unless Americans are foolish to allow it.

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