GOP path to 270 beyond Trump-era

[OSR stands with Israel]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Sorry, perhaps I don’t understand what you mean by tipping point. I’m also not a Democrat. I’m a “NPA” (no party affiliation) as they call it here in Florida. I look at it from the standpoint of how both parties can build winning coalitions. Judging by the fact a stale wet fart like Biden can have 81 million votes and a 98% in party approval, just imagine what a stronger democrat could do.

By that similar notion, trump got 74 million; it’s hard to see how they add or surpass a net 7 million when their voter base is older, whiter, and shrinking in almost all American suburbs. People who vote once/first time voters are likely to vote again as it’s becoming more of a cultural norm. I doubt either party falls below 70 million going forward.

The other problem the GOP has is the fractured nature of their own coalition. I read an article from The Hill explaining how at least 1/3 would bolt the party if trump started a new party. His influence isn’t shrinking, it’s expanding. Sorry can’t post the link since I still haven’t reached 20 minimum posts.

The popular vote does not determine elections and also in this election , Trump made considerable inroads  with minority voters

[TodayJunior]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Sorry, perhaps I don’t understand what you mean by tipping point. I’m also not a Democrat. I’m a “NPA” (no party affiliation) as they call it here in Florida. I look at it from the standpoint of how both parties can build winning coalitions. Judging by the fact a stale wet fart like Biden can have 81 million votes and a 98% in party approval, just imagine what a stronger democrat could do.

By that similar notion, trump got 74 million; it’s hard to see how they add or surpass a net 7 million when their voter base is older, whiter, and shrinking in almost all American suburbs. People who vote once/first time voters are likely to vote again as it’s becoming more of a cultural norm. I doubt either party falls below 70 million going forward.

The other problem the GOP has is the fractured nature of their own coalition. I read an article from The Hill explaining how at least 1/3 would bolt the party if trump started a new party. His influence isn’t shrinking, it’s expanding. Sorry can’t post the link since I still haven’t reached 20 minimum posts.

The popular vote does not determine elections and also in this election , Trump made considerable inroads  with minority voters

Sure, if you use 2008, 2012, 2016 as benchmarks. But the last time the GOP did significantly better among ALL demographics was W in 2004, and they also happened to win nationally as well. Winning the national popular vote may not be how elections are ultimately decided, but only 5 in our history have not turned out that way, so it’s not likely to happen very often, and it’s a foolish gamble really to count on the electoral college to save you. If I were a republican (and I have voted that way some of the time), I’d want to broaden as much as possible winning coalition rather than wait for a lucky break or wait for Dems to nominate a hated candidate (Hillary Clinton).

The GOP needs to have a much broader reach. It seems every cycle there are more safe Democrat states than Republican ones, and the ones trending Democrat are growing and vice versa with few exceptions.

[Bush did 311]

What a dumpster fire of a thread. How are people seriously making the argument that most people moving into Texas are conservatives? That is blatantly false when you look at the growing regions of the state: every county with a booming population has zoomed left over the past decade.

It's an exit poll so take it with a grain of salt, but the conservative expat narrative isn't totally baseless. If transplants are whiter and older than 'natives' and 'native' millennial whites aren't voting GOP at the ultra high rates of their boomer parents, it isn't that far out there to think transplants are a bit to the right of born and raised Texans.

I suspect in TX as well as NC and GA to some extent, it is not necessarily the people moving to Texas but their kids who are shifting the state. 1st gens count as 'born in Texas' in these polls.

Anyway, I think the rustbelt is the future of the GOP. Right populism worked and it clearly would've worked again if the panfemic hadn't spoiled things. The three critical states shifted away from the national average. I think this process will continue, and Dems offset it with sunbelt gains. Bigger changes like the mid-atlantic and the gulf coast are more long term and hard to guage.

[R.P. McM]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

[EastwoodS]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

[RRusso1982]

No one can accurately predict the future.  Right after the Gulf War of 1991, when Old Man Bush's approval ratings were 90%, there were articles written questioning whether the Democrats could ever win another national election.  The Republicans had won the last 3 Presidential elections in landslides.  The Republicans had won 5 of the last 6 Presidential elections, and the Democrats only barely won the other.  A lot of people concluded that the Democrats were just a congressional party for the foreseeable future.  Then the next year, what happened?  The lowly governor of Arkansas knocks off Old Man Bush, who all the big name Democrats were all running scared from just a year and a half prior.

[R.P. McM]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

Huh? I don't think Clinton actually achieved any sort of realignment. My supposition is that the GOP can no longer carry more than ~46% of the vote in a national election. In which case, the current dynamic is far more akin to Northern Ireland than any situation that prevailed in postwar America. I guess we'll see. When do you suppose the Republican candidate will once again earn 50.1% in a presidential election? It's now been 17 years since that last occurred.

[EastwoodS]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

Huh? I don't think Clinton actually achieved any sort of realignment. My supposition is that the GOP can no longer carry more than ~46% of the vote in a national election. In which case, the current dynamic is far more akin to Northern Ireland than any situation that prevailed in postwar America. I guess we'll see. When do you suppose the Republican candidate will once again earn 50.1% in a presidential election? It's now been 17 years since that last occurred.

Bc 1992-2016 can very much be classified as a more Dem friendly era at the presidential level. Why should I think 46% is the GOPs limit?

[R.P. McM]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

Huh? I don't think Clinton actually achieved any sort of realignment. My supposition is that the GOP can no longer carry more than ~46% of the vote in a national election. In which case, the current dynamic is far more akin to Northern Ireland than any situation that prevailed in postwar America. I guess we'll see. When do you suppose the Republican candidate will once again earn 50.1% in a presidential election? It's now been 17 years since that last occurred.

Bc 1992-2016 can very much be classified as a more Dem friendly era at the presidential level. Why should I think 46% is the GOPs limit?

Why not? The Republican candidate hasn't earned a majority since 2004, 17 years ago.

[EastwoodS]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

Huh? I don't think Clinton actually achieved any sort of realignment. My supposition is that the GOP can no longer carry more than ~46% of the vote in a national election. In which case, the current dynamic is far more akin to Northern Ireland than any situation that prevailed in postwar America. I guess we'll see. When do you suppose the Republican candidate will once again earn 50.1% in a presidential election? It's now been 17 years since that last occurred.

Bc 1992-2016 can very much be classified as a more Dem friendly era at the presidential level. Why should I think 46% is the GOPs limit?

Why not? The Republican candidate hasn't earned a majority since 2004, 17 years ago.

As I literally just said...

[R.P. McM]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

Huh? I don't think Clinton actually achieved any sort of realignment. My supposition is that the GOP can no longer carry more than ~46% of the vote in a national election. In which case, the current dynamic is far more akin to Northern Ireland than any situation that prevailed in postwar America. I guess we'll see. When do you suppose the Republican candidate will once again earn 50.1% in a presidential election? It's now been 17 years since that last occurred.

Bc 1992-2016 can very much be classified as a more Dem friendly era at the presidential level. Why should I think 46% is the GOPs limit?

Why not? The Republican candidate hasn't earned a majority since 2004, 17 years ago.

As I literally just said...

No idea what you just said. Other than an attempt to demarcate 1992-2016 as a Democratic era which just concluded, based on nothing whatsoever. No, your racist, seditionist sexual predator earned 46.8% of the vote, not much different than 2016, 2012, or 2008.

[EastwoodS]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

Huh? I don't think Clinton actually achieved any sort of realignment. My supposition is that the GOP can no longer carry more than ~46% of the vote in a national election. In which case, the current dynamic is far more akin to Northern Ireland than any situation that prevailed in postwar America. I guess we'll see. When do you suppose the Republican candidate will once again earn 50.1% in a presidential election? It's now been 17 years since that last occurred.

Bc 1992-2016 can very much be classified as a more Dem friendly era at the presidential level. Why should I think 46% is the GOPs limit?

Why not? The Republican candidate hasn't earned a majority since 2004, 17 years ago.

As I literally just said...

No idea what you just said. Other than an attempt to demarcate 1992-2016 as a Democratic era which just concluded, based on nothing whatsoever. No, your racist, seditionist sexual predator earned 46.8% of the vote, not much different than 2016, 2012, or 2008.

Hahahha. Trump can’t help it that he can’t appeal to a bunch of emotional, impulsive cucks.

[R.P. McM]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

Huh? I don't think Clinton actually achieved any sort of realignment. My supposition is that the GOP can no longer carry more than ~46% of the vote in a national election. In which case, the current dynamic is far more akin to Northern Ireland than any situation that prevailed in postwar America. I guess we'll see. When do you suppose the Republican candidate will once again earn 50.1% in a presidential election? It's now been 17 years since that last occurred.

Bc 1992-2016 can very much be classified as a more Dem friendly era at the presidential level. Why should I think 46% is the GOPs limit?

Why not? The Republican candidate hasn't earned a majority since 2004, 17 years ago.

As I literally just said...

No idea what you just said. Other than an attempt to demarcate 1992-2016 as a Democratic era which just concluded, based on nothing whatsoever. No, your racist, seditionist sexual predator earned 46.8% of the vote, not much different than 2016, 2012, or 2008.

Hahahha. Trump can’t help it that he can’t appeal to a bunch of emotional, impulsive cucks.

"Cucks"? You'll have to clarify your meaning, otherwise I have to report you for using racist alt-right terminology.

[EastwoodS]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

Huh? I don't think Clinton actually achieved any sort of realignment. My supposition is that the GOP can no longer carry more than ~46% of the vote in a national election. In which case, the current dynamic is far more akin to Northern Ireland than any situation that prevailed in postwar America. I guess we'll see. When do you suppose the Republican candidate will once again earn 50.1% in a presidential election? It's now been 17 years since that last occurred.

Bc 1992-2016 can very much be classified as a more Dem friendly era at the presidential level. Why should I think 46% is the GOPs limit?

Why not? The Republican candidate hasn't earned a majority since 2004, 17 years ago.

As I literally just said...

No idea what you just said. Other than an attempt to demarcate 1992-2016 as a Democratic era which just concluded, based on nothing whatsoever. No, your racist, seditionist sexual predator earned 46.8% of the vote, not much different than 2016, 2012, or 2008.

Hahahha. Trump can’t help it that he can’t appeal to a bunch of emotional, impulsive cucks.

"Cucks"? You'll have to clarify your meaning, otherwise I have to report you for using racist alt-right terminology.

Yes, I love oppressing people.

[R.P. McM]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

Huh? I don't think Clinton actually achieved any sort of realignment. My supposition is that the GOP can no longer carry more than ~46% of the vote in a national election. In which case, the current dynamic is far more akin to Northern Ireland than any situation that prevailed in postwar America. I guess we'll see. When do you suppose the Republican candidate will once again earn 50.1% in a presidential election? It's now been 17 years since that last occurred.

Bc 1992-2016 can very much be classified as a more Dem friendly era at the presidential level. Why should I think 46% is the GOPs limit?

Why not? The Republican candidate hasn't earned a majority since 2004, 17 years ago.

As I literally just said...

No idea what you just said. Other than an attempt to demarcate 1992-2016 as a Democratic era which just concluded, based on nothing whatsoever. No, your racist, seditionist sexual predator earned 46.8% of the vote, not much different than 2016, 2012, or 2008.

Hahahha. Trump can’t help it that he can’t appeal to a bunch of emotional, impulsive cucks.

"Cucks"? You'll have to clarify your meaning, otherwise I have to report you for using racist alt-right terminology.

Yes, I love oppressing people.

We're not going to play this stupid game. So I'll do the non-racist Republican members of this forum a favor by starting your eviction process.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

Huh? I don't think Clinton actually achieved any sort of realignment. My supposition is that the GOP can no longer carry more than ~46% of the vote in a national election. In which case, the current dynamic is far more akin to Northern Ireland than any situation that prevailed in postwar America. I guess we'll see. When do you suppose the Republican candidate will once again earn 50.1% in a presidential election? It's now been 17 years since that last occurred.

Bc 1992-2016 can very much be classified as a more Dem friendly era at the presidential level. Why should I think 46% is the GOPs limit?

Why not? The Republican candidate hasn't earned a majority since 2004, 17 years ago.

As I literally just said...

No idea what you just said. Other than an attempt to demarcate 1992-2016 as a Democratic era which just concluded, based on nothing whatsoever. No, your racist, seditionist sexual predator earned 46.8% of the vote, not much different than 2016, 2012, or 2008.

Hahahha. Trump can’t help it that he can’t appeal to a bunch of emotional, impulsive cucks.

"Cucks"? You'll have to clarify your meaning, otherwise I have to report you for using racist alt-right terminology.

LMAO how is 'cuck' racist? I'm a leftist but the left sure does live up to its stereotype of being offended at jokes lol

[R.P. McM]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

Huh? I don't think Clinton actually achieved any sort of realignment. My supposition is that the GOP can no longer carry more than ~46% of the vote in a national election. In which case, the current dynamic is far more akin to Northern Ireland than any situation that prevailed in postwar America. I guess we'll see. When do you suppose the Republican candidate will once again earn 50.1% in a presidential election? It's now been 17 years since that last occurred.

Bc 1992-2016 can very much be classified as a more Dem friendly era at the presidential level. Why should I think 46% is the GOPs limit?

Why not? The Republican candidate hasn't earned a majority since 2004, 17 years ago.

As I literally just said...

No idea what you just said. Other than an attempt to demarcate 1992-2016 as a Democratic era which just concluded, based on nothing whatsoever. No, your racist, seditionist sexual predator earned 46.8% of the vote, not much different than 2016, 2012, or 2008.

Hahahha. Trump can’t help it that he can’t appeal to a bunch of emotional, impulsive cucks.

"Cucks"? You'll have to clarify your meaning, otherwise I have to report you for using racist alt-right terminology.

LMAO how is 'cuck' racist? I'm a leftist but the left sure does live up to its stereotype of being offended at jokes lol

Well, to comprehend it, you'd have to be somewhat honest and/or somewhat intelligent. Do I believe you're either of those things? Probably not. No, what EastwoodS implied is a typical alt-right slur: that non-fascist whites oppose Trump because they're determined to be cuckholded by nonwhite interlopers. Doubt me? Then come up with some plausible, alternative interpretation.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

There isn't a path forward for them until a full generation has passed that has forgotten about DJT. It's just that simple and bad for them. They own it.

Why are you acting like you won a 1980 style win in 2020 when instead you guys won the tipping point state by less than Trump did in 2016

Suppose that, due to polarization, the GOP is no longer capable of earning more than ~46% of the national popular vote. Yes, there could be circumstances in which the EC overrides the will of the majority (Trump). But those circumstances would be rare, presumably, and only serve to further harden the majority against the ~46%. The dynamic would be more akin to Northern Ireland than 1980's America. Is it likely? Assuming the GOP can reverse its descent into deranged authoritarianism, probably not. But given the current trajectory of the party, it's not out of the realm of possibility.      

no, Bill Clinton's electoral realignment is just slipping from the modern Democratic party, think 1948, 1964.

Huh? I don't think Clinton actually achieved any sort of realignment. My supposition is that the GOP can no longer carry more than ~46% of the vote in a national election. In which case, the current dynamic is far more akin to Northern Ireland than any situation that prevailed in postwar America. I guess we'll see. When do you suppose the Republican candidate will once again earn 50.1% in a presidential election? It's now been 17 years since that last occurred.

Bc 1992-2016 can very much be classified as a more Dem friendly era at the presidential level. Why should I think 46% is the GOPs limit?

Why not? The Republican candidate hasn't earned a majority since 2004, 17 years ago.

As I literally just said...

No idea what you just said. Other than an attempt to demarcate 1992-2016 as a Democratic era which just concluded, based on nothing whatsoever. No, your racist, seditionist sexual predator earned 46.8% of the vote, not much different than 2016, 2012, or 2008.

Hahahha. Trump can’t help it that he can’t appeal to a bunch of emotional, impulsive cucks.

"Cucks"? You'll have to clarify your meaning, otherwise I have to report you for using racist alt-right terminology.

LMAO how is 'cuck' racist? I'm a leftist but the left sure does live up to its stereotype of being offended at jokes lol

Well, to comprehend it, you'd have to be somewhat honest and/or somewhat intelligent. Do I believe you're either of those things? Probably not. No, what EastwoodS implied is a typical alt-right slur: that non-fascist whites oppose Trump because they're determined to be cuckholded by nonwhite interlopers. Doubt me? Then come up with some plausible, alternative interpretation.

have fun sperging out over jokes lol

[Non Swing Voter]

Republicans not caring about the larger and larger popular vote deficits is a real mistake.  The US is a highly transit country.  People move to different states all the time.  When one party consistently wins by 5-10 million votes, they clearly have an advantage that their voters will be in some configuration of states that wins 270+ votes.  You can clearly see this phenomenon play out in the Southwest where California's influence has clearly bled out into New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and now Arizona.

Anyways, with respect to the original question, the best path for the GOP is to try to hold Ohio, Florida, and Texas.  Ohio should be easy.  The other two are more questionable.  They will need to also hold onto Georgia, I'm more skeptical of them doing this long term.  And they will need to take back Wisconsin.  That would make Michigan and Pennsylvania the clear battlegrounds.  It's basically a strategy that leaves zero room for error, but their only other possibility is to do a massive overhaul of their policy platform and the current faces of their party which are both toxic to suburban voters.

[EastwoodS]

Republicans not caring about the larger and larger popular vote deficits is a real mistake.  The US is a highly transit country.  People move to different states all the time.  When one party consistently wins by 5-10 million votes, they clearly have an advantage that their voters will be in some configuration of states that wins 270+ votes.  You can clearly see this phenomenon play out in the Southwest where California's influence has clearly bled out into New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and now Arizona.

Anyways, with respect to the original question, the best path for the GOP is to try to hold Ohio, Florida, and Texas.  Ohio should be easy.  The other two are more questionable.  They will need to also hold onto Georgia, I'm more skeptical of them doing this long term.  And they will need to take back Wisconsin.  That would make Michigan and Pennsylvania the clear battlegrounds.  It's basically a strategy that leaves zero room for error, but their only other possibility is to do a massive overhaul of their policy platform and the current faces of their party which are both toxic to suburban voters.

Florida really isn’t questioning-able for a consistent GOP wins.

[pbrower2a]

Republicans will need a new coalition. What they have is aging without obvious replenishment as it is more Christian fundamentalist and more trusting of Big Business to do right even if what Big Business does doesn't feel right.

Fossil fuels is a huge part of the GOP coalition, and proponents of non-fossil fuels at the expense of coal and petroleum tend to the D side. When the oil fields of western Texas finally go dry, then western Texas will be rich in energy production. Solar energy! Heck, even Dallas often feels more like Phoenix than any other large city outside Texas, due to the brutally hot, dry summers. (OK, maybe Tucson, Las Vegas, Bakersfield, or Fresno).