When will Atlantic County, NJ flip?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  When will Atlantic County, NJ flip?
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Author Topic: When will Atlantic County, NJ flip?  (Read 429 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: February 28, 2021, 09:30:39 PM »

Atlantic County, NJ hasn’t voted Democratic since 1988, but Republicans have made inroads here. When will it finally flip on the presidential level?
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2021, 09:50:02 PM »

Seems to be a pretty stubborn place that has voted either 6-7 points or 15-18 points in favor of Ds consistently for the past 30 years. Doubtful it's got enough juice in it to flip R.

1992   D+5.90
1996   D+17.90
2000   D+18.97
2004   D+5.90
2008   D+15.03
2012   D+16.84
2016   D+6.97
2020   D+6.69
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kwabbit
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« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2021, 09:57:44 PM »

It could flip in 2024 if Republicans do well. It voted 2 points to the left of the nation in 2020. If it trended a few more points R and was now at 1 point to the right of the nation, then the R nominee would have a strong shot.

The county is somewhat diverse and somewhat educated however, so it's not as though Democrats significantly overperform their demographics.

South Jersey is trending R, but it's too diverse, too educated, and too densely populated to ever become an R stronghold.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: March 12, 2021, 10:00:19 PM »

This feels like the kind of county where Trump probably over performed.  Working class.  Rural-ish areas, minority population.  Not really educated.  I don't see a GOP candidate doing better than Trump there in the next 10 years.
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