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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: VirginiŠ)
  If these are the party coalitions in 2040, how do you react?
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Author Topic: If these are the party coalitions in 2040, how do you react?  (Read 1182 times)
President Biden
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« on: August 17, 2019, 07:31:13 pm »

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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2019, 07:34:40 pm »

Isnít that basically a whites vs everyone else map in 2040? The only obvious exceptions seem to be Florida, West Virginia Vermont, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. Illinois would be the tipping point state?
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2019, 08:14:00 pm »

Isnít that basically a whites vs everyone else map in 2040? The only obvious exceptions seem to be Florida, West Virginia Vermont, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. Illinois would be the tipping point state?

WV isnít that hard to explain:

- Coal has Become dead for quite some time

- DC suburbs expand into WV



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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2019, 12:55:15 pm »

It's not at all crazy.  I think an East vs. West divide is more likely.  Not a lot of evidence that the Deep South is moving Dem outside of megacities.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2019, 11:08:07 pm »

I think an East vs. West divide is more likely. 
Wasnít there an East vs. West divide in 1976, and, to a lesser extent, in 1980?
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2019, 12:22:34 am »

In terms of east vs west, this is the map of the absolute change in state margins between 2000-2016, a nice 16 year period in which there has been a lot of change in America in different areas, the east vs west divide is pretty clear in this map.

The map works out to 272 for the GOP, 266 for dems and 27 states for GOP and 23 for dems, a nice illustration of how evenly both parties have gained and lost ground since the beginning of the century.


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MABA 2020
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« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2019, 06:29:47 am »

I would be happy that politics moved in exactly the direction I expected it to
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2019, 01:46:40 pm »

In terms of east vs west, this is the map of the absolute change in state margins between 2000-2016, a nice 16 year period in which there has been a lot of change in America in different areas, the east vs west divide is pretty clear in this map.

The map works out to 272 for the GOP, 266 for dems and 27 states for GOP and 23 for dems, a nice illustration of how evenly both parties have gained and lost ground since the beginning of the century.




That is roughly what I anticipate a close 2040 map would look like.  However, I think MA will be the last state holding the Dem line in New England, not VT/NH.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2019, 01:50:54 pm »

I (rationally) donít have set expectations for political alignments in 2040.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2019, 01:58:02 pm »

I (rationally) donít have set expectations for political alignments in 2040.

Is it because the current trajectory of both Parties saddens you?
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2019, 02:21:49 pm »

I (rationally) donít have set expectations for political alignments in 2040.

Is it because the current trajectory of both Parties saddens you?

Partially, but current trajectories are ... ya know ... current.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #11 on: August 29, 2019, 07:23:56 pm »

I (rationally) donít have set expectations for political alignments in 2040.

Is it because the current trajectory of both Parties saddens you?

Partially, but current trajectories are ... ya know ... current.

Silly pretty boy RINO Tom. You just make up whatever you want the map to be, using your own, personal ideological and aesthetic reasons, and boom! You can predict maps up to a hundred years out.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #12 on: August 30, 2019, 07:31:04 am »

We are still maybe one or two major technological breakthroughs and perhaps three or four more traumatizing events from know what 2040 will look like.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #13 on: September 01, 2019, 02:22:14 pm »

I would be surprised to see the Deep/Coastal South states flip to the Dems en masse.  Virginia, Georgia, and Texas have undeniably shifted, but DC, Atlanta, and Houston are pretty sui generis and the I-35 cities of Texas are more culturally Western.  Elsewhere in the South, it's mostly small cities and relatively heavily populated rural areas.  There is a clear Dem path to 45% in many of these states by improving enough in the small cities, but 50%+ is a lot harder as we have already seen in NC and MS. 

Many of these states (NC/SC/TN) also have a substantial influx of wealthier than average retirees, who vote near unanimously R and are effectively counteracting the Dem trend in the small cities and their suburbs.  I also expect gradual Republican improvement with the black vote over the next decade or two, particularly in rural areas.  That would close the door pretty quickly on Democrats in LA/MS/AL/SC if it happens. 
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SlippingJimmy
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« Reply #14 on: September 03, 2019, 12:44:22 am »

Moft prepofterous
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