Do you think Idaho will be swing in 2040s
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March 18, 2024, 09:27:50 PM
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  Do you think Idaho will be swing in 2040s
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Author Topic: Do you think Idaho will be swing in 2040s  (Read 603 times)
Proud Houstonian
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« on: March 07, 2021, 10:39:42 AM »

Do you think Idaho will be swing in 2040s seeing Idahos rapid growth it can be swing in 2040s do you agree
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2021, 10:43:00 AM »

Will be swing?
I think I know what you’re trying to say and it’s possible, depends on Boise.
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beesley
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« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2021, 06:01:11 AM »

Will be swing?
I think I know what you’re trying to say and it’s possible, depends on Boise.

Fully agree. It's not out of the question. The rurals in Idaho swung right, heavily so in the East, but I attribute that to the lack of Evan McMullin and a declining third party vote more generally.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2021, 10:15:24 AM »

I don't know, with the way this forum talks will this be the map by 2040:



"because [insert Dem-trending county here] is growing and will make the state blue"
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2021, 10:50:23 AM »

Idaho is really interesting. On paper it should be moving left at near Georgia-speed - and maybe it is - but it's just so R that it doesn't really affect anything right now, and it's not 100% clear that it will in the future either.

However, 2018 had something really interesting happen. The Republican incumbent Superintendent of Public Instruction Sheri Ybarra won by just 5566 votes, 1.3%. So we actually have a map of roughly what a Democratic victory in Idaho would look like under current coalitions (which of course would require a Roy Moore scenario, but 2018 shows that clearly it's possible), and it's interesting:

- Huge D overperformance in cities - Ada and Bannock both voted Wilson +19 (before voting for Trump in 2020)
- Eastern rural margin-cut. This is really impressive. Franklin is possibly the most Mormon county in the country. In 2020, Biden got 10% of the vote in this county. Cindy Wilson in 2018 got 44%.

So the future Idaho D coalition, if there is ever to be one, seems to involve a realignment of Mormons, both urban and rural, to the Democratic Party, and quite a spectacular one at that. That plus population density trends seems to be just enough.*

*Democrats will have to figure out how to break in to small cities. Bannock (Pocatello) routinely votes D in statewide races and is represented by Democrats in the legislature, but Trump still won it big. This is also crucial for future victories in Kansas (get Salina and Hays looking like Iowa towns on that NYT map).
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beesley
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« Reply #5 on: March 08, 2021, 11:53:28 AM »

I don't know, with the way this forum talks will this be the map by 2040:



"because [insert Dem-trending county here] is growing and will make the state blue"

I simultaneously agree with your post and "because [insert Dem-trending county here] is growing and will make the state blue".
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: March 11, 2021, 12:00:37 PM »

Likely no.  IMO this would have required persistent Mormon 3rd party activity post-2016. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: March 11, 2021, 12:06:35 PM »

I don't know, with the way this forum talks will this be the map by 2040:



"because [insert Dem-trending county here] is growing and will make the state blue"

No, but Western Dems vs. Eastern GOP (except a for handful of Dem megacities) is not a crazy outcome

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