The Gravelanche

[Transgender for Everybody]

Again?! Socialists have taken over America before?

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

Again?! Socialists have taken over America before?

obabo

[Transgender for Everybody]

Again?! Socialists have taken over America before?

obabo

Right, I forgot the person who was saying it has an R next to his name.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

Dan

Dan Bishop yelled out at the monitor. "God damn it!"

Even in his generally Republican district, he was down 3 points. Damn liberals, wanting to destroy the nature of gender at their will... He could only hope that Trump could do better in the debate tomorrow. They both badly needed a bump.

Fmr. Sen. Mike Gravel (D-AK)/Entrepreneur Andrew Yang (D-NY): 305 EV, 50%
President Donald Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 182 EV, 42%
Businessman Howard Schultz (I-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (I-MD): 0 EV, 1%
Fmr. LNC Vice Chair Arvin Vohra (L-MD)/Internet Personality Dan Behrman (L-TX): 0 EV, 1%
Green Party Co-Founder Howie Hawkins (G-NY)/Youngstown Board of Education Member Dario Hunter (G-OH): 0 EV, 0%
Mr. Jim Bennett (U-UT)/Fmr. SC Superintendent of Education Jim Rex (U-SC): 0 EV, 0%
Other/Undecided: 6%
GRAVEL +8


(Bennett and Rex are running under the Unity Party, a centrist, reform-minded party. They're only on the ballot in Utah and have about 15% support there in polls)

[Transgender for Everybody]

I see you follow the transphobe's tradition of making trans people sound way cooler than we really are. "Destroy[ing] the nature of gender" sounds really badass.
(that said, everybody gangsta until Climbing Dan tries to pull an Abe Lincoln)

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

David

David Oks leaned back, watching the second debate unfold. He had ultimately decided to resign as campaign manager to enroll in Pembroke, but he still had some influence in the campaign.

"Mr. Gravel, recently, a number of Jewish leaders condemned you for what they believe is antisemitism, particularly with your involvement in the Boycotts, Divestments, Sanctions movement. What is your response to this?"

"Well, Anderson, I think people have gotten things messed around here. I do support Jewish people, and I strongly support a two-state solution. What I do not support is the current government of Israel, still led by Netanyahu after 4 elections, with a fifth one coming soon. He's an evil man, and needs to be in jail for bribery. But I'm getting off topic. His government has been conducting horrific attacks on Palestinians. Are there some bad people in Palestine? Of course! I'm not disputing that. But what we need is to pressure both sides into coming to the negotiating table and finally working out a comprehensive peace agreement. My campaign is against all conflict, remember that. I'm not out here saying 'Death to Israel' or anything crazy like that, I just want to make sure there aren't any more innocent civilians trapped in the crossfire here."

"Mr. Trump, your response."

"Look Anderson, I support Israel. We finally moved our embassy to Jerusalem, and let me tell you, no president has supported Israel more than me. Ok? Believe me. Little Mikey over here is just wanting us to cave to terrorists in Palestine, and we can't have that. Some Palestinians, I assume, are perfectly fine people. I've worked with many Palestinians. But you have members of the other party screaming out to destroy Israel, people who shouldn't even be here after what has happened elsewhere in the world, and honestly, I'd like to put em out back against a wall."


Well, Trump almost didn't f**k that up, though a statement like that isn't exactly new for him. Mike should be seeing a little bump again if the debate keeps going like this...

Who won the 2nd Presidential Debate (among debate watchers)?
Mike Gravel: 49%
Donald Trump: 39%
Draw/Undecided: 12%

Fmr. Sen. Mike Gravel (D-AK)/Entrepreneur Andrew Yang (D-NY): 305 EV, 50%
President Donald Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 164 EV, 41%
Businessman Howard Schultz (I-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (I-MD): 0 EV, 1%
Fmr. LNC Vice Chair Arvin Vohra (L-MD)/Internet Personality Dan Behrman (L-TX): 0 EV, 0%
Green Party Co-Founder Howie Hawkins (G-NY)/Youngstown Board of Education Member Dario Hunter (G-OH): 0 EV, 0%
Mr. Jim Bennett (U-UT)/Fmr. SC Superintendent of Education Jim Rex (U-SC): 0 EV, 0%
Other/Undecided: 8%
GRAVEL +9

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

Don

"S**t s**t s**t!"

"Mr. President, calm down! This might just be a temporary downturn-"

"get out of here. I need to let off steam."

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
23,667.22 -5240.91 (-18.13%)





Twitter photo: Taken from Trump's twitter account (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) [Kal please PM me if this needs to be changed]

Tweet Generator: https://www.prankmenot.com/?twitter_tweet

Fmr. Sen. Mike Gravel (D-AK)/Entrepreneur Andrew Yang (D-NY): 340 EV, 50%
President Donald Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 125 EV, 39%
Businessman Howard Schultz (I-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (I-MD): 0 EV, 1%
Fmr. LNC Vice Chair Arvin Vohra (L-MD)/Internet Personality Dan Behrman (L-TX): 0 EV, 0%
Green Party Co-Founder Howie Hawkins (G-NY)/Youngstown Board of Education Member Dario Hunter (G-OH): 0 EV, 0%
Mr. Jim Bennett (U-UT)/Fmr. SC Superintendent of Education Jim Rex (U-SC): 0 EV, 0%
Other/Undecided: 10%
GRAVEL +11

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

RACE FOR THE SENATE, PART 1

Alabama

Sen. Doug Jones vs. Fmr. Sen. Jeff Sessions vs. AL Chief Justice Tom Parker

Senator Doug Jones official photo U.S. Senate Photographic Studio-Renee Bouchard [Public domain
Jeff Sessions, official portrait United States Department of Justice [Public domain]
(There are literally no free use images of Tom Parker and I am sad)

After a bitter primary ending in a surprise runoff between Roy Moore and Jeff Sessions, Sessions came on top. Moore was unable to run as an independent or third party thanks to Alabama's "Sore Loser Law", but he was able to convince another Ultraconservative, Trumpist AL Justice to run. Tom Parker brands himself as "Trump's Choice". Trump himself has not endorsed either candidate, which has caused worries of a split vote leading to a Jones victory.

Alabama Senate Election, 2020 (Republican Primary)- Results (1st Round)
Fmr. Senator Jeff Sessions- 48.7%
Fmr. AL Chief Justice Roy Moore- 18.1%
Fmr. Auburn Coach Tommy Tuberville- 18.0%
Rep. Bradley Byrne- 12.3%
Businessman Stanley Adair- 1.7%
State Rep. Arnold Mooney- 1.2%

Alabama Senate Election, 2020 (Republican Primary)- Results (2nd Round)
Fmr. Senator Jeff Sessions- 59.9% ✓
Fmr. AL Chief Justice Roy Moore- 40.1%

POLLING AVERAGE: JONES+1, TILT D


Alaska

Dr. Al Gross vs. Sen. Dan Sullivan

Senator Dan Sullivan official
US Congress [Public domain]
(once again, no images for Gross. Oof)

In a closer than expected race, Dan Sullivan is expected to poll a few points behind Trump, and with Trump in high single digits, there are some serious concerns that Sullivan could fall, though he still has the advantage.

POLLING AVERAGE: SULLIVAN+4, LEAN R


Arizona Special

Fmr. Astronaut Mark Kelly vs. Sen. Martha McSally

Sen. Martha McSally official Senate headshot 116th congress
United States Senate Photographic Studio [Public domain]
Mark E. Kelly
NASA/JSC [Public domain]

A key race to control of the Senate, Arizona seems to be a race that is getting further and further away from Republicans. A number of NRSC officials have expressed a desire to triage the race, but there's still a lot of money pouring into this one.

POLLING AVERAGE: KELLY+5, LEAN D


Arkansas

Sen. Tom Cotton

Tom Cotton official Senate photo
United States Congress [Public domain]

With no major opposition, Cotton is expected to win in a landslide.

POLLING AVERAGE: NO POLLS, SAFE R


Colorado

Fmr. Governor John Hickenlooper vs. Sen. Cory Gardner

Cory Gardner official Senate portrait
United States Congress [Public domain]

John Hickenlooper by Gage Skidmore
Gage Skidmore [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)]

After winning the primary in a landslide, Hickenlooper, who dropped out of the Presidential race to run for the seat (inadvertently helping kickstart Gravel's candidacy), leads the increasingly unpopular Gardner, who continues to vote Conservatively.

Colorado Senate Election, 2020 (Democratic Primary)- Results
Fmr. Governor John Hickenlooper- 63.2% ✓
Fmr. Speaker of the CO House of Reps. Andrew Romanoff- 34.7%
Professor Stephany Rose Spaulding- 2.1%

POLLING AVERAGE: HICKENLOOPER+9, LIKELY D


Delaware

Sen. Chris Coons

Chris Coons, official portrait, 112th Congress
United States Senate [Public domain]

With no opposition, Coons is all but reelected.

POLLING AVERAGE: NO POLLS, SAFE D


Georgia

Fmr. Mayor Teresa Tomlinson vs. Sen. David Perdue

David Perdue, Official Portrait, 114th Congress
U.S. Senate Photographic Studio-Rebecca Hammel [Public domain]
Mayor Teresa Tomlinson Official Photo
Official Image of the Mayor [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)]

Many pundits have predicted that the two Georgian Senate seats are the most likely ones to decide the balance of power in the Senate. Tomlinson, though not considered the strongest potential candidate (most said that Rep. Lucy McBath would be better), has proved an effective campaigner. Thanks to the close presidential race in the state, the margins are also close.

Georgia Senate Election, 2020 (Democratic Primary)- Results (1st Round)
Fmr. Mayor Teresa Tomlinson- 33.5%
Mr. Jon Ossoff- 30.4%
Mayor Ted Terry- 17.2%
State Rep. Eric Holcomb- 13.3%
Pastor Raphael Wornock- 5.6%

Georgia Senate Election, 2020 (Democratic Primary)- Results (2nd Round)
Fmr. Mayor Teresa Tomlinson- 52.3% ✓
Mr. Jon Ossoff- 47.7%

POLLING AVERAGE:TIED, TOSSUP


Georgia Special

Fmr. State Sen. Jason Carter vs. Sen. Kelly Loeffler

Senator Kelly Loeffler
U.S. Senator Kelly Loeffler [Public domain]
Jason Carter 02
Anne Almasy [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)]
(Apparently they decided to only make 128px wide pics for Loeffler?)

Just like the regular election, the Special is being heavily contested, with Jason Carter emerging as the Democratic candidate.

Georgia Senate Special Election, 2020 (Democratic Primary)- Results
Fmr. State Sen. Jason Carter- 50.9% ✓
State Sen. Nikema Williams- 27.8%
DeKalb County Chief Executive Mike Thurmond- 17.8%
Businessman Matt Lieberman: 3.5%

POLLING AVERAGE:LOEFFLER+1, TILT R


Idaho

State Sen. Mark Nye vs. Sen. Jim Risch

(no picture)

Jim Risch official portrait
US Senate [Public domain]

A safe R race in a safe R state. Nothing to see here.

POLLING AVERAGE: RISCH+19, SAFE R


Illinois

Sen. Dick Durbin vs. Fmr. Lake County Sherriff Mark Curran vs. Businessman Willie Wilson

(no picture)
Willie Wilson 2015
James Mellinger [CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)]
Richard Durbin official photo
Jeff McEvoy, U.S. Senate [Public domain]

The current Minority Whip faces a minor challenge from Fmr. Lake County Sherriff Curran, as well as from Willie Wilson.

POLLING AVERAGE: DURBIN+15, SAFE D

Iowa

Real Estate Broker Theresa Greenfield vs. Sen. Joni Ernst

(no image)
Joni Ernst official portrait
US Senate Photography [Public domain]

After an uneventful Democratic Primary, the Iowa Senate race has heated up quickly, with Gravel leading polls in the state by 3 points, there's some serious concerns that Ernst will lose unless Trump picks up momentum, which will be difficult.

POLLING AVERAGE: GREENFIELD+2, TILT D

Kansas

State Sen. Barbard Bollier vs. Fmr. KS Sec. of State Kris Kobach

(no picture)
Kris Kobach Kansas, Secretary of State (13419571233) (cropped)
Alice Linahan  Voices Empower [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)]

After a divisive primary and weeks-long recount, Kobach has ended up on top once again, throwing this race into turmoil. He still has the edge right now, but it's pretty close for comfort in this D trending state.

Kansas Senate Election, 2020 (Republican Primary)- Results
Fmr. KS Sec. of State Kris Kobach - 30.46%
Rep. Roger Marshall- 30.45%
President of the KS State Senate Susan Wagle- 21.32%
Kansas Turnpike Authority Chairman Dave Lindstrom- 11.15%
Kansas Board of Education Member Steve Roberts- 4.32%
Commentator Bryan Pruitt- 2.30%

POLLING AVERAGE: KOBACH+3, LEAN R


Kentucky

Fmr. Marine Amy McGrath vs. Sen. Mitch McConnell

Mitch McConnell 2016 official photo (cropped)
U.S. Government [Public domain]
Amy McGrath Event- (49220643717) 1
Louise Palanker from Los Angeles/Santa Barbara, USA [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)]

McConnell has one of the lowest approval ratings in the Senate, but many believe he will quite easily hold on. He still is expected to poll several points behind Trump though.

POLLING AVERAGE: MCCONNELL+7, LIKELY R

Louisiana

Fmr. Mayor Mitch Landrieu vs. Sen. Bill Cassidy

Bill Cassidy official Senate photo
United States Congress [Public domain]
Mayor Mitch Landrieu 2010
Infrogmation (talk) of New Orleans [CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)]

Although others are in this race, these two have polled far above the rest. Cassidy seems likely to win a majority on the first round.

POLLING AVERAGE: CASSIDY+13, SAFE R

Maine

State House Speaker Sara Gideon vs. Sen. Susan Collins

(no picture)
Susan Collins official Senate photo
United States Congress [Public domain]

Collins has been rapidly moderating her record in an attempt to regain popularity, but even with this she has fallen in the polls. This is another key race for 2020.

POLLING AVERAGE: GIDEON+2, TILT D

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

RACE FOR THE SENATE, PART 2

Massachusetts

Sen. Ed Markey vs. Scientist Shiva Ayydurai

V.A.Shiva.2012
Photo taken by Darlene DeVita in Boston, MA. Media file by Rocky Acosta. [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)]
Edward Markey, official portrait, 114th Congress
U.S. Senate Photographic Studio-Rebecca Hammel [Public domain]

Markey's biggest challenge was in the primary. He faces only token opposition in the self-proclaimed "inventor of Email" Ayydurai.

Massachusetts Senate Election, 2020 (Democratic Primary)- Results
Sen. Ed Markey- 53.3% ✓
Rep. Joe Kennedy III- 43.9%
Attorney Shannon Liss-Riordan- 2.8%

POLLING AVERAGE: MARKEY+20, SAFE D

Michigan

Sen. Gary Peters vs. Businessman John James

John James
John James for Senate [CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)]
Gary Peters official photo 115th congress
US Senate Photography [Public domain]

Originally expected to be a close race, the national environment has helped make this race go more and more in favor of Peters.

POLLING AVERAGE: PETERS+7, LIKELY D

Minnesota

Sen. Tina Smith vs. Fmr. Rep. Jason Lewis

Jason Lewis, official portrait, 115th congress
U.S. House Office of Photography/House Creative Services [Public domain]
Tina Smith, official portrait, 116th congress
U.S. Senate Photographic Studio [Public domain]

A race that was considered almost safe for the Democrats from the start has been helped by the national environment and the mediocre candidate quality of Lewis.

POLLING AVERAGE: SMITH+10, SAFE D

Mississippi

Fmr. Sec. of Agriculture Mike Espy vs. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith

Cindy Hyde-Smith official photo
U.S. Senate [Public domain]
Mike Espy 20120223-OCE-RBN-1281 (cropped 2)
U.S. Department of Agriculture

Bob Nichols/Photographer/United States Department of Agriculture-Office of Communications-Photography Services Division [Public domain]

Although the margins are in the single digits for Hyde-Smith, the renowned inelasticity of Mississippi makes this race safe in reality, though it's rated as Likely due to the current margin.

POLLING AVERAGE: HYDE-SMITH+8, LIKELY R


Montana

Mayor Wilmot Collins vs. Sen. Steve Daines

Steve Daines, Official Portrait, 116th Congress
U.S. Senate Photographic Studio [Public domain]
Wilmot Collins Interviewed by VOA in 2017 (cropped)
Voice of America [Public domain]

Originally considered a recruiting failure, as Governor Steve Bullock refused to run, the Helena Mayor has proved to be a surprisingly good campaigner. The race still is reasonably Republican-leaning, but it's getting closer...

POLLING AVERAGE: DAINES+5, LEAN R

Nebraska

Fmr. Mayor Chris Beutler vs. Sen. Ben Sasse

Ben Sasse official portrait (cropped)
US Senate Photography [Public domain]
Chris Beutler 2011
lincolnearthday [CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)]

Beutler is considered the strongest contender Democrats had in this race, but the state is still deeply Republican.

POLLING AVERAGE: SASSE+21, SAFE R


New Hampshire

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen vs. Ret. Brigadier General Don Bolduc

Donald C. Bolduc
U.S. Special Operations Command Africa [Public domain]
Jeanne Shaheen, official Senate photo portrait, 2009
United States Senate photo studio [Public domain]

Although NH is a swingy state, this race has not been particularly close, especially as the tide continues to turn against Trump and other Rs.

POLLING AVERAGE: SHAHEEN+9, LIKELY D

New Jersey

Sen. Cory Booker vs. Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno

Kim Guadagno 2011 (cropped)
GreatFallsNPS [CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)]
Cory Booker, official portrait, 114th Congress
Senate of the United States [Public domain]

The popular Booker is easily cruising to re-election.

POLLING AVERAGE: BOOKER+17, SAFE D

New Mexico

Rep. Ben Ray Lujan vs. Fmr. Rep. Steve Pearce

Steve Pearce official photo
US House Office of Photography [Public domain]
BenLujan2016
U.S. Congress [Public domain]

After Fmr. Governor Susana Martinez declined to run, this race has been considered safe D. The only Republican to run that wasn't a "rando" was Pearce.

POLLING AVERAGE: LUJAN+12, SAFE D

North Carolina

Fmr. State Sen. Cal Cunningham vs. Sen. Thom Tillis

Thom Tillis Official Photo
United States Senate Photography Studio [Public domain]
James "Cal" Cunningham (cropped)
Graysonbarnette [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)]

Tillis' team has begun to panic, and Tillis has moderated his voting somewhat, but this is hardly holding back the current Democratic tide.

POLLING AVERAGE: CUNNINGHAM+2, TILT D

Oklahoma

Fmr. State Sen. Connie Johnson vs. Sen. Jim Inhofe

Jim Inhofe official portrait
United States Senate Photography [Public domain]
Johnson c
Oklahoma Legislative Service Bureau [Public domain]

The octogenarian Senator faces a challenge from DSA member Connie Johnson. Inhofe is cruising to re-election easily.

POLLING AVERAGE: INHOFE+22, SAFE R

Oregon

Sen. Jeff Merkley vs. Dance Teacher Robert Schwartz

[no image]
Jeff Merkley, 115th official photo
United States Senate [Public domain]

The incumbent progressive Senator only has a little-known sacrificial lamb running against him, and his re-election is all but guaranteed.

POLLING AVERAGE: MERKLEY+24, SAFE D

Rhode Island

Sen. Jack Reed vs. RI House Minority Leader Blake Filippi

Blake Filippi (32685249547)
Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)]
Senator Jack Reed official photo
US House Office of Photography [Public domain]

Sen. Reed faces a challenge from House Republican Leader Filippi. In this solidly D state, Filippi is doing better than some would expect, though he's still pretty much guaranteed to lose.

POLLING AVERAGE: REED+11, SAFE D

South Carolina

Fmr. Dem. State Party Chair Jaime Harrison vs. Sen. Lindsey Graham

Lindsey Graham, Official Portrait 2006
US Senate [Public domain]
DNC Winter Meet 0498 Jamie Harrison (33210877215) (cropped)
Edward Kimmel from Takoma Park, MD [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)]

Graham was able to avoid a primary challenge after becoming one of Trump's strongest defenders. Jaime Harrison is giving Graham a tough challenge, but without a major shakeup, this seat remains in Republican hands.

POLLING AVERAGE: GRAHAM+9, LIKELY R

South Dakota

Fmr. US Attorney Brendan Johnson vs. Sen. Mike Rounds

Mike Rounds official Senate portrait
United States Congress [Public domain]
Brendan Johnson
United States Department of Justice [Public domain]

Another safe R race with minor opposition. Did you really expect me to write up like a whole paragraph for each of these?

POLLING AVERAGE: ROUNDS+19, SAFE R

Tennessee

Singer-Songwriter Taylor Swift vs. Fmr. Ambassador Bill Hagerty

Ambassador Hagerty
US Embassy Tokyo [Public domain]
Taylor Swift 2 - 2019 by Glenn Francis (cropped) 3
Toglenn (Glenn Francis) [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)]

After a shock announcement, Taylor Swift entered the race, which made this otherwise Safe R race a tumultuous one. Hagerty still leads by a good margin, but Swift's name recognition has been extremely helpful to her in many ways.

POLLING AVERAGE: HAGERTY+7, LIKELY R

Texas

Ret. Air Force Major MJ Hegar vs. Sen. John Cornyn

John Cornyn
United States Senate Photography Office [Public domain]
MJHegar
MJ for Texas [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)]

In this increasingly diverse and purple state, Cornyn is in more and more trouble...

Texas Senate Election, 2020 (Democratic Primary)- Results
Ret. Air Force Major MJ Hegar- 33.6% ✓
State Sen. Royce West- 25.2%
Fmr. Rep. Chris Bell- 24.3%
Organizer Sema Hernandez- 12.1%
City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards- 4.8%


POLLING AVERAGE: CORNYN+2, TILT R

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

RACE FOR THE SENATE, PART 3

Virginia

Sen. Mark Warner vs. Jason Kessler vs Fmr. Rep. Barbara Comstock

Barbara Comstock official photo, 114th Congress
United States Congress [Public domain]
Jason Kessler (cropped)
Jason Kessler [CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)]
Mark Warner 113th Congress photo
United States Senate [Public domain]

The last-minute candidacy of Kessler left little chance for Republicans to field a serious candidate, as hardly any were in the race to begin with, and Kessler filed 6 hours before the deadline. Comstock entered the race as an Independent after Kessler narrowly won the primary.

Virginia Senate Election, 2020 (Republican Primary)- Results
Jason Kessler- 28.7% ✓
Ret. Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Gade- 27.2%
Attorney Victor Williams- 23.3%
Teacher Allissa Baldwin- 13.4%
Intelligence Officer Thomas Speciale- 4.8%

POLLING AVERAGE: WARNER+29, SAFE D

West Virginia

Activist Paula Jean Swearengin vs. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito

[no image]
Shelley Moore Capito official Senate photo
United States Congress [Public domain]

Incumbent Senator Shelley Moore Capito faces token opposition in environmental activist Paula Jean Swearengin.

POLLING AVERAGE: MOORE CAPITO+38, SAFE R

West Virginia

Businessman Gary Trauner vs. Rep. Liz Cheney

Liz Cheney official 116th Congress portrait
US House Office of Photography [Public domain]
Gary Trauner at Campbell County League of Women Voters' General Election Candidates' Forum in Gillette, Wyoming (1)
Mr. Satterly [WTFPL]

Cheney is set to take this seat in a landslide.

POLLING AVERAGE: CHENEY+36, SAFE R


Map of Senate Rankings based on polling (FL Represents GA-Special)

(green - tossup, 20% - tilt, 30% - lean, 50% - likely, 90% - safe)

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

RACE FOR THE GOVERNOR'S MANSIONS

Delaware

Gov. John Carney vs. Fmr. State Treasurer Ken Simpler

Kenneth A. Simpler
Oceantulip [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)]
John C. Carney Jr. official portrait 112th Congress
United States Congress [Public domain]

Simpler is expected to run for his old office should he lose, which seems likely, though polling has been sparse in this tiny state.

POLLING AVERAGE: CARNEY+12, SAFE D


Indiana

Fmr. IN House Speaker John Gregg vs. Gov. Eric Holcomb

Governor Eric Holcomb 2018 State of the State Address (cropped)
Governor Eric Holcomb [CC0]
John Gregg 2015
Mike Rankert [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)]

A rematch from 2016, Holcomb is expected to win by a large margin.

POLLING AVERAGE: HOLCOMB+15, SAFE R


Missouri

State Auditor Nicole Galloway vs. Gov. Mike Parsons

Mike Parson official photo
Office of Missouri Governor [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)]
Nicole Galloway Photo
Nicole Galloway for Missouri [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)]

Galloway is performing better than expected in polls, but it's only enough to move this race from Safe to Likely R.

POLLING AVERAGE: PARSONS+8, LIKELY R


Montana

Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney vs. Rep. Greg Gianforte

Greg Gianforte 115th congress
Franmarie Metzler [Public domain]
Mike Cooney cropped
Bureau of Land Management Montana and Dakotas [Public domain]

In what is sure to be a close race, the Lieutenant to highly popular Governor Bullock faces stiff opposition from Representative (and aspiring pro wrestler) Gianforte.

POLLING AVERAGE: COONEY+3, LEAN D

New Hampshire

State Sen. Maj. Leader Dan Feltes vs. Gov. Chris Sununu

Christopher T Sununu
Csununu [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)]
Dan Feltes (32101113887) (cropped)
Marc Nozell from Merrimack, New Hampshire, USA [CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)]

In a contest that appears to be the opposite of the Senate race, Sununu has a sizable lead in the polls, though he is still vulnerable.

(Also why the f**k does Feltes look like Tom Steyer put through a young age filter lol)

POLLING AVERAGE: SUNUNU+6, LIKELY R

North Carolina

Gov. Roy Cooper vs. Lt. Gov Dan Forest

Dan Forest - Flag
Andrew dunn013 [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)]
Gov. Roy Cooper
Chris Seward [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)]

Although a close race, Cooper has remained quite popular and has an edge in the polls.

POLLING AVERAGE: COOPER+5, LEAN D

North Dakota

Activist Kitty Rudd vs. Gov. Doug Burgum

[no image]
Governor Doug Burgum
Office of the Governor, State of North Dakota [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)]

An easy race for Republicans in this rural state.

POLLING AVERAGE: BURGUM+28, SAFE R

Utah

Fmr. Mayor Rocky Anderson vs. Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox

Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox of Utah (cropped)
Utah Reps (Utah House of Representatives) [CC0]
Rocky Anderson at MLK cropped
Rocky_Anderson_at_MLK.jpg: Don LaVange
derivative work: William S. Saturn [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)]

Anderson rejoined the Democrats after Gravel's nomination, and some say that he could join the Gravel Cabinet. Cox's big challenge was the primary against Fmr. Governor Huntsman.


Utah Gubernatorial Election, 2020 (Republican Primary)- Results
Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox - 50.2% ✓
Fmr. Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. - 49.8%

POLLING AVERAGE: COX+30, SAFE R


Vermont

Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman vs. Gov. Phil Scott

Phil Scott 2017
US Embassy Canada [Public domain]
Lt Gov David Zuckerman
ORCA Media [CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)]

In what is sure to be a close race in one of the most progressive states in the country, the incumbent, popular moderate Scott is being challenged by Progressive Lt. Gov. Zuckerman.

POLLING AVERAGE: SCOTT+1, TILT R

Washington

Gov. Jay Inslee vs. State Sen. Doug Eriksen

[no image*]
Jay Inslee official portrait
Office of the Governor of the State of Washington [Copyrighted free use]

Inslee is nearly guaranteed reelection, though there are rumblings of him being an EPA pick for a potential Gravel cabinet...

*apparently the copyright of the image on wikipedia is uncertain so I'm not using it

POLLING AVERAGE: INSLEE+16, SAFE D

West Virginia

Fmr. State Sen. Richard Ojeda vs. Gov. Jim Justice

Jim Justice 2017 InaugurationHighlights PB-63 (32366955776) (cropped)
Governor Jim Justice [Public domain]
MAJ Richard Ojeda
United States Army [Public domain]

Justice is Trump's man, and West Virginia is Trump country. Ojeda has made a strong grassroots effort though, saying that by the end of the campaign, he wants to have talked to at least half of the state's voters.

POLLING AVERAGE: JUSTICE+15, SAFE R

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

Justin

Justin Amash sat at home, watching the final debate. He didn't really know why, he knew he wasn't voting for either of them, but maybe he just saw it as hilarious - and terrifying - entertainment.

"I think it's quite obvious. This downturn is just the result of President Trump's misguided policies. We obviously did not learn from the Great Recession. Massive deregulation just leads to giant bubbles that people like Trump point to as 'strong and powerful economy', and the bubble bursts, then everyone's so surprised that stuff hit the fan. The powerful people in this country can't be trusted to keep things working well for everyone, rather than themselves and their cronies."

"Look, people, Mikey here is just being alarmist. We have fluctuations in our economy all the time.  Panic will just cause this fake downturn into a real one. We have the best stock market in the history of our country. Democratic bankers, probably a majority of them Jewish, have sabotaged the economy to stop my re-election, but that won't happen, folks, we will keep America great."


Justin turned off the TV. That was all he needed to hear to solidify his position that both of them were trash. He was writing himself in.

"Should've ran when I had the chance..."

Who won the 3rd Presidential Debate (among debate watchers)?
Mike Gravel: 54%
Donald Trump: 40%
Draw/Undecided: 6%

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (Oct. 15-Oct. 22)
17543.64 -6123.58 (-25.87%)

Fmr. Sen. Mike Gravel (D-AK)/Entrepreneur Andrew Yang (D-NY): 395 EV, 53%
President Donald Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 119 EV, 40%
Businessman Howard Schultz (I-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (I-MD): 0 EV, 2%
Fmr. LNC Vice Chair Arvin Vohra (L-MD)/Internet Personality Dan Behrman (L-TX): 0 EV, 1%
Green Party Co-Founder Howie Hawkins (G-NY)/Youngstown Board of Education Member Dario Hunter (G-OH): 0 EV, 0%
Mr. Jim Bennett (U-UT)/Fmr. SC Superintendent of Education Jim Rex (U-SC): 0 EV, 0%
Other/Undecided: 6%
GRAVEL +13

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

As panic set in, Trump seemed to get more and more desperate, blaming everyone for the economic crisis except for himself. Gravel and Yang jointly campaigned in several states, attacking Trump's lack of action in addressing the issues. Republican donors panicked as more and more Senate and House races turned against them, and many stopped donating out of fear of wasting their money. This led to a snowball effect and soon Republican candidates were running out of money left and right, causing their campaigns to suffer.

The only bright spot for Republicans was that the economic decline slowed, but this wasn't going to save them from the impending Gravelanche.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (Oct. 22-Oct. 29)
15500.31 -2043.33 (-11.65%)

Fmr. Sen. Mike Gravel (D-AK)/Entrepreneur Andrew Yang (D-NY): 395 EV, 53%
President Donald Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 119 EV, 40%
Businessman Howard Schultz (I-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (I-MD): 0 EV, 2%
Fmr. LNC Vice Chair Arvin Vohra (L-MD)/Internet Personality Dan Behrman (L-TX): 0 EV, 1%
Green Party Co-Founder Howie Hawkins (G-NY)/Youngstown Board of Education Member Dario Hunter (G-OH): 0 EV, 0%
Mr. Jim Bennett (U-UT)/Fmr. SC Superintendent of Education Jim Rex (U-SC): 0 EV, 0%
Other/Undecided: 6%
GRAVEL +13


NEXT UP: ELECTION DAY 2020

[Arson Plus]

How is Arkansas 2, Hunter's seat, and Vern Buchanan's and Ross Sprano's seats rated?

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

How is Arkansas 2, Hunter's seat, and Vern Buchanan's and Ross Sprano's seats rated?

AR-02: Tilt D
CA-50: Lean/Likely R
FL-15: Lean D
FL-16: Tossup


I'll have some of the key congressional races in the coverage.

[Transgender for Everybody]

Who's running against climbing Dan?

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

Who's running against climbing Dan?

Matt Newton, current Charlotte City Council Member, Former Committee Member of the Charlotte ACLU, and Former Chair of the Mecklenburg County Democratic Party. I actually am not entirely sure if he lives in the district (only part of his district is in NC-09) but if he isn't, just assume that he moved there.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

ELECTION NIGHT, PART 1

Good evening America, I'm Wolf Blitzer here in the CNN Election Center with Anderson Cooper, and this is Election Night 2020. It's 6 P.M. here on the east coast, and polls have just closed in parts of Indiana and Kentucky.

Let's take a look at some of the key races there.

Indiana Presidential: 1% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 50.4%
Gravel/Yang: 46.9%
Schultz/Delaney: 1.1%
Others: 1.6%

Kentucky Presidential: 1% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 57.8%
Gravel/Yang: 39.9%
Schultz/Delaney: 0.8%
Others: 1.5%

Far too early to call anything, but, we'll keep a close eye on some congressional races here as well. Indiana's 5th district is being heavily contested, as is the 2nd, and Kentucky's 6th district.


6:30 pm

Well, let's check back in to our results, as of now we can make a call: President Trump will carry Kentucky and its 8 electoral votes.

Kentucky Presidential: 16% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 58.3% ✓
Gravel/Yang: 39.3%
Schultz/Delaney: 1.0%
Others: 1.4%

Indiana Presidential: 20% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 51.2%
Gravel/Yang: 46.3%
Schultz/Delaney: 1.1%
Others: 1.4%

Current House Results:
Republican: 5
Democratic: 2
Too close to call: 4

As for the House, Democrats lead in 2 of the close races. Greg Goodnight, the Mayor of Kokomo, is currently leading Indiana Treasurer Kelly Mitchell for Indiana's 5th district. Just north in the 2nd, South Bend City Clerk Dawn Jones trails incumbent Rep. Jackie Walorski. In Kentucky's 6th district, Rep. Andy Barr trails Kentucky Transportation Secretary Jim Gray heavily. In a surprise twist we actually cannot call Kentucky's 5th district, which sees a close race between Fmr. Minority Leader of the KY House of Reps. Rocky Adkins and Rep. Hal Rogers, who has been in poor health recently.

We have a call to make in Indiana, current Governor Holcomb has won re-election.

Indiana Gubernatorial: 22% Reporting
Gov. Holcomb: 55.6% ✓
Fmr. State House Speaker Gregg: 42.3%
Others: 2.1%

In Kentucky, we're seeing an extremely close race so far, and Louisville is only barely reporting. This could be bad news for McConnell.

Kentucky Senatorial: 19% Reporting
Sen. McConnell: 51.2%
Ret. Marine McGrath: 47.0%
Others: 1.8%

Current house map. Solid districts have been called. Others are shaded based on the amount that one candidate is leading.

7 o'clock is right around the corner, and we'll be covering those poll closings right after the break.

[We Live in Black and White]

If I may paraphrase Doctor Who, I sense it coming in the air: the Oncoming Nut.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

ELECTION NIGHT, PART 2

It's 7:00 on the east coast now, meaning polls have closed in all of Indiana and Kentucky, as well as Virginia, Vermont, South Carolina, Georgia, and part of Florida.

Virginia Presidential: 2% Reporting
Gravel/Yang: 54.9%
Trump/Pence: 41.6%
Schultz/Delaney: 1.8%
Others: 1.7%

Vermont Presidential: 3% Reporting
Gravel/Yang: 65.8%✓
Trump/Pence: 32.3%
Schultz/Delaney: 0.5%
Others: 1.4%

Georgia Presidential: 1% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 50.3%
Gravel/Yang: 47.3%
Schultz/Delaney: 1.0%
Others: 1.4%

Florida Presidential: 1% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 49.9%
Gravel/Yang: 47.4%
Schultz/Delaney: 1.3%
Others: 1.4%

South Carolina Presidential: 1% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 53.8%
Gravel/Yang: 43.9%
Schultz/Delaney: 1.2%
Others: 1.1%


https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=wci

Democratic: 26
Republican: 22

We're actually going to call one of those close races now: Jim Gray has beaten Rep. Andy Barr in Kentucky's 6th district. About half of precincts are reporting now, and most of those that are out are in a mix of Lexington, Frankfort, and rural areas.

Kentucky's 6th District: 51% Reporting
KY Transportation Sec. Gray: 53.8%✓
Rep. Barr: 45.0%
Others: 1.2%

As for senate races, we can project that Mark Warner has won re-election handily over Jason Kessler, who organized the tragic Charlottesville Rally in 2017, and former Rep. Barbara Comstock. Downballot this has led to us calling Virginia's 10th district for Rep. Spanberger.

Virginia Senatorial Election
Sen. Warner: 60.8%✓
Mr. Kessler: 19.3%
Fmr. Rep. Comstock: 14.6%
Others: 5.3%

In South Carolina, Jaime Harrison trails Lindsey Graham by a few points, doing better than the Gravel/Yang ticket as of now, but not by much. Georgia's Senate Elections are far too close to call.

South Carolina Senatorial: 2% Reporting
Sen. Graham: 50.8%
Fmr. State Party Chair Harrison: 47.7%
Others: 1.5%

Georgia Senatorial: 2% Reporting
Sen. Perdue: 49.8%
Mayor Tomlinson: 49.0%
Others: 1.2%

Georgia Special Senatorial: 2% Reporting
Sen. Loeffler: 50.1%
Fmr. State Sen. Carter: 48.8%
Others: 1.1%

Finally, in Vermont, Lt. Governor Zuckerman leads incumbent Governor Scott narrowly


Vermont Gubernatorial: 4% Reporting
Lt. Gov. Zuckerman: 51.1%
Gov. Scott: 47.9%
Others: 1.0%


Before we go to commercial, we have an earlier call than expected: Gravel and Yang will carry Virginia. This state was solidly republican not too long ago, but now it's a Democratic stronghold.

Virginia Presidential: 5% Reporting
Gravel/Yang: 56.8%✓
Trump/Pence: 39.9%
Schultz/Delaney: 1.7%
Others: 1.6%

For those at home, that means Fmr. Senator Gravel and Andrew Yang have 16 Electoral votes, and President Trump and Vice President Pence are at 8. We'll be back after this break.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

It's 7:30 PM on the east coast now, meaning polls are closed in Ohio, North Carolina, and West Virginia. We can immediately call West Virginia for President Trump, and the Senate race for Senator Shelly Moore Capito. However, we can not call the gubernatorial race yet.

West Virginia Presidential: 1% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 60.8%✓
Gravel/Yang: 36.7%
Blankenship/Jore: 1.5%
Others: 1.0%

The Constitution Party ticket, consisting of coal magnate Don Blankenship and Fmr. MT State Rep. Rick Jore, is doing much better than expected. Schultz and Delaney are actually in 5th place behind the Vohra/Behrman ticket.


West Virginia Senatorial: 1% Reporting
Sen. Capito: 68.9%✓
Activist Swearengin: 29.8%
Others: 1.3%

West Virginia Gubernatorial: 1% Reporting
Gov. Justice: 55.3%
Fmr. State Sen. Ojeda: 43.8%
Others: 0.9%

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=wkv

Democratic: 37
Republican: 37

Republicans are starting to panic in a lot of areas. In Ohio, 2 seats based around Cleveland have yet to be called, though they heavily are leaning for Republicans. In North Carolina, Rep. Dan Bishop is behind State Rep. Rachel Hunt, the daughter of Former Governor Jim Hunt. Many believed that Matt Newton, a Charlotte City Councilman, would run, but after the new redistricting he was put deeply into the main Charlotte-based district. Rep. Mark Meadows is only narrowly ahead of Asheville Mayor Esther Manheimer. West Virginia's districts have all been called for Republicans.

North Carolina Gubernatorial: 3% Reporting
Gov. Cooper: 52.8%
Lt. Gov. Forest: 46.2%
Others: 1.0%

North Carolina Senatorial: 3% Reporting
Fmr. State Sen. Cunningham: 50.1%
Sen. Tillis: 48.8%
Others: 1.1%

North Carolina Presidential: 3% Reporting
Gravel/Yang: 49.8%
Trump/Pence: 47.7%
Schultz/Delaney: 1.3%
Others: 1.2%

Ohio Presidential: 3% Reporting
Gravel/Yang: 48.9%
Trump/Pence: 48.8%
Schultz/Delaney: 0.8%
Others: 1.5%

So far a lot of these states are closer than expected, though many urban areas are likely to be slow to report, so these current numbers may be low for Democrats.


7:50

Well, we're getting ready for the 8 PM poll closings, but we have a few calls.

First, in the House, VA-07 and 02 will stay in Democratic hands. VA-09 and 01 remain too close to call. Shockingly, Rocky Adkins has pulled ahead in Kentucky's 5th. Elliott County, Adkins' home county, has yet to report, which may push him over the top.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=wmu
Democratic: 39
Republican: 37

Indiana is very close for comfort, we still can't call it with nearly 70% in. However, most of the area that's left is rural, so Trump may carry this state more convincingly than what it seems like now. We can call West Virginia's Gubernatorial race for Governor Justice.

Indiana Presidential: 68% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 50.2%
Gravel/Yang: 47.2%
Schultz/Delaney: 1.2%
Others: 1.4%

West Virginia Gubernatorial: 24% Reporting
Gov. Justice: 58.1%✓
Fmr. State Sen. Ojeda: 41.1%
Others: 0.8%

[BigVic]

It's a Dem landslide and it's beautiful

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

ELECTION NIGHT PART 4

It's 8 o'clock here on the east coast, so we have a slew of poll closings. Let's start by taking a look at the house.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=wu4

Democratic: 113
Republican: 91

Quite a few calls that Democrats will like here: In Indiana's 5th district, Fmr. Mayor Greg Goodnight will win the district. In an extremely early call Joe Cunningham of South Carolina's 1st district has won re-election. Democrats are currently ahead in several seats in Texas... Democrats lead in all house races in New England.

We're also going to make some calls in the Presidential race...

Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Missouri have been called for President Trump.Illinois, Maryland, the District of Columbia, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Maine's 1st Congressional District, and Maine At-Large have been called for Gravel. That puts Former Senator Gravel at 95 Electoral Votes, and President Trump at 56. Currently, 179 electoral votes are too close to call.

In the Senate, Democrats have pulled ahead in both races in Georgia, and we can call these races:

Mississippi and Oklahoma stay in Republican hands. Delaware, Rhode Island, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New Hampshire have been called for Democrats. We can also project that Governor Carney has won re-election in Delaware.

So, things are looking good for Democrats. The areas of Indiana and Kentucky that closed at 6 are almost done counting. We still can't call Indiana's 2nd, or Kentucky's 5th.

Indiana 2nd Congressional: 92% Reporting
South Bend City Clerk Jones: 49.8%
Rep. Walorski: 49.6%
Others: 0.6%

Kentucky 5th Congressional: 97% Reporting
Rep. Rogers: 49.49%
Fmr. KY State House Minority Leader Adkins: 49.45%
Others: 1.06%

8:15 PM
hold on, we have a few house races to call:
South Bend City Clerk Dawn Jones takes Indiana's 2nd congressional district, 50.2 to 49.5 over Rep. Walorski. In a shocking upset, Fmr. KY State House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins has surged ahead to beat Rep. Hal Rogers 49.8-49.1. The last few precincts were mainly concentrated in Adkins' home county of Elliott, which went for him heavily. In North Carolina's 9th, State Rep. Rachel Hunt has handily defeated Rep. Dan Bishop, with 55% of precincts reporting she's ahead 52.4-46.7, and Mecklenburg isn't reporting much yet.

However, in a slight bright spot for Republicans, although not exactly a big one, President Trump will win Indiana, 48.8 percent to Gravel's 48.6 and Schultz's 1.2, with others taking 1.6 percent of the vote.

That brings President Trump to 67 electoral votes, with 95 electoral votes for Gravel.

And in the senate, we have 33 Republicans, 3 of which have been re-elected tonight, and 38 Democrats, 7 of which have been re-elected tonight. Both Independents caucus with the Democrats, bringing them to 40.

We have more poll closings coming up, so we'll be right back after this message.

[Transgender for Everybody]

Someone give me an orchiectomy because I can't handle all these nuts.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

ELECTION NIGHT PART 5

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=119o

A small update here, with Arkansas polls closing, we can call 3 of their congressional districts for Republicans, as well as the Senate race. In Arkansas' 2nd district, it's a close race between Rep. French Hill and Former Little Rock Mayor Mark Stodola.

Some other calls: both Mike Gravel and Gary Peters will win in Michigan, Gravel by a margin of 52.4 percent to Trump's 45.7, Schultz's 0.8 percent, and 1.1 percent for others. Peters has won by a margin of 52.1 percent to 46.9 against John James, with minor candidates taking one percent of the vote. Fmr. Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty has won against Taylor Swift, in a race where it seems like partisanship has won out over name recognition. The vote there is still closer than what it normally would look like, 53.9 to 45.3.


9:00 PM

We have a huge batch of poll closings now, it's 9 PM on the East Coast, and middle America, and New York, are closing right now. We're calling several safe congressional races...

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=13bb

Making a big call here: Democrats will win the House of Representatives. We have 163 races called for them, but including races where they're ahead, they nearly have a majority, and the west coast isn't in yet.

In the Senate, we also have a number of calls:

In Louisiana, Senator Cassidy will easily win re-election over Mitch Landrieu. Senator Sasse of Nebraska will also win re-election. Senator Rounds of South Dakota will win re-election as well. Liz Cheney will win the election in Wyoming easily. In Colorado, we can call the race almost immediately for John Hickenlooper. With 7% in, he leads 63-35, with 2% going to other candidates. In Minnesota, Tina Smith will win re-election by a wide margin, 56-42. In New Mexico, Ben Ray Lujan has won election by a good margin as well. However, our biggest call is from Kentucky. With 99% of precincts reporting...

Kentucky Senatorial: 99% Reporting
Ret. Marine McGrath: 49.15%
Senator McConnell: 48.97%
Other: 1.88%

Only a few precincts are left, and McGrath leads, though only bare- wait, hold on, we got the last one here:

Kentucky Senatorial: 100% Reporting
Ret. Marine McGrath: 49.19% ✓
Senator McConnell: 48.92%
Other: 1.89%

It looks like Mitch McConnell has lost re-election. We will have to wait for a recount on this one, but as for tonight, we will call this race for McGrath.

Let's see some other close races...


South Carolina Senatorial: 85% Reporting
Fmr. SC Dem Party Chair Harrison : 49.6%
Senator Graham: 49.1%
Other: 1.3%

Not good for Senator Graham, but most of the heavily democratic black belt has already come in. Many of the remaining precincts are concentrated in Greenville, an increasingly swingy area, as evidenced by the fact we can't call the 4th district there just yet.

Georgia Senatorial: 81% Reporting
Mayor Tomlinson: 49.4%
Senator Perdue: 49.2%
Other: 1.4%

Georgia Senatorial Special: 81% Reporting
Fmr. State Sen. Carter: 49.3%
Senator Loeffler: 49.1%
Other: 1.6%

Alabama Senatorial: 73% Reporting
Senator Jones: 42.7%
Fmr. Senator Sessions: 41.9%
AL Chief Justice Parker: 13.0%
Other: 2.4%

Texas Senatorial: 18% Reporting
Ret. Air Force Major Hegar: 49.2%
Senator Cornyn: 49.1%
Other: 1.7%

North Carolina Senatorial: 73% Reporting
Fmr. State Sen. Cunningham: 49.9%
Senator Tillis: 48.8%
Other: 1.3%

Kansas Senatorial: 33% Reporting
State Sen. Bollier: 51.3%
Fmr. State SOS Kobach: 47.2%
Other: 1.5%

Maine Senatorial: 51% Reporting
State House Speaker Gideon: 50.8%
Sen. Collins: 47.2%
Other: 2.0%

Arizona Senatorial: 7% Reporting
Astronaut Kelly: 54.8%
Sen. McSally: 43.4%
Other: 1.8%

That'll bring Democrats to 43 seats, 45 if you include the two caucusing independents, and Republicans to 37 seats. Democrats have already picked up two seats, although Kentucky is likely to be in contention for the coming days...

With governors races, Governor Burgum of North Dakota will win re-election.In North Carolina, Governor Cooper will win by a decent margin, with 74% of precincts reporting, he has 52.1 percent to Lt. Governor Forest's 46.2. In Vermont, Lt. Governor Zuckerman will narrowly defeat Phil Scott. With 90% in, he leads 51.3 to 47.4.

And with us calling some safe states in the presidential election, we have 164 electoral votes for Mike Gravel, 100 for Donald Trump, 168 that are too close to call, and 106 that haven't closed their polls.

The nationwide popular vote is currently breaking down as follows: Gravel/Yang with 53.3 percent, Trump/Pence with 43.5 percent, Schultz/Delaney at 1.5 percent, Vohra/Behrman at 0.8 percent, Hawkins/Hunter at 0.4 percent, Blankenship/Jore at 0.2 percent, and other third parties and write-ins at 0.3 percent.