The Gravelanche

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

THE GRAVELANCHE
A somewhat meme-y TL

July 10, 2019

Hickenlooper: https://www.kktv.com/content/news/512120362.html / Source: Jack Dempsey / U.S. Department of Energy Solar Decathlon via MGN
Template: https://breakyourownnews.com/

Template: http://www.prankmenot.com/?twitter_tweet
Gravel Pic: https://reason.com/2019/07/12/mike-gravel-and-his-online-teens-want-weed-in-the-constitution/

[UnselfconsciousTeff]

Ok this is epic

[brucejoel99]

PRESIDENT GRAVEL INCOMING!!!

[Ilhan Apologist]

Damn, I thought I was on the 2020 board and I was hopeful.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

SECOND DEMOCRATIC DEBATE LINEUP:

NIGHT 1
WILLIAMSON - RYAN - KLOBUCHAR - BUTTIGIEG - HARRIS - WARREN - O'ROURKE - GABBARD -  BENNET - BULLOCK

NIGHT 2
GRAVEL - DELANEY - GILLIBRAND - BOOKER - BIDEN - SANDERS - YANG - CASTRO - INSLEE - DE BLASIO

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

NIGHT ONE HIGHLIGHTS

Beto makes Spanish slip-up in opening statement
[Opening Statements]
O'Rourke: America is becoming a shell of its former self. El presidente Trump está destrozando familias en la frontera. Esto es lo que Estados Unidos debería ser. Deberíamos trabajar para asegurarnos de que Estados Unidos siga siendo el faro brillante de la libertad que alguna vez fue.

(English Translation: President Trump is tearing apart families at the border. This is what America should be about. We should be working to ensure that America continues to be the shining beacon of freedom that it once was.) [It's obvious Beto meant to say that this is not what America should be about, but his slip up still was bad.]

Marianne Williamson tries to defend Reparations, just sounds weird instead.

Tapper: The next question is to Mrs. Williamson. You have laid out a plan for slavery Reparations. Many voters and other candidates have found the idea to not be a good one. What do you say to those people?

Williamson: Well first off, it's not a plan. I see it as a way of spreading the American Dream and Love to those who have been looked down upon in this system for so many years. I am glad that other candidates are seeing the light on this issue, and that perhaps we can help undo the wrongdoing.

Warren launches surprise (and somewhat out-of-character) attack against Harris, Harris ends up sounding cold.

Lemon: The next question is for Senator Harris. There has been a lot of controversy over your time as a prosecutor and Attorney General of California, especially over a statement where your office appeared to support keeping people in overcrowded prisons because letting them be on parole would be losing cheap labor. Do you believe in what you did before or have you changed your views?

Harris: Well, first off, that statement was saying that we would be unable to pay these people to fight the fires ravaging the state, and the fires would burn out of control as a result. Sure, we paid them less than what we paid firefighters, but they-

Warren: You paid them two dollars an hour, Senator.

Harris: Hold on, let me-

Warren: You paid them two dollars an hour doing some of the hardest and most dangerous work in the country. Instead of working to get these people who could be eligible for parole to become good, productive members of society, you worked to keep them in overcrowded conditions so that you wouldn't be at an inconvenience.

Harris: Well Senator, it's a matter of choosing what is right, and I believe that not letting my state burn to the ground is right.

Warren: I'm sure that the people getting paid next to nothing feel the same way, Senator.
*Cheers*


This night was overall very uneventful except for the exchange between Warren and Harris, which was surprising considering Warren was seen as unlikely to attack anyone in a significant matter. Beto's slip up didn't hurt him too much, but it was still joked about afterwards to his expense.

Poll: Who won the Debate?
Elizabeth Warren: 53%
Pete Buttigieg: 13%
Kamala Harris: 7%
Tulsi Gabbard: 6%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Steve Bullock: 2%
Marianne Williamson: 2%
All others 1% or less
Don't Know: 12%

Pre-Second Night polling (+ and - based on the RCP average before the debate)
Joe Biden: 25% (-3)
Elizabeth Warren: 18% (+3)
Bernie Sanders: 15% (-2)
Kamala Harris: 9% (-4)
Pete Buttigieg: 6% (+1)
Cory Booker: 2% (+/- 0)
Andrew Yang: 2% (+/- 0)
Tulsi Gabbard: 2% (+1)
Beto O'Rourke: 1% (-1)
Amy Klobuchar: 1% (+/- 0)
Steve Bullock: 1% (+/- 0)
Bill de Blasio: 1% (+/- 0)
Marianne Williamson: 1% (+1)
Everyone else below 1%
Unsure: 17% (+4)

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

I honestly don't know what happened with Delaney. He's not in my lineups despite me having 20 people total there. I made sure Hickenlooper and Swalwell aren't in there. I mean, he may as well not be there, but it's still weird that I somehow left him out without messing something up in the # of people there.

EDIT: Just realized I put Bennet in twice. Delaney is right next to Gravel.

[Transgender for Everybody]

Esto es lo que Estados Unidos debería ser.
(English Translation: This is what America should be about.) [It's obvious Beto meant to say that this is not what America should be about.]

If you were able, would you go change the past
To mend a pro-fa with one last chance?

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Williamson/Gravel is the ticket America deserves.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

NIGHT TWO


Most pundits agree that the entire night was an endless onslaught for Biden. Possibly the biggest surprise to the general public, but not to some political junkies, was Gravel's hard hit on Biden.

Tapper: Our next question is for Vice President Biden. You have been attacked very hard for your vote on the Iraq War. What exactly do you have to say about this criticism?

Biden: Well, with the evidence we had at the time, I thought it was a path forward to peace, to a better Iraq, and-

Gravel: Oh Joe, you know it wasn't about that. You know that you just did the bidding of the special interests, of the Military Industrial Complex, who just wanted to profit off of our men dying. During my time in the Senate I saw the exact same things play out in Vietnam. We need to get the hell out of these places before our actions spawn more and more groups like ISIS. They came to be because we had gone in and killed so many people, and some radicals say, "hey, we don't like these guys that just killed so many of your people, join us." If we had never gone into Iraq in the first place then the whole issue with ISIS would never have happened.

Your vote not only caused hundreds of soldiers to die in vain, but it created the conditions for these people to rise up and take even more innocent lives, and you should be ashamed of yourself!

*Cheers and Applause*



Other highlights included Julian Castro attacking Biden on the issue of immigration, Jay Inslee making a spirited speech on the issues of fracking and offshore drilling, ones Biden had been very fuzzy on. de Blasio said Biden was "far behind his time, and doesn't represent what our party should be."

Gravel also managed to get a word in against Booker, calling him "A mindless puppet of the Pharmaceutical industry, which fights against the idea that Healthcare is a right, and also orchestrated our terrible opioid epidemic that takes so many lives."

Gravel also made an attack on Delaney, mainly attacking his decision to continue taking money from Fossil Fuel companies and his lack of support for student debt relief.

Yang spoke passionately on UBI, though he didn't make much of an impact.

Everyone else was relatively unable to make an impact. Bernie was oddly quiet.

Tom Steyer bought a lot of adspace, making him essentially a 11th debater. He saw a bump mostly from former Biden supporters.

Overall, Gravel made quite a big impact, corresponding with a surprisingly large surge in the polls. It was an absolute disaster for Biden to get beaten up by several smaller candidates, and he dipped to second for the first time.

Who won the Debate?
Mike Gravel: 48%
Julian Castro: 13%
Jay Inslee: 11%
Bernie Sanders: 6%
Bill de Blasio: 6%
Joe Biden: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Others at 1% or less (3% of total)
Undecided: 9%

Post-Second Night polling
Elizabeth Warren: 18% (+/- 0)
Joe Biden: 17% (-8)
Bernie Sanders: 13% (-2)
Pete Buttigieg: 8% (+2)
Kamala Harris: 7% (-1)
Mike Gravel: 5% (+5)
Andrew Yang: 2% (+/- 0)
Tulsi Gabbard: 2% (+/- 0)
Tom Steyer: 2% (+2)
Julian Castro: 1% (+1)
Bill de Blasio: 1% (+/- 0)
Cory Booker: 1% (-1)
Beto O'Rourke: 1% (-1)
Amy Klobuchar: 1% (+/- 0)
Steve Bullock: 1% (+/- 0)
Jay Inslee: 1% (+1)
Marianne Williamson: 0% (-1)
Everyone else below 1%
Unsure: 20% (+3)



BTW all future debate performances are mostly going to be summarized with some detailed parts, more like this post than last one.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

August 1st: John Delaney and Seth Moulton drop out.

August 2nd: Mike Gravel donation tracker shows big spike in donations, hitting 90,000 on the 2nd.

August 3rd: Julian Castro gets a 4th poll at 2%, qualifying him for the September debates.

August 4th: Booker campaign announces they have hit 130,000 donors, qualifying him for the debates.

August 7th: Yang qualifies for the debates with a 4th poll at 2%.

August 10th: Gravel and Steyer both get their 4th qualifying poll. Gravel stands at about 115,000 donors and Steyer around 90,000.

August 11th: Gravel campaign launches new ad attacking Harris on her record as AG of California. The ad goes viral and Gravel gets to 130,000 donors, making him the 10th candidate to qualify.

August 12th: Wayne Messam drops out of the race.

August 14th: Klobuchar hits 130,000 donors, qualifying her for the debate. Gabbard gets her 4th qualifying poll.

August 15th: Tom Steyer hits 130,000 donors and qualifies for the debate.

August 17th: Marianne Williamson drops out of the race and endorses Gravel.

August 18th: Gabbard hits 130,000 donors and qualifies for the debate.

August 20th: Tim Ryan drops out of the race after saying "I honestly don't care about illegals"

August 26th: Jay Inslee announces that he will attempt to organize an unsanctioned climate change debate.

August 28th: Jay Inslee hits 130,000 donors at 5 PM, about the same time a 4th qualifying poll comes out for him, making him the 14th (and last) candidate to qualify.

End of August averages
Joe Biden: 18% (+1)
Elizabeth Warren: 17% (-1)
Bernie Sanders: 13% (+/- 0)
Pete Buttigieg: 8% (+/- 0)
Mike Gravel: 6% (+1)
Kamala Harris: 6% (-1)
Tom Steyer: 4% (+2)
Andrew Yang: 2% (+/- 0)
Tulsi Gabbard: 2% (+/- 0)
Julian Castro: 2% (+1)
Jay Inslee: 2% (+1)
Bill de Blasio: 1% (+/- 0)
Cory Booker: 1% (+/- 0)
Beto O'Rourke: 1% (+/- 0)
Amy Klobuchar: 1% (+/- 0)
Steve Bullock: 1% (+/- 0)
Everyone else below 1% (about -3 from dropouts)
Unsure: 20% (+1) [I screwed up the calculation last time]

[Arson Plus]

I have an idea about somebody trying to attack Gravel for supporting the fillibuster and taking money from oil executives and voting for Russell Long/Robert Byrd instead of voting for Ted Kennedy.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

THE THIRD DEBATE LINEUP

NIGHT 1

INSLEE-STEYER-HARRIS-BIDEN-GRAVEL-GABBARD-KLOBUCHAR

NIGHT 2
O'ROURKE-YANG-SANDERS-WARREN-BUTTIGIEG-CASTRO-BOOKER

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Sorry, but Getty Images, even used by other sides, are not acceptable per Dave's ruling.

Images removed w/o infraction.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

THE THIRD DEBATE
Night One

-Steyer opens with a call to impeach Donald Trump immediately

-Gabbard attacks Biden on Foreign Policy, Gravel backs her up

Gravel attacks Harris on her record as AG

Brazile: The next question is for Senator Harris. Many candidates have attacked you on your record as Attorney General of California, with some calling you "Kamala the Cop", and saying you were backward on criminal justice. What do you have to say about that.

Harris: Well, I think it's extremely important to point out the progressive achievements I made while I was Attorney General. I expanded the Back on Track program to put former criminals to work and on the path to becoming good members of society. I helped expand training to reduce racial bias in the police force. We were the first statewide Justice department to require body cameras. I also-

Gravel: Hold on Kamala, hold on. I get that you did all these great things, but your record is extremely contradictory. As Senator Warren pointed out before, your office fought to keep people in overcrowded conditions to work for as little as 2 dollars an hour. Your office argued against a good man named Daniel Larsen, who was proved innocent, but you argued that he filed his petition too late. Luckily, the courts ruled against you, but it doesn't change the fact that you fought for the exact opposite of justice, Senator! How can we trust you to manage our country if you try to keep innocent people in prison?!

*cheers*

Harris: Well-

*cheers continuing*

Harris: Well, Senator, those were not my own decisions. Those were people in my office, yes, but they did not contact me for approval because they weren't required to.

Gravel: You easily could have changed that policy, Senator. You could have done the right thing here and fired these people, or fought to change the policy, but instead, you did nothing. You are completely at fault for not doing anything.

Brazile: Alright, let's move on, the next question is for Mr. Steyer...


-Gravel calls Klobuchar an idiot for opposing free college, she lashes out, calling him a radical socialist, Gravel responds by saying "Hey Amy, tone it down a little bit, I'm not one of your staffers." She looks extremely angry before quickly calming down.

-Biden blanks in closing statement
"Well, I believe now is the time for our leadership to finally care about the normal people of America. From Scanton to Seattle, from Dover to Dallas, and especially in the community of... uh... *unintelligible mumble* in Michigan, where they still can't get clean water, which is an absolute disgrace in our country. I hope that I can fix these issues as President and that you all can join me in making our country better."

Biden's mic was left on by accident, and could be heard saying "Flint! that was it, Flint" as the moderators were closing.

Inslee disappointed in this debate, barely being able to get a word in.

Who won the debate?
Gravel: 45%
Steyer: 19%
Gabbard: 12%
Biden: 8%
Harris: 5%
Don't Know: 11%

Post 1st night percentages
Joe Biden: 16% (-2)
Elizabeth Warren: 16% (-1)
Bernie Sanders: 14% (+1)
Mike Gravel: 10% (+4)
Pete Buttigieg: 8% (+/- 0)
Tom Steyer: 6% (+2)
Kamala Harris: 4% (-3)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3% (+1)
Andrew Yang: 2% (+/- 0)
Julian Castro: 2% (+/- 0)
Jay Inslee: 1% (-1)
Bill de Blasio: 1% (+/- 0)
Cory Booker: 1% (+/- 0)
Beto O'Rourke: 1% (+/- 0)
Amy Klobuchar: 0% (-1)
Steve Bullock: 0% (-1)
Everyone else below 1%
Unsure: 21% (+1)

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

any thoughts, anyone?

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

THE THIRD DEBATE
NIGHT TWO

-Yang defends UBI with how it improves lives of lower-class people in several ways, then says "The trickle-up idea that has been around since Reagan is wrong and antiquated, we need a new system of humane capitalism that focuses on those who need help, rather than those at the top. The video goes viral over the next few days and Yang is believed to have defended the idea much more effectively than in the second debate.

-Warren and Castro "nerd out" over immigration and what needs to be changed. Both seem to build up goodwill among themselves despite minor disagreements.

-Sanders throws shade at Booker by saying "We could easily have cheaper prescription drugs by importing them from places like Canada, but some Senators that were bought out by Big Pharma voted against it, even some Democrats.

-Buttigieg says that coastal infrastructure to protect against stronger storms is badly needed, giving the issue a good bit of attention, especially since a hurricane devastated Port Arthur, Texas the day before the debate.

-O'Rourke says "Bold solutions are needed", Castro replies with "Let me be honest, your plans are probably the least bold of anyone on stage." This effectively ends Beto's campaign.

WHO WON THE DEBATE?
Castro: 22%
Yang: 20%
Sanders: 19%
Warren: 17%
Buttigieg: 10%
Undecided: 12%

Post 3rd Debate percentages
Elizabeth Warren: 16% (+/- 0)
Bernie Sanders: 16% (+2)
Joe Biden: 15% (-1)
Mike Gravel: 10% (+/- 0)
Pete Buttigieg: 9% (+1)
Tom Steyer: 6% (+/- 0)
Andrew Yang: 4% (+2)
Julian Castro: 4% (+2)
Kamala Harris: 3% (-1)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3% (+/- 0)
Jay Inslee: 0% (-1)
Bill de Blasio: 0% (-1)
Cory Booker: 0% (-1)
Beto O'Rourke: 0% (-1)
Everyone else below 1%
Unsure: 20% (-1)




4TH DEBATE REQUIREMENTS: GET 3% OR MORE IN 8 NATIONAL POLLS OR POLLS IN THE FIRST 4 PRIMARY STATES, GET 200,000 UNIQUE DONORS

[Canis]

Beautiful

[voice_of_resistance]

this is awesome, can't wait for the primary state polling!

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

Update.

[beesley]

This is gut wrenching. A well made timeline though - nothing wrong with it - just Mike Gravel, that's all.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

ok so since they announced the 4th debate qualifications will be the same as the third I'll also be doing that. Expect an update either today or tomorrow

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

Sept 14: Bill de Blasio drops out of the race. He doesn't endorse anyone yet.

Sept 15: Steve Bullock drops out of the race and announces a senate run.

Sept 18: Stacy Abrams announces she will run for governor in 2022, saying that "I need to correct the injustices wrought upon Georgians by our current, illegitimate governor, and can't distract myself with a run for president." She declines to endorse anyone.
 
Sept 20: Joe Sestak drops out of the race. He endorses Joe Biden.

Sept 21: Michael Bennet drops out of the race. He endorses Joe Biden.

Sept 30: The deadline for the fourth debate. Kirsten Gillibrand drops out after missing the polling threshold. She endorses Elizabeth Warren.

Oct 8: 1st night of the debate
Oct 9: 2nd night of the debate

Polling before the 4th debate:
Elizabeth Warren: 17% (+1)
Joe Biden: 16% (+1)
Bernie Sanders: 16% (+/- 0)
Mike Gravel: 11% (+1)
Pete Buttigieg: 8% (-1)
Tom Steyer: 6% (+/- 0)
Andrew Yang: 4% (+/- 0)
Julian Castro: 4% (+/- 0)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3% (+/- 0)
Kamala Harris: 2% (-1)
Jay Inslee: 1% (+1)
Cory Booker: 0% (+/- 0)
Beto O'Rourke: 0% (+/- 0)
Amy Klobuchar: 0% (+/- 0)
Unsure: 20% (+/- 0)

Dropouts subtract 2%. No other candidates are polled.

Night 1
O'Rourke - Harris - Gravel - Biden - Warren - Yang - Booker

Night 2
Klobuchar - Gabbard - Steyer - Sanders - Buttigieg - Castro - Inslee

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

NIGHT 1

Biden opens by apologizing to the people of Flint for his slip-up in his closing statement, saying "What is honestly a shame is that there are so many places having these same issues that it's hard to get them straight."

Gravel opens by saying that he has "some of the best grassroots support of anyone in this race. I got into the second round of debates with many donations that were less than 5 dollars, and what we need is a movement like that, funded by people, not corporations, that's how we beat Donald Trump."

-O'Rourke speaks passionately on gun control, focusing on the El Paso shooting that is still on many minds.

-Yang connects almost all questions he is asked back to UBI.

-Gravel attacks Biden on his gaffe from the last debate, saying "If you can't even remember the name of a city that made headlines nationwide and is still having problems, why should the American people even consider you for president?"

Who won the 1st night Debate?
Gravel: 38%
Biden: 18%
O'Rourke: 11%
Yang: 9%
Warren: 7%
Harris: 3%
Booker: 2%
Undecided: 12%

Polling after night 1:
Elizabeth Warren: 16% (-1)
Bernie Sanders: 15% (-1)
Joe Biden: 15% (-1)
Mike Gravel: 13% (+2)
Pete Buttigieg: 8% (+/- 0)
Tom Steyer: 7% (+1)
Andrew Yang: 4% (+/- 0)
Julian Castro: 4% (+/- 0)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3% (+/- 0)
Kamala Harris: 1% (-1)
Jay Inslee: 1% (+1)
Beto O'Rourke: 1% (+1)
Cory Booker: 0% (+/- 0)
Amy Klobuchar: 0% (+/- 0)
Unsure: 19% (-1)

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

Night Two

-Bernie hits Steyer

Steyer: ...it's honestly a disgrace to our democracy that we've gotten to this point! Now we shouldn't demonize wealthy people, but we should say-

Bernie: Let me just cut in here, Tom. You are the Democrat with the highest net wealth running for President. I just gotta say, it sounds like you have a bit of a conflict there, and that maybe America shouldn't be listening to billionaires say that we shouldn't call them out, because we should!

*applause*

-Gabbard says most people on stage support open borders, she supports the law. Castro responds with "You sound like you're running for the Republican nomination, Tulsi. We support the law, but we also support the right for people to seek refuge!"

Sadly, this debate was mostly uneventful, with most skirmishes being the same as in previous ones, and this time with no clear winner in most. The two above were exceptions.

Who won the debate?
Sanders: 40%
Castro: 35%
Steyer: 8%
Buttigieg: 5%
Gabbard: 2%
Unsure: 10%

Bernie Sanders: 17% (+2)
Elizabeth Warren: 16% (+/- 0)
Joe Biden: 16% (+1)
Mike Gravel: 13% (+/- 0)
Pete Buttigieg: 8% (+/- 0)
Tom Steyer: 7% (+/- 0)
Andrew Yang: 4% (+/- 0)
Julian Castro: 4% (+/- 0)
Tulsi Gabbard: 2% (-1)
Kamala Harris: 1% (+/- 0)
Beto O'Rourke: 1% (+/- 0)
Jay Inslee: 0% (-1)
Cory Booker: 0% (+/- 0)
Amy Klobuchar: 0% (+/- 0)
Unsure: 18% (-1)