GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[QAnonKelly]

FWIW I think they did $1 million in TV ads in Texas.

It actually appears that republican voters against trump seems to be doing a lot more in terms of grassroots content.

I listen to Hacks on Tap and Mike Murphy, who runs RVAT, is super knowledgeable about the ground game. I think his focus is south Florida.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm very curious to see the county map for this race. It's gonna be weird. Right now, I have Warnock winning the counties in red (Abrams '18, Fayette, the expanded black belt, and a few smaller metros.) That said, I have absolutely no idea how the blue counties are going to go except for some vague sense Collins will overperform in his Northeast Georgia district and Loeffler might do best in the rest of the Atlanta exurbs. South Georgia is a big question mark so far as I'm concerned. What are your thoughts?

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/1321619835403538432?s=21

[Mr. Smith]

Trump wasn't familiar with The Proud Boys too.

[KaiserDave]

What a pathetic person

[QAnonKelly]

https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/1321619835403538432?s=21

The Pope isn't Catholic either.

[new_patomic]

The speed at which she's debased herself just to reach the runoff is amazing.

She was supposed to the safer choice who could still appeal to suburban women.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Jim Oberweis and Carly Fiorina start to look good next to Loeffler.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/1321619835403538432?s=21

Wow. By giving a non-answer, she's managed to reframe the election so she looks even worse!

If she's not careful, Warnock could turn the whole 'family values' card against her in the runoff, if this continues.

[DaleCooper]

A Warnock vs Loeffler runoff would be the 2020 equivalent of Jones vs Moore.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

A Warnock vs Loeffler runoff would be the 2020 equivalent of Jones vs Moore.

Probably more like Kander vs Blunt tbh, though with Warnock winning because Georgia is much less Republican than Missouri is. Warnock will not overperform by Jones vs Moore levels.

[DaleCooper]

A Warnock vs Loeffler runoff would be the 2020 equivalent of Jones vs Moore.

Probably more like Kander vs Blunt tbh, though with Warnock winning because Georgia is much less Republican than Missouri is. Warnock will not overperform by Jones vs Moore levels.

I wasn't referring to the context of the states themselves. I meant more that it's a relatively unexceptional Democratic candidate vs someone that encapsulates the absolute worst of the Republican Party. 

[wbrocks67]

A Warnock vs Loeffler runoff would be the 2020 equivalent of Jones vs Moore.

Probably more like Kander vs Blunt tbh, though with Warnock winning because Georgia is much less Republican than Missouri is. Warnock will not overperform by Jones vs Moore levels.

I wasn't referring to the context of the states themselves. I meant more that it's a relatively unexceptional Democratic candidate vs someone that encapsulates the absolute worst of the Republican Party. 

The recent favorability ratings seem to counter that. If anything, Warnock seems like the perfect candidate for this moment in time in GA.

[Oryxslayer]

A Warnock vs Loeffler runoff would be the 2020 equivalent of Jones vs Moore.

Probably more like Kander vs Blunt tbh, though with Warnock winning because Georgia is much less Republican than Missouri is. Warnock will not overperform by Jones vs Moore levels.

I wasn't referring to the context of the states themselves. I meant more that it's a relatively unexceptional Democratic candidate vs someone that encapsulates the absolute worst of the Republican Party. 

The recent favorability ratings seem to counter that. If anything, Warnock seems like the perfect candidate for this moment in time in GA.

The big question though is how much of his favorability score is thanks to the trajectory of the race. Remember Warnock was unknown by the electorate two months ago. His quick movement from third to a dominating first place has strategically insulated his campaign from the type of negative ad bombardment that all the competitive candidates are throwing at each other. Now of course this all does matter, there is now less time to define the candidate in a runoff situation and Warnock has 'free' air time to build a message now, but some of his approvers may be voters who just haven't 'met' Warnock as a partisan candidate.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm very curious to see the county map for this race. It's gonna be weird. Right now, I have Warnock winning the counties in red (Abrams '18, Fayette, the expanded black belt, and a few smaller metros.) That said, I have absolutely no idea how the blue counties are going to go except for some vague sense Collins will overperform in his Northeast Georgia district and Loeffler might do best in the rest of the Atlanta exurbs. South Georgia is a big question mark so far as I'm concerned. What are your thoughts?

The best analogy right now is the 2019 Louisiana Governors race. Warnock is somewhere between 40 and 50 percent, and his Republican opposition is dueling in the 20s. This absolutely means that Warnock will carry a ton of Republican counties in the first round on pluralities thanks to favorable vote splits. Now I'm not sure where Warnock will see more plurality victories, but he will get it. One point of view suggests that the northern subrubs and exurbs are moving towards the Dems so there are enough Blue voters to see Warnock sneak through on 38% pluralities. The other line of thought sees all the 40% AA counties that vote red in the south of the state and expects them to flip because of vote splits.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/10/12/us/elections/results-louisiana-governor-primary-election.html

[Sir Mohamed]

You guys hold Loeffler to higher standards than you should be. Anyone claiming she was picked because of her qualifications is kidding themselves.

[Ritz]

What in god's name is going on in the 538 model?

[Stuart98]

Oh wow, I was wondering why they were giving Warnock a <1% chance of avoiding a runoff when you'd think it'd be more like ~10% at this point. WTF are they doing indeed.

[Calthrina950]

You guys hold Loeffler to higher standards than you should be. Anyone claiming she was picked because of her qualifications is kidding themselves.

I agree. Wasn't she chosen because she was a donor and/or a personal friend of Governor Kemp's? Loeffler, like Trump, never held any political office prior to this one.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm very curious to see the county map for this race. It's gonna be weird. Right now, I have Warnock winning the counties in red (Abrams '18, Fayette, the expanded black belt, and a few smaller metros.) That said, I have absolutely no idea how the blue counties are going to go except for some vague sense Collins will overperform in his Northeast Georgia district and Loeffler might do best in the rest of the Atlanta exurbs. South Georgia is a big question mark so far as I'm concerned. What are your thoughts?

The best analogy right now is the 2019 Louisiana Governors race. Warnock is somewhere between 40 and 50 percent, and his Republican opposition is dueling in the 20s. This absolutely means that Warnock will carry a ton of Republican counties in the first round on pluralities thanks to favorable vote splits. Now I'm not sure where Warnock will see more plurality victories, but he will get it. One point of view suggests that the northern subrubs and exurbs are moving towards the Dems so there are enough Blue voters to see Warnock sneak through on 38% pluralities. The other line of thought sees all the 40% AA counties that vote red in the south of the state and expects them to flip because of vote splits.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/10/12/us/elections/results-louisiana-governor-primary-election.html

Right but the big question is where does the vote split and by what margins? If Loeffler is winning--for example--the Republican vote in Forsyth 65-35, she's going to get a plurality in the county. Only if it's 50-50 does the map get shaky. My question, then, is where is Loeffler's base and where is Collins'.

[GeneralMacArthur]

It's political malpractice that Loeffler hasn't been asked about QAnon yet.

[7,052,770]

It's political malpractice that Loeffler hasn't been asked about QAnon yet.

She was in the debate and claimed not to know what QAnon is

[Lognog]

It's political malpractice that Loeffler hasn't been asked about QAnon yet.

She was in the debate and claimed not to know what QAnon is

She should have been pushed on it

[Tintrlvr]

I'm very curious to see the county map for this race. It's gonna be weird. Right now, I have Warnock winning the counties in red (Abrams '18, Fayette, the expanded black belt, and a few smaller metros.) That said, I have absolutely no idea how the blue counties are going to go except for some vague sense Collins will overperform in his Northeast Georgia district and Loeffler might do best in the rest of the Atlanta exurbs. South Georgia is a big question mark so far as I'm concerned. What are your thoughts?

I actually think Collins will win the exurbs for the most part, with Loeffler winning the rurals (other than the NE). Loeffler has aggressively positioned herself to the right of Collins, with Collins portraying himself as the clean, upright candidate. Of course, depending on the margin between the two, Loeffler could just win everything outside of NE Georgia.

The best analogy right now is the 2019 Louisiana Governors race. Warnock is somewhere between 40 and 50 percent, and his Republican opposition is dueling in the 20s. This absolutely means that Warnock will carry a ton of Republican counties in the first round on pluralities thanks to favorable vote splits. Now I'm not sure where Warnock will see more plurality victories, but he will get it. One point of view suggests that the northern subrubs and exurbs are moving towards the Dems so there are enough Blue voters to see Warnock sneak through on 38% pluralities. The other line of thought sees all the 40% AA counties that vote red in the south of the state and expects them to flip because of vote splits.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/10/12/us/elections/results-louisiana-governor-primary-election.html

It looks like he already has nearly every county where Clinton got over 35% of the vote going to Warnock. Even if the split between Loeffler and Collins is pretty even statewide, it's going to be very difficult for Warnock to win counties where Clinton was in the low 30s, and all but impossible in places where she was below 30.

[walleye26]

What are the odds Warnock actually clears 50%? I know some lame Dems like Lieberman and Tarver are running, but if enough GOPers hate Collins and Loeffler for this madness and leave it blank or high Black turnout in Georgia happens, could Warnock avoid the runoff?