Hillary and Arkansas

[President Johnson]

I've seen multiple alternate scenarios in this forum showing Hillary Clinton winning Arkansas in the general election. Why is there this notion she would have won Arkansas in 2008? While the state's political geography in 2008 was different from 2016 or today, I don't buy the suggestion the state would have voted Democratic on the presidential level if she was on top of the ticket. Obama even underperformed John Kerry by a fair margin (Obama lost 39-59%, while Kerry lost 44-54%; for comparison: Gore lost 45-51%). Arkansas was rapidly trending Republican each cycle ever since Bubba last won in 1996. I know that Mark Pryor won in 2008 and Mike Beebe twice in 2006 and 2010 by wide margins, but the presidential level was a different story. Hillary may have done better than Obama actually did, but I don't see how she does much better than Kerry. In order to win, she needed to do at least 10 points better than Obama, which means a total shift of about 20 points. That's hardly believeable.

[TDAS04]

I've seen multiple alternate scenarios in this forum showing Hillary Clinton winning Arkansas in the general election. Why is there this notion she would have won Arkansas in 2008? While the state's political geography in 2008 was different from 2016 or today, I don't buy the suggestion the state would have voted Democratic on the presidential level if she was on top of the ticket. Obama even underperformed John Kerry by a fair margin (Obama lost 39-59%, while Kerry lost 44-54%; for comparison: Gore lost 45-51%). Arkansas was rapidly trending Republican each cycle ever since Bubba last won in 1996. I know that Mark Begich won in 2008 and Mike Beebe twice in 2006 and 2010 by wide margins, but the presidential level was a different story. Hillary may have done better than Obama actually did, but I don't see how she does much better than Kerry. In order to win, she needed to do at least 10 points better than Obama, which means a total shift of about 20 points. That's hardly believeable.

You mean Pryor?

[President Johnson]

I've seen multiple alternate scenarios in this forum showing Hillary Clinton winning Arkansas in the general election. Why is there this notion she would have won Arkansas in 2008? While the state's political geography in 2008 was different from 2016 or today, I don't buy the suggestion the state would have voted Democratic on the presidential level if she was on top of the ticket. Obama even underperformed John Kerry by a fair margin (Obama lost 39-59%, while Kerry lost 44-54%; for comparison: Gore lost 45-51%). Arkansas was rapidly trending Republican each cycle ever since Bubba last won in 1996. I know that Mark Begich won in 2008 and Mike Beebe twice in 2006 and 2010 by wide margins, but the presidential level was a different story. Hillary may have done better than Obama actually did, but I don't see how she does much better than Kerry. In order to win, she needed to do at least 10 points better than Obama, which means a total shift of about 20 points. That's hardly believeable.

You mean Pryor?

Yeah, fixed. I was confused because both are red state Democrats who lost their seat in 2014.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Possibly because polls showed her winning it against McCain.

[President Johnson]

Possibly because polls showed her winning it against McCain.

Indeed, I checked that out in an old version of a Wikipedia article, but that was as early as May. I can't imagine her overperforming Obama's actual election result by that much.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is speculation, but I think she would've done maybe Kerry-ish numbers in Arkansas or maybe even better. I don't think she would've won it with the upper south trending R throughout that time but she definitely wouldn't have performed like Obama. In the long run, it might not have mattered, Arkansas would end up a solid R state.

[Politician]

Keep in mind '08 Clinton was actually popular in Appalachia and the South due to her being Bill Clinton's wife; she probably wouldn't have won it but it would have been much closer (2-3 point McCain victory and Clinton likely holds all of Kerry's counties.)

[Continential]

In 2016, she ran as Obama's SOS and in 2008 she ran as Bill Clinton's wife.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Possibly because polls showed her winning it against McCain.

Indeed, I checked that out in an old version of a Wikipedia article, but that was as early as May. I can't imagine her overperforming Obama's actual election result by that much.

She would definitely have done much better than Obama did, whether she won it or not. Obama being a black man and his "bitter clingers" comment definitely hurt him a lot in Arkansas. a white Democrat would have done better by default.

[Canis]

Keep in mind '08 Clinton was actually popular in Appalachia and the South due to her being Bill Clinton's wife; she probably wouldn't have won it but it would have been much closer (2-3 point McCain victory and Clinton likely holds all of Kerry's counties.)

Her 2008 campaign was also super #populist she ran on universal healthcare the main difference between her and obama was that obama was more fiscally conservative and hillary was more hawkish
Going back to AR, Arkansas trended right hard in 2008 for a few reason many older democratic voters died between 2004 and 2008 Obama was quite unpopular in the region and AR went for Clinton by a lot in the primary and their were a lot of pumas who voted clinton in the primary and mccain in the general now wheater or not clinton could have won these voters by a huge margin is a unknown she still would have likely overperformed with them though I think Ar would be decided by 5 either way and probably be tilt R Hillary vs Mccain 08 would have been interesting WV would likely also be very close and I think hillary would stand a great chance of winning MO as well. this is what I think the map would look like in Hillary vs Mccain

Hillary Clinton/Evan Bayh 361
John Mccain/Sarah Palin 177

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

She would have won it, and this would be the national map:

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

She would have won it, and this would be the national map:

Why would she do dramatically better than Obama did?

[Da2017]

It be closer but I don't Hillary will do as well Obama overall. She is not as charismatic, however she is a better fit.

[One Term Floridian]

She almost certainly would have won AR that year, and possibly even slowed down the demise its downballot Dems. People seem to forget how stupendously popular Bill Clinton was, especially after two terms of W and she was essentially running for his third term.

Fast forward to 2016, where she was essentially running for Obama's third term and see what happened to her in Appalachia. Things would have been dramatically different eight years Pryor lol

[Kizzuwanda]

She would have won it, and this would be the national map:

Why would she do dramatically better than Obama did?

Literally the only reason anyone other than hardline neocons and the rich voted for McCain was because of racism. Bush had a 20% approval rating at that time, any Republican running on continuing the Bush agenda like McCain did ishould have had no chance. If the Democrat had been white it would have been the biggest landslide in history.

[HAnnA MArin County]

She would have won it, and this would be the national map:

I think Arkansas and North Carolina would have been tossup states and Arizona would be tossup/tilt R. While Hillary did win the Arizona Democratic Primary in 2008 and I think she would have done better there than Obama did (since the state did swing slightly Democratic), I still think native son McCain would have won there by mid single digits.

I don't know if she could have eked out a victory in North Carolina like Obama ultimately did, because as 2016 showed us, black voters were not as energized to vote for a white woman as they did for a black man. Obama won the North Carolina Democratic Primary by 14 points even after then-Governor Mike Easley endorsed Hillary.

I would have rated Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee as Likely R, not tossups. Alaska, Montana, both Dakotas, and South Carolina would be Safe Republican. She lost all three of those in the primaries, so not sure why one would think they would be tossups, especially Alaska after the Palin selection. I know polls showed Obama within striking distance in Alaska, but remember that he won the caucus there by a 3-to-1 margin. To this day, I don't understand why he was so popular up there.

She would have won Missouri by a hair, as the white working-class voters in the rural parts of this state (who delivered landslide victories to Hillary in the primary) had not entirely abandoned the Democratic Party back in 2008. Those four counties in the Bootheel (Dunklin, Mississippi, New Madrid, and Pemiscot) are heavily black and swung pretty heavily to McCain in the general. Draw your own conclusions.

I think she would have done significantly better in Oklahoma as well. I seem to remember some polls showing her trailing McCain by as little as seven points there.

[Da2017]

Arkansas is within single digits. Missouri could go either way. She would of slowed the tread of Appalachia swinging Republican some. I think it be more like an Obama 12 map.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Keep in mind '08 Clinton was actually popular in Appalachia and the South due to her being Bill Clinton's wife; she probably wouldn't have won it but it would have been much closer (2-3 point McCain victory and Clinton likely holds all of Kerry's counties.)

Her 2008 campaign was also super #populist she ran on universal healthcare the main difference between her and obama was that obama was more fiscally conservative and hillary was more hawkish
Going back to AR, Arkansas trended right hard in 2008 for a few reason many older democratic voters died between 2004 and 2008 Obama was quite unpopular in the region and AR went for Clinton by a lot in the primary and their were a lot of pumas who voted clinton in the primary and mccain in the general now wheater or not clinton could have won these voters by a huge margin is a unknown she still would have likely overperformed with them though I think Ar would be decided by 5 either way and probably be tilt R Hillary vs Mccain 08 would have been interesting WV would likely also be very close and I think hillary would stand a great chance of winning MO as well. this is what I think the map would look like in Hillary vs Mccain

Hillary Clinton/Evan Bayh 361
John Mccain/Sarah Palin 177

Study up on punctuation, please.

[South Dakota Democrat]

She would have won it, and this would be the national map:

I think Arkansas and North Carolina would have been tossup states and Arizona would be tossup/tilt R. While Hillary did win the Arizona Democratic Primary in 2008 and I think she would have done better there than Obama did (since the state did swing slightly Democratic), I still think native son McCain would have won there by mid single digits.

I don't know if she could have eked out a victory in North Carolina like Obama ultimately did, because as 2016 showed us, black voters were not as energized to vote for a white woman as they did for a black man. Obama won the North Carolina Democratic Primary by 14 points even after then-Governor Mike Easley endorsed Hillary.

I would have rated Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee as Likely R, not tossups. Alaska, Montana, both Dakotas, and South Carolina would be Safe Republican. She lost all three of those in the primaries, so not sure why one would think they would be tossups, especially Alaska after the Palin selection. I know polls showed Obama within striking distance in Alaska, but remember that he won the caucus there by a 3-to-1 margin. To this day, I don't understand why he was so popular up there.

She would have won Missouri by a hair, as the white working-class voters in the rural parts of this state (who delivered landslide victories to Hillary in the primary) had not entirely abandoned the Democratic Party back in 2008. Those four counties in the Bootheel (Dunklin, Mississippi, New Madrid, and Pemiscot) are heavily black and swung pretty heavily to McCain in the general. Draw your own conclusions.

I think she would have done significantly better in Oklahoma as well. I seem to remember some polls showing her trailing McCain by as little as seven points there.

Minor correction:  Hillary won the South Dakota primary in 2008.

[brucejoel99]

In 2016, she ran as Obama's SOS and in 2008 she ran as Bill Clinton's wife.

[morgankingsley]

I do not see the logic to her winning the state. 8 years is a long time, and nostalgia of certain events can wear off. The south was already pretty solidly Republican, with the final transition being 2000 when gore failed to win even the most democratic ones. It would take a utter blowout even larger than 96 for her to even have a chance to win the state

[Orser67]

I don't think she actually would have won the state, but the logic made a lot more sense in 2008 than it does today. Clinton had carried WV, KY, TN, MO, AR, and LA in 1996 and 2000, both Gore and Kerry had been semi-competitive in that area of the map, and all of those states had at least one Democratic senator or governor. At the time, it seemed possible that nominating Clinton would, at least temporarily, make those states competitive in presidential elections again. With hindsight, though, I think that those states would have kept trending away from the Democratic Party even with Clinton on the ballot because of the ongoing ideological sorting of the two parties.

[un]

It's make more sense than it would now, the Democratic Party was far stronger in the white south than it is now. Arkansas only voted for Bush by 9 in 2004, it was not a super Republican state yet, and some polls did suggest that Clinton could beat McCain in the state. You could sorta see that in the primary, Arkansas primary turnout was way higher for the Democrats in 2008 than it was in 2016 or 2020, particularly in rural, white areas. This could also be seen in states like West Virginia, Kentucky, and some regions of other states like Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi. And of course, in all of these areas, Clinton destroyed Obama in the primary, often by 70+ point margins. She was very popular in the state, and her husband was still very popular. This of course, is not true today, but things change a lot.

I think a Clinton win in Arkansas could have happened, though I'm not entirely sure by how much, and it would also depend on how willing African American voters are to turnout for her, after what would likely be a deeply bitter primary battle between her and Obama. After all, many Clinton voters voted McCain in the general, its why West Virginia and Arkansas swung to the right in 2008 despite nearly every other state swinging left. I don't think Obama voters would vote McCain, but I'm not sure how willing they'd be to vote for Clinton either.

Regardless of whether she wins it, Arkansas would still become a red state, the same way it did under the Obama era timeline, maybe it would be a slower swing, but it would still happen.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

She was leading in the polls by 10, and that was before the Leeman Brothers meltdown.

[Pericles]

On a uniform swing from 2004, Arkansas would have been R+0.03%. It's not that implausible that the residual Clinton brand would have made the state trend at least 0.03% to the left, though it's also possible the trends in the state were just too strong (it only trended 3.81% to the right in 2004 though).