KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in
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  KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in
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Author Topic: KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in  (Read 57849 times)
Epaminondas
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« Reply #825 on: July 03, 2020, 05:11:38 AM »
« edited: July 03, 2020, 05:43:57 AM by Epaminondas »

Take a second to consider what you posted.

Now, more to the point: where is McGrath's base for November?
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
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« Reply #826 on: July 03, 2020, 06:00:03 AM »

Take a second to consider what you posted.

Now, more to the point: where is McGrath's base for November?

Absolutely evergreen: Deep down, the centrists know that they have no defense for their candidate, so they've resorted to whataboutery.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #827 on: July 03, 2020, 06:08:48 AM »

So are we gonna do the thing where we pretend that a progressive is somehow more electable than a centrist in a red state?

The one poll we have for both candidates suggests Booker is substantially more electable, by which I mean his defeat is stilll inevitable but the margin is smaller.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #828 on: July 03, 2020, 10:29:25 AM »

Good thing McGrath has her 40M dollars, she should coast on that until E-day and not drain funds from actual electable Senate candidates.


So are we gonna do the thing where we pretend that a progressive is somehow more electable than a centrist in a red state?

There's a thing called turnout, that a certain centrist in 2016 didn't get in red states in her general election. Nor in purple states either.
Labels are pointless - what matters is activating a solid base.
Clinton was seen as more radical between her and Trump among the general electorate. Stop spouting this lie that she was seen as centrist. The only people who think that are Twitter Bros who are out of touch with real people.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #829 on: July 03, 2020, 10:36:39 AM »

Good thing McGrath has her 40M dollars, she should coast on that until E-day and not drain funds from actual electable Senate candidates.


So are we gonna do the thing where we pretend that a progressive is somehow more electable than a centrist in a red state?

There's a thing called turnout, that a certain centrist in 2016 didn't get in red states in her general election. Nor in purple states either.
Labels are pointless - what matters is activating a solid base.

Fine let's look at 2020 where Biden wins every single county in Michigan and Florida
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #830 on: July 03, 2020, 12:13:38 PM »

Not sure how much effort I want to put into this cuz I don't really have a horse in this race, in fact if I had lived in Kentucky I would have been likely to vote for Booker.  I'm just annoyed by the Bernies who seem so upset by this.

To the extent McGrath has a base it's almost certainly suburban women--good ole soccer moms. Some Booker fans upthread recognized this and took a few cheap shots at women.  If Booker had started earlier been better organized and able to be more visible outside of the Louisville market he might have been able to crack that, but he didn't.  It would have been a fun narrative for Booker to beat Ms Moneybucks and they take on Moscow Moneybucks Mitch.  Kind of populist but it's not like the rurals would have voted for him either. 

Neither candidate would win, because KY is too rural and too white to be competitive in the current electoral environment.  As far as McGrath sucking up too much money that could go to other campaigns, i don't really buy that narrative either.  A Booker win would have sparked a bit of a fundraising frenzy in some corners and the DSCC would have felt compelled to give him finacial support because they gave McGrath support.  At this point KY should be like 10th or 12th on the DSCC.  Maybe McGrath's weak showing will help them keep it in perspective (if they were having trouble). 
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« Reply #831 on: July 03, 2020, 02:34:11 PM »

McGrath isn’t a bad candidate because she’s “too centrist”, she’s a bad candidate because she’s gaffe-prone, a grifter, and an empty suit who shows little consistency in her views. Believe it or not, most voters don’t decide who to vote for based on their handy-dandy “centrist calculator”, and sometimes the more progressive candidate also happens to be the better candidate, even if the race isn’t really winnable for either candidate.
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Blair
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« Reply #832 on: July 03, 2020, 05:20:16 PM »

Yes as I've said before McGrath isn't actually some raging blue dog; she just uses her background as a fighter pilot to distract from her laregly mainstream progressive views.

Money isn't an issue for democrats & frankly we can't stop people donating to her in the same way republicans can't stop people donating to the opponents of Schiff/Pelosi/AOC or the usual scammers who run some random SUPER-PAC which uses god fearing mailers to dupe the eldery.
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« Reply #833 on: July 05, 2020, 05:59:26 PM »

Kentucky is now an example to us all on how to conduct an election during a COVID-19 pandemic:

Coronavirus threatened to make a mess of Kentucky’s primary. It could be a model instead.
The state scaled up absentee voting and challenged its primary turnout record despite the coronavirus pandemic.
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Donerail
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« Reply #834 on: July 05, 2020, 08:48:17 PM »

To the extent McGrath has a base it's almost certainly suburban women--good ole soccer moms. Some Booker fans upthread recognized this and took a few cheap shots at women.  If Booker had started earlier been better organized and able to be more visible outside of the Louisville market he might have been able to crack that, but he didn't.  It would have been a fun narrative for Booker to beat Ms Moneybucks and they take on Moscow Moneybucks Mitch.  Kind of populist but it's not like the rurals would have voted for him either. 
Soccer moms in other states, maybe...

McGrath's best performances were in counties like Crittenden, Metcalfe, Edmonson, Butler — mostly in the central or eastern part of the state, mostly white, no universities. I'd struggle to call any of those counties "suburban" in a meaningful sense.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #835 on: July 05, 2020, 09:07:30 PM »

To the extent McGrath has a base it's almost certainly suburban women--good ole soccer moms. Some Booker fans upthread recognized this and took a few cheap shots at women.  If Booker had started earlier been better organized and able to be more visible outside of the Louisville market he might have been able to crack that, but he didn't.  It would have been a fun narrative for Booker to beat Ms Moneybucks and they take on Moscow Moneybucks Mitch.  Kind of populist but it's not like the rurals would have voted for him either. 
Soccer moms in other states, maybe...

McGrath's best performances were in counties like Crittenden, Metcalfe, Edmonson, Butler — mostly in the central or eastern part of the state, mostly white, no universities. I'd struggle to call any of those counties "suburban" in a meaningful sense.

I'd call Boone Kenton and Campbell suburban and McGrath won those by 20-25 pts.  She won all the counties around Fayette and did better than I expected in Fayette Co too.  Who were all those McGrath voters in Fayettte?
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Donerail
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« Reply #836 on: July 06, 2020, 07:24:13 AM »

McGrath's best performances were in counties like Crittenden, Metcalfe, Edmonson, Butler — mostly in the central or eastern part of the state, mostly white, no universities. I'd struggle to call any of those counties "suburban" in a meaningful sense.

I'd call Boone Kenton and Campbell suburban and McGrath won those by 20-25 pts.  She won all the counties around Fayette and did better than I expected in Fayette Co too.  Who were all those McGrath voters in Fayettte?
Have you ever been to Georgetown? It's a pretty town — the college campus is gorgeous and there's a nice little stretch of buildings downtown — but it does not feel like the prototypical white suburb. Lexington's just not a big enough town to have suburbs in the way that major cities do.

Booker won college towns and blacks, McGrath carried the rest. It's a little silly to look any deeper than that to come up with some sort of "typical McGrath voters" — when you're winning 70+ counties, the McGrath voter looks pretty much the same as the median voter.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #837 on: July 06, 2020, 10:52:08 AM »

Ds are turning their attention to other races
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #838 on: July 06, 2020, 01:47:23 PM »

McGrath's best performances were in counties like Crittenden, Metcalfe, Edmonson, Butler — mostly in the central or eastern part of the state, mostly white, no universities. I'd struggle to call any of those counties "suburban" in a meaningful sense.

I'd call Boone Kenton and Campbell suburban and McGrath won those by 20-25 pts.  She won all the counties around Fayette and did better than I expected in Fayette Co too.  Who were all those McGrath voters in Fayettte?
Have you ever been to Georgetown? It's a pretty town — the college campus is gorgeous and there's a nice little stretch of buildings downtown — but it does not feel like the prototypical white suburb. Lexington's just not a big enough town to have suburbs in the way that major cities do.

Booker won college towns and blacks, McGrath carried the rest. It's a little silly to look any deeper than that to come up with some sort of "typical McGrath voters" — when you're winning 70+ counties, the McGrath voter looks pretty much the same as the median voter.

Yeah, I've been there.  It's nice.  The counties aren't straight up suburban but a mixed of old courthouse towns and subdivisons of people who are certainly commuting to Lexington or Frankfort or all the distilleries in between.  They are growing and casting more votes in the D primary as opposed to the east and west rural counties, so it does matter more who votes for McGrath  there.  If the primary had had a turnout by county comparable to 2008 McGrath would have won by 8-10 points.  I don't think Booker could have cracked the decling rural county vote vs McGrath but he might have been able to make inroads in greater Lexington and NKY if he had started earlier, been better organized, etc... but he didn't. 
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #839 on: July 14, 2020, 06:32:55 AM »

McGrath is on Morning Joe this morning. I think people here may overblow how "terrible" she is. At least in this one particular interview, she comes off pretty common sense. I think in all reality, this will probably be the closest race of Mitch's career. Out of any of the candidates, I do believe she probably has the best chance to get as close as possible.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #840 on: July 14, 2020, 06:34:39 AM »

McGrath is on Morning Joe this morning. I think people here may overblow how "terrible" she is. At least in this one particular interview, she comes off pretty common sense. I think in all reality, this will probably be the closest race of Mitch's career. Out of any of the candidates, I do believe she probably has the best chance to get as close as possible.

She is not coming better than Lunsford 2008, that’s just you being a hack
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #841 on: July 14, 2020, 06:49:43 AM »

McGrath is on Morning Joe this morning. I think people here may overblow how "terrible" she is. At least in this one particular interview, she comes off pretty common sense. I think in all reality, this will probably be the closest race of Mitch's career. Out of any of the candidates, I do believe she probably has the best chance to get as close as possible.

She is not coming better than Lunsford 2008, that’s just you being a hack

Guess we'll just have to wait and see!
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #842 on: July 14, 2020, 08:16:36 AM »

McGrath is on Morning Joe this morning. I think people here may overblow how "terrible" she is. At least in this one particular interview, she comes off pretty common sense. I think in all reality, this will probably be the closest race of Mitch's career. Out of any of the candidates, I do believe she probably has the best chance to get as close as possible.

You are extremely confident about Democratic chances, perhaps too confident. While it is clear that Biden is leading Trump by a substantial margin right now (at least on par with Obama-2008 levels) and that several Senate Republicans are in jeopardy, I think it's too much of a stretch to make such a declaration with regards to Kentucky. McConnell's closest race in his career was back in 1984, when he beat his predecessor Walter Huddleston by just 0.40%. Even in 2008, he defeated Lunsford by 5%. I expect McConnell to beat McGrath by at least low double digits, if not more. And Rocky Adkins would have been a much better candidate against McConnell than McGrath is proving to be. One "common sense" interview won't reverse the damage she inflicted on herself during the primary.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #843 on: July 14, 2020, 08:19:41 AM »

My point is that I think people here generally overestimate how things like that matter. They may, and I could be wrong. But we are very in the weeds here and see everything that is going on. There's the chance that most of Kentuckians haven't really been paying attention to this campaign (tHAT intensely) to know McGrath's every single misstep during the primary.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #844 on: July 14, 2020, 08:22:04 AM »

My point is that I think people here generally overestimate how things like that matter. They may, and I could be wrong. But we are very in the weeds here and see everything that is going on. There's the chance that most of Kentuckians haven't really been paying attention to this campaign (tHAT intensely) to know McGrath's every single misstep during the primary.

You can be quite sure that they'll know by the time November comes around. McConnell is ruthless, and his campaign will exploit McGrath's missteps for as much as they are worth.
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« Reply #845 on: August 02, 2020, 04:55:51 AM »

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/31/politics/seth-moulton-red-states-playing-politics-covid/index.html

Quote
A Democratic congressman from Massachusetts said "we certainly have this perception in the Northeast that all the red states are getting what was coming to them because they refused to follow these mandates, and they're playing politics" with Covid-19, as cases continue to surge in conservative-leaning states like Texas and Florida.

Rep. Seth Moulton's comments came in a conversation on Monday with Amy McGrath, a Democrat who is running for the US Senate in Kentucky, hosted by the 92nd Street Y. A spokeswoman for McGrath's opponent in the race, Sen. Mitch McConnell, then tweeted a clip Moulton's comment calling him out for his comments and for McGrath's response in which she "smiles and nods."

Needless to say, McConnell and McGrath are using this to attack each other (even though the only person who really should get hurt by this is Seth Moulton for his horrible choice of words.)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #846 on: August 02, 2020, 07:35:43 AM »

In today's poll that showed Trump tied with Biden, Trump approvals are at 50 percent in red states, the blue states and the Hilary states Trump approvals are at 46 percent, IL, MI, PA, WI and MN
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #847 on: August 02, 2020, 12:08:48 PM »

McGrath isn’t a bad candidate because she’s “too centrist”, she’s a bad candidate because she’s gaffe-prone, a grifter, and an empty suit who shows little consistency in her views. Believe it or not, most voters don’t decide who to vote for based on their handy-dandy “centrist calculator”, and sometimes the more progressive candidate also happens to be the better candidate, even if the race isn’t really winnable for either candidate.

Maybe, just maybe, they don't need the calculator because oftentimes "centrist" politics (which usually is just a euphemism for corporate corruption anyway) correspond to a PR-obsessed persona, lack of articulable values or morals, a willingness to do or say anything to get elected, etc.

Everything about Amy McGrath, John Hickenlooper, Ossoff, MJ Hegar, Cunningham, etc. feels contrived. I actually happen to know Hick, and can tell you that IRL he is not this friendly soap salesman act he puts on. He's a mean drunk with a penchant for saying abusive things to his staffers and living a bit more luxuriously than someone of his station probably should. But he also is willing to be whomever donors/Schumer/the party tells him to be in public in order to seek the office that he desires, because it's all about him and he doesn't care at all about anybody else, let alone working people.

I think this kind of vapidity is highly visible for those with eyes to see, and Amy "pro Trump" McGrath exemplifies it too, albeit to a lesser degree. Eventually, these DSCC lapdogs won't be able to make it through primaries anyway, and it will all be revealed the whole time that corporatists puppets were, in fact, less electable.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #848 on: August 02, 2020, 01:33:18 PM »

ALG fundraiser shows that Ds are targetted Graham and Cornyn instead of AL, KY and AK. Where Rs are leading by double digits. McConnell will win even in a blue tsunami

Jones down by 10
McGrath down by 22
Gross down by 13. 

Tsunami proof states
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« Reply #849 on: August 19, 2020, 02:20:57 PM »

McConnell challenges McGrath to 'socially distanced, Lincoln-Douglas style' debate
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