Bush 04 in Waukesha County, WI
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  Bush 04 in Waukesha County, WI
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Author Topic: Bush 04 in Waukesha County, WI  (Read 1607 times)
Arbitrage1980
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« on: July 05, 2019, 08:59:53 PM »

It's a GOP stronghold, but surprised that Bush's 67.3% there in 04 was higher than Reagan 84 and Nixon 72. It was the best performance since Eisenhower 56. Why was Bush so strong there that year?
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2019, 02:09:34 PM »

It's a GOP stronghold, but surprised that Bush's 67.3% there in 04 was higher than Reagan 84 and Nixon 72. It was the best performance since Eisenhower 56. Why was Bush so strong there that year?

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Computer89
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« Reply #2 on: July 06, 2019, 03:32:13 PM »

Wait didn’t Reagan get over 70% in WOW
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #3 on: July 06, 2019, 10:40:14 PM »


No, only 65.7%. In fact, we find an interesting result in the 1984/1988 results.

1984
Reagan: 92,426
Mondale: 47,313

1988
Bush: 90,467
Dukakis: 57,598

So even Reagan's 65.7% was largely just a case of horrible turnout for Mondale.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #4 on: July 08, 2019, 12:23:19 AM »

WOW have long been Republican Counties, but they weren't as supercharged for the GOP decades ago as they were in the Bush/Obama eras. At that point the country was a vastly different place and Waukesha was less different than upscale suburban counties in other metropolitan areas.

The real question I guess is why WOW was trending right while most northern suburbs were trending left through the Clinton/Bush/Obama years.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #5 on: July 08, 2019, 09:10:38 AM »

Waukesha actually trended R in both 2008 and 2012. Relative to his NPV share, Kerry actually did better in Waukesha County, WI than Obama ever did.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2019, 09:39:49 PM »

Romney almost carried the county by the same margin (maybe Paul Ryan helped a little in that part of Wisconsin).
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #7 on: July 19, 2019, 11:15:51 PM »
« Edited: July 19, 2019, 11:19:32 PM by Tartarus Sauce »

WOW have long been Republican Counties, but they weren't as supercharged for the GOP decades ago as they were in the Bush/Obama eras. At that point the country was a vastly different place and Waukesha was less different than upscale suburban counties in other metropolitan areas.

The real question I guess is why WOW was trending right while most northern suburbs were trending left through the Clinton/Bush/Obama years.

Yeah, if anything, the Chicago suburbs just to the south were more like the WOW suburbs of the day, the hyper Republican bastions that were even more conservative than their already conservative peers. This was especially true of DuPage County, which hosted some of the most blisteringly right-wing suburbs in the country right alongside Orange County in California (Goldwater won both by double digits).

I’ve heard it said that at least part of the reason for the continuing stalwart tendencies of the WOW suburbs is due in part to the old-school political dynamic between the managerial class that has a disproportionate presence in WOW and the labor class located mainly in Milwaukee. Another explanation I’ve heard relates to the ample presence of conservative talk radio in the region, but I suspect that’s more likely to be a symptom rather than a cause. There has to be a deeper root reason to WOW’s stubborn conservative bent. I’d be curious to hear your take, TJ.

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538Electoral
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« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2019, 05:01:37 AM »

The county almost voted less Republican in 2016 than in 2008. If Trump can get Waukesha back to Bush-Romney margins, He'll gain around 20,000 votes and easily carry the state again assuming he holds everything else he won.
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coolface1572
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« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2019, 06:45:09 PM »

Perhaps even more interesting was the shift away from the gop in 2016. Trump got the least amount of votes for a republican since 2000.

As a resident of Waukesha County my whole life, I met quite few people who left the GOP due to Trump, including myself. And it's not hard to see why. Most people here are relatively high income and are not affected nearly as much, if at all, by immigration and trade deals. Also many here believed he was just plain racist. Before trump there were gop yard signs for Romney, Scott Walker, and many others for years. Yet in 2016 there really were only Ron Johnson signs.

This really is GOP anti-trump land. During the 2018 gop senate primary, I saw a lot of Leah Vukmir support and not a single person for Kevin Nicholson.
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