A world without 9/11

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night Continued
Lin:Democrats sweeping both marquee statewide races tonight. What are the implications long term for the state? Secondarily do you agree the south is still a swing region? We will start with Margaret.

Carlson: Certainly as tonight has shown with a strong campaign the South is very much in play for Democrats. We have consistently seen Democrats put together a coalition of urban liberals and moderates with decent support among populist working class whites and African Americans. As for Georgia specifically well we have seen Democrats win back a good portion of their traditional southern rural support with increased margins in Atlanta and growing support in the Atlanta suburbs. I think tonight shows Democrats very much are still in contention with the South and can put it in play for 2004.

Novak: Sure tonight’s results aren’t what we would like to see across the South but I really do believe as past elections have shown the region is trending towards us. In more localized races Democrats can still do well but in a nationalized 50 state campaign I believe we’re going to see them have difficulty keeping together a West Coast-North East-Mid West and Southern coalition.

Hunt: Well Bill Clinton did just that so I’m not sure it’s as hard as Republicans are making it out to be. We just have to avoid running candidates that are a bad cultural fit for the region.

O’Beirne: Who are Democrats going to nominate from the South that can win the nomination though that would do well in the South. Edwards is inexperienced, Graham can’t win the nomination, Gore is too far removed from the South to win much of the South in the general.

Lin: We will have to take a break to head over for another CNN projection!

[Pragmatic Conservative]

CNN Projection


CNN can project that Steve Beshear will defeat incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell for a Democratic gain.This is a major gain for Democrats who now are just two seats away from securing control of the Senate for the next two years. We will now head back to our panel for their thoughts on this race and the events of tonight so far.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night Continued

Lin: Major gain for Democrats in what was one of the most competitive races of the night. So will start with this what can the results of this race tell us and assuming Democrats hold the Senate what will that mean for the next two years of the Bush administration? We will go back to Kate.

O’Beirne: As I have said about some of the other Southern races I don’t feel these races really have much long term implication politically. I don’t really believe we’re going to be seeing Democrats sweeping the South in 04; their simply aren’t many great fits for the region on the Dem side. As for how Bush would work with a Democratic Senate and very likely a Democratic House (editors note: The House isn’t formally called for Democrats until 11:00 pm in this TL) well I believe this President is willing to work across the aisle to get things done. My only concern as with the Social Security bill that we are going to see Democrats more interested in obstructing than working with Republicans on major legislative proposals.

Hunt: I certainly think this race shows Democrats have a way forward in the South and that many Southerners are perhaps feeling let down by Republican politicians. Certainly tonight’s results can’t be used to predict the future but I think it’s silly to simply dismiss them as a one time occurrence. Democrats have a strong bench in the South with many capable candidates. Not to rehash the social security debate but that hardly is an example of an attempt at bipartisanship from Republicans; instead of coming up with a popular proposal Republicans ignored polling and feedback from their own town hall to try and pass an unpopular proposal that looks to be hurting them tonight. If Republicans make a strong attempt at working with Democrats than I trust that some deals can be reached but Congressional Republicans will need to make some concessions here.

Novak: Kate is right here we simply can’t put that much stock in trying to predict future elections based on the result of midterm results. Certainly tonight’s results can’t be brushed off as nothing but it’s hardly a surefire sign of Republican defat for 2004. As for candidates well many of those Democratic southern candidates would have difficulty winning the nomination if they ran. People like Bob Graham would have difficulty winning, while Gore is just too North Eastern to win many Southern States. As for Edwards he is only a one term Senator and could be attacked for that. Democrats hardly spent much time wanting to debate social security instead they screamed and obstructed. If Democrats want something to get passed their going to have to work with us constructively on legislation; I trust Bush can and will work across the aisle to get stuff done.

Carlson: I won’t talk much about Kentucky as we have discussed similar things with most of these southern states but I do believe that these states are still winnable for Dems as tonight shows and Republicans simply can’t take these places for granted. As for 2004 while it’s not going to be easy for Democrats down South it’s hardly an un winnable place for Dems. John Edwards will have the same amount of experience in state wide office as the President by 2000 so that’s not really going to be as much of an issue as Republicans talk about. I do believe that at least some of the Southern Dem office holders can win the nomination and bet absolutely can win some Southern States. As for the upcoming Congress assuming Democrats take both houses of Congress I absolutely believe Democrats will be willing to work with the President on issues of agreement but we are going to need to see some compromise here from the President; simply pushing through controversial policies like partial privatization of social security is simply not going to work.

Lin: We are out of time. I will send it to another CNN projection before a look at our big board and our 11:00 pm poll closings.   

[Pragmatic Conservative]

CNN Projections

Blitzer: CNN can make the following two projections:



In Tennessee CNN can project Phil Bredesen will be elected the next Governor a gain for Democrats



Over in North Carolina CNN can project that Erskine Bowles will be elected the next Senator of North Carolina a major gain for Democrats pushing them one seat away from retaining control of the Senate.
 
We will now pass it over to John King for a look at our big board before heading over to our 11:00 PM projections.

[Epaminondas]

Awwww yes.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night Coverage Continued

John King: Thanks Wolf! A pair of major projections for Democrats indeed who are on the verge of holding on to the senate. Let’s take a ook at the races that have yet to be decided:

We won't have time to look at any county maps right now, but we may take a closer examination of some of these races after the top of the hour.

Senate big Board:

South Carolina Senate 78%
Alex Sanders 52%
Lindsey Graham 45.8%
Other 2.2%

Missouri Senate 61%
Jean Carnahan 51.8%
Jim Talent   46.3%
Other 1.9%

Tennessee Senate 67%
Bob Clement  51.6%
Lamar Alexander 46.8%
Other 1.6%

Texas Senate 65%
Ron Kirk 50%
John Cornyn 49.3%
Other 0.7%

South Dakota Senate 44%
Tim Johnson 53%
John Thune 46%
Other 1%

Minnesota Senate 47%
Walter Mondale 53.4%
Norm Coleman 42.6%
Other 4%

Colorado Senate 55%
Tom Strickland 49.3%
Wayne Allard 48%
Other 2.6%

Louisiana Senate 57%
Mary Landrieu 48.9%
Suzanne Haik Terrell  28.7%
Other Republicans 20.1%
Other Democrats 1.4%
Other 0.9%

Ok Democratic caucus at 50 Senate seats currently and only need one more victory for Senate control. Democrats look to be holding on in South Dakota, Minnesota and Missouri  while over in Louisiana we are waiting to see if Landrieu can get over 50% to avoid a runoff. The races in Texas, South Carolina and Colorado remain tight at this moment.

Governor Big Board

South Carolina Governor 78%
Jim Hodges 54.6%
Mark Sanford 45.4%

Vermont Governor 88%
Doug Racine 47.6%
Jim Douglas 45.8%
Other 6.6%

Alabama Governor 69%
Don Siegelman 51%
Bob Riley 47.6%
Other 1.4%

Illinois Governor 61%
Rod Blagojevich  53.5%
Jim Ryan 44.2%
Other 2.3%

Maryland Governor 55%
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend  52%
Bob Ehrlich 47%
Other 1%

Massachusetts Governor 67%
Shannon O'Brien  48.5%
Mitt Romney  48.1%
Other 4.3%

Oklahoma Governor 58%
Brad Henry  46%
Steve Largent 40%
Other 14%

Rhode Island Governor 65%
Donald Carcieri  53.5%
Myrth York 46.5%

Michigan Governor 61%
Jennifer Granholm  52.7%
Dick Posthumus  45.9%
Other 1.4%

Minnesota Governor 47%
Roger Moe 40.9%
Tim Pawlenty  36.4%
Tim Penny 19.7%
Other 3%

Wisconsin Governor 50%
Scott McCallum  46%
Jim Doyle  40%
Ed Thompson 10%
Other 2%

Wyoming Governor 55%
Dave Freudenthal  50.8%
Eli Bebout  46.9%
Other 2.3%


Arkansas Governor 50%
Jimmie Lou Fisher 50.5
Mike Huckabee  49.5%

Arizona Governor 35%
Janet Napolitano  46%
Matt Salmon  45.9%
Other 8.1%

We are getting close contests in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Massachusetts, Oklahoma Arkansas, Arizona and Alabama. Republicans look to be holding on in Rhode Island while Democrats look to be doing the same in Michigan and Illinois. Vermont is likely to head to a legislature vote as neither candidate looks likely to get over 50% of the vote.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

11:00 PM Poll Closings

Blitzer:Polls have now closed in Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii plus the rest of Idaho. CNN can make the following projections:

Senate:
Idaho: Larry Craig re-elected (R-Hold)
Oregon:Gordon Smith re-elected (R-Hold)
  
From earlier we can project:
Minnesota:Walter Mondale elected (D-Hold)
Missouri: Jean Carnahan re-elected (D-Hold)
Tennessee: Bob Clement elected (D-Gain)

CNN can now project based on the following Senate projectionsthat Democrats will control the Senate for another two years.

Governor:
Idaho: Dirk Kempthorne re-elected (R-Hold)
California: Too early to call with Gray Davis in the lead
Oregon: Too early to call with Ted Kulongoski in the lead
Hawaii: Too close to call

From earlier we can project:
Rhode Island: Donald Carcieri elected (R-Hold)
Illinois: Rod Blagojevich elected (D-Gain)
Michigan: Jennifer Granholm elected (D-Gain)
Vermont: Neither Candidate will finish above 50% and the winner will be decided by the legislature.

CNN can also at this time project Democrats will win control over the US House.

We will next take a look at where we stand for our senate and Governor races before we head to John King for a deeper look at some of the uncalled races.

[Non-consecutive Two Term Floridian]

Election Night Continued

Deeds would be doing significantly better in the rurals, especially in his home region around Bath and Allegany counties. No way he’d be losing those, even to Warner. He was winning those counties with over 60% even in 2009 against McDonnell in the Gov race

[OBD]

Seems weird to me that Oregon isn't even competitive. Yes, Smith won by 17 IRL, but so did Mitch and Kentucky went blue. And Kentucky is, even at this stage, significantly redder than Oregon. While Smith may not have gone down, the race should at least be in single digits.

[Elcaspar]

Bump.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Seems weird to me that Oregon isn't even competitive. Yes, Smith won by 17 IRL, but so did Mitch and Kentucky went blue. And Kentucky is, even at this stage, significantly redder than Oregon. While Smith may not have gone down, the race should at least be in single digits.

He won by 9 but most of the exit polls showed a slightly larger lead which matched polling. Anyway I mostly based a larger win on candidate quality and the fact Oregon was more of a marginal state at the time and the south was more hospitable to down ballot Democrats.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Bump.

I will get back to this and probably chip away at it when I have time. Going to skip going through the remaining election night coverage as results and post final results.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Senate


Governor

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Democrats take House and hold Senate amid major anti Bush/Republican wave

Democrats took full advantage of President George W Bush unpopularity, securing their first House majority since the 1994 Republican Revolution and strengthening their tenuous grip on the senate going from 51 to 58 seats. In a statement the white house acknowledged their disappointment in last nights results but stated they hoped to work closely with the incoming Democratic congress in order to pass bipartisan reforms on items such as health care and immigration reform. The statement did not offer many specific policy proposals but seemed to indicate the President was at least willing to work with Democrats in order to get his agenda passed. Democrats however were in a much more celebratory mood declaring last night as a massive victory against President Bush while stating it is clear that the American people are already tiring of the Republican parties agenda. Exit polls themselves showed just a 40% approval rating for the President while showing Al Gore would defeat the President by a 10 point margin in a potential rematch between the two.

Exit Poll

Gender:
Male: 53-46 Dem
Female: 57-42 Dem

Race:
White: 50-48 Rep
African American 94-5 Dem
Hispanic 66-33 Dem
Asian 62-37 Dem

Age:
18-24: 55-44 Dem
25-29: 57-42 Dem
30-49: 52-47 Dem
50-64: 53-46 Dem
65+ 56-43 Dem

If any of you would like to see more exit poll data please feel free to ask same with any county maps.

[BigVic]

Dubya will end up like Poppy in 2004 in a no 9/11 world.

[Elcaspar]

If any of you would like to see more exit poll data please feel free to ask same with any county maps.

I would like to see Texas Senate and Minnesota Governor. Those must have been pretty close.

[Non-consecutive Two Term Floridian]

Astounding to see so much residual Democratic strength in the South in this timeline

[Elcaspar]

Astounding to see so much residual Democratic strength in the South in this timeline

My thoughts exactly.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

If any of you would like to see more exit poll data please feel free to ask same with any county maps.

I would like to see Texas Senate and Minnesota Governor. Those must have been pretty close.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

2004 Presidential map

With 2002 in the books it is time to turn our attention to 2004 where Democrats are looking to recapture the white house and retain control of the senate. Just days after the midterm elections media outlets have already published their early 2004 ratings the Presidency.

Presidential Map

90% Safe
60% Likely
30% Lean
50% Green Tossup

102 EV Safe Bush
16 EV Likely Bush
63 EV Lean Bush

181 EV George W Bush

92 EV Safe D
108 EV Likely D
48 EV Lean D

248 EV Democrats

109 EV Tossup
It is too early to do a map for President Bush against specific candidates but here is an early look at the President against a Generic Democrat. Democrats start with a clear but not overwhelming advantage over the President. Democrats have the edge in all but two of the states Al Gore carried (IA and NM) while 9 states George W Bush and Bill Clinton carried at least once are are considered tossups (AR,AZ,CO,NV,NH,MO,WV,OH and FL). The President has a small advantage over most of the non tossup southern states with the exception of Kentucky, Texas and South Carolina which are rated either Safe or Likely D. Meanwhile Democrats hold a small advantage over much of the Midwest while holding a significant advantage in the Northeast and much of the West Coast.  

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Lame Duck Period



image from:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Capitol#/media/File:US_Capitol_west_side.JPG

November to December 2002: Tom Delay and Bill Frist take over as Republican Senate and House leaders respectively
A leadership shakeup has occurred in the Republican caucus with Trent Lott and Dennis Hastert both stepping down from their leadership posts in the wake of Democrats taking over the House and retaining Senate control. Republicans are hopeful that new leadership will help their party to regain congressional control in 2004.

December 31st: 2004 Democratic Presidential Primary

As of December 31st:

Officially announced:
None

Formed Exploratory Campaign:
Outgoing Vermont Governor Howard Dean
New York Senator Hillary Clinton
North Carolina Senator John Edwards


Declined to be Candidate:
Speaker Designate Dick Gephardt (Running for re-election)
Florida Senator Bob Graham (Running for re-election)
Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry

Undecided:
Former Vice President Al Gore
Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman (won't run if Al Gore runs)

Polling

Democratic Primary with Gore
Al Gore 27%
Hillary Clinton 25%
John Edwards 7%
Howard Dean 3%
Other 4%
Undecided 34%

Democratic Primary with Lieberman
Hillary Clinton 29%
Joe Lieberman 22%
John Edwards 9%
Howard Dean 5%
Other 5%
Undecided 30%

Democratic Primary with neither Gore or Lieberman
Hillary Clinton 39%
John Edwards 13%
Howard Dean 7%
Other 7%
Undecided 34%

National Polls:
Al Gore 49%
George W Bush 40%
Undecided/Other 11%

Hillary Clinton 50%
George W Bush 42%
Undecided/Other 8%

Joe Lieberman 52%
George W Bush 38%
Undecided/Other 10%

John Edwards 45%
George W Bush 37%
Undecided/Other 18%

Howard Dean 43%
George W Bush 39%
Undecided/Other 18%

[OSR stands with Israel]

If any of you would like to see more exit poll data please feel free to ask same with any county maps.

I would like to see Texas Senate and Minnesota Governor. Those must have been pretty close.

There is no way Fort Bend or Hays go Dem in 2002 , much of rural Texas was still more democratic than those countries back then

[Politician]

AFAIK Fort Bend and Hays voted to the left of the state in TX-SEN 2002.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

January 2003


image from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Sharpton#/media/File:2016_National_Action_Network_King_Day_Breakfast_(24485953015).jpg

January 5th: Al Sharpton announces Presidential bid: Reverend and civil rights activist  Al Sharpton became the first major Democrat to formally announce his bid for US President. Sharpton who has a following among some Democratic voters could potentially take upwards of 2%-3% of the primary vote but is not considered likely to be a serious contender for the nomination.

January 28th:Prescription Drug reform and Immigration reform are top items in State of the Union address:

image from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_the_Union#/media/File:SOU2007.jpg
(President George W Bush speaking in front of Vice President Dick Cheney and House Majority leader Nancy Pelosi)
President George W Bush second state of the union address featured calls for bipartisanship in the wake of Democrats controlling both houses of congress. President Bush called on congress to consider reforms to the countries current prescription drug system to improve affordability for seniors and young people. The President however also warned against the potential dangers of a government run healthcare system stressing such a system would be unaffordable and a bureaucratic nightmare. Also in the address was a call for immigration reform to help make it easier for immigrants to enter the country legally and to address our illegal immigration crisis with compassion while still supporting national security.

Polling

George W Bush Approval January 31st 2003
Approve 43% (+3)
Disapprove 55% (-2)
Undecided 2%

Democratic Primary with Gore
Al Gore 27%
Hillary Clinton 26%
John Edwards 10%
Howard Dean 3%
Al Sharpton 2%
Other 3%
Undecided 29%

Democratic Primary with Lieberman
Hillary Clinton 31%
Joe Lieberman 21%
John Edwards 12%
Howard Dean 4%
Al Sharpton 2%
Other 4%
Undecided 26%

Democratic Primary with neither Gore or Lieberman
Hillary Clinton 42%
John Edwards 17%
Howard Dean 8%
Al Sharpton 4%
Other 5%
Undecided 24%

National Polls:
Al Gore 50%
George W Bush 41%
Undecided/Other 9%

Hillary Clinton 51%
George W Bush 43%
Undecided/Other 6%

Joe Lieberman 51%
George W Bush 40%
Undecided/Other 9%

John Edwards 47%
George W Bush 39%
Undecided/Other 14%

Howard Dean 44%
George W Bush 41%
Undecided/Other 15%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

from: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Speeches_by_Hillary_Rodham_Clinton_in_2007#/media/File:Hillary_speaking_to_supporters,_New_York_(158361702).jpg

February 10th: Hillary Clinton formally announces her Presidential campaign
New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Clinton kicked off her Presidential campaign in New York today as she enters the campaign as one of the front runners for the nomination and a top candidate to unseat President George W Bush. Hillary standing with her husband and former President Bill Clinton promised to return the country to the days of prosperity under President Bill Clinton. Hillary blasted what she called Bush's inaction on issues such affordability, health care the enviroment and social justice. Senator Clinton pledged to run a campaign that will focus on creating a more affordable America while empowering more disadvantaged groups such as women and minorities. 


from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:John_Edwards_presidential_campaign,_2004#/media/File:20031107-john-edwards-nashua-nh_(30953902).jpg

February 27th:North Carolina Senator John Edwards kicks off Presidential campaign in North Carolina:
North Carolina Senator John Edwards kicked off his Presidential campaign today in North Carolina pledging to fight for working and middle class America while blasting the current President for doing too little to help everyday Americans. Senator Edwards pledged to create a universal healthcare system that will help bring healthcare coverage to all Americans. In addition to this John Edwards wants to introduce free college and plans to unveil a policy that will end poverty in 30 years of being implemented.


from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prescription_drug#/media/File:Ritalin-SR-20mg-1000x1000.jpg

March 5th: Republicans unveil prescription drug plan:
President George W Bush along side Congressional Republicans released their plan for Prescription drug reform in the form of Medicare Part D. Part D will expand prescription drug coverage to those under medicare while raising the full benefits retirement age to 67. The plan would also allow full time university and college students without prescription drug coverage to enroll under part D. While Congressional Democrats have called the plan a good first step many are concerned the plan does not allow the federal government with drug companies and the federal governments refusal to open up importation of prescription drugs from countries such as Canada. Their is also opposition among Dems. to raise the full benefits retirement age to 67.