A world without 9/11

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night Coverage Continued
King: Let's look at the Senate Breakdown now. Entering the night the Democratic caucus  held 37 seats including independent Senator Jim Jeffords while Republicans hold 29 seats.

90% Called race
30% Blue or Red too early to call
30% Green Polls are still open in parts of the state
50% Green too close to call

Currently we have 41 seats for the Democratic caucus and 32 seats for Republicans. So far we have no surprises tonight in how races are going.

House

I will spoil the House results because it's easier to reveal everything all at once than bit by bit. I will still continue how I have been doing everything for Governor and Senate. Please note the colors are reversed for this map. Red is Republicans and Blue is Democrats.



Democrats 242 seats (+30)  
Republicans 192 seats (-29)
Independents 1 Seat (-1)

[Elcaspar]

It's so weird seeing the Democrats winning so many seats in the South. Also what does the PV margin look like in the House? Keep up the good work on this TL!

[Pragmatic Conservative]

It's so weird seeing the Democrats winning so many seats in the South. Also what does the PV margin look like in the House? Keep up the good work on this TL!

Thanks!

The PV was Democrats 55% Republicans 44% Other 1%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

8:30 Poll Closing

Blitzer:Polls have now closed in the state of Arkansas and CNN can make the following projections:

Senate:
Mark Pryor elected defeating Incumbent Senator Tim Hutchinson. A key gain for Democrats who are now (+1) on the night. (D-Gain)

Governor:
For Governor the race is too close to call a key battleground race as Incumbent Republican Governor Mike Huckabee is involved in a close race with State Treasure Jimmie Lou Fisher.

We will now head over to John King for a key race alert before heading off to our political panel  for their thoughts on tonight's results so far.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Key Race Alert
King: We will start in Kentucky



Kentucky Senate 63%
Steve Beshear 49.9%
Mitch McConnell 48.7%
Other 1.4%
This race keeps on getting better and better for Steve Beshear who has taken a small lead overall. Jefferson county has finally started to report and with 37% in Beshear leads by 10.7%. Beshear is maintaining his lead in Franklin county (88% in) and Fayette County (57% in). The remaining vote in Central Kentucky and Coal Country should largely cancel each other out. This race will really come down to if Beshear can maintain his margins in Western Kentucky and in the Lexington and Louisville metro regions. Moving on to other races.


Florida Governor 73%
Janet Reno 52.3%
Jeb Bush 46.7%
Other 1%

Florida by far the fastest counting state tonight and so far so good for Democrats who lead by 6.4% and are closing in on a win. Much of the Panhandle is starting to come in and that has yet to really help Republicans, though Bush should get a boost out of Bay and Santa Rosa county which have yet to report. Palm Beach and Miami Dade are close to being all in at 87% and 93% respectively so not much left for Reno their however Broward is only 33% in which should give her an additional boost. Over in Orange county their is 85% in, 75% in Pinellas and 80% in Hillsborough so a small boost in all three counties for Reno. Duval is only 71% in so their is still a bit of vote left for Bush though at this point it really seems to be difficult imagining much of a path to victory for Republicans here.

Over to South Carolina.

 

South Carolina Senate 38%
Alex Sanders 59%
Lindsey Graham 39%
Other 3%

South Carolina Governor 38%
Jim Hodges 61%
Mark Sanford 39%

Similar maps in both races so will look at the Senate map. So far so good but still nothing in from the key Republican counties of Spartanburg and York county this should give Republicans a boost. For Democrats Richland county is 61% in and outpacing the rest of the state. Democrats with a key early lead in Charleston county (just 33% in) and Horry County 40% in. For Republicans Greenville County is just 25% in which will continue to give them a boost. Lexington County is 55% in so far another key Republican county. So far we expect Republicans to continue to narrow this margin, in the end turnout will be the major key here. Over to Georgia now.



Georgia Senate 45%
Max Cleland  49.4%
Saxby Chambliss 48.6%
Other 2%

Georgia Governor 45%
Roy Barnes  50.3%
Sonny Perdue 48.1%
Other 1.6%

Democrats continue to outperform Gore big in the rural regions. In both races Democrats are hitting their bench marks across much of the non Atlanta metro region. We still have only early voting in Atlanta though Democrats have a strong early lead in both Fulton and Dekalb county. Chambliss leads the early vote in both Gwinnett and Cobb county while Barnes leads the early vote in Cobb.


 

[Arson Plus]

I reckon that Cleland would win without the Saxby ad.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night Coverage Continued

Lin: "So far so good for Democrats", that seems to be the theme of the night so far. Already at plus 1 in the Senate. Democrats look like they are on track to make a second pickup tonight in New Hampshire and are very much in contention for at least 3-4 more pickups from states that have seen their polls close so far. On the Governor side Democrats look on track to pickup the state of Florida a big political and symbolic victory if they can pull it out. So I will start with Robert where can Republicans start to turn this night around and what at this point would look like a win for Republicans based on what we have seen so far?

Novak:Well as I have said before tonight is certainly far from set in stone. I will acknowledge things are not going our way right now in some races such as down in Florida, though I am not ready to concede that we can't win several of these battleground races. Kentucky and Georgia are very tight and we will need to wait a while to see how those race turn out, over in South Carolina their still is significant Republican areas that have yet to report so I am not giving up on either race yet and we still don't have much in for either Missouri or Tennessee.It is natural for the Presidents party to lose a few Senate seats and that is what is unfortunately happening so far but I believe we can definitely salvage a few tossup races tonight and set ourselves well for 2004 and heck we can still run the table and win the Senate tonight. I think it is too soon to talk about what a victory is we just need to focus on winning as many races as we can.

Carlson: Well I certainly don't believe in celebrating too early but I definitely like what I am seeing so far from many of these races. We are getting great turnout in Louisville and across Western Kentucky and should hold on to the lead their. I like what I am seeing in rural Georgia and some of the traditionally Republican Atlanta suburbs no were not going to win many of those suburbs but we are definitely making a major improvement their especially in Cobb County where Roy Barnes leads. Yes we still need to see more of the vote from South Carolina to draw any hard conclusions but we are getting the turnout we need to win both these races from our strong areas. Plus were making huge inroads in the coastal region of the state, were beating Clinton's numbers in some of those counties. Over in North Carolina we are seeing great things from much of the traditionally Dem. rural regions and the Research Triangle both turnout and margin wise.

O’Beirne: To answer the opening question I to like Robert am not ready to throw in the towel we still have a great shot to win at least some of these tossup races. We still just have the early vote from the Atlanta Suburbs the election day vote should help us out here plus we have several rural Northern counties that should should come in for us, neither race is lost for us yet. Over in South Carolina as has been mentioned before we still have a bunch of outstanding votes their that will dramatically close the gap. As for North Carolina that will be a tough race but I believe very much that we can pull out a victory their. In Missouri I am hearing good news about rural turnout.

Lin:I have to interrupt you their because I am told our decision desk is set to make a major projection.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

CNN Projection:
Blitzer: CNN can make the following projection:



In Florida former Bill Clinton Attorney General Janet Reno will defeat incumbent Governor Jeb Bush for a major political and symbolic victory in the state of Florida. We will now head quickly over to John King who has a quick round up of the outstanding races. Right after we will head for break before returning for our 9 PM projections. 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night Coverage Continued

John King: Thanks Wolf a big win for Democrats in what was the decisive state two years ago in giving the Presidency to Republicans, now Democrats have defeated the President's brother in his own re-election bid in what has turned into a good night for Florida Democrats. Democrats have made a multi seat net gain in the house including defeating former Florida SOS Katherine Harris who was running in the open Florida-13 district which was previously Republican held. Anyway let's move on to look at the races that have yet to be decided:  

We won't have time to look at any county maps right now, but we may take a closer examination of some of these races after the top of the hour.

Senate big Board:

Kentucky Senate 67%
Steve Beshear 50.1%
Mitch McConnell 48.6%
Other 1.3%

Virginia Senate 57%
John Warner 52.8%
Creigh Deeds 44.9%
Other 2.3%

South Carolina Senate 43%
Alex Sanders 57.2%
Lindsey Graham 40.5%
Other 2.3%

Georgia Senate 50%
Max Cleland  49.9%
Saxby Chambliss 48.3%
Other 1.8%

New Hampshire Senate 47%
Jeanne Shaheen 54%
John E Sununu 44%
Other 2%

North Carolina Senate 30%
Erskine Bowles  52.9%
Elizabeth Dole  46%
Other 1.9%

Missouri Senate 10%
Jean Carnahan 53%
Jim Talent   45%
Other 3%

New Jersey Senate 10%
Robert Torricelli 50%
Doug Forrester  46%
Other 4%

Oklahoma Senate 15%
Jim Inhofe 52%
Creigh Deeds 42%
Other 6%

Tennessee Senate 25%
Bob Clement  53%
Lamar Alexander 45%
Other 2%

Ok Democrats at 43 Senate seats currently, need 8 more victories to maintain control of the chamber. Not many changes for Kentucky, Georgia or South Carolina since we last looked. Warner who is outperforming his past performance in the rural areas by a good 10% on average appears to be on track to victory their. We will wait for a bit more of Northern Virginia to report before calling this race but Warner is doing much better in urban Virginia than the Republican performance in last years Governor race.New Hampshire is still looking strong for Democrats I would expect this race to be called soon for them. The urban regions are over reporting the rural regions currently in North Carolina  though Democrats still have some strength in the rural areas,  I would expect this margin to narrow as the night goes on. We have a good mix of results in Missouri but not enough in to draw too many major conclusions. In both New Jersey I would expect both results to trend towards the incumbent based on the current Republican and Democrat counting biases in both states respectively. In Tennessee East Tennessee is under reporting West Tennessee thus we should probably see this race narrow in favor of the Republicans.    

Governor Big Board

South Carolina Governor 43%
Jim Hodges 60%
Mark Sanford 40%

Vermont Governor 45%
Doug Racine 48.1%
Jim Douglas 45.4%
Other 6.5%

Georgia Governor 50%
Roy Barnes  50.7%
Sonny Perdue 47.8%
Other 1.5%

Alabama Governor 20%
Bob Riley 50.7%
Don Siegelman 48%
Other 1.3%

Illinois Governor 15%
Jim Ryan 50%
Rod Blagojevich  47%
Other 3%

Maine Governor 20%
John Baldacci 50%
Peter Cianchette 40%
Other 10%

Maryland Governor 15%
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend  56%
Bob Ehrlich 43%
Other 1%

Massachusetts Governor 20%
Mitt Romney  48.2%
Shannon O'Brien  47.7%
Other 4.1%

Oklahoma Governor 15%
Brad Henry  49%
Steve Largent 37%
Other 14%

Rhode Island Governor 20%
Donald Carcieri  54%
Myrth York 46%

Tennessee Governor 25%
Phil Bredesen  56%
Van Hilleary  43%
Other 1%

So several races have counting biases currently so we will have to check back a little later for more meaningful results. Democratic areas are currently over reporting in Maryland, Tennessee, Oklahoma and South Carolina. Republican areas are over reporting in Alabama, Massachusetts and Illinois. As for the other races Vermont looks likely to head to a legislature vote while Democrats and Republicans have a decent lead in Maine and Rhode Island respectively. We will now take a commercial break before heading over to the 9:00 PM projections.

[Roll Roons]

NOOOOO not Jeb!

[BigVic]

Blue wave in ‘02. Privatisation of Social Security is hurting Bush ITTL

[Pragmatic Conservative]

9:00 PM Poll Closings

Editors Note: Please note I accidentally put New Mexico as Safe D when it should have been Safe R for the popular incumbent Republican Senator. I have since retroactively changed the race in my previous race ratings.  

Blitzer:Polls have now closed in New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and the rest of Texas as well as Kansas. CNN can make the following projections:

Senate:
Colorado: Too close to call
Kansas: Pat Roberts re-elected (R-Hold)
Louisiana: Too early to call with Mary Landrieu in the lead and around the 50% mark to avoid a runoff.
Michigan: Carl Levin re-elected (D-Hold)
Minnesota: Too early to call with Walter Mondale in the lead
Nebraska: Chuck Hagel re-elected (R-Hold)
New Mexico: Pete Domenici re-elected (R-Hold)
South Dakota: Too early to call with Tim Johnson in the lead
Texas:Too close to call
Wyoming: Mike Enzi re-elected (R-Hold)

From earlier we can project:
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe re-elected (R-Hold)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen elected (D-Gain)

Governor:
Arizona: Too close to call
Colorado: Bill Owens re-elected (R-Hold)
Kansas:Kathleen Sebelius elected (D-Gain)
Michigan: Too early to call with Jennifer Granholm in the lead
Minnesota: Too close to call
Nebraska: Mike Johanns re-elected (R-Hold)
New Mexico: Bill Richardson elected (D-Gain)
New York: George Pataki re-elected (R-Hold)
South Dakota:Too early to call with Mike Rounds in the lead
Texas: Rick Perry re-elected (R-Hold)
Wisconsin: Too close to call
Wyoming: Too close to call

We will next take a look at where we stand for our senate and Governor races before we head to our panel on their thoughts on tonight's results.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night Coverage Continued
King: Let's look at the Senate Breakdown now. The Democratic caucus now up to 44 seats seats to 37 seats for Republicans.

90% Called race
30% Blue or Red too early to call
50% Green too close to call

If we give Democrats Iowa and Montana (rated Safe D) than Republicans would need to take all the tossup seats and 2 seats that are too early to call for Democrats if they hope to win control of the Senate, something that seems increasingly unlikely as the night goes on. Democrats meanwhile have an outside shot at a filibuster proof majority if they clean swept all the tossup seats plus Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, New Jersey and Louisiana. In such a scenario Democrats could get to 60 seats by winning either Virginia or Oregon.

Moving on to the Governors races:

90% Called race
30% Blue or Red too early to call
50% Green too close to call

Much more uncertainty on the Governor side. Democrats are at 14 Governors mansion to 11 for the Republican.

Let's head back to our panel.

(I will post some maps for completed races next.)

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night Coverage Continued

Please note I am excluding maps for races with only one major candidate

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night Coverage Continued

Lin: So a major victory for Democrats in the Florida Governor race as well as a multiple house seat pickup by Democrats in the state. How significant of a victory is this for Democrats and what can this tell us for 2004? Will start with Al who has not talked in a while.

Hunt: Well I certainly don't want to pretend that tonight means Florida has become a Dem. state or were for sure going to win here in 2004 but I do think it vary much suggests the closeness of 2000 was not a one time thing and Democrats have a very good chance at victory here in 04 in both the Presidential race and Senate race. More concerning for Republicans has to be the negative affect social security reform had on tonight races, whether or not that is a one time thing remains to be seen but it is clear Republican took a major hit in the retirement communities.

Novak:Well tonight's results certainly are concerning to an extent but I don't think social security reform is really going to impact future elections nor do I believe Florida is becoming a Democratic state. As we have seen past midterm results have not had that much predictive value for future Presidential elections so I don't think we can read into what is going to happen in 2004 from what is happening tonight so far besides that Florida is likely to be competitive again in 2004 which is not something that I think should be a huge shock to anyone.

Carlson:Well I agree with Robert that partial privatization of social security probably won't hurt Republicans in future elections outside of tonight unless they are foolish enough to try and push through partial privatization again in the future but I do think the general trend we have seen in many urban and suburban areas in both Florida and many other areas of the country should very much concern Republicans. In many races we have seen Democratic candidates significantly outpace Gore in the rural ancestrally Dem. rural areas in some cases coming close to Clinton margins while continuing the trend that Bill Clinton seemingly started of Dems. doing better and better in urban areas. We saw that in last years elections in New Jersey and Virginia as well as in many states this year. In Florida Democarts swept most of the urban counties while winning several up state rural Bush counties that went for Clinton. In Georgia were seeing Democrats similarly sweeping much of Southern Georgia while winning by huge margins in Fulton and Dekalb county along with seemingly narrowing GOP margins in the normally strongly Republican suburbs. Over in South Carolina the same thing with Democrats leading in Charleston and Horry county. It's the same story in many states and really has to be a top level concern for Republicans who are seemingly bleeding support in both directions.

O’Beirne:Well it is easy for Democrats to build this big unsustainable coalition when they can run against the President without presenting a bunch of ideas themselves. In 2004 Democrats are going to have to present their own ideas and are naturally going to find it tough to build some super bilateral rural-urban coalition like they are tonight. I am not a big believer in midterm elections being that predictive we have seen so in the past large waves do not translate to victories 2 years down the road. I trust this President will learn from what went wrong tonight and will win back the hearts of the American people whom will get to see a stark contrast of ideas from President Bush and whomever the Democrats nominate.

Hunt: Well polling didn't seem to matter for Republicans when it came to partial privatization of social security, they tried to push the plan through regardless of how popular it was. Look I am certainly willing to accept that President Bush could triangulate and win another term but it is true things aren't looking good for him at this moment.

Novak:Well I have to agree with Kate that it will be a stark contrast in 2004 between President Bush and whomever Democrats nominate, it's not going to be as simple as Democrats running on some generic anti Bush agenda they'll have to put across a platform to sell to the American people.

Lin: I am told we are ready for another projection from the decision desk. We will of course be back later this hour for more discussion from the panel.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

CNN Projection:



Blitzer: CNN can project that Democratic Congressman John Baldacci will be elected elected the next Governor of Maine. A key pickup in another Northeastern Governor race for Democrats. We will now send it back to John King who has some updates on some key races we are watching before returning to the panel for their thoughts on tonight's races.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night Coverage Continued

King: Let's take a look at a few of the other battleground states that we haven't taken that close of a look at so far. We have a chance to look at the big board and other close races later on this evening. Will start over in the open seat race in Texas which is the senate race with the third highest amount of spending in it.



Teaxs Senate 29%
Ron Kirk 51.9%
John Cornyn 47.7%
Other 0.5%

Republicans have to be a bit nervous about this race right now. Kirk preforming well in his home county of Dallas leading by 14, while trailing by 4 in neighboring Tarrant county. Kirk leads by 25 in Travis county, 9 in Harris county and 3 in Fort Bend county. John Cornyn still very much in though, see several of those blank counties many of those outside of the southern portion of the state will go Republican further bolstering his totals, further were seeing urban areas significantly outpace their rural counterparts in counting their votes.

Moving on to North Carolina.


North Carolina Senate 44%
Erskine Bowles  52.8%
Elizabeth Dole  46%
Other 2%

Similar pattern to Florida in a lot of ways voting wise. Democrats sweeping many of the urban counties by varying margins while picking off significant numbers of rural counties. Urban areas are still outpacing rural areas of the state but if Republican can't improve their standing dramatically in the rural areas areas than this is very likely pickup #3 for Democrats.

We will lastly take a look at Virginia quickly




Virginia Senate 69%
John Warner 52.5%
Creigh Deeds 45.2%
Other 2.3%

Warner trailing in Prince William and Fairfax counties by smallish margins but ahead in Loudoun by 12%, still underwhelming from what Republicans used to get in this area of the state. Down state in the tidewater region Warner is leading by 13% in Virginia Beach while trailing by 2 in Chesapeake City. Going up to Richmond Deeds leads by 40 their and and by 1 in suburban Henrico County. Warner meanwhile leads by 13% in Chesterfield county. Based on the general margins and turnout patterns we believe Warner is likely to hold on but it should still be a close race.

 
We will send it back to the panel for their thoughts on tonight's races.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night Continued

Lin:Not surprising news out of Maine as Democrats gain another Governors mansion but we may have a close race in Texas, which was one of the most expensive Senate races this year. So will start here: How would you rate Ron Kirk's chances right now based on what we have in? Will start with Robert.

Novak: Well I must say I’m still not all that concerned about Texas so far tonight. We are seeing the urban vote being over represented in the results so far and I believe as more Republican areas catch up in their reporting than Republicans will pull ahead. Someone like Kirk is simply too liberal for the south or Texas.

Hunt: Look I don’t expect Kirk to win this one but I think your still dismissing his chances far too quickly. Look at his results in places like Fort Bend and Harris county; outperforming Bush by 24 and 29 points respectively. Regardless this should be a concerning sign for Republicans in what is the Presidents home state and what is recently a strongly Republican state.

O’Beirne: As was said before midterm elections simply aren’t that predictive of the next Presidential election. We saw painfully how 1994 didn’t lead to Republican victory in 1996 or thankfully how a great Democratic year in 1986 didn’t lead to a victory in the presidential race in 1988 for them. It’s of course too early to predict anything for 2004 but I believe this President will rebound in popularity.

Carlson: Look no one is saying Bush is doomed but if Republicans fail to learn from their mistakes than their is little reason to think 2004 will be much better than tonight. Currently Republicans are seeing defections in both traditionally Republican suburban/urban areas to Democrats something that hasn’t just started tonight while losing some of the gains they have made in traditionally Democratic rural regions. Republicans need to reverse at least one of these trends if they hope for electoral victory in 2004.

Novak: Democrats are going to struggle to appeal to both groups when they have to craft a message that’s not simply just anti Bush.

Hunt: It’s not as difficult as you make it out to be to appeal to both groups you know. After all Republicans did all right in both suburbs and rural regions in 2000.

O’Beirne: Of course Democrats can hold on to some gains in both regions but their is certainly a difference between rural and urban issues that makes it challenging for Democrats to come up with a detailed platform and appease all the same people that they are winning tonight.

Lin: We have to head off to commercial break where we will come back for a look at are big board before heading off for our 10:00 PM projections. 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night Coverage Continued

John King: Thanks Lin! Certainly some interesting discussions will ensue from tonight’s results.  Anyway let's move on to look at the races that have yet to be decided:  

We won't have time to look at any county maps right now, but we may take a closer examination of some of these races after the top of the hour.

Senate big Board:

Kentucky Senate 86%
Steve Beshear 50.7%
Mitch McConnell 48%
Other 1.4%

Virginia Senate 75%
John Warner 52%
Creigh Deeds 45.8%
Other 2.1%

South Carolina Senate 60%
Alex Sanders 55%
Lindsey Graham 42.8%
Other 2.2%

Georgia Senate 63%
Max Cleland  51%
Saxby Chambliss 47.1%
Other 1.9%

North Carolina Senate 52%
Erskine Bowles  52.4%
Elizabeth Dole  46.3%
Other 1.3%

Missouri Senate 40%
Jean Carnahan 52.1%
Jim Talent   46%
Other 1.9%

New Jersey Senate 45%
Robert Torricelli 53%
Doug Forrester  43%
Other 4%

Tennessee Senate 50%
Bob Clement  51.7%
Lamar Alexander 46.7%
Other 1.6%

Texas Senate 38%
Ron Kirk 51.3%
John Cornyn 48%
Other 0.7%

South Dakota Senate 25%
Tim Johnson 55%
John Thune 44%
Other 1%

Minnesota Senate 30%
Walter Mondale 56%
Norm Coleman 40%
Other 4%

Colorado Senate 35%
Wayne Allard 50.1%
Tom Strickland 47%
Other 2.9%

Louisiana Senate 35%
Mary Landrieu 47.6%
Suzanne Haik Terrell  29.1%
Other Republicans 20.3%
Other Democrats 1.1%
Other 1%

Ok Democrats at 44 Senate seats currently, need 7 more victories to maintain control of the chamber; assuming Democrats hold on to Iowa and Montana than they need to win just 5 of the above seats assuming Republicans hold on in Oregon, Idaho and Alaska. New Jersey looks safe for Democrats as more of the vote comes in. In Louisiana the big race is to see if Landrieu can get over 50% to avoid a runoff; I would put her odds at slightly above 50% currently as much of Orleans Parrish is yet to report. Over in Kentucky and Georgia Democrats are solidifying their lead. South Dakota and Minnesota have Democratic counting biases so we will have to wait a bit to see if those leads will hold. The good news for Republicans is they do appear to be holding on in Virginia. We have other tight races in Colorado, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, North Carolina and Missouri.

Governor Big Board

South Carolina Governor 60%
Jim Hodges 57.9%
Mark Sanford 42.1%

Vermont Governor 67%
Doug Racine 47.8%
Jim Douglas 45.7%
Other 6.5%

Georgia Governor 63%
Roy Barnes  52%
Sonny Perdue 46.5%
Other 1.5%

Alabama Governor 44%
Bob Riley 49.5%
Don Siegelman 49%
Other 1.5%

Illinois Governor 40%
Rod Blagojevich  51.7%
Jim Ryan 46%
Other 2.3%

Maryland Governor 35%
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend  54%
Bob Ehrlich 45%
Other 1%

Massachusetts Governor 49%
Shannon O'Brien  48.9%
Mitt Romney  47.7%
Other 4.3%

Oklahoma Governor 40%
Brad Henry  47%
Steve Largent 39%
Other 14%

Rhode Island Governor 43%
Donald Carcieri  53.6%
Myrth York 46.4%

Tennessee Governor 50%
Phil Bredesen  55%
Van Hilleary  44%
Other 1%

Michigan Governor 45%
Jennifer Granholm  49.3%
Dick Posthumus  49%
Other 1.7%

Minnesota Governor 30%
Roger Moe 43%
Tim Pawlenty  34%
Tim Penny 20%
Other 3%

South Dakota Governor 25%
Mike Rounds 52%
Jim Abbott  46%
Other 2%

Wisconsin Governor 20%
Scott McCallum  49%
Jim Doyle  38%
Ed Thompson 11%
Other 2%

Wyoming Governor 20%
Dave Freudenthal  51%
Eli Bebout  47%
Other 2%

Ok so things are looking tight in Alabama, Wyoming, Massachusetts and Tennessee. Over in South Dakota we have a Democratic counting bias so Republicans are looking good their. Over in Michigan the same is true for Democrats who are ahead despite the Republican counting bias in the state. Wisconsin and Minnesota have Republican and Democratic counting biases respectively so we will have to wait a bit before making projections in those states. We will now take a commercial break before heading over to the 10:00 PM projections.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

10:00 PM Poll Closings

Blitzer:Polls have now closed in Iowa, Montana, Utah and Nevada plus parts of Idaho. CNN can make the following projections:

Senate:
Iowa:Tom Harkin re-elected (D-Hold)
Montana:Max Baucus re-elected (D-Hold)
 
From earlier we can project:
New Jersey: Robert Torricelli re-elected (D-Hold)
Virginia: John Warner re-elected (R-Hold)

Governor:
Iowa:Tom Vilsack re-elected (D-Hold)
Nevada:Kenny Guinn re-elected (R-Hold)

From earlier we can project:
Georgia: Roy Barnes re-elected (D-Hold)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds elected (R-Hold)


We will next take a look at where we stand for our senate and Governor races before we head to John King for a deeper look at some of the uncalled races.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night Continued

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night Coverage Continued
King: Let's look at the Senate Breakdown now. The Democratic caucus now up to 47 seats seats to 38 seats for Republicans.

90% Called race
30% Blue or Red too early to call
50% Green too close to call
30% Green polls closed in part of the state

Republicans would need to take all the tossup seats and 1 seats that is too early to call for the Democrats if they hope to win control of the Senate, something that seems increasingly unlikely as the night goes on.

Moving on to the Governors races:

90% Called race
30% Blue or Red too early to call
50% Green too close to call

Much more uncertainty on the Governor side. Democrats are at 17 Governors mansion to 13 for the Republican.

Let's now take a deeper look at some of the uncalled races.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night Continued

King: Let's start in Tennessee

 

Tennessee Senate 54%
Bob Clement  51.4%
Lamar Alexander 47.1%
Other 1.5%



This race continues to tighten as more of eastern Tennessee comes in including heavily Republican Knox and Hamilton County. However the good news for Democrats we have nothing yet in from Shelby county which should give them a small boost assuming we see a similar trend in it as we are seeing in other large urban counties across the country. The remaining counties that have yet to report are mostly split into Democratic counties out west and Republican counties out east.

Moving on to South Carolina



South Carolina Senate 69%
Alex Sanders 53.5%
Lindsey Graham 44.1%
Other 2.4%

Republicans continuing to close the gap but are they running out of votes?
Let's take a look in the more urban Republican counties:

In York County Graham leads by 10 with 75% reporting so some vote left up their. In nearby Grenville county 65% reporting and Graham is up by 22.5% so a bit more out their. In Anderson county we have 80% in which Graham leads by 18% so again not many but at least a few votes out for Republicans. For Democrats Richland county is 90% in so much vote left their. Down in Charleston where Sanders has a small lead we have 60% in. Similar story in Horry County with 65% reporting.

Ok I am told that CNN has another projection to make.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

CNN Projection:



Blitzer: CNN can project US Senator Max Cleland will be re-elected. This is a critical hold for Democrats who are just 3 seats away from holding on to Senate control for another two years. I will pass it back to John King for analysts of the implications of this race and and in depth look at Colorado and Missouri. 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night Continued
King: Thanks Wolf a major hold indeed, this all but ends the chances of a Republican senate at this point but more importantly shows the South is indeed still a battleground region. Now let’s take a look at Missouri and Colorado. Democrats can hold the senate without winning a single tossup race as long as they sweep all three races which lean towards them.



Missouri Senate 52%
Jean Carnahan 52.1%
Jim Talent   45.9%
Other 1.9%

Things are continuing to look better for Democrats here as more of the vote comes streaming in. Over in St Louis City we have 85% in so not much more in their, however in good news for Carnahan St Louis County is just 50% in, over in Jackson county we have 66% in. The only real wild card appeals to be we have nothing in for Republican St Charles county. Outside of this Carnahan is doing what she needs to do to be re-elected

Now on to Colorado:


Colorado Senate 48%
Wayne Allard 48.5% (+1020)
Tom Strickland 48.5%
Other 2.9%

Incumbent Senator Wayne Allard holding on to a very small lead with close to half the vote in. Currently in Denver we have 67% of the vote in, 40% in for Adams county and 37% in for Arapahoe county; so a fair amount of votes for Strickland over their. In Jefferson county which is neck and neck we have 55% in. Meanwhile in Republican Douglas county we have 60% in and in Weld county we have 70% in plus we have 65% in El Paso county. Allard however can count in some votes from Larimer county which has yet to report however Strickland can count oh Boulder county which has yet to report.

Now we will turn to our panel for their thoughts on tonight’s results.