A Very Close 1988 Election
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Author Topic: A Very Close 1988 Election  (Read 3185 times)
538Electoral
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« on: July 03, 2019, 09:15:46 PM »


Bush wins the presidency with 273 electoral votes. Colorado was the deciding state, Going to Bush by 0.40%.

Dukakis gets 265 electoral votes.

This was the first election since 1888, Exactly 100 years ago, That the winner lost the popular vote. Dukakis won the popular vote 49.4-49.1%.

Senate elections went the same as in real life, But with Democrats winning Wyoming, Washington and Florida.
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Morgan Kingsley
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« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2019, 06:26:52 AM »
Is this a timeline or a random scenario
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #2 on: July 04, 2019, 10:38:42 AM »
Quote from: morgankingsley on July 04, 2019, 06:26:52 AM
Is this a timeline or a random scenario

Looks like a random scenario to me.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
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« Reply #3 on: July 04, 2019, 02:23:53 PM »

I'll wait and if it's just a random scenario, I'll move it to past elections.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #4 on: July 04, 2019, 04:32:44 PM »
I plan on making a timeline, Set to go from 1988 to 2000 or something.

Nothing exciting happens in 1989 or the first half of 1990

In the 1990 senate like our real timeline, Only one seat flips. Republicans hold Minnesota and pick up New Jersey.

It's now 1991. Dukakis decides to make a second run for president.

Here's how polls look like in swing states as of January 1991

California: Dukakis+3
Colorado: Bush+1
Connecticut: Bush+2
Delaware: Bush+4
Illinois: Dukakis+1
Indiana: Bush+5
Iowa: Dukakis+3
Michigan: Tied
Missouri: Bush+1
New Jersey: Bush+1
New Mexico: Tied
Ohio: Tied
Oregon: Dukakis+4
Pennsylvania: Dukakis+2
Vermont: Bush+1
Washington: Dukakis+2
West Virginia: Dukakis+6
Wisconsin: Dukakis+3
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538Electoral
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« Reply #5 on: July 05, 2019, 05:58:31 AM »
Nothing special happens in February 1991. Here's polling for this month in the battlegrounds for this election.

California: Dukakis+2
Colorado: Tied
Connecticut: Bush+3
Delaware: Bush+2
Illinois: Dukakis+2
Indiana: Bush+4
Iowa: Dukakis+3
Michigan: Bush+1
Missouri: Tied
New Jersey: Bush+2
New Mexico: Dukakis+1
Ohio: Dukakis+1
Oregon: Dukakis+2
Pennsylvania: Tied
Vermont: Bush+1
Washington: Dukakis+1
West Virginia: Dukakis+4
Wisconsin: Dukakis+3

National polls: Bush 48.2%, Dukakis 48.1%
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538Electoral
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« Reply #6 on: July 05, 2019, 06:09:31 AM »
March 1991: Joe Biden decides to run again. Polling at this time show Dukakis being favored to win the nomination over Biden.

Dukakis: 55%
Biden: 44%

March polling for general election against Bush. (Both Dukakis and Biden)

California: Dukakis+3
Colorado: Bush+2
Connecticut: Tied
Delaware: Bush+2
Illinois: Dukakis+4
Indiana: Bush+5
Iowa: Dukakis+2
Michigan: Tied
Missouri: Bush+3
New Jersey: Bush+2
New Mexico: Dukakis+3
Ohio: Tied
Oregon: Dukakis+2
Pennsylvania: Tied
Vermont: Bush+1
Washington: Dukakis+3
West Virginia: Dukakis+5
Wisconsin: Dukakis+2

California: Bush+1
Colorado: Bush+3
Connecticut: Biden+2
Delaware: Biden+12
Illinois: Tied
Indiana: Bush+7
Iowa: Bush+1
Michigan: Bush+2
Missouri: Bush+4
New Jersey: Tied
New Mexico: Biden+2
Ohio: Bush+1
Oregon: Bush+1
Pennsylvania: Biden+3
Vermont: Tied
Washington: Biden+2
West Virginia: Biden+2
Wisconsin: Bush+1
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« Reply #7 on: July 05, 2019, 08:06:04 PM »
In March of 1991 Bush should be ahead by at least 25-30 points in the polls unless the Gulf War never happens
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538Electoral
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« Reply #8 on: July 05, 2019, 11:25:01 PM »
Quote from: Old School Republican on July 05, 2019, 08:06:04 PM
In March of 1991 Bush should be ahead by at least 25-30 points in the polls unless the Gulf War never happens

Ah yes. In this scenario, A Democratic controlled congress votes against US participation in the Gulf War. The Gulf War still happens but the US takes no part of it in this scenario.

Result of House and Senate vote about US participation in the Gulf War.

House: 229 against, 206 for.
Senate: 53 against, 47 for.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #9 on: July 05, 2019, 11:31:33 PM »
April 1991: First Iowa Democratic Primary poll is released. Dukakis leads Biden 46-43%

April polling for general election against Bush. (Both Dukakis and Biden)

California: Dukakis+4
Colorado: Bush+1
Connecticut: Bush+1
Delaware: Tied
Illinois: Dukakis+3
Indiana: Bush+4
Iowa: Dukakis+3
Michigan: Dukakis+1
Missouri: Bush+2
New Jersey: Tied
New Mexico: Bush+1
Ohio: Bush+1
Oregon: Dukakis+3
Pennsylvania: Bush+1
Vermont: Tied
Washington: Dukakis+3
West Virginia: Dukakis+3
Wisconsin: Dukakis+4

California: Tied
Colorado: Bush+4
Connecticut: Biden+3
Delaware: Biden+13
Illinois: Dukakis+1
Indiana: Bush+8
Iowa: Bush+3
Michigan: Bush+3
Missouri: Bush+3
New Jersey: Bush+1
New Mexico: Tied
Ohio: Bush+2
Oregon: Tied
Pennsylvania: Bush+1
Vermont: Biden+1
Washington: Biden+2
West Virginia: Bush+1
Wisconsin: Tied
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538Electoral
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« Reply #10 on: July 06, 2019, 11:09:23 AM »
May 1991: Bill Clinton considers a run.

Democratic Primary Polling for this month. (Including Clinton)

Dukakis: 49%
Biden: 38%
Clinton: 13%

May 1991 General Election Polling)

California: Dukakis+3
Colorado: Dukakis+2
Connecticut: Bush+4
Delaware: Bush+1
Illinois: Dukakis+3
Indiana: Bush+3
Iowa: Dukakis+5
Michigan: Bush+3
Missouri: Bush+4
New Jersey: Bush+2
New Mexico: Dukakis+1
Ohio: Tied
Oregon: Dukakis+4
Pennsylvania: Bush+1
Vermont: Bush+3
Washington: Dukakis+3
West Virginia: Bush+1
Wisconsin: Dukakis+5

California: Tied
Colorado: Bush+4
Connecticut: Biden+3
Delaware: Biden+13
Illinois: Dukakis+1
Indiana: Bush+8
Iowa: Bush+3
Michigan: Bush+3
Missouri: Bush+3
New Jersey: Bush+1
New Mexico: Tied
Ohio: Bush+2
Oregon: Tied
Pennsylvania: Bush+1
Vermont: Biden+1
Washington: Biden+2
West Virginia: Bush+1
Wisconsin: Tied

Poll between Clinton and Bush in Arkansas showed Bush very narrowly leading Clinton. 49-48%
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538Electoral
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« Reply #11 on: July 06, 2019, 10:55:30 PM »
June 1991: The economy goes down a tad bit. Hurting Bush slightly.

June 1991 General Election Polling

California: Dukakis+5
Colorado: Dukakis+1
Connecticut: Bush+2
Delaware: Tied
Illinois: Dukakis+2
Indiana: Bush+5
Iowa: Dukakis+7
Michigan: Bush+1
Missouri: Bush+1
New Jersey: Bush+1
New Mexico: Dukakis+3
Ohio: Dukakis+2
Oregon: Dukakis+5
Pennsylvania: Tied
Vermont: Bush+2
Washington: Dukakis+5
West Virginia: Dukakis+1
Wisconsin: Dukakis+6

California: Biden+2
Colorado: Bush+3
Connecticut: Biden+1
Delaware: Biden+20
Illinois: Biden+4
Indiana: Bush+6
Iowa: Bush+1
Michigan: Bush+2
Missouri: Bush+4
New Jersey: Tied
New Mexico: Bush+2
Ohio: Tied
Oregon: Biden+1
Pennsylvania: Tied
Vermont: Biden+1
Washington: Biden+2
West Virginia: Biden+3
Wisconsin: Biden+2
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538Electoral
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« Reply #12 on: July 09, 2019, 11:37:44 AM »
July 1991: Biden drops out after yet another gaffe. Clinton still deciding over whether to challenge Dukakis. The economy goes up and Bush recovers somewhat.


July 1991 General Election Polling

California: Dukakis+4
Colorado: Tied
Connecticut: Bush+1
Delaware: Bush+1
Illinois: Dukakis+3
Indiana: Bush+3
Iowa: Dukakis+3
Michigan: Bush+2
Missouri: Bush+3
New Jersey: Tied
New Mexico: Dukakis+1
Ohio: Bush+1
Oregon: Dukakis+3
Pennsylvania: Bush+2
Vermont: Bush+1
Washington: Dukakis+4
West Virginia: Bush+1
Wisconsin: Dukakis+3
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538Electoral
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« Reply #13 on: July 18, 2019, 02:22:30 AM »
August 1991: Nothing too much happens.

August 1991 Polling

California: Dukakis+3
Colorado: Dukakis+1
Connecticut: Bush+2
Delaware: Dukakis+1
Illinois: Dukakis+1
Indiana: Bush+4
Iowa: Dukakis+4
Michigan: Bush+1
Missouri: Bush+2
New Jersey: Dukakis+1
New Mexico: Dukakis+2
Ohio: Dukakis+1
Oregon: Dukakis+3
Pennsylvania: Tied
Vermont: Bush+1
Washington: Dukakis+5
West Virginia: Bush+1
Wisconsin: Dukakis+2
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UWS
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« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2019, 09:52:47 PM »
It seems that Bush would prefer face Biden in the general election than Dukakis as Biden seems to be weaker than Dukakis in the polls.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #15 on: July 26, 2019, 09:47:11 AM »
September 1991: Bill Clinton decides not to run, Meaning this is a rematch.

September 1991 Polling

California: Dukakis+4
Colorado: Bush+1
Connecticut: Bush+1
Delaware: Dukakis+2
Illinois: Dukakis+3
Indiana: Bush+3
Iowa: Dukakis+2
Michigan: Bush+2
Missouri: Bush+1
New Jersey: Tied
New Mexico: Dukakis+2
Ohio: Dukakis+1
Oregon: Dukakis+4
Pennsylvania: Dukakis+1
Vermont: Bush+2
Washington: Dukakis+4
West Virginia: Bush+2
Wisconsin: Dukakis+1
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Morgan Kingsley
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« Reply #16 on: August 01, 2019, 01:26:08 AM »
Could there possibly be a last minute resurgence candidate? And would people really want to give Dukakis a second chance after losing?
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Plankton5165
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« Reply #17 on: August 01, 2019, 06:42:10 AM »
This result would meddle with bellwether statuses of Illinois, Missouri, and New Mexico.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #18 on: August 05, 2019, 11:12:04 PM »
October 1991 Polling

California: Dukakis+3
Colorado: Tied
Connecticut: Tied
Delaware: Dukakis+1
Illinois: Dukakis+4
Indiana: Bush+5
Iowa: Bush+1
Michigan: Bush+1
Missouri: Tied
New Jersey: Bush+1
New Mexico: Tied
Ohio: Dukakis+2
Oregon: Dukakis+5
Pennsylvania: Dukakis+1
Vermont: Bush+2
Washington: Dukakis+5
West Virginia: Bush+3
Wisconsin: Bush+1
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Morgan Kingsley
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« Reply #19 on: August 06, 2019, 03:13:16 AM »
Bush leading in West Virginia seems impossible
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Orwell
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« Reply #20 on: August 06, 2019, 07:33:53 AM »
Quote from: morgankingsley on August 06, 2019, 03:13:16 AM
Bush leading in West Virginia seems impossible

Dukakis won it in 1988 by 5 so I don't see why Bush would win it in 1992
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538Electoral
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« Reply #21 on: September 02, 2019, 12:33:30 PM »
I'm back to continue with this scenario. We're going to cut to the election.

Dukakis wins a very narrow victory over Bush. Dukakis picked Jesse Jackson as his running mate.

Dukakis/Jackson: 274 EV's, 50.4%
Bush/Quayle: 264 EV's, 48.1%





Close states

States decided by under 1%

Missouri, 0.16%
Ohio, 0.21% (tipping point state)
New Jersey, 0.35%
West Virginia, 0.57%
Colorado, 0.82%

States decided by between 1-5%

Pennsylvania, 1.15%
Delaware, 1.29%
Maine's 1st congressional district, 1.46%
Arkansas, 1.69%
Nevada, 1.86%
Michigan, 1.95%
New Mexico, 2.08%
Wisconsin, 2.65%
Iowa, 2.79%
Indiana, 3.06%
Florida, 3.10%
North Carolina, 3.21%
Connecticut, 3.35%
Louisiana, 3.67%
Tennessee, 3.91%
Vermont, 4.56%

States decided by between 5-10%

California, 5.59%
Minnesota, 6.04%
Montana, 6.15%
Kentucky, 6.58%
Virginia, 7.05%
Oregon, 8.79%
Washington, 9.11%
Maine, 9.50%
New Hampshire, 9.78%
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Morgan Kingsley
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« Reply #22 on: September 02, 2019, 08:04:34 PM »
Why was the election so close here
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538Electoral
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« Reply #23 on: September 03, 2019, 10:39:45 PM »
November 1996

House of Representatives: Republican
Senate: Republican
Dukakis Approval Rating: 52%
Republican Candidate: John McCain
Running Mate: Pat Robertson



Dukakis/Jackson: 292 EV's, 51.5%
McCain/Robertson: 246 EV's, 48.4%

In yet another close race, Dukakis wins re-election. He lost New Mexico and West Virginia while picking up New Jersey, Maine's 1st congressional district and even upset McCain in Indiana.

New Jersey was the tipping point state. It went Dukakis by 2.28%.

Close Dukakis wins

Indiana, 0.55%
New Jersey, 2.28%
Ohio, 2.68%
Wisconsin, 2.79%
Maine's 1st congressional district, 2.97%
Pennsylvania, 3.31%
Michigan, 3.47%
Vermont, 3.66%
Delaware, 4.12%
Minnesota, 4.72%
Iowa, 4.82%

Close McCain wins

West Virginia, 0.43%
Florida, 0.58%
Missouri, 0.83%
New Mexico, 1.22%
Nevada, 1.52%
North Carolina, 1.76%
Maine, 2.04%
Arkansas, 2.36%
Virginia, 2.65%
Colorado, 3.00%
Montana, 3.43%
New Hampshire, 3.59%
Louisiana, 4.02%
Georgia, 4.37%
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538Electoral
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« Reply #24 on: September 06, 2019, 12:29:03 AM »
2000 early battleground map.

Dukakis approval rating (January 1999): 46%



Can anyone guess which party wins and the map?
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