OCT. 11, 1980
UPI survey shows Reagan way ahead
Ronald Reagan would defeat President Carter easily if the voting were held now with likely wins in the vital industrial states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and New Jersey, a UPI survey showed Saturday.
UPI political writers in each state assessed candidate standings based on interviews with key politicians and office-holders, and concluded Reagan would carry 34 states with 365 electoral votes.
They found Carter would carry just 10 states and the District of Columbia with 121 electoral votes. Six states with 52 electoral votes were rated tossups. Independent candidate John Anderson carried no state, though he was close in Connecticut.
The survey showed Reagan has improved his position from a month ago when he had 30 states and 323 electoral votes to Carter's 15 and the District of Columbia with 128 electoral votes. Five states with 87 electoral votes were rated as tossups in the previous UPI survey.
The new survey shows Reagan making a strong attack on Carter's southern base, with Alabama and Louisiana slipping from 'leaning Carter' to 'leaning Reagan,' and Florida moving from a tossup state into the Reagan column. Reagan already was rated ahead in Mississippi and Virginia. South Carolina and Tennessee were tossups in both surveys.
But more important, Reagan now leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania, which were rated tossups in the last survey, while holding his lead in Michigan, Illinois and New Jersey.
The news was not all bad for Carter: New York swung into his column, and the race still is tight in many big northern states Carter must win to stay in the White House.
In addition, while Massachusetts and Connecticut were in the tossup column because of a heavy Anderson vote, there were indications support for the independent candidate was slipping as traditional Democrats returned to the fold.
Reagan, meanwhile, carried every state in the West except Hawaii. He appeared to be beating back Carter hopes of breaking through in states like Washington, Oregon and New Mexico.
By region, here is the UPI state-by-state survey:
NEW ENGLAND - Politically split, with conservatives against Carter in smaller rural states and Anderson depriving him of votes in the bigger industrial states.
ConnecticutTossup. Reagan, Carter and Anderson camps agree the state is 'up for grabs.' One recent poll showed Reagan at 29 percent, Carter 28 percent and Anderson 27 percent.
Maine Reagan holds a slim lead that could melt with vocal support for Carter from Secretary of State Edmund Muskie.
Massachusetts Tossup. A recent poll showed Reagan favored by 27 percent, Carter by 26 percent and Anderson by 24 percent. If Anderson fades, Carter should win.
New Hampshire Strong Reagan. State GOP chairman Carroll Jones said in a three-way race, Reagan still will get a majority.
Rhode Island Carter has increased his lead slightly. But his coordinator, Bob McGrath, says he thinks it will get closer in the next two weeks.
Vermont Leaning Reagan. Carter has picked up ground here, and hopes to close in by election day but Vermont has gone Democratic in a presidential race only in 1964.
INDUSTRIAL NORTHEAST - Carter has pulled into a lead in New York, and is moving in on Reagan in New Jersey, but Reagan is ahead in Pennsylvania, a key state in Carter's 1976 victory.
New York Carter probably would win New York by about 250,000 votes. One unpublished poll gives Carter 43 percent, Reagan 39, Anderson 18 and falling.
Pennsylvania Leaning Reagan. A recent Gallup poll gave Reagan 40 percent with 33 percent for Carter and 16 percent for Anderson. Carter trails badly in the economically hard-hit coal regions of northeast Pennsylvania and that could mean the difference.
New Jersey Leaning Reagan. Reagan led Carter by 5 percent in the respected Rutgers University-based Eagleton poll, with a whopping 21 percent for Anderson clearly the difference.
THE BORDER STATES - Delaware, Kentucky and Tennessee unexpectedly are turning into key 1980 battlegrounds while West Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia are holding for Carter.
Delaware A tossup. Carter held a slight edge last month, but Reagan is gaining in one state where Anderson voters are turning to Republicans instead of to Carter.
District of Columbia Even the local GOP chairman thinks Carter will win, but he expects Reagan to do better than Ford's 18 percent in 1976.
Maryland This strongly Democratic state is in the Carter column, but his support in the ethnic blue collar wards of Baltimore where elections are won is considered soft.
Kentucky Another tossup.
Tennessee It's dead even in a state Carter carried easily four years ago. Says one Carter campaign worker, 'I'm working my butt off for Carter, but it's tough.'
West Virginia Carter favored over Reagan. Latest poll has Democrat Jay Rockefeller over Republican ex-Gov. Arch Moore by 11 points. Same poll a month ago had Rockefeller ahead by 15.
THE SOUTH - Carter carried all but Virginia four years ago, but now could lose Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, and Louisiana as well.
VirginiaCarter has cut Reagan's lead in half in the last six weeks, but is still about 6 points behind. Reagan is popular among conservatives in the state he has adopted as his eastern home.
North Carolina 'We admit being behind,' says Reagan state campaign director Clark Horvath, adding he hopes a blitz by popular Sen. Jesse Helms will help overcome the Carter lead.
South Carolina Both camps agree the race is dead even, with a big undecided vote. A survey by the Greenville News gave Reagan 37.5 percent, Carter 37.3 percent.
Georgia Even Reagan concedes Carter will win his home state big.
Florida Reagan leads slightly in another key state Carter carried in 1976. But things are looking better for Carter, one newspaper poll showed him only 2 points behind.
Alabama Reagan is narrowly leading, and the outcome could depend on which camp is better organized.
Mississippi Reagan holds a narrow edge and Carter forces hope a strong black vote will give the president the same thin margin he had here in 1976.
Louisiana A poll last week gave Louisiana to Reagan. But four years ago Ford led Carter at this point by about the same margin and Carter came back to win.
Arkansas Carter has maintained a 9 point lead, boosted by a solid black vote.
THE INDUSTRIAL MIDWEST - A major disappointment to Carter is his inability to overtake Reagan in Michigan, Illinois and Ohio.
Ohio A Carter campaign staffer admits being 5-8 points behind in a state he won by just 11,116 votes four years ago. Blacks in the northern cities who gave Carter his margin four years ago are apathetic.
Illinois A battle between Chicago Mayor Jane Byrne and Richard Daley, son of the late mayor, has split the Democrats and distracted from their working for Carter, giving Reagan the edge.
Michigan Reagan holds a lead of about 4 points in a state where Carter has improved his standing, but not enough. There is a large undecided vote.
THE AGRICULTURAL MIDWEST - Except for Walter Mondale's Minnesota, this is Reagan country.
Indiana Reagan clearly ahead, but his margin could be cut as two Democrats Sen. Birch Bayh and House Majority Whip John Brademas work for a big turnout in their close re-election battles.
Wisconsin Appears strong for Reagan, with a recent poll showing him ahead by 8 percent. Patrick Lucey, Anderson's running mate, is a former Wisconsin governor and Anderson is running a strong third.
Minnesota Carter's lead is not as great as it should be in his running-mate's home state, but the Reagan camp has given Minnesota low priority.
Iowa Carter unpopular here because of the grain embargo and Reagan way ahead. Carter didn't even bother to open a campaign headquarters in Iowa until early October.
Missouri One of Carter's best states, with one recent poll putting him ahead by 15 points.
North Dakota Only twice has North Dakota voted for a Democratic presidential candidate, and it is not likely to do so this year. Even Democrats are saying Reagan will win with little trouble.
South Dakota Carter camp says it is doubtful the president even will bother to campaign in a state where farmers are angered because he did not declare part of the state a disaster area this summer after a severe drought.
Nebraska Firmly Reagan. An Omaha World-Herald poll last week showed only 28 percent of the people approved of Carter's job performance.
Kansas The most recent poll shows Reagan has slipped 4 points but still holds a commanding lead in this heavily Republican state.
THE SOUTHWEST - Reagan country, with a shootout in Texas.
Texas Carter is closing the gap on Reagan in this strongly conservative state where GOP vice presidential candidate George Bush made his fortune and his home. 'It's going to be very close and Carter has as good a chance of carrying Texas as Reagan does,' said George Christian, Lyndon Johnson's press secretary.
Arizona Reagan a solid favorite in this conservative state.
Oklahoma Democratic Gov. George Nigh said of Carter's chances: 'It's uphill all the way.' Reagan has a big lead.
New Mexico Carter once hoped to take this state he lost by only 10,000 votes four years ago, but Reagan has moved into the lead.
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS - They're conservative and they don't like Carter.
Colorado Reagan leads 2-1. Carter is so unpopular because of his water policy that he could take Sen. Gary Hart down to defeat with him.
Wyoming Another 2-1 Reagan state. Carter coordinate David Freudenthal said: 'It's an uphill fight.
Utah A conservative, heavily Morman state that will go Reagan all the way. Polls show him getting 60 percent.
Montana Reagan holds a lead of about 3-2.
Idaho The only question is how big Reagan will win and whether Carter will help pull down liberal Sen. Frank Church.
THE FAR WEST - Little hope for Carter except in Hawaii.
California Carter hoped to give Reagan a stiff run in his home state, but a new poll showed Reagan out in front by 12 points. Carter strategists are now deciding whether to write off the state.
Alaska Carter often burned in effigy here because of his proposal for developing the Alaska wilderness. Just a question of how big Reagan wins.
Washington Anderson is drawing almost 20 percent, and that has kept Carter 10 to 12 percent behind Reagan in the polls. Carter hopes are dimming.
Oregon Anderson also is pulling strongly here, and while Reagan has the edge now, this could be a Carter upset.
Nevada Reagan a heavy favorite in the home state of his campaign manager, Sen. Paul Laxalt.
Hawaii A Honolulu Advertiser poll shows Carter ahead, 40-30, with Anderson at 12 percent. Carter should win comfortably since Sen. Daniel Inouye, miles ahead in his race, will use his organization for the president.
https://www.upi.com/Archives/1980/10/11/UPI-survey-shows-Reagan-way-ahead/1246340084800/
