What were the surprise states in the 1980 election?

[Podgy the Bear]

New York and Massachusetts.

The October 11, 1980 AP survey was probably the most accurate in predicting the final result (and even then was generous to the Democrats).  Many surveys at that time didn't show Reagan ahead in states like Pennsylvania or Michigan or Texas--and it was thought that Carter would retain much of his support in the South.

The AP survey was also done at a time when John Anderson was drawing 15-18 percent of the national vote.  As his vote dropped off later that month, it was thought that most of the Anderson support (which was never Reagan voters and disaffected Kennedy supporters) would move to Carter.    It appears that in the end, Reagan did actually get much of that support.

[Podgy the Bear]

Massachusetts and Arkansas. 

39 years later, it still amazes me that Ronald Reagan won Massachusetts twice--especially since it was the only state to vote for McGovern and has gone heavily Democratic since 1988.  Shows Reagan's ability to connect.