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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  What were the surprise states in the 1980 election?
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Author Topic: What were the surprise states in the 1980 election?  (Read 1998 times)
Arbitrage1980
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« on: July 01, 2019, 06:05:29 pm »

I don't think we had state by state polling back then, but the consensus was that Reagan would win by 2-4 points nationally, so his landslide win was a shocker. Which states in particular were stunning? MA, NY, MS, AL, are probably up there.
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« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2019, 07:07:26 pm »

I donít think many people actually expected Reagan to win Arkansas.
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tara gilesbie
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« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2019, 07:22:43 pm »

Massachusetts.
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« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2019, 07:59:00 pm »

MA and AR
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Mondale
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« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2019, 08:04:14 pm »

Quote
OCT. 11, 1980
UPI survey shows Reagan way ahead

Ronald Reagan would defeat President Carter easily if the voting were held now with likely wins in the vital industrial states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and New Jersey, a UPI survey showed Saturday.

UPI political writers in each state assessed candidate standings based on interviews with key politicians and office-holders, and concluded Reagan would carry 34 states with 365 electoral votes.

They found Carter would carry just 10 states and the District of Columbia with 121 electoral votes. Six states with 52 electoral votes were rated tossups. Independent candidate John Anderson carried no state, though he was close in Connecticut.

The survey showed Reagan has improved his position from a month ago when he had 30 states and 323 electoral votes to Carter's 15 and the District of Columbia with 128 electoral votes. Five states with 87 electoral votes were rated as tossups in the previous UPI survey.

The new survey shows Reagan making a strong attack on Carter's southern base, with Alabama and Louisiana slipping from 'leaning Carter' to 'leaning Reagan,' and Florida moving from a tossup state into the Reagan column. Reagan already was rated ahead in Mississippi and Virginia. South Carolina and Tennessee were tossups in both surveys.

But more important, Reagan now leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania, which were rated tossups in the last survey, while holding his lead in Michigan, Illinois and New Jersey.

The news was not all bad for Carter: New York swung into his column, and the race still is tight in many big northern states Carter must win to stay in the White House.

In addition, while Massachusetts and Connecticut were in the tossup column because of a heavy Anderson vote, there were indications support for the independent candidate was slipping as traditional Democrats returned to the fold.

Reagan, meanwhile, carried every state in the West except Hawaii. He appeared to be beating back Carter hopes of breaking through in states like Washington, Oregon and New Mexico.

....

I donít think many people actually expected Reagan to win Arkansas.


MA was a tossup by October while Carter had a 9% lead in AR:

Quote
By region, here is the UPI state-by-state survey:

NEW ENGLAND - Politically split, with conservatives against Carter in smaller rural states and Anderson depriving him of votes in the bigger industrial states.

Connecticut
Tossup. Reagan, Carter and Anderson camps agree the state is 'up for grabs.' One recent poll showed Reagan at 29 percent, Carter 28 percent and Anderson 27 percent.

Maine
Reagan holds a slim lead that could melt with vocal support for Carter from Secretary of State Edmund Muskie.

Massachusetts 
Tossup. A recent poll showed Reagan favored by 27 percent, Carter by 26 percent and Anderson by 24 percent. If Anderson fades, Carter should win.

New Hampshire

Strong Reagan. State GOP chairman Carroll Jones said in a three-way race, Reagan still will get a majority.


Rhode Island
Carter has increased his lead slightly. But his coordinator, Bob McGrath, says he thinks it will get closer in the next two weeks.

Vermont
Leaning Reagan. Carter has picked up ground here, and hopes to close in by election day but Vermont has gone Democratic in a presidential race only in 1964.

INDUSTRIAL NORTHEAST - Carter has pulled into a lead in New York, and is moving in on Reagan in New Jersey, but Reagan is ahead in Pennsylvania, a key state in Carter's 1976 victory.

New York
Carter probably would win New York by about 250,000 votes. One unpublished poll gives Carter 43 percent, Reagan 39, Anderson 18 and falling.

Pennsylvania
Leaning Reagan. A recent Gallup poll gave Reagan 40 percent with 33 percent for Carter and 16 percent for Anderson. Carter trails badly in the economically hard-hit coal regions of northeast Pennsylvania and that could mean the difference.

New Jersey
Leaning Reagan. Reagan led Carter by 5 percent in the respected Rutgers University-based Eagleton poll, with a whopping 21 percent for Anderson clearly the difference.

THE BORDER STATES - Delaware, Kentucky and Tennessee unexpectedly are turning into key 1980 battlegrounds while West Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia are holding for Carter.

Delaware
A tossup. Carter held a slight edge last month, but Reagan is gaining in one state where Anderson voters are turning to Republicans instead of to Carter.

District of Columbia
Even the local GOP chairman thinks Carter will win, but he expects Reagan to do better than Ford's 18 percent in 1976.

Maryland
This strongly Democratic state is in the Carter column, but his support in the ethnic blue collar wards of Baltimore where elections are won is considered soft.

Kentucky
Another tossup.

Tennessee
It's dead even in a state Carter carried easily four years ago. Says one Carter campaign worker, 'I'm working my butt off for Carter, but it's tough.'

West Virginia
Carter favored over Reagan. Latest poll has Democrat Jay Rockefeller over Republican ex-Gov. Arch Moore by 11 points. Same poll a month ago had Rockefeller ahead by 15.

THE SOUTH - Carter carried all but Virginia four years ago, but now could lose Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, and Louisiana as well.

Virginia
Carter has cut Reagan's lead in half in the last six weeks, but is still about 6 points behind. Reagan is popular among conservatives in the state he has adopted as his eastern home.

North Carolina

'We admit being behind,' says Reagan state campaign director Clark Horvath, adding he hopes a blitz by popular Sen. Jesse Helms will help overcome the Carter lead.

South Carolina
Both camps agree the race is dead even, with a big undecided vote. A survey by the Greenville News gave Reagan 37.5 percent, Carter 37.3 percent.

Georgia
Even Reagan concedes Carter will win his home state big.

Florida
Reagan leads slightly in another key state Carter carried in 1976. But things are looking better for Carter, one newspaper poll showed him only 2 points behind.

Alabama
Reagan is narrowly leading, and the outcome could depend on which camp is better organized.

Mississippi
Reagan holds a narrow edge and Carter forces hope a strong black vote will give the president the same thin margin he had here in 1976.

Louisiana
A poll last week gave Louisiana to Reagan. But four years ago Ford led Carter at this point by about the same margin and Carter came back to win.

Arkansas
Carter has maintained a 9 point lead, boosted by a solid black vote.

THE INDUSTRIAL MIDWEST -
A major disappointment to Carter is his inability to overtake Reagan in Michigan, Illinois and Ohio.

Ohio
A Carter campaign staffer admits being 5-8 points behind in a state he won by just 11,116 votes four years ago. Blacks in the northern cities who gave Carter his margin four years ago are apathetic.

Illinois
A battle between Chicago Mayor Jane Byrne and Richard Daley, son of the late mayor, has split the Democrats and distracted from their working for Carter, giving Reagan the edge.

Michigan
Reagan holds a lead of about 4 points in a state where Carter has improved his standing, but not enough. There is a large undecided vote.

THE AGRICULTURAL MIDWEST - Except for Walter Mondale's Minnesota, this is Reagan country.

Indiana
Reagan clearly ahead, but his margin could be cut as two Democrats Sen. Birch Bayh and House Majority Whip John Brademas work for a big turnout in their close re-election battles.

Wisconsin
Appears strong for Reagan, with a recent poll showing him ahead by 8 percent. Patrick Lucey, Anderson's running mate, is a former Wisconsin governor and Anderson is running a strong third.

Minnesota

Carter's lead is not as great as it should be in his running-mate's home state, but the Reagan camp has given Minnesota low priority.

Iowa
Carter unpopular here because of the grain embargo and Reagan way ahead. Carter didn't even bother to open a campaign headquarters in Iowa until early October.

Missouri
One of Carter's best states, with one recent poll putting him ahead by 15 points.

North Dakota
Only twice has North Dakota voted for a Democratic presidential candidate, and it is not likely to do so this year. Even Democrats are saying Reagan will win with little trouble.

South Dakota
Carter camp says it is doubtful the president even will bother to campaign in a state where farmers are angered because he did not declare part of the state a disaster area this summer after a severe drought.

Nebraska
Firmly Reagan. An Omaha World-Herald poll last week showed only 28 percent of the people approved of Carter's job performance.

Kansas
The most recent poll shows Reagan has slipped 4 points but still holds a commanding lead in this heavily Republican state.

THE SOUTHWEST - Reagan country, with a shootout in Texas.

Texas
Carter is closing the gap on Reagan in this strongly conservative state where GOP vice presidential candidate George Bush made his fortune and his home. 'It's going to be very close and Carter has as good a chance of carrying Texas as Reagan does,' said George Christian, Lyndon Johnson's press secretary.

Arizona
Reagan a solid favorite in this conservative state.

Oklahoma
Democratic Gov. George Nigh said of Carter's chances: 'It's uphill all the way.' Reagan has a big lead.

New Mexico
Carter once hoped to take this state he lost by only 10,000 votes four years ago, but Reagan has moved into the lead.

THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS - They're conservative and they don't like Carter.

Colorado
Reagan leads 2-1. Carter is so unpopular because of his water policy that he could take Sen. Gary Hart down to defeat with him.

Wyoming
Another 2-1 Reagan state. Carter coordinate David Freudenthal said: 'It's an uphill fight.

Utah
A conservative, heavily Morman state that will go Reagan all the way. Polls show him getting 60 percent.

Montana

Reagan holds a lead of about 3-2.

Idaho

The only question is how big Reagan will win and whether Carter will help pull down liberal Sen. Frank Church.

THE FAR WEST - Little hope for Carter except in Hawaii.

California
Carter hoped to give Reagan a stiff run in his home state, but a new poll showed Reagan out in front by 12 points. Carter strategists are now deciding whether to write off the state.

Alaska
Carter often burned in effigy here because of his proposal for developing the Alaska wilderness. Just a question of how big Reagan wins.

Washington
Anderson is drawing almost 20 percent, and that has kept Carter 10 to 12 percent behind Reagan in the polls. Carter hopes are dimming.

Oregon
Anderson also is pulling strongly here, and while Reagan has the edge now, this could be a Carter upset.

Nevada
Reagan a heavy favorite in the home state of his campaign manager, Sen. Paul Laxalt.

Hawaii
A Honolulu Advertiser poll shows Carter ahead, 40-30, with Anderson at 12 percent. Carter should win comfortably since Sen. Daniel Inouye, miles ahead in his race, will use his organization for the president.

https://www.upi.com/Archives/1980/10/11/UPI-survey-shows-Reagan-way-ahead/1246340084800/

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mollybecky
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« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2019, 07:35:25 am »

New York and Massachusetts.

The October 11, 1980 AP survey was probably the most accurate in predicting the final result (and even then was generous to the Democrats).  Many surveys at that time didn't show Reagan ahead in states like Pennsylvania or Michigan or Texas--and it was thought that Carter would retain much of his support in the South.

The AP survey was also done at a time when John Anderson was drawing 15-18 percent of the national vote.  As his vote dropped off later that month, it was thought that most of the Anderson support (which was never Reagan voters and disaffected Kennedy supporters) would move to Carter.    It appears that in the end, Reagan did actually get much of that support.
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« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2019, 01:11:23 pm »

Quote
OCT. 11, 1980
UPI survey shows Reagan way ahead

Ronald Reagan would defeat President Carter easily if the voting were held now with likely wins in the vital industrial states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and New Jersey, a UPI survey showed Saturday.

UPI political writers in each state assessed candidate standings based on interviews with key politicians and office-holders, and concluded Reagan would carry 34 states with 365 electoral votes.

They found Carter would carry just 10 states and the District of Columbia with 121 electoral votes. Six states with 52 electoral votes were rated tossups. Independent candidate John Anderson carried no state, though he was close in Connecticut.

The survey showed Reagan has improved his position from a month ago when he had 30 states and 323 electoral votes to Carter's 15 and the District of Columbia with 128 electoral votes. Five states with 87 electoral votes were rated as tossups in the previous UPI survey.

The new survey shows Reagan making a strong attack on Carter's southern base, with Alabama and Louisiana slipping from 'leaning Carter' to 'leaning Reagan,' and Florida moving from a tossup state into the Reagan column. Reagan already was rated ahead in Mississippi and Virginia. South Carolina and Tennessee were tossups in both surveys.

But more important, Reagan now leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania, which were rated tossups in the last survey, while holding his lead in Michigan, Illinois and New Jersey.

The news was not all bad for Carter: New York swung into his column, and the race still is tight in many big northern states Carter must win to stay in the White House.

In addition, while Massachusetts and Connecticut were in the tossup column because of a heavy Anderson vote, there were indications support for the independent candidate was slipping as traditional Democrats returned to the fold.

Reagan, meanwhile, carried every state in the West except Hawaii. He appeared to be beating back Carter hopes of breaking through in states like Washington, Oregon and New Mexico.

....

I donít think many people actually expected Reagan to win Arkansas.


MA was a tossup by October while Carter had a 9% lead in AR:

Quote
By region, here is the UPI state-by-state survey:

NEW ENGLAND - Politically split, with conservatives against Carter in smaller rural states and Anderson depriving him of votes in the bigger industrial states.

Connecticut
Tossup. Reagan, Carter and Anderson camps agree the state is 'up for grabs.' One recent poll showed Reagan at 29 percent, Carter 28 percent and Anderson 27 percent.

Maine
Reagan holds a slim lead that could melt with vocal support for Carter from Secretary of State Edmund Muskie.

Massachusetts 
Tossup. A recent poll showed Reagan favored by 27 percent, Carter by 26 percent and Anderson by 24 percent. If Anderson fades, Carter should win.

New Hampshire

Strong Reagan. State GOP chairman Carroll Jones said in a three-way race, Reagan still will get a majority.


Rhode Island
Carter has increased his lead slightly. But his coordinator, Bob McGrath, says he thinks it will get closer in the next two weeks.

Vermont
Leaning Reagan. Carter has picked up ground here, and hopes to close in by election day but Vermont has gone Democratic in a presidential race only in 1964.

INDUSTRIAL NORTHEAST - Carter has pulled into a lead in New York, and is moving in on Reagan in New Jersey, but Reagan is ahead in Pennsylvania, a key state in Carter's 1976 victory.

New York
Carter probably would win New York by about 250,000 votes. One unpublished poll gives Carter 43 percent, Reagan 39, Anderson 18 and falling.

Pennsylvania
Leaning Reagan. A recent Gallup poll gave Reagan 40 percent with 33 percent for Carter and 16 percent for Anderson. Carter trails badly in the economically hard-hit coal regions of northeast Pennsylvania and that could mean the difference.

New Jersey
Leaning Reagan. Reagan led Carter by 5 percent in the respected Rutgers University-based Eagleton poll, with a whopping 21 percent for Anderson clearly the difference.

THE BORDER STATES - Delaware, Kentucky and Tennessee unexpectedly are turning into key 1980 battlegrounds while West Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia are holding for Carter.

Delaware
A tossup. Carter held a slight edge last month, but Reagan is gaining in one state where Anderson voters are turning to Republicans instead of to Carter.

District of Columbia
Even the local GOP chairman thinks Carter will win, but he expects Reagan to do better than Ford's 18 percent in 1976.

Maryland
This strongly Democratic state is in the Carter column, but his support in the ethnic blue collar wards of Baltimore where elections are won is considered soft.

Kentucky
Another tossup.

Tennessee
It's dead even in a state Carter carried easily four years ago. Says one Carter campaign worker, 'I'm working my butt off for Carter, but it's tough.'

West Virginia
Carter favored over Reagan. Latest poll has Democrat Jay Rockefeller over Republican ex-Gov. Arch Moore by 11 points. Same poll a month ago had Rockefeller ahead by 15.

THE SOUTH - Carter carried all but Virginia four years ago, but now could lose Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, and Louisiana as well.

Virginia
Carter has cut Reagan's lead in half in the last six weeks, but is still about 6 points behind. Reagan is popular among conservatives in the state he has adopted as his eastern home.

North Carolina

'We admit being behind,' says Reagan state campaign director Clark Horvath, adding he hopes a blitz by popular Sen. Jesse Helms will help overcome the Carter lead.

South Carolina
Both camps agree the race is dead even, with a big undecided vote. A survey by the Greenville News gave Reagan 37.5 percent, Carter 37.3 percent.

Georgia
Even Reagan concedes Carter will win his home state big.

Florida
Reagan leads slightly in another key state Carter carried in 1976. But things are looking better for Carter, one newspaper poll showed him only 2 points behind.

Alabama
Reagan is narrowly leading, and the outcome could depend on which camp is better organized.

Mississippi
Reagan holds a narrow edge and Carter forces hope a strong black vote will give the president the same thin margin he had here in 1976.

Louisiana
A poll last week gave Louisiana to Reagan. But four years ago Ford led Carter at this point by about the same margin and Carter came back to win.

Arkansas
Carter has maintained a 9 point lead, boosted by a solid black vote.

THE INDUSTRIAL MIDWEST -
A major disappointment to Carter is his inability to overtake Reagan in Michigan, Illinois and Ohio.

Ohio
A Carter campaign staffer admits being 5-8 points behind in a state he won by just 11,116 votes four years ago. Blacks in the northern cities who gave Carter his margin four years ago are apathetic.

Illinois
A battle between Chicago Mayor Jane Byrne and Richard Daley, son of the late mayor, has split the Democrats and distracted from their working for Carter, giving Reagan the edge.

Michigan
Reagan holds a lead of about 4 points in a state where Carter has improved his standing, but not enough. There is a large undecided vote.

THE AGRICULTURAL MIDWEST - Except for Walter Mondale's Minnesota, this is Reagan country.

Indiana
Reagan clearly ahead, but his margin could be cut as two Democrats Sen. Birch Bayh and House Majority Whip John Brademas work for a big turnout in their close re-election battles.

Wisconsin
Appears strong for Reagan, with a recent poll showing him ahead by 8 percent. Patrick Lucey, Anderson's running mate, is a former Wisconsin governor and Anderson is running a strong third.

Minnesota

Carter's lead is not as great as it should be in his running-mate's home state, but the Reagan camp has given Minnesota low priority.

Iowa
Carter unpopular here because of the grain embargo and Reagan way ahead. Carter didn't even bother to open a campaign headquarters in Iowa until early October.

Missouri
One of Carter's best states, with one recent poll putting him ahead by 15 points.

North Dakota
Only twice has North Dakota voted for a Democratic presidential candidate, and it is not likely to do so this year. Even Democrats are saying Reagan will win with little trouble.

South Dakota
Carter camp says it is doubtful the president even will bother to campaign in a state where farmers are angered because he did not declare part of the state a disaster area this summer after a severe drought.

Nebraska
Firmly Reagan. An Omaha World-Herald poll last week showed only 28 percent of the people approved of Carter's job performance.

Kansas
The most recent poll shows Reagan has slipped 4 points but still holds a commanding lead in this heavily Republican state.

THE SOUTHWEST - Reagan country, with a shootout in Texas.

Texas
Carter is closing the gap on Reagan in this strongly conservative state where GOP vice presidential candidate George Bush made his fortune and his home. 'It's going to be very close and Carter has as good a chance of carrying Texas as Reagan does,' said George Christian, Lyndon Johnson's press secretary.

Arizona
Reagan a solid favorite in this conservative state.

Oklahoma
Democratic Gov. George Nigh said of Carter's chances: 'It's uphill all the way.' Reagan has a big lead.

New Mexico
Carter once hoped to take this state he lost by only 10,000 votes four years ago, but Reagan has moved into the lead.

THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS - They're conservative and they don't like Carter.

Colorado
Reagan leads 2-1. Carter is so unpopular because of his water policy that he could take Sen. Gary Hart down to defeat with him.

Wyoming
Another 2-1 Reagan state. Carter coordinate David Freudenthal said: 'It's an uphill fight.

Utah
A conservative, heavily Morman state that will go Reagan all the way. Polls show him getting 60 percent.

Montana

Reagan holds a lead of about 3-2.

Idaho

The only question is how big Reagan will win and whether Carter will help pull down liberal Sen. Frank Church.

THE FAR WEST - Little hope for Carter except in Hawaii.

California
Carter hoped to give Reagan a stiff run in his home state, but a new poll showed Reagan out in front by 12 points. Carter strategists are now deciding whether to write off the state.

Alaska
Carter often burned in effigy here because of his proposal for developing the Alaska wilderness. Just a question of how big Reagan wins.

Washington
Anderson is drawing almost 20 percent, and that has kept Carter 10 to 12 percent behind Reagan in the polls. Carter hopes are dimming.

Oregon
Anderson also is pulling strongly here, and while Reagan has the edge now, this could be a Carter upset.

Nevada
Reagan a heavy favorite in the home state of his campaign manager, Sen. Paul Laxalt.

Hawaii
A Honolulu Advertiser poll shows Carter ahead, 40-30, with Anderson at 12 percent. Carter should win comfortably since Sen. Daniel Inouye, miles ahead in his race, will use his organization for the president.

https://www.upi.com/Archives/1980/10/11/UPI-survey-shows-Reagan-way-ahead/1246340084800/



How was Carter ahead by 15 points in Missouri?
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« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2019, 01:46:39 pm »

CS monitor had Reagan up 241-155 a week before election:


Quote
Other political experts think the electoral tilt toward Reagan is so persistent that it will resist late-hour change. "We have not seen the day of this campaign that Reagan wouldn't have won if a vote was taken," says Robert Teeter, the highly regarded Republic pollster from Michigan. "The greater likelihood is that nothing will happen to offset the strong tilt toward Reagan in the closing days."

The Monitor composite count finds 48 electoral votes strong for Carter: Hawaii in the West; Rhode Island in the East; Georgia, Arkansas, West Virginia, North Carolina, and the District of Columbia in the South-border state region.

Leaning to Carter are 107 electoral votes: Minnesota and Missouri in the Midwest; Alabama, South Carolina, and Maryland in the South; New York, Delaware, and Massachusetts in the East.

In doubt are Oregon in the West; Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan in the Midwest; Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky in the South-border area; Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Vermont, and Maine in the East.

Leaning to Reagan are 163 electoral votes: Washington, California, and New Mexico in the West; Iowa and Ohio in the Midwest; Texas, Florida, and Virginia in the South; New Jersey in the East.

Strong for Reagan, 78 votes: Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, Alaska in the West; North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Indiana in the Midwest; Oklahoma in the Southborder, and New Hampshire in the East


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/amphtml/1980/1028/102832.html
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« Reply #8 on: July 19, 2019, 01:47:09 am »

Arkansas
Massachusetts
Missouri?
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UnselfconsciousTeff
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« Reply #9 on: July 20, 2019, 06:05:47 am »

it still baffels me that Reagan won most of the South by small margins and that Anderson denied Carter NY and MA
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« Reply #10 on: July 20, 2019, 07:35:14 am »

Massachusetts and Arkansas. 

39 years later, it still amazes me that Ronald Reagan won Massachusetts twice--especially since it was the only state to vote for McGovern and has gone heavily Democratic since 1988.  Shows Reagan's ability to connect.
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buritobr
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« Reply #11 on: July 20, 2019, 02:40:35 pm »

If you look to newspapers from November 4th 1980, the polls were showing this:



The green states are the undecided ones

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« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2019, 08:02:11 pm »

Something of note is that many areas won by Reagan in 1980 all had very thin levels of support for him over Carter.

In the below map, this is a scenario where Reagan wins the NPV while losing the EC.



In the below map, this is a scenario where Reagan wins the NPV by about the same margin that the pundits expected.



In the below map, this is a scenario where Carter wins the NPV by about the same margin that Reagan won the NPV in real life.



In the below map, this is a scenario where Reagan still outperforms expectations, yet slightly less so than in real life.

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« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2019, 09:04:36 am »

NY and MA - those were the late "steals" by Reagan in the race when just a week or so before, they seemed to be heading Carter's way despite the likelihood he would lose overall anyhow.
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« Reply #14 on: July 28, 2019, 03:06:36 am »

I would say Massachusetts.
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« Reply #15 on: July 30, 2019, 02:47:54 am »

Arkansas, North Carolina, New York, & Missouri. I wouldn't really say that Massachusetts was a "surprise" because it was more-or-less already presumed to be a tossup.
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« Reply #16 on: July 30, 2019, 07:52:36 pm »

To be completely honest, Carter has absolutely no excuse to lose any of the states that he lost by less than 5 percent, states he should have easily won with even an average set of campaigning skills. Great man, but quite honestly one of the worst campaigners in the history of presidents
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« Reply #17 on: July 30, 2019, 11:34:25 pm »

To be completely honest, Carter has absolutely no excuse to lose any of the states that he lost by less than 5 percent, states he should have easily won with even an average set of campaigning skills. Great man, but quite honestly one of the worst campaigners in the history of presidents

Not really

-  The Worst economy since the 1930s and things were only getting worse
- Multiple And Visible Failures Abroad
- Very little polarization and the 80s were probably the least polarizing decade since the 50s



Reaganís debate performance  was also overrated , reason he  surged after debates was voters wanted any reason to vote against Carter but also were scared Reagan would be a crazy war monger . Once that was proven not to be true , Carter was going to lose in a landslide
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« Reply #18 on: August 01, 2019, 09:21:18 pm »


There's an interesting article I found on the prospects of Carter losing the South from July 1980:

Will Jimmy Carter destroy the Democratic Party?

Seems like the Carter campaign saw Missouri as a swing state but Arkansas wasn't even considered one:

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« Reply #19 on: August 01, 2019, 09:26:57 pm »


There's an interesting article I found on the prospects of Carter losing the South from July 1980:

Will Jimmy Carter destroy the Democratic Party?

Seems like the Carter campaign saw Missouri as a swing state but Arkansas wasn't even considered one:



That map is extremely hard to read as Both the Reagan and carter states are marked with the same color
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« Reply #20 on: August 01, 2019, 09:31:55 pm »

Maybe the opposite surprise was Mississippi being so narrow. When the polls in the eve showed that the national margin would be 3 points for Reagan, the pollls were already predicting Reagan winning in Mississippi. The national margin was 10 points, and even though, the margin in Mississippi was <2%. There was a narrow victory for Reagan in 1980 in Arkansas and Mississippi. In 1976, there was a landslide for Carter in Arkansas and a narrow victory for Carter in Mississippi. Maybe, the black turnout in Mississippi in 1980 was higher than expected.
Reagan started his campaign there, talking about the states' rights.
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Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #21 on: August 02, 2019, 09:20:24 am »


That map is extremely hard to read as Both the Reagan and carter states are marked with the same color

Yes true but read the article starting on pg 3.

Also spoiler alert: Jimmy Carter does end up destroying the Democratic Party
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #22 on: August 02, 2019, 04:44:26 pm »

I don't think we had state by state polling back then, but the consensus was that Reagan would win by 2-4 points nationally, so his landslide win was a shocker.

Reagan 1980: 50.7%
Obama 2012: 51.1%

The EC is a deceptive representation of what happened in that election.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #23 on: August 02, 2019, 05:01:17 pm »

I don't think we had state by state polling back then, but the consensus was that Reagan would win by 2-4 points nationally, so his landslide win was a shocker.

Reagan 1980: 50.7%
Obama 2012: 51.1%

The EC is a deceptive representation of what happened in that election.

Yeah if you went by the electoral college, Carter did worse than any incumbent ever. That's just not true. Look at Hoover
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #24 on: August 02, 2019, 05:35:02 pm »

I don't think we had state by state polling back then, but the consensus was that Reagan would win by 2-4 points nationally, so his landslide win was a shocker.

Reagan 1980: 50.7%
Obama 2012: 51.1%

The EC is a deceptive representation of what happened in that election.


Carter got 41% while Romney got 47.2% and Anderson at most got 60% of Carter voters while at least 40% them would have voted for Reagan.


Reagan win by basically 10 points is still a landslide
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