Well, what's up with Hillary? Is she still Secretary of State in this scenario, or does she stay in the Senate? Obama was a big fan of the "Team of Rivals," but, if he were to put Biden in at State instead of Clinton, then his foreign policy would've been a lot less hawkish, & much more in line with what he campaigned on in 2008. Not to mention, we wouldn't have the right crying about nothing but Benghazi for a few years just to weaken Clinton's chances in 2016.
Regardless, had he gotten the nod, VP Bayh definitely would've run in 2016, but I think he'd stand even less of a chance against Hillary in this 2016 than Biden did in ours. If Joe Biden didn't have it sewn up against Hillary, then there's no way in hell that Bayh would.
With Bayh elected, his Senate seat would've gone Republican, thus depriving Democrats from their 60 seats needed to pass health care bill. Without having his signature accomplishment, and with RL problems such as slow recovery remaining, Obama might've very well lose in 2012, making 2016 a wide-open race, thus denying Bayh semi-incumbent status of a sitting VP. Good economy and no Democratic fatigue would probably be enough to reelect President Romney.
Under this scenario, Hillary may not have ran at all, since it was easier for her to run for popular Obama's "third term".
Depends on how Bayh's presence on the ticket impacted the Senate races in 2008. Yeah, Mitch Daniels would've replaced Bayh with a Republican (this scenario probably butterflies away Dan Coats' return to the Senate, as you'd probably see Daniels appoint then-Rep. Mike Pence (or some other placeholder until Pence runs in 2010) to the seat), but if Bayh means they do better in 2008 & win some other seats (e.g., defeating McConnell (more likely) & Chambliss (less likely, given GA's runoff structure, but still possible) in 2008 are goals that would've been achieved with just a 3.3% nationwide swing, which seems reasonable), then there'd be a 61-39 Democratic margin in the Senate come 2009. Even if Scott Brown still wins down the line, that'd still be a filibuster-proof margin. If this were the case, then Bayh would probably have some good contacts within the Blue Dogs in the Senate, which could've helped Obama get the ACA passed.
