UK General Election 2019 - Campaign Thread

[DKrol]

General Election 2019

Cameron announcing his resignation as Prime Minister in the wake of the UK vote on EU membership.
Tom Evans, via Wikimedia Commons

List of Players:

Conservative Party
Prime Minister David Cameron - YPestis


Liberal Democrats
Jo Swinson, MP - SO19

Labour Party
Alistair Darling, MP - Jackson Hitchcock
Sadiq Khan, Mayor of London - Hummus_con_Pita

United Kingdom Independence Party
Nigel Farage, MP - ChairmanSanchez

Scottish National Party
Nicola Sturgeon, MSP - Thumb21

Green Party
Caroline Lucas, MP - GoTFan

Democratic Unionist Party
Arlene Foster, MP - Terp40

Sinn Fein
Mary Lou McDonald, TD - Harry S. Truman

Plaid Cyrmu
Adam Price, AM - Ishan

Brexit Party
Paul Nuttall, MP - NYIndy

Change UK
Anna Soubry, MP - Lumine

Electoral Regions:

Scotland: 59 MPs
Wales: 40 MPs
Northern Ireland: 18 MPs
England: 533 MPs
-East of England: 50 MPs
-East Midlands: 46 MPs
-London: 80 MPs
-North East: 29 MPs
-North West: 75 MPs
-South East: 84 MPs
-South West: 55 MPs
-West Midlands: 59 MPs
-Yorkshire and the Humber: 55 MPs

[DKrol]

Turn One
August 1 -August 7

What do the local election results mean?
From news.sky.com

Adam Boulton: The Prime Minister has just called a general election, the third to be fought under the proportional, party-list system. This is an election neccessitated by Andrea Leadsom's inability to get her Withdrawal Bill through the Commons, and David Cameron's inability to create a stable government under the results of the 2014 general election. The campaign will last six weeks, with Brits heading to the polls on September the 12th. With the first poll of the 2019 campaign, here's Beth Rigby.

Beth Rigby: Yeah, hello there, Adam. Sky News is just releasing its first poll of General Election 2019.

Sky News, National Poll - August 1, 2019:

Liberal Democrats: 23%
Conservatives 22%
Labour: 20%
UKIP: 19%
SNP: 4%
Change UK: 4%
Green Party: 2%
Brexit: 2%
DUP: 1%
Others: 3%

Rigby: The poll looks to show a tight race at the top, with the Liberal Democrats, Tories, Labour, and UKIP only seperated by 4%, as well as a close race among the second tier parties who could play kingmaker if their is a hung parliament, as we expect there to be. Most noticable, I think, is the drop in support for the DUP, who polled at 5% in 2014 and won two seats in England, but are now only on 1%. When asked why, according to our pollsters, voters who supported the DUP in 2014 but aren't in this poll said they were upset by the job Arlene Foster did in Andrea Leadsom's coalition. It's also worth noting, Adam, that these numbers are very soft. Only 34% of respondents said they had firmly decided how they were going to vote in six weeks time.

From the GM:

1. This turn will last 96 hours and end at 11:59 PM on July 3.

2. Each leader must post a manifesto in the manifesto thread (about to be posted) before the end of the turn. As explained in the rules, the manifesto is your five key proposals. Manifestos will be scrutinized by the press and other parties, so be careful your promises.

3. Starting this ,turn a random number generator for each party may determine good news or bad news. If something particularly newsworthy happens a special news edition, reaction, or newspaper editorial might appear in this thead. If not, it will appear in the end of turn summary post.

[DKrol]

Parliament, as of August 1, 2019

The Government: 332
Conservatives - 273
UKIP - 47
DUP - 12

The Opposition: 291
Liberal Democrats - 166
Labour - 98
SNP - 19
Plaid Cymru - 5
SDLP - 3

Other Opposition: 26
Greens - 10
Change UK - 9
Sinn Fein - 4
Brexit - 3
Independents - 1

By Electoral Region

Scotland - 59 seats
SNP - 19
Labour Party - 14
Conservative Party - 13
Liberal Democrats - 10
UKIP - 2
Greens - 1

Wales - 40 seats
Conservative Party - 14
Liberal Democrats - 10
Labour Party - 7
Plaid Cymru - 5
UKIP - 4

Northern Ireland - 18 seats
DUP - 10
Sinn Fein - 4
SDLP - 3
Independent - 1

West Midlands - 59 seats
Conservative Party - 31
Liberal Democrats - 10
Labour Party - 10
UKIP - 5
Change UK - 3

East Midlands - 46 seats
Conservative Party - 30
Liberal Democrats - 12
UKIP - 3
Labour Party - 1

East of England - 50 seats
Conservative Party - 30
Liberal Democrats - 13
UKIP - 10

London - 80 seats
Liberal Democrats - 28
Labour Party - 20
Conservative Party - 17
UKIP - 10
Greens - 3
Change UK - 2

North West - 75 Seats
Conservative Party - 36
Liberal Democrats - 25
Labour Party - 10
Change UK - 2
Brexit - 1
DUP - 1

Yorkshire and the Humber - 55 seats
Labour Party - 20
Conservative Party - 20
Liberal Democrats - 14
UKIP - 1

South West - 55 seats
Conservative Party - 23
Liberal Democrats - 19
UKIP - 7
Labour Party - 4
Change UK - 1
Brexit - 1

South East - 84 seats
Conservative Party - 47
Liberal Democrats - 21
UKIP - 5
Greens - 5
Labour Party - 4
DUP - 1
Change UK - 1

North East - 29 seats
Conservatives - 15
Labour - 8
Liberal Democrats - 4
Greens - 1
Brexit - 1

[DKrol]

BREAKING NEWS: Sinn Fein Councillor Stabbed, Killed In Belfast
The Guardian Staff

Arder Carson
Sinn Fein, via Wikimedia Commons

Arder Carson, former Lord Mayor of Belfast and recently elected to the City's Council for Sinn Fein, has been stabbed to death at a surgery in his district of Black Mountain. Mr. Carson was preparing to leave the venue when a man, it is reported, charged at him and began to thrust a small knife into Mr. Carson's stomach. Mr. Carson was stabbed several times before bystanders could wrestle the attacker away and remove the knife. An eyewitness reported the attacker was a local DUP volunteer, although The Guardian cannot confirm this at this time. A second eyewitness told a reporter that the attacker "seemed to be motivated by a person grievance" against Mr. Carson. The attacker is in custody and being questioned by the Police Service of Northern Ireland.

Mr. Carson died due to his injuries while waiting for emergency medical services to arrive. Mr. Carson's death is the second such incident to possibly be motivated by Irish national/unionist sentiments in recent months, after the murder of journalist Lyra McKee.

[DKrol]

Turn Two
August 8 - August 14

Kay Burley Gets Last Laugh On Trolls After Cliff Michelmore Mis-Tweet
Sky News, via Huffington Post

Kay Burley: And now a look at tomorrow’s papers.

THE TIMES: Labour Silent on Brexit in Manifesto

THE GUARDIAN: With UKIP Absent from the Campaign Trail, Brexit Party Surges

THE INDEPENDENT: Attenborough Endorses Greens, Rallies in London

THE SUN: Carson’s Murder - Staged by Irish Nationalists to End Brexit?

THE IRISH NEWS: PSNI Confirms Councillor Stabbing Not Politically Motivated

Burley: It certainly has been an interesting first week of this 2019 General Election campaign. To talk about the week here’s Sky Political Editor, Beth Rigby.

Beth Rigby: Hi, Kay.

Burley: Let’s start with the biggest news - Labour ignoring Brexit?

Rigby: Yeah, it’s a bit of a head scratcher. Brexit, we think, will be the biggest issue of the campaign. It’s the reason why we’re having this election in the first place, right? Nowhere in their Manifesto does Labour mention Brexit or even hint at a plan for post-Brexit Britain. Although Alistair Darling did speak about Brexit on the campaign trail, the fact that it’s not mentioned in their manifesto at all certainly raises questions among the electorate about how seriously Labour will be able to address Brexit if they’re in Government.

Burley: On the opposite end of the spectrum, there are the three Brexit-centered parties: UKIP, Brexit, and Change UK. What about them? All non-traditional parties making strong cases for their manifesto?

Rigby: The UKIP and Brexit manifestos are about what we would expect from parties led by Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttal. They both firmly committed themselves to seeing Brexit out, although the Brexit Party’s manifesto left some murkiness on how exactly they plan to achieve Article 50. UKIP, they were very clear - we will repeal the European Communities Act and leave on our own terms, forcing Europe to negotiate with Britain, rather than the other way around. Both the Brexit Party and UKIP took hard-line positions on immigration and taxation, setting themselves firmly on the right of the political spectrum.

Change UK, despite having a cross-spectrum membership, positioned itself as a party of the left in their manifesto. They endorsed a second Brexit referendum, and campaigning to remain in that referendum, a more socialised economy, environmentalism, and radical political reform, including an elected House of Lords, giving 16 years olds the franchise, and devolving more powers to regional assemblies.

Burley: How was the Change UK manifesto received by the public?

Rigby: It’s really unclear at this point. Anna Soubry did a stellar job on the campaign trail and endeared her party to a lot of young people, Remainers, and disaffected Labour voters, but she also distanced herself from some of her former Conservative supporters who could have given them a few seats in Conservative-leaning Remain areas.

Burley: Let’s talk about the two largest parties in Parliament right now - the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. How were their manifestos?

Rigby: The Liberal Democrats cemented themselves as the Opposition to the Conservative Government. Their first manifesto promise is to hold a second referendum, although, interestingly, there was no mention of which side the LibDems would campaign for. Given that Nick Clegg was the face of the Remain vote in 2016, it’s very surprising that the LibDems aren’t declaring that they are a Remain party in their manifesto. They’ve also pledged to spend 100 billion pounds on the NHS, which is double the amount Labour pledged in their manifesto.

The Tory manifesto a solid blue programme. It was rather cut and dry - what you would expect from a Conservative election campaign. The Tories have been in Government since 2012 and, based on their Manifesto, they’ve run out of fresh ideas on how to make Britain better. The Brexit section of their Manifesto provides no clues or clarity as to how David Cameron hopes to get a better deal for Britain from the EU than the one his predecessor, Andrea Leadsom, negotiated.

Burley: Finally, let’s turn our attention to the regional parties.

Rigby: The Scottish National Party had a good manifesto launch. It’s clear that they are going to be a force up North this year. They’ve firmly committed to a Scottish independence referendum and to campaign for Scotland’s independence. They’ve also declared that they are a pro-Europe Party and that they want an independent Scotland to remain in the European Union. The SNP manifesto ticked all the boxes.

Plaid Cymru’s manifesto fell a bit flat. They laid out six promises only in the most general terms. There were no specifics, leaving voters unsure who how Plaid would enact their promises. For example, they endorsed Welsh Independence without a plan to get there. They also generally committed themselves to more Welsh devolution without specifics on what they mean or want, and how to get there. Kind of subpar for Plaid.

Northern Ireland is a bit different. The DUP didn’t release a manifesto. It’s been radio silence from Arlene Foster and the DUP for some time now. We’re not even sure, honestly, if the DUP is standing in this election, in Northern Ireland or otherwise. Sinn Fein, rocked by the news of the murder of Arder Carson, came out swinging in their manifesto. No holds barred, Sinn Fein attacked the DUP at every turn possible. On austerity, on the Northern Irish Executive, on workers’ rights - bam, bam, bam. And the DUP is missing, unable or unwilling to respond.

---

Sophy Ridge on Sunday
Sky News

Sophy Ridge: Here is the latest Sky News National Poll. Worth a note, Sky News has decided not to include the SNP in national polling from now on. There are now separate Sky News regional polls.

Sky News, National Poll - August 8, 2019:

Conservatives 23% (+1)
Labour: 22% (+2)
Liberal Democrats: 20% (-3)
UKIP: 13% (-6)
Change UK: 11% (+7)
Green Party: 4% (+2)
Brexit: 4% (+2)
Others: 3%

Sky News, Scotland Poll - August 8, 2019:

SNP: 34%
Labour: 19%
Conservatives: 19%
Liberal Democrats: 12%
Change UK: 8%
Green Party: 6%
Others: 2%

Sky News, Wales Poll - August 8, 2019:

Conservatives: 26%
Liberal Democrats: 22%
Plaid Cymru: 17%
Labour: 17%
Change UK: 6%
Brexit: 5%
Green Party: 4%
Other: 3%

Sky News, Northern Ireland Poll - August 8, 2019:

Sinn Fein: 41%
DUP: 28%
UUP: 14%
SDLP: 13%
TUV: 2%
Other: 2%

Ridge: What’s driving the movement in these polls? Let’s talk to Professor Michael Thrasher of the University of Plymouth. Doctor Thrasher, what do you see that’s caused the changes in these polls?

Michael Thrasher: The most obvious change in the polls is the Liberal Democrats slipping from their first place poll spot, nationally. They’ve been in the lead of the national polls since March, when Andrea Leadsom’s Withdrawal Bill was defeated the first time. They’ve only dropped 3%, and they’re still within 3% of the lead, but this is the first time a Sky poll has shown them out of the lead spot.

Ridge: Why is that?

Thrasher: It’s got to be because of Jo Swinson’s campaigning. Her speeches lacked cohesion and her policy proposals were poorly received. Specifically, in Scotland, she promised to hold a second EU referendum while also allowing regions the choice to remain in the EU. Voters don’t understand how that would work. How can Scotland be part of the UK and EU if the UK as a whole leaves the EU? It was especially hard to understand given her refusal to support a vote on Scottish Independence. Wouldn’t Scotland voting to stay in the EU, if the rest of the country votes to leave, be a vote of independence, under the Liberal Democrat plan? Her comments on affordable education were well received, however, which I think helped her party hold on to some supporters.

Ridge: What’s the next big surprise in the new polls, for you?

Thrasher: It would have to be the rise of Anna Soubry and Change UK. This party was a group of 9 MPs from across the political spectrum that has now positioned itself as a mainstream, left-of-center party. Her decision to focus the campaign on London and the South East is also probably boosting the party’s numbers, although it will probably mean they are unable to be the largest party in Parliament but they could be a significant kingmaker.

Ridge: Maybe that’s their goal in this campaign. What about Caroline Lucas’ Greens? Do you think they could play kingmaker?

Thrasher: Probably not. Caroline Lucas’ Greens are not the Greens of Germany. They do not, yet, have a broad base of support. If seats were allocated nationally, which they aren’t, the Greens wouldn’t have a single MP. I think that shows the limits of their reach. But I could see them picking up a few seats in London, where they had David Attenborough campaigning for them, and in the South East. I’m sure, if Caroline Lucas is at the top of the Green list in the South East, she’ll be returned as an MP.

Ridge: The traditional two parties are back on top in this poll - Labour and the Conservatives. Are we seeing a return to normalcy?

Thrasher: Again, probably not. I think the rising of Labour and the Conservatives may be offset by what I’ve said about Change UK and the Greens. Alistair Darling has run a good campaign for Labour, looking to rebound after two bad elections in 2012 and 2014. Their manifesto was not received all too well, but their campaign as been smooth, clear, and well managed, which has mitigated the damage. He’s making a play at his native Scotland, which is probably where Labour has the best hopes of winning extra seats, but his position on Scottish independence will make it hard for massive amounts of Scots to rally around him.

David Cameron, to this point, has led a standard Tory campaign. He’s brought the campaign to a few new places, like Liverpool and Manchester and Sunderland, but he’s repeated traditional Tory campaign points. They’ll do well in the traditional Tory-supporting areas, and may pick up a seat or two in strong Leave-voting areas in the North, but I don’t expect to see a large change in Tory MPs returned at this point.

Ridge: And finally, the two Brexit-focused parties. Should these polls excite or scare Nigel Farage?

Thrasher: I think they are a warning sign for Mr. Farage and UKIP. If he wants to maintain his status as the leader of a top four party, he needs to fight for it. The UKIP manifesto was received well enough by the UKIP loyal, but he didn’t make a single campaign stop this week. The first week of a campaign can be the most important in shaping voter’s impressions of a party. It’ll take a lot to fight back and stave off not only the attacks from the left-of-center parties, but also from his right, with Paul Nuttal’s Brexit Party giving UKIP a run for its money. The decision of the Brexit Party to campaign in London and Scotland, two of the largest Remain areas in the country, is certainly a head-scratcher.

Ridge: Could either UKIP or the Brexit Party be the largest party after this election?

Thrasher: Unlikely. Impossible if they are contesting the same regions.

Ridge: Any final thoughts?

Thrasher: I think we can learn a few things from the Scottish, Welsh, and Northern Irish polls. In Scotland, the SNP are going to be the largest party, pending a disaster, and probably end up with about 30 MPs. That’s a strong enough number to have a role in a Government, or to hold up the forming of a coalition until demands are met on Brexit, Scottish independence, or both.

In Wales, it looks like the opposite. So far the Plaid Cymru campaign has been less than the stellar product they need in order to create a real voice in Westminster. They’re currently project to net about 7 MPs which is an increase from their current total but still short of their potential.

Northern Ireland is the most interesting case. We’re seeing an almost complete flip from the results five years ago. Sinn Fein has surged to the lead, thanks to a strong manifesto, smart campaigning by Mary Lou McDonald, and the complete absence of the DUP. The brutal murder of Arder Carson is, I’m sure, fuelling some of the rise in Sinn Fein’s support, so I think next week or so, after the Leader’s Debate, we’ll have a more clear idea of how Northern Ireland will stand on election day.

Ridge: Michael Thrasher, Sky’s Election Analyst, thank you.

From the GM:

1. There will be a debate this turn. In a separate debate thread, I will post four or five questions for every leader to answer, plus one special question for each leader. For the sake of your schedule planning, the debate will occur on August 12 on Sky News from Sky's London set.

2. The turn will last 72 hours FROM WHEN THE DEBATE QUESTIONS ARE POSTED. I imagine the questions will be up tomorrow evening, so I expect the turn to end around 11:59 PM on Monday, July 8.

3. Before the end of the turn, I need each leader to post either a full list of their candidates (not expected or required in any way), or a list of their top-tier candidates, in each region they're contesting (expected and required). If you don't post any candidates for any region, I will assume you are not contesting any regions and you will be removed from the game.

[DKrol]

BREAKING NEWS: Nuttall, Farage Announce Brexit-UKIP Coalition
The Times Staff

New UKIP leader Nuttall quite different than staunch Trump supporter Farage
Facundo Arrizabalaga/European Press Agency via UPI

Just a few months after the Brexit Party splintered off from UKIP, citing problems with Nigel Farage's leadership of UKIP and the role of certain far-right individuals in the eurosceptic party, all bridges seem to be mended. Earlier today, Mr. Farage, leader of UKIP, and Paul Nuttall, leader of the Brexit Party, held a press conference to announce the two forces were coming back together. Led by Mr. Nuttall, with Mr. Farage as his Deputy, the united parties will contest the General Election as the British Freedom Party. The BFP is being described by insiders as more of an electoral coalition than a formal merger. One person with knowledge of the negotiations leading up the press conference said the long-term plan is for the BFP to mirror the Australian Coalition, where the Brexit Party and UKIP will coordinate on a national level but maintain separate organizations in regional elections. At this time, due to the constraints of the election being just 4 weeks away, all signs point to the BFP being equivalent to a full-level merger through 2019.

[DKrol]

Breaking News: Soubry Facing Expense Scandal
The Daily Telegraph Staff

Anna Soubry: Umunna made ‘serious mistake’ leaving Change UK
Dimitris Legakis/Athena Pictures via The Guardian

Anna Soubry, MP for London and leader of Change UK, is facing calls for her to stand down as Leader of Change UK as reports have surfaced which allege she misused funds from Parliament. The reports, sourced from a Freedom of Information Act request, seem to show that Ms. Soubry, while a Conservative MP, hired her eldest daughter, Roma, to work in her Westminster office. The younger Ms. Soubry, a university student at the time, was supposed to work as a researcher for her mother and received more than 1,000 pounds a month from October 2015 to May 2017. No records can be found, however, of any work the younger Ms. Soubry did in the Westminster office or in the MP's London constituency. The amount of the stipend also raised eyebrows by several Westminster watchers, who noted it is above the mid-range point for a staff member with a similar job description. Some are calling on the elder Ms. Soubry to stand down as leader of Change UK, while others believe an apology and the repayment of the stipends would be more appropriate. The elder Ms. Soubry and Change UK have not yet commented on the scandal.

[DKrol]

Turn Three
August 15 - August 21

Sky News, National Poll - August 15, 2019:

Labour: 26% (+4)
Conservatives 22% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 18% (-2)
BFP: 17%
Change UK: 13% (+2)
Green Party: 4% (+/-0)

Sky News, Scotland Poll - August 15, 2019:

SNP: 36% (+2)
Labour: 21% (+2)
Conservatives: 16% (-3)
Change UK: 10% (+2)
Liberal Democrats: 7% (-5)
Green Party: 7% (+1)
Other: 3%

Sky News, Wales Poll - August 15, 2019:

Conservatives: 26% (+/-0)
Liberal Democrats: 20% (-2)
Labour: 20% (+3)
Plaid Cymru: 14% (-3)
Change UK: 7% (+1)
BFP: 5%
Green Party: 4% (+/-0)
Other: 4%

Sky News, Northern Ireland Poll - August 15, 2019:

Sinn Fein: 46% (+5)
DUP: 20% (-8)
UUP: 14% (+2)
SDLP: 13% (+1)
Change UK: 3%
TUV: 2% (+1)
Other: 2%

Sky News, West Midlands Poll - August 15, 2019

Conservative Party - 27%
Liberal Democrats - 20%
Labour Party - 20%
BFP - 13%
Change UK - 10%
Greens - 5%
Other - 5%

Sky News, East Midlands Poll - August 15, 2019
Conservative Party - 30%
Liberal Democrats - 19%
BFP - 15%
Labour Party - 15%
Change UK - 14%
Greens - 3%
Other - 4%

Sky News, East of England Poll - August 15, 2019
Conservative Party - 25%
BFP - 23%
Liberal Democrats - 20%
Labour - 14%
Change UK - 5%
Greens - 5%
Other: 8%

Sky News, London Poll - August 15, 2019
Liberal Democrats - 30%
Change UK - 25%
Labour Party - 14%
Greens - 13%
Conservative Party - 12%
BFP - 4%
Other: 2%

Sky News, North West Poll - August 15, 2019
Labour Party - 25%
Conservative Party - 22%
Liberal Democrats - 21%
BFP - 11%
Change UK - 7%
Greens - 5%
Other: 9%

Sky News, Yorkshire and the Humber Poll - August 15, 2019
Labour Party - 27%
Conservative Party - 21%
Change UK - 18%
BFP - 15%
Greens - 15%
Other: 4%

Sky News, South West Poll - August 15, 2019
Conservative Party - 35%
Liberal Democrats - 28%
Labour Party - 17%
BFP - 15%
Change UK - 3%
Other: 2%

Sky News, South East Poll - August 15, 2019
Conservative Party - 34%
Liberal Democrats - 20%
Greens - 17%
BFP - 15%
Labour Party - 10%
Change UK - 3%
Other: 1%

Sky News, North East Poll - August 15, 2019
Labour - 27%
Conservatives - 25%
Liberal Democrats - 14%
BFP - 13%
Change UK - 11%
Greens - 7%
Other: 3%

From the GM
1. This turn will last for five days, ending at 11:59 PM on Wednesday, July 17.
2. There is no debate this turn, and regional lists are in. Feel free to post interviews or other RP-type things to spice up the turn. The quality and content of schedules will weigh heavily this turn.

[DKrol]

State of the General Election
The Sunday Times Staff

According to the most recent polls, no party come close to securing a majority in Westminster. To an extent, that's what we've come to expect from the proportional, party-list system implemented in 2012. But few expected to see a projection for a Parliament as diverse and broad in spectrum as the one that is project now. No party would claim above 200 seats, assuming the polls are accurate, if the election was held tomorrow. Considering that, prior to 2010, there had not been a coalition government since the Second World War, many find that both fascinating and terrifying, unsure if such a grand coalition could be worked out without a pressing, World War-level crisis. It is not of use to speculate if a Government can be formed or how it will happen, because both of those are several weeks in the future. It is more important to understand how we got there, and how the campaign has brought us to this point. It makes sense to begin with the Prime Minister.

David Cameron has led the Tories in a fairly standard campaign. The Conservatives are playing to their strengths: the East Midlands, the East of England, and the South East. While the messaging has been cookie-cutter, the locations Cameron has brought the messaging have not been. He's visited Sunderland, Birmingham, Manchester, and Liverpool - all traditional, working class, Labour-voting areas. He's trying to expand the Tory campaign, but he hasn't changed the language or the policies to do so with great success. In the Leaders' Debate, Cameron's refusal to even acknowledge the possibility of reforming the House of Lords showed this clearly. The people want to see a Prime Minister who is open to new ways of thinking about issues, especially as the nation grapples with the idea of life outside of the European Union, and they don't know if they're seeing that in David Cameron and another term as Conservative leadership.

As Opposition Leader, Jo Swinson has done a fine job. She's held Cameron's feet to the fire at PMQs, she's built a smart frontbench team, and she's handled the media with poise. But the minutes the lights of the election went on, she started to melt. The Liberal Democrats, a party on the ascendency, have been stuck and started to slide on Swinson's campaign. She's struggled with presenting strong policies she would actually implement as Prime Minister and, perhaps worse, she's had more trouble explaining those policies to the people. The election isn't over for the Liberal Democrats, not by a long shot, but they've got to hone in the messaging if they're going to stave off the return of Labour and the rise of both the Greens and Change UK.

The election of Alistair Darling as Labour Leader had some activists furious that a return to the Tony Blair and Gordon Brown branch of the party had begun. But since the campaign's started, Darling has done a decent job of bringing in the radical leftists who propelled John McDonnell to Number 10 and Jeremy Corbyn to Number 11 without throwing away his own base. Labour is not going to be able to return to their success of 1997, not under the party-list system, but they're making a comeback. Darling has done well to make inroads in Scotland, the North East, and the North West, all places they'll need to find success if they want to return to their place as the largest party on the left in Parliament. Darling needs to focus in on his schedule more, however, to ensure their success in the polls is translated into MPs. He can't keep up a schedule that starts the day in Durham, stops in Cardiff, and ends in Edinburgh. He will kill himself from stress and exhaustion on the trail.

Paul Nuttall and the British Freedom Party are still almost an unknown entity. People voted for Brexit and they're mad it has not been implemented yet, at least in some parts of the country, and that is fueling the BFP's early signs of success. While they are not leading in any region, they don't need to under the party-list system. They're set up to be the fourth largest party in the next Parliament if the election were held tomorrow. By absorbing UKIP's established infrastructure, Nuttall is set up for success, if he can unify the Leave-voting members of Remain-supporting parties. Nuttall has done a good job of spreading the campaign load across his surrogates and they're talking the way they need to talk to win over voters who support their basic message: leave the European Union as soon as possible. The question is if there are enough voters who support that message strongly enough to put Nuttall into Government.

Change UK is in an uncomfortable place. They've done well in the most recent polls but that's despite Anna Soubry's leadership, not because of it. Despite ticking all the boxes in the first week of the campaign, she's come under a lot of fire in the second. Largely because of the revelation that her daughter was paid as a researcher despite no records being kept of Roma Soubry working for her mother, Anna Soubry has been received poorly on the campaign trail this week. The decision of some local supporters to use the phrase "B*llocks to Brexit" has also been perceived very poorly, with many who heard it believing it made the party seem amateur and childish. This is especially clear in the South East, a region where the Change UK message should be received well but the party is polling below the seat-allocation threshold. The policies that Change UK are supporting are backed by a solid chunk of the population, the only problem is they're competing for voters with the Liberal Democrats, Labour, and the Greens. Soubry needs to come out swinging in the next week and get her party back on track or else they'll be remembered only in passing as a temporary flare-up.

Nicola Sturgeon, who is being hailed as the winner of the Leaders' Debate, has a strong record to run on in Scotland. Her tenure as First Minister has largely been a success in many Scottish eyes. The struggle of Sturgeon is the party-list system. There are only so many people in Scotland who believe in independence, and even fewer who are comfortable using their only vote at the ballot box for the issue. The people of Scotland are still affected by housing, and tax, and security, and energy costs. Some are worried if they voted for the SNP they are only voting for independence and that their other worries may be left aside. Sturgeon will need to work to combat that idea on the campaign trail.

In Wales, Plaid Cymru is polling fourth. Under Adam Price's leadership, they're set to gain one seat from the 2014 results, but they could be doing so much better. Price has fumbled the campaign kick off. His policies aren't sharp and clear; voters aren't even sure his position on Welsh independence after the Leaders' Debate. His schedules have been fine, but Plaid activists are worried that Price isn't going to excite nontraditional Plaid voters and increase their vote total at the ballot box. Price isn't growing the party, but he's not killing it. In order to find success, Price and Plaid need to sharpen up their image, clarify their positions, and bring their message to all corners of Wales.

Northern Ireland is a mess. As far as anyone can tell, the Democratic Unionist Party has closed up shop. Arlene Foster hasn't been seen in public in weeks, no one has campaigned for the party this election, and the DUP failed to publish a list of candidates for Northern Ireland's 18 seats. This has led to a massive surge in support for Sinn Fein, as well as the other Unionist parties, through no real effort of Mary Lou McDonald. The appearance of Anna Soubry and the Change UK team in Northern Ireland could cause a stir, but it is too early to tell at this point. The complete disappearance of the second largest party in the region is clearly the bigger story here. What it means for the peace in Northern Ireand also remains to be seen.

[DKrol]

MLB Looks to London for Future
The Independent Staff

After the widely heralded success of the MLB's London series earlier this summer, America's game may be coming to Britain for good. Sources in New York City have told The Independent that Major League Baseball's Commissioner, Robert Manfred, is looking at London as the future home of a Major League Baseball franchise. Manfred, reportedly, was very pleased with the result of the Red Sox-Yankees two-game series at the end of June and has begun to reach out to potential ownership groups for a team based in the capital. No concrete terms have been discussed, but there is a rumor that Tony Bloom, owner of Brighton and Hove Albion, has been linked to the potential team. A major factor in MLB's decision-making process, it is believed, will be the receptiveness of the British Government to financing for a stadium and for tax easements as the team builds its roots.

Soubry Finds Relief - Daughter's Work Found
The Times Staff

Change UK Leader Anna Soubry has breathed a sigh of relief in the probe into her daughter, Roma's, work in her office as a researcher. Investigators were able to find several documents that the younger Ms. Soubry produced during the time frame involved that proved she actually provided services for her mother. The only critique left, according to Mr. Gilbert Southerly, the lead investigator, is the amount paid to the younger Ms. Soubry. 1,000 pounds per month is in the higher third of salaries for such positions in Westminster and there are allegations that the elder Ms. Soubry inflated her daughter's salary because of their relationship.

Liberal Democrats Endorsed by FBU
The Metro Staff

Jo Swinson received a boost to her lagging campaign today. The Fire Brigades Union, a large union of firefighters and emergency response staff, endorsed the Liberal Democrats today after endorsing the Labour Party in every election since the union was founded in 1918. The chairman of the union highlighted Swinson's opposition to austerity measures and knocked Alistair Darling for his record as Chancellor under Gordon Brown. The FBU reports a membership of over 45,000.

[DKrol]

Turn Four
August 22 - August 28

Sky News, National Poll - August 22, 2019:

Labour: 29% (+3)
Conservatives 24% (+2)
Change UK: 15% (+2)
Liberal Democrats: 14% (-4)
BFP: 14% (-3)
Green Party: 4% (+/-0)

Sky News, Scotland Poll - August 22, 2019:

SNP: 34% (-2)
Labour: 22% (+1)
Conservatives: 18% (+2)
Green Party: 10% (+3)
Change UK: 7% (-3)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
Other: 4%

Sky News, Wales Poll - August 22, 2019:

Conservatives: 23% (-3)
Labour: 23% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 17% (-3)
Plaid Cymru: 9% (-5)
BFP: 7% (+2)
Green Party: 6% (+2)
Change UK: 5% (-2)
Other: 10%

Sky News, Northern Ireland Poll - August 22, 2019:

Sinn Fein: 47% (+1)
UUP: 20% (+6)
SDLP: 16% (+3)
TUV: 7% (+5)
Change UK: 4% (+1)
Other: 6%

Sky News, West Midlands Poll - August 22, 2019

Conservative Party - 28% (+1)
Labour Party - 24% (+4)
BFP - 16% (+3)
Liberal Democrats - 15% (-5)
Change UK - 13% (+3)
Other - 4%

Sky News, East Midlands Poll - August 22, 2019
Conservative Party -27% (-3)
BFP - 20% (+5)
Labour Party - 17% (+3)
Change UK - 16% (+2)
Liberal Democrats - 13% (-6)
Other - 7%

Sky News, East of England Poll - August 22, 2019
BFP - 26% (+3)
Conservative Party - 23% (-2)
Labour - 21% (+7)
Liberal Democrats - 13% (-7)
Change UK - 12% (+7)
Other: 5%

Sky News, London Poll - August 22, 2019
Change UK - 30% (+5)
Labour Party - 24% (+10)
Greens - 15% (+2)
Conservative Party - 14% (+2)
Liberal Democrats - 13% (-17)
BFP - 2% (-2)
Other: 2%

Sky News, North West Poll - August 22, 2019
Labour Party - 28% (+3)
Conservative Party - 28% (+6)
Liberal Democrats - 16% (-6)
BFP - 13% (+2)
Change UK - 10% (+3)
Other: 5%

Sky News, Yorkshire and the Humber Poll - August 22, 2019
Labour Party - 26% (-1)
Conservative Party - 24% (+3)
Change UK - 16% (-2)
BFP - 16% (+1)
Greens - 15% (+2)
Other: 3%

Sky News, South West Poll - August 22, 2019
Conservative Party - 30% (-5)
Labour Party - 20% (+3)
Liberal Democrats - 18% (-10)
BFP - 14% (-1)
Change UK - 14% (+11)
Greens - 2%
Other: 2%

Sky News, South East Poll - August 22, 2019
Conservative Party - 35% (+1)
Greens - 15% (-2)
Labour Party - 15% (+5)
Liberal Democrats - 13% (-7)
BFP - 13% (-2)
Change UK - 7% (+4)
Other: 2%

Sky News, North East Poll - August 22, 2019
Labour - 31% (+4)
Conservatives - 27% (+2)
BFP - 17% (+4)
Change UK - 15% (+4)
Liberal Democrats - 6% (-8)
Other: 4%

From the GM

1, Turn Four will last for five days, and ending at 11:59 PM on Friday, July 26. There is not a debate this turn, so schedules, speeches, and RPing will weigh heavily.

[DKrol]

Greens Endorsed By Bring Back British Rail
Metro Staff

The pressure group Campaign to Bring Back British Rail has endorsed Caroline Lucas and the Green Party in the upcoming General Election, it was announced today. Bring Back British Rail's Chairman, Alan Blatt, announced the endorsement at a press conference held outside of Waterloo Station in London this afternoon. Blatt cited the Green Party's support for renationalizing rail service in the UK as the reason for the endorsement. Blatt also took aim at Labour Leader Alistair Darling who served as Transport Secretary from 2002 to 2006, attacking Darling's record in the office as "beholden to the tax monopoly" of private rail. The Campaign to Bring Back British Rail, founded in 2009, claims to have over 150,000 supporters across the country.

New Poll Finds Support for Lords Reform
Guardian Staff

A YouGov poll released yesterday finds significant support for reforming the House of Lords across the British public. The poll, in the field from August 20 to August 24, found that 67% of British residents support reforming the House of Lords in some way. Those 67%, however, are split on what type of reform they'd like to see. Of those supporting reform, 21% support the complete abolishment of the upper house, 18% want a house that is half elected, half appointed, 17% want to see a fully elected upper house, and the remaining 44% were either unsure of what type of reform they'd like or supported an "other" option. Most of the major parties have come out in favor of reforming the House of Lords, but it is unclear if a coalition government could agree to specific reforms.

Tory MP Hit with Expense Claims
Mirror Staff

Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leading Tory candidate in the South West, has been fined under the Parliamentary Standards Act of 2009 for failing to properly file expense claims. Investigators found Rees-Mogg purchased a series of landscape paintings for his Gournay Court estate in Somerset. The true cost of the paintings was over 800 pounds. Rees-Mogg's expense forms, however, only show two receipts for around 600 pounds. A spokesman for Rees-Mogg said that it was "a simple accounting error" that the arch-Brexiteer hopes to correct "with haste". A file has been given to the Crown Prosecution Service.

Swinson Attacked in Edinburgh
National Staff

As Opposition Leader Jo Swinson was arriving at the Edinburgh Waverly train station to travel to London, a man rushed at her and threw what is reported to be a milkshake. The milkshake, which has become a frequent tool for attacking fascists and neo-nazis, struck the Liberal Democrats' leader in her left shoulder before spilling down her back. The man, identified as Josh Dunn, released a statement via his lawyer, saying that he threw the milkshake "because [Swinson] has let down the people". Dunn, 29, is a resident of Aberdeen and attends the University of Edinburgh. He has been charged in connection to the incident. Swinson was rushed into the station by her security detail. A Liberal Democrats spokesman said Swinson was "fine" but "a bit shaken" from the incident.

[DKrol]

Turn Five
August 29 - September 4

Sky News, National Poll - August 29, 2019:

Labour: 26% (-3)
Conservatives 25% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 16% (+2)
Change UK: 14% (-1)
BFP: 13% (-1)
Green Party: 6% (+2)

Sky News, Scotland Poll - August 29, 2019:

SNP: 36% (+2)
Conservatives: 20% (+2)
Labour: 18% (-4)
Green Party: 12% (+2)
Change UK: 6% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1)
Other: 4%

Sky News, Wales Poll - August 29, 2019:

Conservatives: 24% (+1)
Labour: 20% (-3)
Liberal Democrats: 19% (+2)
Plaid Cymru: 4% (-5)
Green Party: 12% (+6)
Change UK: 10% (+5)
BFP: 5% (-2)
Other: 6%

Sky News, Northern Ireland Poll - August 29, 2019:

Sinn Fein: 42% (-5)
UUP: 18% (-2)
SDLP: 17% (+1)
Change UK: 12% (+8)
TUV: 9% (+2)
Other: 2%

Sky News, West Midlands Poll - August 29, 2019

Conservative Party - 30% (+2)
Labour Party - 22% (-2)
Liberal Democrats - 17% (+2)
BFP - 14% (-2)
Change UK - 15% (+2)
Other - 1%

Sky News, East Midlands Poll - August 29, 2019
Conservative Party - 23% (-4)
BFP - 22% (+2)
Change UK - 17% (+1)
Labour Party - 16% (-1)
Liberal Democrats - 17% (+4)
Other - 4%

Sky News, East of England Poll - August 29, 2019
BFP - 26% (+/-0)
Conservative Party - 21% (-2)
Labour - 18% (-2)
Liberal Democrats - 16% (+3)
Change UK - 14% (+2)
Other - 2%

Sky News, London Poll - August 29, 2019
Change UK - 26% (-4)
Labour Party - 19% (-5)
Liberal Democrats - 18% (+5)
Greens - 17% (+2)
Conservative Party - 17% (+3)
BFP - 2% (+/-0)
Other: 1%

Sky News, North West Poll - August 29, 2019
Conservative Party - 30% (+2)
Labour Party - 25% (-3)
Liberal Democrats - 18% (+2)
BFP - 18% (+5)
Change UK - 7% (-3)
Other: 2%

Sky News, Yorkshire and the Humber Poll - August 29, 2019
Labour Party - 24% (-2)
Conservative Party - 24% (+/-0)
Change UK - 19% (+3)
Greens - 17% (+2)
BFP - 15% (-1)
Other: 1%

Sky News, South West Poll - August 29, 2019
Conservative Party - 27% (-3)
Liberal Democrats - 22% (+4)
Labour Party - 17% (-3)
BFP - 13% (-1)
Change UK - 12% (-2)
Greens - 5% (+3)
Other: 1%

Sky News, South East Poll - August 29, 2019
Conservative Party - 37% (+2)
Liberal Democrats - 17% (+4)
BFP - 15% (+2)
Labour Party - 12% (-3)
Change UK - 11% (+4)
Greens - 7% (-8)
Other: 1%

Sky News, North East Poll - August 29, 2019
Labour - 29% (-2)
Conservatives - 29% (+2)
Change UK - 16% (+1)
BFP - 13% (-4)
Liberal Democrats - 10% (+4)
Other: 3%

[DKrol]

Turn Six
September 5 - September 11

Sky News, National Poll - September 5, 2019:

Labour: 28% (+2)
Liberal Democrats: 20% (+4)
Conservatives 17% (-8)
Change UK: 17% (+3)
BFP: 11% (-2)
Green Party: 7% (+1)

Sky News, Scotland Poll - September 5, 2019:

SNP: 36% (+/-0)
Labour: 19% (+1)
Conservatives: 16% (-4)
Green Party: 14% (+2)
Liberal Democrats: 10% (+6)
Change UK: 5% (-1)

Sky News, Wales Poll - September 5, 2019:

Liberal Democrats: 25% (+6)
Labour: 22% (+2)
Conservatives: 20% (-4)
Green Party: 14% (+2)
Change UK: 13% (+3)
BFP: 4% (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 2% (-2)

Sky News, Northern Ireland Poll - September 5, 2019:

Sinn Fein: 45% (+3)
UUP: 21% (+3)
SDLP: 15% (-2)
TUV: 14% (+5)
Change UK: 5% (-7)

Sky News, West Midlands Poll - September 5, 2019

Conservative Party - 30% (+/-0)
Labour Party - 23% (+1)
Liberal Democrats - 18% (+1)
BFP - 16% (+2)
Change UK - 13% (-2)

Sky News, East Midlands Poll - September 5, 2019
Conservative Party - 25% (+2)
BFP - 25% (+3)
Liberal Democrats - 20% (+3)
Labour Party - 17% (+1)
Change UK - 13% (-2)

Sky News, East of England Poll - September 5, 2019
BFP - 23% (-3)
Labour - 21% (+3)
Conservative Party - 19% (-2)
Liberal Democrats - 19% (+3)
Change UK - 18% (+4)

Sky News, London Poll - September 5, 2019
Change UK - 27% (+1)
Labour Party - 22% (+3)
Liberal Democrats - 21% (+3)
Greens - 16% (-1)
Conservative Party - 14% (-3)
BFP - 0% (-2)

Sky News, North West Poll - September 5, 2019
Labour Party - 30% (+5)
Conservative Party - 23% (-7)
Liberal Democrats - 22% (+4)
BFP - 15% (-3)
Change UK - 10% (+3)

Sky News, Yorkshire and the Humber Poll - September 5, 2019
Labour Party - 26% (+2)
Conservative Party - 26% (+2)
BFP - 17% (+2)
Change UK - 16% (-3)
Greens - 15% (-2)

Sky News, South West Poll - September 5, 2019
Conservative Party - 29% (+2)
Liberal Democrats - 19% (-3)
Change UK - 19% (+7)
Labour Party - 16% (-1)
BFP - 12% (-1)
Greens - 5% (+/-0)

Sky News, South East Poll - September 5, 2019
Conservative Party - 33% (-4)
Liberal Democrats - 20% (+3)
Labour Party - 14% (+2)
BFP - 11% (-4)
Change UK - 11% (+4)
Greens - 11% (+4)

Sky News, North East Poll - September 5, 2019
Labour - 34% (+5)
Liberal Democrats - 20% (+10)
Conservatives - 18% (-11)
Change UK - 18% (+2)
BFP - 10% (-3)

From the GM
1. This turn will end at 11:59 PM on Sunday, August 25. This will be a hard end time, so I can have time to prepare the Election Day posts.
2. Party Leaders are encouraged to post a party political broadcast this turn. This is a five-minute television advertisement that will air on the BBC on the day before the election.
3. This turn is your final chance to speak to the voters before they go to the polls. Make it count.

[DKrol]

Election Night 2019

Exit poll indicates strong support for Irish language
Source: RTE

Adam Boulton: Welcome to Sky News' coverage of Election Night 2019. I am Adam Boulton. Across the country, we have dozens of reporters at the counts, with the leaders, and in Westminster. We'll be with you through it all, bringing you every update as it comes in and keeping you informed on the results of this monumental election.

As the clock strikes 10 o'clock, we can now release the Exit Poll. This Exit Poll was conducted by Ipsos Mori for the BBC, Sky, and ITV. This poll is of voters as they left the polling locations so it is the most accurate idea we can have of how tonight's results will turn out. Here it is:

2019 Exit Poll
Conservatives: 160 MPs
Labour: 155 MPs
Liberal Democrats: 100 MPs
Change UK: 98 MPs
British Freedom Party: 57 MPs
Greens: 37 MPs
Scottish National Party: 24 MPs
Sinn Fein: 8 MPs
Ulster Unionist Party: 4 MPs
Social Democratic and Labour Party: 3 MPs
Traditional Unionist Voice: 2 MPs
Plaid Cymru: 2 MPs

Boulton: The most hung of hung parliaments. The Conservatives would be the largest party, but only by five seats, and still well short of a majority. The Exit Poll also suggests a good night for Labour, as they regain their losses of the last two elections and resume their place as the largest party on the left. This is all, of course, if the Exit Poll holds true. Only time will tell on that.

The first results are expected in about an hours time from the North East. Until then, let's check in with...

[DKrol]

11:06 PM

Boulton: We're going to the count in Newcastle for the North East.

North East Results
Labour - 37%, 11 MPs
Conservatives - 23%, 7 MPs
Liberal Democrats - 18%, 5 MPs
Change UK - 15%, 4 MPs
BFP - 7%, 2 MPs

Boulton: A traditional Labour stronghold has come in solidly red. Compared to the most recent polls, Labour outperformed the expectations just a bit, but the real surprise is from the Conservatives. The last poll had the Tories down at 18%. The results show a 5% swing towards the Tories from the last poll. The Liberal Democrats are not off to the start they were hoping for, coming in third with 18% and 5 MPs. Change UK, on 15%, pick up 4 MPs and the BFP, on 7%, pick up just 2 MPs. Beth Rigby, your thoughts on this early result?

Beth Rigby: What this is showing is a return to normal voting patterns, at least in the North East. In 2014, the Tories actually came out on top with 15 MPs in this region. It shocked us all at the time. Now, I think, we're seeing the North East realign with Labour, as it was a solidly Labour area before the switch to the proportional system.

Boulton: We've got more results coming in, from Cardiff for the Welsh Region.

Sky News, Wales Results
Conservatives: 26%, 12 MPs
Labour: 22%, 9 MPs
Liberal Democrats: 20%, 8 MPs
Green Party: 12%, 5 MPs
Change UK: 10%, 4 MPs
BFP: 6%, 2 MPs
Plaid Cymru: 4%, 0 MPs

Boulton: The Conservatives have taken Wales with 12 MPs, followed by Labour with 9 and the Liberal Democrats with 8. Lewis Goodall, your thoughts?

Lewis Goodall: I think the Exit Poll may have underestimated the Tory vote, Adam. In these first two results, we've seen the Conservatives outpacing the most recent polls. Not by much, Adam, but by, you know, enough to suggest David Cameron may remain in Number 10 as the sun comes up. This looks like a victory for the Conservatives under the proportional system since, under the old system, they never held more than 14 Welsh seats. Also worth noting: The BFP outperformed the last poll in Wales and surpassed the seat threshold.

Boulton: Running along the bottom of your screen now is a ticker with the live updates on the number of MPs at this hour. If we look at it, we will see:

RESULTS: LABOUR: 20 MPs CONSERVATIVE: 19 MPs LIBERAL DEMOCRAT: 13 MPs CHANGE UK: 8 MPs GREEN: 5 MPs BRITISH FREEDOM PARTY: 4 MPs
Boulton: We will be back after this. We're hearing the next result will be from Edinburgh.

[DKrol]

12:31 AM

Boulton: We were going to go to Edinburgh for the Scottish results, but we're being told that the South East results are in and we will want to see them. Here they are, from Southampton.

South East Results
Conservative Party - 30%, 26 MPs
Labour Party - 18%, 16 MPs
Liberal Democrats - 17%, 15 MPs
Change UK - 15%, 13 MPs
BFP - 11%, 10 MPs
Wessex Regionalists - 5%, 4 MPs
Greens - 4%, 0 MPs

Boulton: Absolutely shocking result from the South East. The Wessex Regionalist Party, a party that last reported a membership of 12 in 2016, has surpassed the seat threshold and will seat four MPs by nature of the sheer volume of MPs in the region. Pushing down the Green vote to below 5% means Caroline Lucas has lost her seat. I'm stunned, really. Beth?

Rigby: Yeah, Adam. I'm shocked as well. Noticing here that the BFP and Change UK also did fairly well, picking up 10 MPs and 13 MPs, maybe there's an indication that folks in the South East are feeling left behind by mainstream politics?

Goodall: But we didn't see that in Wales. Plaid failed to pick up a seat.

Rigby: I don't really know what else to attribute it to. I mean, did the Wessex Regionalists even put forward a list? Does it have four candidates on it?

Boulton: I don't...

Goodall: Yep. I've got it here, from the Leader of the Party, Jim Gunter. Their list had exactly four candidates on it so, I guess, there ya go. We'll have to watch for similar results from regionalist and minor parties as voters expression their frustration with the status quo.

Boulton: From one regionalist success to what could potentially be another. Up to Edinburgh for the Scottish results.

Scotland Results
SNP: 42%, 25 MPs
Labour: 14%, 8 MPs
Conservatives: 14%, 8 MPs
Liberal Democrats: 13%, 8 MPs
Green Party: 10%, 6 MPs
Change UK: 7%, 4 MPs

Boulton: A good night for Nicola Sturgeon up North then. Claiming 25 of the 59 MPs for the SNP has to have them popping champagne. Lewis, they've got to go for an independence referendum now, haven't they?

Goodall: If the parties in Westminister don't see this result as a mandate to hold a referendum, I think we'd be facing a constitutional crisis, I really do. Nicola Sturgeon has won just shy of 50% of the vote in Scotland. None of the other parties are even close!

Rigby: I'd be very upset if I were Alistair Darling. Falling below 20% in his home country has got to hurt. He made it such a big part of his campaign and it just didn't work out. Voters, clearly, did not see him as representative of their wants and needs. Ruth Davidson, also, must be in shock now. Over the last few elections, the Scottish Conservatives have done well to fight their way up and now, really, that's done.

Boulton: In Scotland, the SNP are up 6 seats, Labour are down 6, Tories are down 5, and the Liberal Democrats down 2. The Greens gained 5 MPs and Change UK have elected their first 4 Scottish MPs.

RESULTS: CONSERVATIVE: 53 MPs LABOUR: 44 MPs LIBERAL DEMOCRAT: 36 MPs CHANGE UK: 25 MPs GREEN: 11 MPs BRITISH FREEDOM PARTY: 14 MPs WESSEX REGIONALISTS: 4 MPs

[DKrol]

12:58 AM

Boulton: We've had more results come in over the break, from London, Nottingham, and Birmingham. Here they are.

London Results
Labour Party - 26%, 21 MPs
Change UK - 24%, 19 MPs
Liberal Democrats - 18%, 15 MPs
Conservative Party - 16%, 13 MPs
Greens - 14%, 12 MPs
BFP - 2%, 0 MPs

East Midlands Results
Conservative Party - 25%, 12 MPs
Liberal Democrats - 22%, 10 MPs
BFP - 20%, 9 MPs
Change UK - 17%, 8 MPs
Labour Party - 16%, 7 MPs

West Midlands Results
Labour Party - 29%, 18 MPs
Conservative Party - 24%, 15 MPs
BFP - 19%, 12 MPs
Liberal Democrats - 17%, 10 MPs
Change UK - 7%, 4 MPs
English Democrats Party - 4%

Boulton: Results coming in quickly now. Let's take a moment to talk about these three results here. In London, Change UK drop from the top spot, ceding it to Labour, while the Tories don't do as bad as some had expected, only losing three MPs from 2014. Early on in this campaign, some projections had the Tories being wiped out in London.

Rigby: It's the City of London that has saved them, I think, Adam. They had a strong showing from the folks who work in the financial sector. Bad showing for the Greens, though. They needed closer to 20 MPs from London in order to meet their goals. Doesn't look good for Caroline Lucas as Leader going forward.

Boulton: In the East Midlands, the Conservatives stick to their poll numbers. In the last poll, they were at 25% and that's what they got tonight, although they've lost a large number of their MPs from the region. The shocker here is that the Liberal Democrats pulled into second, just ahead of the BFP. Change UK also beat out Labour for fourth place, although it was only by a few hundred votes when you look at the raw numbers.

Goodall: Better than what Anna Soubry was probably expecting, worse than the Conservatives were dreaming of, and a surprise for Alistair Darling to be down in last place. This was a region where Labour thought they might be third during the campaign but it's not a bad number: they've gained six MPs from 2014.

Boulton: Lastly, the West Midlands. In 2014 this was Tory Blue, with them winning 31 seats. Tonight, they've lost the top spot to Labour, albeit it not by much, and they've lost over half their MPs for the regions. The BFP may have absorbed some of the Tory votes in the region as they gain a few MPs.

Rigby: We see the English Democrats making a strong showing here, almost mirroring the Wessex Regionalists, but falling just short of the seat threshold. We're seeing results that clearly indicate unhappiness with the status quo. If they could set their ideological differences apart, I think, at the end of the night, the BFP, Change UK, the Greens, SNP, the Wessex Regionalists, and whatever ends up happening in Northern Ireland could probably form a Government.

Goodall: I don't know about that, Beth. That's a bold claim.

Boulton: At this hour, here is how Parliament stands:

State of Parliament, as of 1 AM
Conservatives: 93 MPs
Labour: 90 MPs
Liberal Democrats: 71 MPs
Change UK: 56 MPs
British Freedom Party: 35 MPs
Scottish National Party: 25 MPs
Greens: 23 MPs
Wessex Regionalists: 4 MPs

[DKrol]

1:30 AM

Boulton: We're going up to Peterborough for the East of England result.

East of England Results
BFP - 25%, 13 MPs
Conservative Party - 23%, 11 MPs
Labour - 20%, 10 MPs
Liberal Democrats - 17%, 8 MPs
Change UK - 15%, 8 MPs

Rigby: The BFP come out on top of their first region and get their highest vote total of the night. We've expected this for most of the campaign. East of England is a very conservative region. The fact that the BFP narrowly pulled ahead of the Tories in the region should set off some alarm bells at CCHQ about the party's Brexit message, but overall not a bad result for the Prime Minister.

Goodall: I think Paul Nuttall is lucky to come out on tops here. I've heard from some voters on the ground who were confused by the BFP's party political broadcast, which never mentioned the name of the party or directed voters to cast their ballot papers for the party. If their ad had been stronger, the BFP might have been looking at 35% to 40% of the vote in the East of England.

Boulton: And up to Leeds for the Yorkshire and the Humber count.

Yorkshire and the Humber Results
Labour Party - 34%, 19 MPs
Conservative Party - 20%, 11 MPs
BFP - 20%, 11 MPs
Change UK - 15%, 8 MPs
Greens - 11%, 6 MPs

Boulton: Did we get that right? Labour smashing the Tories in Yorkshire and the Humber and securing a thorough margin of victory. Wow.

Goodall: I think this is a result of vote splitting. The Liberal Democrats chose not to contest the region, allowing Labour to consolidate much of the vote on the left. Meanwhile, the Conservatives and the BFP split 40% of the vote. The Tories had to fight for every voter from the BFP, while Labour just didn't have that fight with the Liberal Democrats.

Rigby: I think Lewis is making a good point there, Adam. The Liberal Democrats did not contest every region this election. If Labour comes out on top, they've got the Lib Dems to thank for it.

Boulton: We're going to Manchester for the result in the North West.

North West Result
Labour Party - 31%, 23 MPs
Conservative Party - 30%, 22 MPs
BFP - 17%, 12 MPs
Liberal Democrats - 12%, 10 MPs
Change UK - 10%, 6 MPs

Boulton: I think we've got a break in the results here, so why don't we take a second to talk about these results from the North West. Beth?

Rigby: This is a big, MP-rich region, Adam, and David Cameron saw that. Throughout the campaign, he made stops in Liverpool, in Manchester, in those areas that are traditionally Labour's strength. He didn't swing the needle dramatically, but he didn't need to. Cameron pulled just about every MP he could out of the North West with the BFP being on the ballot. Again, we keep coming back to it, if the BFP weren't on the ballot, I think David Cameron would be looking at a comfortable majority government.

Goodall: I'm more interested in the poor showing for the Liberal Democrats. Jo Swinson didn't campaign in the region in the last week, despite having 75 MPs up for grabs. She came under fire on every front throughout much of the campaign, a lot of it being trained on her specifically. I've seen in polls that the Change UK party political broadcast, which massacred the other party leaders, really hurt Jo Swinson a lot when voters were asked how comfortable they were with Jo Swinson becoming Prime Minister.

Rigby: She had that great second debate but couldn't capitalize on it. I don't really think a lot of that was her fault, Adam. I think she was just facing an impossible wave of negative coverage and couldn't combat it.

Boulton: As we are approaching 3:00 AM, let's take a look at the State of Parliament. There are only two regions left to declare, the South West and Northern Ireland.

State of Parliament, as of 2:45 AM
Labour: 142 MPs
Conservatives: 137 MPs
Liberal Democrats: 89 MPs
Change UK: 78 MPs
British Freedom Party: 71 MPs
Greens: 29 MPs
Scottish National Party: 25 MPs
Wessex Regionalists: 4 MPs

[DKrol]

3:15 AM

Boulton: We're going to go to Kay Burley who is in Bristol at the South West county. Kay, what've you got for us?

Kay Burley: Hi, Adam. We're being told there is a recount on going here in Bristol because the numbers are very, very tight. A few hundred votes, we're told, are separating the first and second place parties in the South West. We haven't been told which parties are fighting for those top two spots.

Boulton: Interesting, Kay. Thank you.

Rigby: I'm a bit surprised, Adam. The South West has been solidly Conservative for a long time. If there's any kind of a fight going on down there, it can't be good news for the Prime Minister.

4:45 AM

Boulton: We've finally gotten the results from Bristol. Here they are.

South West Result
Labour Party - 23%, 13 MPs
Conservative Party - 23%, 13 MPs
BFP - 21%, 13 MPs
Liberal Democrats - 11%, 6 MPs
Change UK - 11%, 6 MPs
Greens - 10%, 6 MPs

Boulton: Wow. Absolutely shocking results from Bristol. Labour have squeaked into first place in the South West, normally a Tory safety net, by only a few hundred votes.

Rigby: It's because of the vote splitting with the BFP, Adam, it's got to be. If even half of the BFP's voters in the South West went to the Tories, David Cameron would be smiling and loving the results. But with Nuttall's party sucking up 21% of the vote, Alistair Darling has been able to pick up 13 much-need MPs in a region we were expecting him to only find 5 or 6.

Boulton: The South West was the last region in England, Scotland, or Wales to declare. Let's see where we stand at this moment.

State of Parliament, as of 5:00 AM
Labour: 155 MPs
Conservatives: 150 MPs
Liberal Democrats: 95 MPs
Change UK: 84 MPs
British Freedom Party: 84 MPs
Greens: 35 MPs
Scottish National Party: 25 MPs
Wessex Regionalists: 4 MPs

Boulton: That means that Alistair Darling has the largest group in Parliament after these elections. Legally, David Cameron will have the first right to attempt to negotiate a Government, but it looks unlikely that he could find 326 votes on a confidence motion. Wait a moment, the Northern Irish count is going on in Belfast, let's go there.

Northern Ireland Result
Sinn Fein: 38%, 7 MPs
UUP: 21%, 4 MPs
Change UK: 20%, 4 MPs
SDLP: 14%, 2 MPs
TUV: 7%, 1 MP

Boulton: With that, the final declaration of the United Kingdom's 2019 election, we've got the results. Let's put them on the screen now.

The 58th Parliament of the United Kingdom
Labour: 155 MPs
Conservatives: 150 MPs
Liberal Democrats: 95 MPs
Change UK: 88 MPs
British Freedom Party: 84 MPs
Greens: 35 MPs
Scottish National Party: 25 MPs
Sinn Fein: 7 MPs
Wessex Regionalists: 4 MPs
Ulster Unionist Party: 4 MPs
Social Democrat and Labour Party: 2 MPs
Tradional Unionist Voice: 1 MP

Rigby: By my math, it's nearly impossible for Cameron to get to 326, or even 319 if you assume the Sinn Fein MPs will abstain, or even 316 if you include the Speaker and his two deputies. Conservatives plus British Freedom Party plus Wessex Regionalists plus UUP and TUV only gets you to 243. Now, if Cameron can bring in Anna Soubry, then he gets to 331 and is safe and sound. But I don't know if Cameron and Soubry could agree to terms.

Goodall: There are more avenues for Labour. Labour with the Liberal Democrats alone is 250. Add in Change UK and that's 338. Leave out Change UK and add in the SNP, the Greens, the Wessex Regionalists, and SDLP and you're at 316, the absolute minimum to command a working majority.

Rigby: Another path to Government would be the Liberal Democrats with Change UK, BFP, Greens, SNP, Wessex Regionalists, UUP, SDLP, and TUV, which would be 338 MPs. I know that's unlikely given the ideologies, but it's an absolute majority for a Government.

Boulton: Earlier, Beth, you said that the BFP, Change UK, Greens, SNP, the Wessex Regionalists, and Northern Ireland could probably form a Government. Have you done the math there?

Rigby: Yeah, a bit short, Adam. 243 if you add them all up. A bit short, but a strong bloc of anti-establishment MPs.

Boulton: Alright, we will leave it there. Thank you and goodnight, from all of us at Sky's Election Night 2019.