More likely streak of 3 winning elections for prez?
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  More likely streak of 3 winning elections for prez?
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Question: -skip-
#1
GOP wins 2020 and 2024
 
#2
Dems win 2020, 2024 and 2028
 
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Author Topic: More likely streak of 3 winning elections for prez?  (Read 2701 times)
Sir Mohamed
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« on: July 04, 2019, 09:21:06 AM »

Which winning streak is more likely? 3 consecutive elections in a row won by one party barely happened in the past decades, last time was 1988, though 2000 and 2016 were close.

I just don't see the GOP winning both 2020 and 2024. Dems winning all 2020s elections is not too likely either, but could actually happening because of demographic changes.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2019, 10:03:11 AM »

WI: Dems win 2024, 2028, and 2032
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #2 on: July 04, 2019, 10:23:47 AM »

Definitely option 2. after 8 years of Trump there's virtually no chance a Republican wins in 2024.
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MarkD
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« Reply #3 on: July 04, 2019, 11:57:30 AM »

I vote for option 2, because I don't see Trump winning next year. I think he has hurt the GOP brand pretty badly.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #4 on: July 04, 2019, 12:25:28 PM »

WI: Dems Republicans win 2024, 2028, and 2032
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #5 on: July 04, 2019, 12:34:18 PM »


Lol sure
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #6 on: July 04, 2019, 12:34:34 PM »

Well, Republicans are currently 1/3 of  the way to winning three in a row

So I'd say they're more likely
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dw93
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« Reply #7 on: July 04, 2019, 01:47:30 PM »

While I'm not solidly in the "Demographics are Destiny" crowd, the Democrats are going to have the advantage in the long term, so with that in mind the Democrats are favored to have a three consecutive streak at the Presidency. If the Republicans do, a third consecutive win certainly isn't coming after two terms of Trump.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: July 04, 2019, 01:57:11 PM »


I think this is right.  Fundamentally, it depends on the timing of the next economic crash more than anything else (at this point, it's clear Trump isn't going to handicap himself/the GOP with Iraq War style foreign policy).   2025 or later = Option 1.  Before 2020 = Option 2.  After 2020 but before 2024 = Option 3.  Regarding Option 1, I also think Pence (by far the most likely 2024 GOP nominee if Trump is reelected) would lose Trump's EC advantage in a neutral year and just have a harder time in general with swing voters unless the economy is roaring. 
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President Johnson
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« Reply #9 on: July 04, 2019, 02:05:57 PM »

The second option is far more likely. In the possible but unlikely event Trump wins again, I expect 2024 a Democratic landslide at least as big 2008 (President Gretchen Whitmer?).

I think the 2020 might be a redux of 1980: Unpopular incumbent president who ran as an outsider last time gets ousted by his charismatic or elder challenger (Biden or Kamala?), though it won't be a ten point win or 489 electoral votes. The new president implements reforms that change America for decades and easily wins reelection to a second term over a party that has trouble to put together a winning coaltion. Even though the ecomony was laggering at some time, it is good enough for the sitting vice president, who is less inspiring, to win over another weak opponent. He or she gets unpopular over his/her term and in 2032 loses to a more moderate opposition. (Something similar also happend with Hoover/FDR/Truman/Ike).
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Orser67
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« Reply #10 on: July 04, 2019, 03:00:57 PM »

Normally I would be strongly inclined to with the idea of "2 is easier than 3", but

a)I think Trump is an underdog in 2020,
b)I have a hard imagining that a second-term Trump wouldn't be a huge weight on his party's chances in 2024, a la Bush in 2008,
c)Democrats seem to have a long-term advantage in presidential elections right now. Republicans may well have a small built-in advantage in the electoral college, but since 1992 Democrats have won three convincing victories and one medium-sized victory, while Republicans have won one medium-sized victory and two extremely close elections
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Medal506
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« Reply #11 on: July 04, 2019, 07:42:51 PM »

Between the two options, I would say option 1.
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Politician
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« Reply #12 on: July 04, 2019, 08:02:12 PM »

Option 2. If 2020 turns out to be like 1980 for the Democrats, then 2028 would likely be like 1988.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: July 05, 2019, 07:40:43 AM »

Dems, of course, Harris/Beto whom are Y2K generation can last til 2032. Election security bills will be eventually passed by the Dem Senate and lost would be the Kremlin and Koch Bros interference
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2019, 05:13:16 AM »

Argument for Republicans: They have won one election and have a good chance of winning reelection. Democrats have taken some unpopular positions (late-term abortion, support for increases in immigration) and the primaries are structured in a way that incentivizes bad habits. It is entirely possible Pence will be able to run as an incumbent.

Argument for Democrats: Trump says stupid things. The Democratic frontrunner probably won'r run for reelection at 82, meaning they might have a new nominee at a time when the party will historically do well, and be positioned to run an incumbent when going for a third term, where they are historically disadvantaged.
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Ilhan Apologist
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« Reply #15 on: July 17, 2019, 03:13:28 PM »


I mean, I wouldn't rule that out. Maybe the Democrat who defeats Trump has a Carter-like first term, and a Reasonable ModerateTM Republican wins in 2024.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #16 on: July 17, 2019, 03:44:01 PM »

Option 2 obviously being more likely is obvious.
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #17 on: July 17, 2019, 06:33:42 PM »

Neither
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #18 on: July 22, 2019, 05:00:18 AM »

I went with the Republicans, since that requires two elections to go their way, rather than three for Democrats.

Even if the Republicans' chances of winning individual elections is a bit lower, this more than evens the odds.
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