MO Gov Galloway in

[Ebsy]

Sifton announced he isn't going to challenge Galloway in the primary. I imagine he will probably run for AG.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I mean yeah, Parson will probably win, but I don’t buy that Republicans are guaranteed to win every statewide/Senate race in MO from now on after Democrats came within three points of winning a Senate race in 2016 and actually won a statewide race by 6 points in 2018. McCaskill did lose, but she’s always been an unpopular Senator and still did 12 points better than Clinton. Missouri is still way more Democratic-friendly downballot than Indiana.

From what I’ve heard from friends in Missouri, Parsons is pretty well-regarded though and don’t think a stronger than average Republican incumbent is gonna lose statewide in Missouri in 2020.  Democrats could obviously do a lot worse than Scott Sifton for MO AG (but I think he’s better off waiting to see what Wagner’s district looks like after redistricting and whether he lives in it, assuming she survives 2020), plus it wouldn’t be the worst idea to run a wave insurance candidate for Treasurer, but both of those row offices would still start out as Likely R.

[Ebsy]

As an actual Missourian who follows politics here very closely: a lot of people have no idea who the governor is, just that Greitens is gone and that pretty much everyone is happy about that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I mean yeah, Parson will probably win, but I don’t buy that Republicans are guaranteed to win every statewide/Senate race in MO from now on after Democrats came within three points of winning a Senate race in 2016 and actually won a statewide race by 6 points in 2018. McCaskill did lose, but she’s always been an unpopular Senator and still did 12 points better than Clinton. Missouri is still way more Democratic-friendly downballot than Indiana.

From what I’ve heard from friends in Missouri, Parsons is pretty well-regarded though and don’t think a stronger than average Republican incumbent is gonna lose statewide in Missouri in 2020.  Democrats could obviously do a lot worse than Scott Sifton for MO AG (but I think he’s better off waiting to see what Wagner’s district looks like after redistricting and whether he lives in it, assuming she survives 2020), plus it wouldn’t be the worst idea to run a wave insurance candidate for Treasurer, but both of those row offices would still start out as Likely R.

Also, unlike in 2018, females and blacks will come out more in the St Louis and KC suburbs.  This is a wave insurance election, but Kamala and Beto can energize independents.  Also, Parsons signed a very anti-abortion bill that will bring Dems home

[Sir Mohamed]

I mean yeah, Parson will probably win, but I don’t buy that Republicans are guaranteed to win every statewide/Senate race in MO from now on after Democrats came within three points of winning a Senate race in 2016 and actually won a statewide race by 6 points in 2018. McCaskill did lose, but she’s always been an unpopular Senator and still did 12 points better than Clinton. Missouri is still way more Democratic-friendly downballot than Indiana.

From what I’ve heard from friends in Missouri, Parsons is pretty well-regarded though and don’t think a stronger than average Republican incumbent is gonna lose statewide in Missouri in 2020.  Democrats could obviously do a lot worse than Scott Sifton for MO AG (but I think he’s better off waiting to see what Wagner’s district looks like after redistricting and whether he lives in it, assuming she survives 2020), plus it wouldn’t be the worst idea to run a wave insurance candidate for Treasurer, but both of those row offices would still start out as Likely R.

Also, unlike in 2018, females and blacks will come out more in the St Louis and KC suburbs.  This is a wave insurance election, but Kamala and Beto can energize independents.  Also, Parsons signed a very anti-abortion bill that will bring Dems home

Insinuating Kamala Harris would win MO or come close

[Frenchrepublican]

I mean yeah, Parson will probably win, but I don’t buy that Republicans are guaranteed to win every statewide/Senate race in MO from now on after Democrats came within three points of winning a Senate race in 2016 and actually won a statewide race by 6 points in 2018. McCaskill did lose, but she’s always been an unpopular Senator and still did 12 points better than Clinton. Missouri is still way more Democratic-friendly downballot than Indiana.

From what I’ve heard from friends in Missouri, Parsons is pretty well-regarded though and don’t think a stronger than average Republican incumbent is gonna lose statewide in Missouri in 2020.  Democrats could obviously do a lot worse than Scott Sifton for MO AG (but I think he’s better off waiting to see what Wagner’s district looks like after redistricting and whether he lives in it, assuming she survives 2020), plus it wouldn’t be the worst idea to run a wave insurance candidate for Treasurer, but both of those row offices would still start out as Likely R.

Also, unlike in 2018, females and blacks will come out more in the St Louis and KC suburbs.  This is a wave insurance election, but Kamala and Beto can energize independents.  Also, Parsons signed a very anti-abortion bill that will bring Dems home

Insinuating Kamala Harris would win MO or come close

And I doubt that abortion is a winning issue there

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I mean yeah, Parson will probably win, but I don’t buy that Republicans are guaranteed to win every statewide/Senate race in MO from now on after Democrats came within three points of winning a Senate race in 2016 and actually won a statewide race by 6 points in 2018. McCaskill did lose, but she’s always been an unpopular Senator and still did 12 points better than Clinton. Missouri is still way more Democratic-friendly downballot than Indiana.

From what I’ve heard from friends in Missouri, Parsons is pretty well-regarded though and don’t think a stronger than average Republican incumbent is gonna lose statewide in Missouri in 2020.  Democrats could obviously do a lot worse than Scott Sifton for MO AG (but I think he’s better off waiting to see what Wagner’s district looks like after redistricting and whether he lives in it, assuming she survives 2020), plus it wouldn’t be the worst idea to run a wave insurance candidate for Treasurer, but both of those row offices would still start out as Likely R.

Also, unlike in 2018, females and blacks will come out more in the St Louis and KC suburbs.  This is a wave insurance election, but Kamala and Beto can energize independents.  Also, Parsons signed a very anti-abortion bill that will bring Dems home

Insinuating Kamala Harris would win MO or come close

And I doubt that abortion is a winning issue there

Claire McCaskill won in a Prez 2012 year in a D+4 year, not D+9 year, over Akin, and abortion was a winning issue.

[Sir Mohamed]

I mean yeah, Parson will probably win, but I don’t buy that Republicans are guaranteed to win every statewide/Senate race in MO from now on after Democrats came within three points of winning a Senate race in 2016 and actually won a statewide race by 6 points in 2018. McCaskill did lose, but she’s always been an unpopular Senator and still did 12 points better than Clinton. Missouri is still way more Democratic-friendly downballot than Indiana.

From what I’ve heard from friends in Missouri, Parsons is pretty well-regarded though and don’t think a stronger than average Republican incumbent is gonna lose statewide in Missouri in 2020.  Democrats could obviously do a lot worse than Scott Sifton for MO AG (but I think he’s better off waiting to see what Wagner’s district looks like after redistricting and whether he lives in it, assuming she survives 2020), plus it wouldn’t be the worst idea to run a wave insurance candidate for Treasurer, but both of those row offices would still start out as Likely R.

Also, unlike in 2018, females and blacks will come out more in the St Louis and KC suburbs.  This is a wave insurance election, but Kamala and Beto can energize independents.  Also, Parsons signed a very anti-abortion bill that will bring Dems home

Insinuating Kamala Harris would win MO or come close

And I doubt that abortion is a winning issue there

Claire McCaskill won in a Prez 2012 year in a D+4 year, not D+9 year, over Akin, and abortion was a winning issue.

Parson so far didn't apologize rape, LOL. The political ladscape in 2012 was different from today or will be from 2020.

If MO was winnable in a D+4 year, why did McCaskill then lose in 2018 which was a D+9 year? The answer is simple: Dem support in rural areas, which are key in this state, has plummeted since and gains in subrubs aren't enough to make up here. MO-Gov 2020 is likely R at least. Parson also has the incumbency advantage. 2020 prez race is safe R no matter who the Dem nominee is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems do have an 11 point lead on Generic Ballot 48-39, if its a wave, MO gov is winnable, this is definitely a dark horse race, and a race to watch. MO, NC are the only two govs that will be winnable in 2020

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/nicolergalloway/status/1160863057100333056

It is now official.

Will likely be Galloway for Governor and Sifton for Attorney General.

We should keep in mind that Galloway won last year because her opponent was literally a crazy person. However, the Auditors race was very much over shadowed and Galloway's name ID was probably well below 30% prior to the last few weeks before the election.

So I will not count her out and believe she will run close but will probably not defeat Parson.

[SnowLabrador]

I really don't see Parson losing. If McCaskill lost by nearly six points even in a D+9 year, I don't see how Galloway can win in a year that's unlikely to be as D-friendly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really don't see Parson losing. If McCaskill lost by nearly six points even in a D+9 year, I don't see how Galloway can win in a year that's unlikely to be as D-friendly.

Parsons can lose, states like KS and MO can vote different ways in presidential campaigns than stateqide elections. Thats why Kelly won in 2018 and McCaskill won in 2012. Trump isnt carrying MO by 18, but 9, like Romney

[Continential]

She will do around what McCaskill did.

[Frenchrepublican]

She will do around what McCaskill did.

She will likely do worse

1. 2020 likely won’t be a D+9 year
2. Contrary to McCaskill, Galloway won’t have $40M to spend
3. Parson is a popular incumbent
4. Running on abortion is not a winning issue in MO
5. Trump will likely carry this state by +15 and will provide coattails to other conservative candidates

[President Johnson]

Endorsed.

But I doubt she makes it.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Well I guess this is a less futile challenge than Beshear’s inevitable loss to Bevin, but not by much.

Sifton running for AG would be stupid. MO-2 is much more winnable, particularly since Galloway has a good shot of carrying it in the gubernatorial race and providing him coattails there.

[Strong Candidate]

Yeah, Parson looks like he's pretty safe, but since this is a no-risk race where she doesn't have to give up her seat, I don't have any problem with her going for it

[Bidenworth2020]

Best possible recruit we could get probably. Still loses by around what Koster lost by, though keeping it that close will not come much from narrowing rurals like Koster did but rather a relatively uniform swing.

[jamestroll]

And of course no one even acknowledges that I stated that I do not believe Galloway will defeat Parson at this time. Though I will not dismiss the possibility.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Galloway would not have entered race if she didnt think she would win

[CookieDamage]

Likely R unfortunately let's hope Parson has a SERIOUS screw up or something awful about him comes out but I won't be holding my breath

[Frenchrepublican]

Best possible recruit we could get probably. Still loses by around what Koster lost by, though keeping it that close will not come much from narrowing rurals like Koster did but rather a relatively uniform swing.

Lol. No

It will be very likely a double digits loss for her.

If the election was now, I would say
Parson : 56%
Galloway : 42%

[Bidenworth2020]

Best possible recruit we could get probably. Still loses by around what Koster lost by, though keeping it that close will not come much from narrowing rurals like Koster did but rather a relatively uniform swing.

Lol. No

It will be very likely a double digits loss for her.

Remember that she still managed to win by 6  despite Claire losing by 6, an impressive feat in thesecpartisan times.

[Frenchrepublican]

Best possible recruit we could get probably. Still loses by around what Koster lost by, though keeping it that close will not come much from narrowing rurals like Koster did but rather a relatively uniform swing.

Lol. No

It will be very likely a double digits loss for her.

Remember that she still managed to win by 6  despite Claire losing by 6, an impressive feat in thesecpartisan times.

Sure, but have you seen who was her opponent ? Parson is a popular incumbent and MO is a conservative state, I don’t really see how he can be vulnerable unless some scandals emerge

[Donerail]

Remember that she still managed to win by 6  despite Claire losing by 6, an impressive feat in thesecpartisan times.

Sure, but have you seen who was her opponent ? Parson is a popular incumbent and MO is a conservative state, I don’t really see how he can be vulnerable unless some scandals emerge

Do you think anyone in Missouri did?